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Texas State

2026 season

Pac-12
2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Texas State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 63.5 across 8 systems; best 46, worst 72, so they disagree by 26 places.

Lab EPA
#65
Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS
#59
down 42026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+
#65
down 32026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo
#57
no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI
#72
down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE
#62
down 18 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS
#46
down 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA
#65
down 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record
#73 of 138
Schedule strength
#71 of 138
Remaining schedule strength
#66 of 138
Game control
#57 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall
#62 of 138
Offense
#34 of 138
Defense
#79 of 138
Special teams
#129 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Texas State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.002 net EPA/play

#65

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

2.15 points

#59 · Down 4 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +6.37 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -3.88, schedule #84 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -0.42. That is worth +2.49 on its own; the preseason prior of +1.12 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +2.15.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Texas State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

GameRaw margin → transformedVenue adjustmentRecency weightFit shareOpponent ratingMargin termOpponent termTotal term
Week 1 · Texas
away · 2026-09-05 · ID 401856667
-52.00 → -35.00+2.500.76379.44%+13.57-3.0671.281-1.786
Week 2 · UTSA
home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401860884
-5.00 → -5.00-2.500.79379.81%+3.69-0.7360.362-0.374
Week 3 · North Texas
home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401860889
+14.00 → +14.00-2.500.824910.19%+5.881.1720.5991.772
Week 4 · Incarnate Word
home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401860892
+53.00 → +35.00-2.500.857210.59%-25.00 (fixed lower division)3.443-2.6480.794
Week 5 · San Diego State
away · 2026-10-04 · ID 401860900
-2.00 → -2.00+2.500.890911.01%-5.790.055-0.637-0.582
Week 7 · Colorado State
home · 2026-10-16 · ID 401860923
+39.00 → +35.00-2.500.962211.89%-8.173.864-0.9722.893
Week 8 · Utah State
home · 2026-10-24 · ID 401860906
+3.00 → +3.00-2.501.000012.36%-7.320.062-0.905-0.843

Game terms +1.87 points; prior term +0.28 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +2.15 points. The preseason prior is +1.12 with 24.71% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

1.5 SP+ points

#65 · Down 3 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

1.47 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#62 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 8.79 on 410 plays; defense 7.32 on 372 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Texas State 6 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches
Record
4-3 · conf 2-1 · home 4-1 · away 0-2 · expected wins 4.0
Polls (Week 9)
unranked
CFP latest
not published
CFP final
not published
Against the spread
2026: 3-4 ATS (+0.9 avg) · 2025: 5-8 ATS (+0.6 avg)
Head coach
G.J. Kinne · hired 2022-12-02 · 23-16 over 4 captured seasons
Recruiting classes
2024 #96 (153 pts) · 2025 #101 (144 pts) · 2026 #74 (188 pts)
Returning
76% of production · 67% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
CategoryProductionUsage
Passing100%99%
Receiving79%74%
Rushing48%39%

Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position groupCommitsAvg. starsAvg. ratingTotal rating
Defensive Back83.000.83976.72
Defensive Line83.000.84686.77
Linebacker33.000.85482.56
Offensive Line103.000.84138.41
Quarterback43.000.84313.37
Receiver143.000.843111.80
Running Back23.000.84371.69
Special Teams43.000.84113.36

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / historyMetricValuePlays / attemptsOverall usageUsage detailRecruiting
Brad Jackson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148803. Texas State (2024–2026)

Passing WEPA0.36218649.6%
Pass 94.7% · Rush 22.0%

1st 39.8% · 2nd 50.3% · 3rd 73.5%

Standard downs 41.0% · Passing downs 75.9%

2024: 3★ · 0.8196
Torrance Burgess Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5088888. Texas State (2024–2026); UTEP (2022–2023)

Rushing WEPA0.20911323.9%
Pass 5.8% · Rush 36.8%

1st 32.4% · 2nd 21.5% · 3rd 10.8%

Standard downs 28.7% · Passing downs 9.0%

2022: 3★ · 0.8200
Brad Jackson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148803. Texas State (2024–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.3117349.6%
Pass 94.7% · Rush 22.0%

1st 39.8% · 2nd 50.3% · 3rd 73.5%

Standard downs 41.0% · Passing downs 75.9%

2024: 3★ · 0.8196
Davian Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5216509. Texas State (2026–2026); Mississippi State (2025–2025)

Rushing WEPA0.3435317.2%
Pass 4.0% · Rush 26.4%

1st 16.4% · 2nd 20.8% · 3rd 10.8%

Standard downs 18.7% · Passing downs 12.5%

2025: 3★ · 0.8756
Jacob Bonilla · PK

CFBD athlete 5295880. Texas State (2025–2026)

Kicker PAAR-2.29010—
Pass — · Rush —

1st — · 2nd — · 3rd —

Standard downs — · Passing downs —

Not linked
Dylan Cunanan · PK

CFBD athlete 5220121. Texas State (2026–2026); Toledo (2024–2025)

Kicker PAAR-7.8503—
Pass — · Rush —

1st — · 2nd — · 3rd —

Standard downs — · Passing downs —

2024: stars unavailable
Arvis Battle Jr. · TE

CFBD athlete 5217799. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.0%
Pass 2.1% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 1.4% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Beau Sparks · WR

CFBD athlete 5152414. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——7.0%
Pass 17.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 6.2% · 2nd 6.7% · 3rd 9.3%

Standard downs 5.8% · Passing downs 10.4%

Not linked
Blake Smith · TE

CFBD athlete 4685157. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.7%
Pass 5.9% · Rush 0.6%

1st 0.8% · 2nd 5.2% · 3rd 3.4%

Standard downs 1.4% · Passing downs 6.7%

Not linked
Chris Dawn Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5077873. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——10.6%
Pass 27.4% · Rush 0.0%

1st 10.7% · 2nd 6.2% · 3rd 17.6%

Standard downs 10.1% · Passing downs 12.0%

Not linked
Cole Pryor · RB

CFBD athlete 5258487. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.7%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 4.3%

1st 2.9% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 4.3%

Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Dameon Crowe · WR

CFBD athlete 5303264. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.9%
Pass 7.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 4.9% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 3.4%

Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 3.3%

Not linked
Gavin Parkhurst · QB

CFBD athlete 5202460. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——10.0%
Pass 18.9% · Rush 4.9%

1st 9.8% · 2nd 6.8% · 3rd 13.8%

Standard downs 9.1% · Passing downs 13.3%

Not linked
Jake Simpson · TE

CFBD athlete 5121615. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.0%
Pass 2.1% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.2% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 1.4% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Jaylen Jenkins · RB

CFBD athlete 4916885. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——8.7%
Pass 1.7% · Rush 13.8%

1st 11.0% · 2nd 7.4% · 3rd 7.0%

Standard downs 11.0% · Passing downs 1.7%

Not linked
Jordan Martin · WR

CFBD athlete 5156893. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.2%
Pass 5.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 1.4% · 2nd 2.8% · 3rd 3.1%

Standard downs 0.8% · Passing downs 6.4%

Not linked
Juntavious Harris · RB

CFBD athlete 5269148. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——5.6%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 8.0%

1st 4.0% · 2nd 10.0% · 3rd 2.6%

Standard downs 6.4% · Passing downs 2.3%

Not linked
Kylen Evans · WR

CFBD athlete 5149265. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.2%
Pass 11.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.7% · 2nd 5.9% · 3rd 5.9%

Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 9.6%

Not linked
LaKeyleon Graves · WR

CFBD athlete 5277007. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.9% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Taji Atkins · RB

CFBD athlete 5147756. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.1%
Pass 0.9% · Rush 3.0%

1st 3.1% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 3.0%

Not linked
Tucker Cusano · WR

CFBD athlete 5236321. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.3%
Pass 7.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 4.1% · 2nd 2.4% · 3rd 3.6%

Standard downs 3.1% · Passing downs 3.9%

Not linked
Ty Stamey · TE

CFBD athlete 5085497. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.2%
Pass 5.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 1.2% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 2.0%

Standard downs 1.2% · Passing downs 5.3%

Not linked
Zechariah Sample · WR

CFBD athlete 5138042. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.7%
Pass 11.9% · Rush 0.0%

1st 5.0% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 5.6%

Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 7.0%

Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 18 reported
PlayerFromDateStars / ratingEligibility
Chancellor Owens · DLArizona2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate
Davian Jackson · WRMississippi State2026-01-213★ / 0.8600Immediate
Dexter Ricks Jr. · CBLiberty2026-01-163★ / 0.8400Immediate
Dylan Cunanan · KToledo2026-01-20— / —Immediate
Jason Patterson · EDGETexas Southern2026-01-213★ / 0.8500Immediate
Javante Mackey · LBArkansas State2026-01-213★ / 0.8500Immediate
Jaylen Early · IOLMissouri2026-01-213★ / 0.8500Immediate
John Smith · SColorado State2026-01-213★ / 0.8400Immediate
Jordan Sample · LBArkansas State2026-01-213★ / 0.8300Immediate
Josiah Graham · EDGEMonmouth2026-05-12— / —Immediate
Kaleb James · DLArkansas2026-01-113★ / —Immediate
Michael Patterson · CBStephen F. Austin2026-01-203★ / 0.8600Immediate
Phillip Bradford · DLMcNeese2026-01-203★ / 0.8500Immediate
Rasheed Jackson · OTTCU2026-01-203★ / 0.8600Immediate
Shaker Reisig · QBBoston College2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate
Tae Woody · DLUL Monroe2026-01-203★ / 0.8400Immediate
William Boone · OTNorth Carolina2026-01-193★ / 0.8500Immediate
Zechariah Sample · WRArizona State2026-01-213★ / 0.8500Immediate
Outgoing · 21 reported
PlayerToDateStars / ratingEligibility
Bobby Crosby · SNot reported2026-01-083★ / —Immediate
Brock Riker · IOLPenn State2026-01-103★ / 0.8600Immediate
Chantz Johnson · LBNorth Texas2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate
Charlie Leota · DLNot reported2026-01-162★ / —Immediate
Devarrick Woods · DLClemson2026-01-173★ / 0.8600Immediate
Holden Geriner · QBPittsburgh2026-01-163★ / 0.8300Immediate
Javis Mynatt · SJames Madison2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate
Jaylen Jenkins · RBNot reported2025-12-143★ / —Immediate
Jermy Jackson Jr. · EDGENot reported2026-01-053★ / —Immediate
Jordan Sanders · DLFlorida State2026-01-173★ / 0.8600Immediate
Kalil Alexander · EDGENot reported2026-01-083★ / —Immediate
Kamren Washington · DLBaylor2026-01-063★ / 0.8600Immediate
Keldric Luster · QBBall State2026-01-093★ / —Immediate
Khamari Terrell · CBWashington State2026-01-143★ / 0.8500Immediate
Kyran Bourda · DLNot reported2026-01-083★ / —Immediate
L.J. Johnson Jr. · WRUtah State2026-02-043★ / 0.8400Immediate
Ryan Nolan · SNot reported2026-01-112★ / —Withdrawn
Tellek Lockette · IOLMaryland2026-01-213★ / 0.8600Immediate
Ty Mims · WRUAB2026-01-153★ / 0.8400Immediate
Tyler Robles · KWashington2026-01-07— / —Immediate
Tymere Jackson · EDGENot reported2026-01-08— / —Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Texas State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

G.J. Kinne · career 23–16 across 4 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 5 appointments
  1. 2023–present · G.J. Kinne · active at capture

    23–16 · 39 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Hired 2022-12-02. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  2. 2019–2022 · Jake Spavital

    13–35 · 48 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Hired 2018-11-28. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  3. 2018–2018 · Chris Woods

    0–1 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2018-11-18. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  4. 2016–2018 · Everett Withers

    7–28 · 35 attributed games · 3 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2016-01-06. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  5. 2012–2015 · Dennis Franchione

    20–28 · 48 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Hired 2011-01-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coachRecordConferencePostseasonSP+SRSRecruiting rankFinal poll
2026 · G.J. Kinne · incomplete attribution0–0——2.55.774—
2025 · G.J. Kinne7–63–51–02.3-1.6101—
2024 · G.J. Kinne8–55–31–05.40.996—
2023 · G.J. Kinne8–54–41–0-1.6-4.998—
2022 · Jake Spavital4–82–60–0-11.5-12.8133—
2021 · Jake Spavital4–83–50–0-16-15.6183—
2020 · Jake Spavital2–102–60–0-13.4-8.499—
2019 · Jake Spavital3–92–60–0-16.2-18.8133—
2018 · Everett Withers · incomplete attribution3–8——-16.4-19.8107—
2018 · Chris Woods · incomplete attribution0–1——-16.4-19.8107—
2017 · Everett Withers2–101–70–0-23.5-2592—
2016 · Everett Withers2–100–80–0-25.5-29.2110—
2015 · Dennis Franchione3–92–60–0-15.5-22.895—
Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:08:46 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

StatisticOffense rank / populationPercentileDefense rank / populationPercentile
PPA / play23 / 13883.987 / 13837.2
Success rate10 / 13893.4105 / 13824.1
Explosiveness55 / 13860.671 / 13848.9
Standard-down success46 / 13867.2107 / 13822.6
Passing-down success1 / 138100.0107 / 13822.6
Pass PPA23 / 13883.9105 / 13824.1
Rush PPA21 / 13885.446 / 13867.2
Pass explosiveness44 / 13868.639 / 13872.3
Rush explosiveness39 / 13872.352 / 13862.8
Line yards32 / 13877.450 / 13864.2
Second-level yards64 / 13854.060 / 13856.9
Open-field yards3 / 13898.517 / 13888.3
Stuff rate26 / 13881.813 / 13891.2
Power successT115 / 13816.410 / 13893.4
HavocT25 / 13882.194 / 13832.1
Front-seven havocT44 / 13868.2T109 / 13820.1
DB havocT19 / 13885.8T47 / 13866.1
Points / opportunity86 / 13838.0108 / 13821.9
Average field positionT102 / 13825.5T96 / 13829.6
Field-position expected points108 / 13821.998 / 13829.2

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Brad Jackson · QBUsage 49.6% · Avg PPA 0.392 · Total 105.180
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.392105.18049.6%
Pass0.40579.70594.7%
Rush0.42329.63622.0%
1st down0.16516.02839.8%
2nd down0.53447.49050.3%
3rd down0.65449.02873.5%
Standard downs0.26744.53641.0%
Passing downs0.60060.64475.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. · RBUsage 23.9% · Avg PPA 0.293 · Total 37.791
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.29337.79123.9%
Pass0.6347.6105.8%
Rush0.25830.18136.8%
1st down0.15612.31232.4%
2nd down0.35713.54721.5%
3rd down0.7848.62610.8%
Standard downs0.27031.57028.7%
Passing downs0.5186.2219.0%
Davian Jackson · RBUsage 17.2% · Avg PPA 0.219 · Total 14.900
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.21914.90017.2%
Pass1.1827.0954.0%
Rush0.1267.80526.4%
1st down0.0792.29716.4%
2nd down0.3599.68220.8%
3rd down0.5354.27810.8%
Standard downs0.0412.31918.7%
Passing downs1.04812.58012.5%
Chris Dawn Jr. · WRUsage 10.6% · Avg PPA 0.273 · Total 15.588
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.27315.58810.6%
Pass0.27315.58827.4%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.0391.00410.7%
2nd down0.99910.9866.2%
3rd down0.64811.65717.6%
Standard downs0.0873.57710.1%
Passing downs0.75112.01212.0%
Gavin Parkhurst · QBUsage 10.0% · Avg PPA 0.249 · Total 3.482
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2493.48210.0%
Pass0.8448.44018.9%
Rush-1.240-4.9594.9%
1st down0.9385.6319.8%
2nd down0.1530.4586.8%
3rd down0.4051.62013.8%
Standard downs0.0080.0779.1%
Passing downs0.8513.40513.3%
Jaylen Jenkins · RBUsage 8.7% · Avg PPA 0.106 · Total 4.232
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1064.2328.7%
Pass0.2670.8021.7%
Rush0.0933.42913.8%
1st down-0.030-0.68711.0%
2nd down0.0570.6287.4%
3rd down0.7154.2907.0%
Standard downs0.0100.38111.0%
Passing downs1.9253.8501.7%
Beau Sparks · WRUsage 7.0% · Avg PPA 0.707 · Total 22.611
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.70722.6117.0%
Pass0.70722.61117.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.77210.0386.2%
2nd down0.4444.4366.7%
3rd down0.5794.6339.3%
Standard downs0.97819.5625.8%
Passing downs0.2543.05010.4%
Juntavious Harris · RBUsage 5.6% · Avg PPA 0.209 · Total 2.513
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2092.5135.6%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush0.2923.2078.0%
1st down0.3951.5794.0%
2nd down0.2391.67510.0%
3rd down-0.742-0.7422.6%
Standard downs0.3033.3346.4%
Passing downs-0.821-0.8212.3%
Zechariah Sample · WRUsage 4.7% · Avg PPA 0.257 · Total 4.629
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2574.6294.7%
Pass0.2574.62911.9%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.5294.7605.0%
2nd down-0.616-3.0804.0%
3rd down0.7372.9495.6%
Standard downs0.2833.1103.8%
Passing downs0.2171.5197.0%
Kylen Evans · WRUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA 1.031 · Total 17.533
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall1.03117.5334.2%
Pass1.03117.53311.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.5942.9692.7%
2nd down1.72313.7875.9%
3rd down0.1940.7775.9%
Standard downs0.9397.5092.6%
Passing downs1.11410.0249.6%
Tucker Cusano · WRUsage 3.3% · Avg PPA 0.753 · Total 9.787
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.7539.7873.3%
Pass0.7539.7877.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.173-1.2134.1%
2nd down1.2163.6472.4%
3rd down2.4517.3533.6%
Standard downs-0.169-1.5183.1%
Passing downs2.82611.3053.9%
Dameon Crowe · WRUsage 2.9% · Avg PPA 0.530 · Total 2.120
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.5302.1202.9%
Pass0.5302.1207.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.5941.7824.9%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down0.3380.3383.4%
Standard downs0.5941.7822.7%
Passing downs0.3380.3383.3%
Blake Smith · TEUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.756 · Total 6.049
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.7566.0492.7%
Pass1.0337.2285.9%
Rush-1.179-1.1790.6%
1st down3.2413.2410.8%
2nd down-0.325-1.6245.2%
3rd down2.2164.4323.4%
Standard downs0.8532.5591.4%
Passing downs0.6983.4906.7%
Cole Pryor · RBUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.291 · Total 1.162
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2911.1622.7%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush0.2911.1624.3%
1st down0.2660.5322.9%
2nd down-0.918-0.9182.0%
3rd down1.5481.5484.3%
Standard downs0.2911.1623.3%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Jordan Martin · WRUsage 2.2% · Avg PPA 0.399 · Total 2.791
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.3992.7912.2%
Pass0.3992.7915.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.258-0.5171.4%
2nd down0.3050.9162.8%
3rd down1.1962.3933.1%
Standard downs-0.258-0.5170.8%
Passing downs0.6623.3086.4%
Ty Stamey · TEUsage 2.2% · Avg PPA 1.321 · Total 15.857
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall1.32115.8572.2%
Pass1.32115.8575.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.2510.7541.2%
2nd down1.1877.1203.4%
3rd down2.2404.4812.0%
Standard downs0.6563.2791.2%
Passing downs1.79712.5785.3%
Taji Atkins · RBUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA -0.204 · Total -1.222
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.204-1.2222.1%
Pass0.3990.3990.9%
Rush-0.324-1.6213.0%
1st down0.3811.5263.1%
2nd down-1.374-2.7482.2%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.3811.5261.8%
Passing downs-1.374-2.7483.0%
LaKeyleon Graves · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 2.093 · Total 4.186
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall2.0934.1861.4%
Pass2.0934.1864.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down2.0934.1862.9%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs2.0934.1861.8%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Arvis Battle Jr. · TEUsage 1.0% · Avg PPA -4.157 · Total -4.157
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-4.157-4.1571.0%
Pass-4.157-4.1572.1%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-4.157-4.1571.4%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Jake Simpson · TEUsage 1.0% · Avg PPA 0.307 · Total 0.307
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.3070.3071.0%
Pass0.3070.3072.1%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.3070.3072.2%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.3070.3071.4%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Where Texas State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Offense PPA/playOffense PPA/play: 0.246 (84th percentile; 138 teams)84thOffense success rateOffense success rate: 0.500 (93rd percentile; 138 teams)93rdOffense explosivenessOffense explosiveness: 1.256 (61st percentile; 138 teams)61stOffense pass PPA/playOffense pass PPA/play: 0.384 (84th percentile; 138 teams)84thOffense rush PPA/playOffense rush PPA/play: 0.204 (85th percentile; 138 teams)85thDefense PPA/playDefense PPA/play: 0.108 (37th percentile; 138 teams)37thDefense success rateDefense success rate: 0.433 (24th percentile; 138 teams)24thDefense explosivenessDefense explosiveness: 1.226 (49th percentile; 138 teams)49thDefense havoc createdDefense havoc created: 0.146 (32nd percentile; 138 teams)32nd
Values and percentiles
Texas State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
MetricValuePercentileBetter
Offense PPA/play0.24684th138 teamshigher
Offense success rate0.50093rd138 teamshigher
Offense explosiveness1.25661st138 teamshigher
Offense pass PPA/play0.38484th138 teamshigher
Offense rush PPA/play0.20485th138 teamshigher
Defense PPA/play0.10837th138 teamslower
Defense success rate0.43324th138 teamslower
Defense explosiveness1.22649th138 teamslower
Defense havoc created0.14632nd138 teamshigher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 98% of 205 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.6 yards (50th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 6.5 per completion. Completion 68.8%, 8.5 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.42.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
SideActualExpectedCPOE (pp)Qualifying / all attempts
Offense66.7%61.1%+5.6177 / 205
Defense allowed68.0%63.1%+4.9231 / 288

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses
Air Force: ADOT 13.1, YAC 3.9Akron: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.5Alabama: ADOT 9.9, YAC 5.3App State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 5.5Arizona: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.6Arizona State: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Arkansas: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.7Arkansas State: ADOT 9.0, YAC 5.3Army: ADOT 12.7, YAC 3.7Auburn: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.9BYU: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.4Ball State: ADOT 7.5, YAC 5.0Baylor: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.8Boise State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.3Boston College: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.0Bowling Green: ADOT 6.5, YAC 5.9Buffalo: ADOT 9.5, YAC 2.0California: ADOT 6.1, YAC 5.9Central Michigan: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.6Charlotte: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.6Cincinnati: ADOT 7.1, YAC 6.5Clemson: ADOT 6.7, YAC 5.7Coastal Carolina: ADOT 11.2, YAC 5.6Colorado: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.1Colorado State: ADOT 5.1, YAC 8.8Delaware: ADOT 9.4, YAC 6.3Duke: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.4East Carolina: ADOT 8.4, YAC 6.2Eastern Michigan: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.4Florida: ADOT 7.2, YAC 6.9Florida Atlantic: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.7Florida International: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.3Florida State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 8.5Fresno State: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.6Georgia: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.6Georgia Southern: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.1Georgia State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.5Georgia Tech: ADOT 7.3, YAC 5.0Hawai'i: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.2Houston: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.7Illinois: ADOT 9.7, YAC 4.0Indiana: ADOT 11.4, YAC 5.2Iowa: ADOT 7.7, YAC 6.2Iowa State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Jacksonville State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.8James Madison: ADOT 8.6, YAC 4.8Kansas: ADOT 12.6, YAC 5.3Kansas State: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.3Kennesaw State: ADOT 6.8, YAC 4.9Kent State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 4.9Kentucky: ADOT 6.7, YAC 7.0LSU: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Liberty: ADOT 11.3, YAC 6.2Louisiana: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Louisiana Tech: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.6Louisville: ADOT 9.0, YAC 7.7Marshall: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.5Maryland: ADOT 7.0, YAC 6.2Massachusetts: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.2Memphis: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.7Miami: ADOT 7.3, YAC 7.2Miami (OH): ADOT 10.5, YAC 6.6Michigan: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.6Michigan State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 4.1Middle Tennessee: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.5Minnesota: ADOT 6.4, YAC 6.3Mississippi State: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.8Missouri: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.2Missouri State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 5.7NC State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Navy: ADOT 14.2, YAC 8.6Nebraska: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.8Nevada: ADOT 7.9, YAC 6.3New Mexico: ADOT 10.4, YAC 6.0New Mexico State: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.3North Carolina: ADOT 7.8, YAC 6.3North Dakota State: ADOT 10.6, YAC 4.6North Texas: ADOT 9.2, YAC 6.0Northern Illinois: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Northwestern: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.5Notre Dame: ADOT 9.6, YAC 5.0Ohio: ADOT 9.4, YAC 5.6Ohio State: ADOT 11.0, YAC 4.9Oklahoma: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.5Oklahoma State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.2Old Dominion: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.1Ole Miss: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Oregon: ADOT 7.5, YAC 6.4Oregon State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 8.3Penn State: ADOT 9.7, YAC 5.0Pittsburgh: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.6Purdue: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Rice: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.9Rutgers: ADOT 10.9, YAC 5.2SMU: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.9Sacramento State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.3Sam Houston: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.5San Diego State: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.3San José State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 3.8South Alabama: ADOT 10.1, YAC 5.2South Carolina: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.9South Florida: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.1Southern Miss: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.0Stanford: ADOT 8.9, YAC 4.6Syracuse: ADOT 9.3, YAC 5.7TCU: ADOT 9.0, YAC 4.7Temple: ADOT 8.7, YAC 7.1Tennessee: ADOT 6.9, YAC 6.8Texas: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.2Texas A&M: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.3Texas Tech: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.7Toledo: ADOT 8.8, YAC 6.2Troy: ADOT 8.9, YAC 6.5Tulane: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.0Tulsa: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.7UAB: ADOT 10.0, YAC 4.3UCF: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.5UCLA: ADOT 9.0, YAC 6.0UConn: ADOT 10.8, YAC 6.5UL Monroe: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.7UNLV: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.0USC: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0UTEP: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.2UTSA: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.8Utah: ADOT 10.0, YAC 5.6Utah State: ADOT 9.8, YAC 4.7Vanderbilt: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.1Virginia: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.9Virginia Tech: ADOT 6.5, YAC 7.0Wake Forest: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0Washington: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Washington State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 3.7West Virginia: ADOT 13.8, YAC 8.5Western Kentucky: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.4Western Michigan: ADOT 8.1, YAC 5.3Wisconsin: ADOT 6.9, YAC 7.4Wyoming: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.6Texas State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.5Average depth of target (yards) →Yards after catch per completion →

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Texas State.

Target mix by zone, Texas State offense
Short left29% · 57Short middle17% · 34Short right40% · 79Deep left4% · 8Deep middle4% · 7Deep right6% · 12

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail
Texas State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
SideAttemptsChartedADOTYACComp %PPACPOECPOE att
Passing offense20598%8.66.568.8%0.42+5.6 pp177
Passing defense28899%7.95.266.0%0.29+4.9 pp231

Rushing production

SideAttemptsYards / carrySuccessPPALine yards / rushSecond-level yards / rushOpen-field yards / rushStuff ratePower success
Offense3305.749.1%0.233.301.102.1013.6%63.4%
Defense allowed2243.741.0%-0.012.700.900.6023.5%56.3%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

SideYards recordedIndividualUnattributedSacksKneelsTeam rushesMultiple carriersDirection located / eligible
Offense327 / 3303201010440313 / 316 · 99.1%
Defense allowed219 / 224211137000213 / 217 · 98.2%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +5.6 pp. 6 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

-5.94.514.8W1W1 vs Texas: +3.0 ppW2W2 vs UTSA: -5.9 ppW3W3 vs North Texas: +14.8 ppW4W5W5 vs San Diego State: +5.7 ppW7W7 vs Colorado State: +12.3 ppW8W8 vs Utah State: +7.4 pp

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage
WeekOpponentPass attCPOE attComp %*Expected %*CPOEADOTPass PPARush attRush yds/carryRush PPA
W1Texas292969.0%66.0%+3.0 pp5.90.16413.9-0.14
W2UTSA302955.2%61.1%-5.9 pp8.70.09505.70.22
W3North Texas222272.7%57.9%+14.8 pp11.51.13496.80.32
W4Incarnate Word230———7.91.32467.30.22
W5San Diego State444163.4%57.7%+5.7 pp10.60.21583.30.03
W7Colorado State191973.7%61.4%+12.3 pp9.50.73559.10.69
W8Utah State383770.3%62.8%+7.4 pp6.7-0.01312.70.13

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

16 punts · 35.3 gross yards/punt · 34.2 net yards/punt

3 inside the 20 · 0 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 16/16 punts. Known net yards: 12/16 punts.

Our punt returns

9 returns · 13.6 yards/return · 1 touchdowns

0 muffs · 1 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 9/9 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games
GamePuntsGross yd/puntNet yd/puntKnown net yards
Week 8 · Utah State536.036.05/5
Week 7 · Colorado State142.042.01/1
Week 5 · San Diego State334.342.52/3
Week 4 · Incarnate Word238.5—0/2
Week 3 · North Texas231.031.02/2
Team style
Rating history