North Texas at Texas State
Scheduled matchup · saved model output · projection basis: Current SP+ (captured 2026-09-17). The home win estimate is a logistic conversion of the projected margin, not an independently fitted win-probability forecast. Its conversion scale was calibrated on the 2025 model’s historical games. Market lines may have moved since this snapshot. Return to this week.
Model vs market
Pick status
NO PICK — below threshold
LINE MOVEMENT (HOME SPREAD, OPEN → CLOSE)
DraftKings -3 → -3 · total 63.5 → 63.5
Bovada -3 → -3 · total 63.5 → 63
Descriptive only. Across 3,306 games (2016–2025), betting the side the line moved toward hit 50.5% at the close — movement is already priced in by kickoff.
Texas State
NET RATING -0.1 · 2 rated weeks · Pac-12
North Texas
NET RATING +0.0 · 2 rated weeks · American Athletic
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.