Model–market comparison

THE EDGE BOARDLINES 2026-09-17

2026 · Week 3 · Current SP+ (captured 2026-09-17). Historical ATS: 2025 · 511 graded games.

MODEL MARGIN VS MARKET LINE — RANKED BY |EDGE|, HOME-MINUS-AWAY

PROJ = model's projected margin (home side) · LINE = market number, same scale · EDGE = proj minus line — a pick fires when the gap clears 3 points.

Did NOT beat the closing number: 50.5% ATS against the 52.4% break-even at -110. Buckets below break-even lose money.

LINED GAMES

PICKS

BIGGEST EDGE

+11.4

Find a team

57 games

#	Matchup	Projected home margin	Market home margin	Gap	The Pick
1	Georgia State @ UCF	+29.7	+18.25	+11.4	UCF -18.25 7-14 point gap · 44% historical hit rate · 101 games · 2025 · below break-even
2	Nevada @ Middle Tennessee	-11.2	-3.5	-7.7	Nevada -3.5 7-14 point gap · 44% historical hit rate · 101 games · 2025 · below break-even
3	Buffalo @ Penn State	+34.1	+40.75	-6.7	Buffalo +40.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
4	New Mexico @ Oklahoma	+16.7	+22.25	-5.5	New Mexico +22.25 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
5	UAB @ Louisiana	+13.2	+7.75	+5.5	Louisiana -7.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
6	Mississippi State @ South Carolina	+9.4	+4	+5.4	South Carolina -4 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
7	UTSA @ Texas	+25.4	+30.25	-4.8	UTSA +30.25 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
8	Northern Illinois @ Arizona	+29.7	+34.5	-4.8	Northern Illinois +34.5 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
9	Louisiana Tech @ Baylor	+15.2	+19.75	-4.5	Louisiana Tech +19.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
10	North Dakota State @ Sacramento State	-23.4	-27.5	+4.1	Sacramento State +27.5 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
11	Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin	+20.0	+24	-4.0	Eastern Michigan +24 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
12	James Madison @ San Diego State	-2.0	+2	-4.0	James Madison +2 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
13	Utah State @ Utah	+24.4	+28.25	-3.9	Utah State +28.25 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
14	Kentucky @ Texas A&M	+20.5	+16.75	+3.8	Texas A&M -16.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
15	Florida State @ Alabama	+16.0	+19.75	-3.8	Florida State +19.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
16	LSU @ Ole Miss	-6.4	-2.75	-3.6	LSU -2.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
17	Stanford @ Duke	+13.3	+9.75	+3.5	Duke -9.75 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
18	UConn @ Southern Miss	-6.5	-3	-3.5	UConn -3 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
19	BYU @ Colorado State	-21.0	-17.5	-3.5	BYU -17.5 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
20	USC @ Rutgers	-19.8	-23.25	+3.5	Rutgers +23.25 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
21	Colorado @ Northwestern	+6.6	+3.5	+3.1	Northwestern -3.5 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
22	Western Kentucky @ Indiana	+41.2	+44.25	-3.0	Western Kentucky +44.25 3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even
23	UTEP @ Michigan	+32.5	+35.25	-2.8	below threshold
24	Florida @ Auburn	-5.2	-2.5	-2.7	below threshold
25	Fresno State @ San José State	-9.2	-6.5	-2.7	below threshold
26	Charlotte @ App State	+20.3	+17.75	+2.5	below threshold
27	Arizona State @ Kansas	-3.1	-5.5	+2.4	below threshold
28	Houston @ Texas Tech	+10.0	+7.75	+2.3	below threshold
29	Ball State @ Liberty	+16.7	+14.5	+2.2	below threshold
30	Kennesaw State @ Tennessee	+33.4	+35.5	-2.1	below threshold
31	Troy @ Missouri	+24.7	+26.75	-2.0	below threshold
32	Wyoming @ Central Michigan	-0.7	+1.25	-1.9	below threshold
33	Temple @ Toledo	+3.8	+5.75	-1.9	below threshold
34	Tulane @ Kansas State	+22.4	+20.5	+1.9	below threshold
35	Akron @ Minnesota	+25.8	+24	+1.8	below threshold
36	Michigan State @ Notre Dame	+28.0	+29.75	-1.8	below threshold
37	Marshall @ Missouri State	-2.2	-3.75	+1.6	below threshold
38	Ohio @ South Alabama	+4.5	+6	-1.5	below threshold
39	Virginia Tech @ Maryland	-1.5	-3	+1.5	below threshold
40	Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati	+16.7	+15.25	+1.4	below threshold
41	NC State @ Vanderbilt	+4.6	+3.25	+1.4	below threshold
42	Coastal Carolina @ Delaware	+3.2	+4.5	-1.3	below threshold
43	Purdue @ UCLA	+12.8	+14	-1.2	below threshold
44	North Texas @ Texas State	+4.1	+3	+1.1	below threshold
45	Florida International @ Florida Atlantic	+6.0	+7	-1.0	below threshold
46	North Carolina @ Clemson	+4.2	+3.25	+0.9	below threshold
47	Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State	+2.1	+3	-0.9	below threshold
48	Western Michigan @ Rice	-10.4	-9.5	-0.9	below threshold
49	Miami @ Wake Forest	-19.7	-20.5	+0.8	below threshold
50	Georgia @ Arkansas	-25.3	-24.5	-0.8	below threshold
51	Arkansas State @ TCU	+20.9	+20.25	+0.7	below threshold
52	West Virginia @ Virginia	+9.7	+10.25	-0.6	below threshold
53	Kent State @ Ohio State	+53.2	+52.75	+0.5	below threshold
54	East Carolina @ Old Dominion	+2.3	+2.75	-0.5	below threshold
55	Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	+10.8	+10.5	+0.3	below threshold
56	Bowling Green @ Iowa State	+23.5	+23.75	-0.3	below threshold
57	SMU @ Louisville	+1.3	+1.25	+0.1	below threshold

1. Georgia State @ UCF

+11.4

Projected home margin

+29.7

Market home margin

+18.25

UCF -18.25

7-14 point gap · 44% historical hit rate · 101 games · 2025 · below break-even

2. Nevada @ Middle Tennessee

-7.7

Projected home margin

-11.2

Market home margin

-3.5

Nevada -3.5

7-14 point gap · 44% historical hit rate · 101 games · 2025 · below break-even

3. Buffalo @ Penn State

-6.7

Projected home margin

+34.1

Market home margin

+40.75

Buffalo +40.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

4. New Mexico @ Oklahoma

-5.5

Projected home margin

+16.7

Market home margin

+22.25

New Mexico +22.25

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

5. UAB @ Louisiana

+5.5

Projected home margin

+13.2

Market home margin

+7.75

Louisiana -7.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

6. Mississippi State @ South Carolina

+5.4

Projected home margin

+9.4

Market home margin

South Carolina -4

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

7. UTSA @ Texas

-4.8

Projected home margin

+25.4

Market home margin

+30.25

UTSA +30.25

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

8. Northern Illinois @ Arizona

-4.8

Projected home margin

+29.7

Market home margin

+34.5

Northern Illinois +34.5

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

9. Louisiana Tech @ Baylor

-4.5

Projected home margin

+15.2

Market home margin

+19.75

Louisiana Tech +19.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

10. North Dakota State @ Sacramento State

+4.1

Projected home margin

-23.4

Market home margin

-27.5

Sacramento State +27.5

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

11. Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin

-4.0

Projected home margin

+20.0

Market home margin

+24

Eastern Michigan +24

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

12. James Madison @ San Diego State

-4.0

Projected home margin

-2.0

Market home margin

James Madison +2

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

13. Utah State @ Utah

-3.9

Projected home margin

+24.4

Market home margin

+28.25

Utah State +28.25

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

14. Kentucky @ Texas A&M

+3.8

Projected home margin

+20.5

Market home margin

+16.75

Texas A&M -16.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

15. Florida State @ Alabama

-3.8

Projected home margin

+16.0

Market home margin

+19.75

Florida State +19.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

16. LSU @ Ole Miss

-3.6

Projected home margin

-6.4

Market home margin

-2.75

LSU -2.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

17. Stanford @ Duke

+3.5

Projected home margin

+13.3

Market home margin

+9.75

Duke -9.75

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

18. UConn @ Southern Miss

-3.5

Projected home margin

-6.5

Market home margin

-3

UConn -3

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

19. BYU @ Colorado State

-3.5

Projected home margin

-21.0

Market home margin

-17.5

BYU -17.5

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

20. USC @ Rutgers

+3.5

Projected home margin

-19.8

Market home margin

-23.25

Rutgers +23.25

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

21. Colorado @ Northwestern

+3.1

Projected home margin

+6.6

Market home margin

+3.5

Northwestern -3.5

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

22. Western Kentucky @ Indiana

-3.0

Projected home margin

+41.2

Market home margin

+44.25

Western Kentucky +44.25

3-7 point gap · 51% historical hit rate · 170 games · 2025 · below break-even

23. UTEP @ Michigan

-2.8

Projected home margin

+32.5

Market home margin

+35.25

below threshold

24. Florida @ Auburn

-2.7

Projected home margin

-5.2

Market home margin

-2.5

below threshold

25. Fresno State @ San José State

-2.7

Projected home margin

-9.2

Market home margin

-6.5

below threshold

26. Charlotte @ App State

+2.5

Projected home margin

+20.3

Market home margin

+17.75

below threshold

27. Arizona State @ Kansas

+2.4

Projected home margin

-3.1

Market home margin

-5.5

below threshold

28. Houston @ Texas Tech

+2.3

Projected home margin

+10.0

Market home margin

+7.75

below threshold

29. Ball State @ Liberty

+2.2

Projected home margin

+16.7

Market home margin

+14.5

below threshold

30. Kennesaw State @ Tennessee

-2.1

Projected home margin

+33.4

Market home margin

+35.5

below threshold

31. Troy @ Missouri

-2.0

Projected home margin

+24.7

Market home margin

+26.75

below threshold

32. Wyoming @ Central Michigan

-1.9

Projected home margin

-0.7

Market home margin

+1.25

below threshold

33. Temple @ Toledo

-1.9

Projected home margin

+3.8

Market home margin

+5.75

below threshold

34. Tulane @ Kansas State

+1.9

Projected home margin

+22.4

Market home margin

+20.5

below threshold

35. Akron @ Minnesota

+1.8

Projected home margin

+25.8

Market home margin

+24

below threshold

36. Michigan State @ Notre Dame

-1.8

Projected home margin

+28.0

Market home margin

+29.75

below threshold

37. Marshall @ Missouri State

+1.6

Projected home margin

-2.2

Market home margin

-3.75

below threshold

38. Ohio @ South Alabama

-1.5

Projected home margin

+4.5

Market home margin

below threshold

39. Virginia Tech @ Maryland

+1.5

Projected home margin

-1.5

Market home margin

-3

below threshold

40. Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati

+1.4

Projected home margin

+16.7

Market home margin

+15.25

below threshold

41. NC State @ Vanderbilt

+1.4

Projected home margin

+4.6

Market home margin

+3.25

below threshold

42. Coastal Carolina @ Delaware

-1.3

Projected home margin

+3.2

Market home margin

+4.5

below threshold

43. Purdue @ UCLA

-1.2

Projected home margin

+12.8

Market home margin

+14

below threshold

44. North Texas @ Texas State

+1.1

Projected home margin

+4.1

Market home margin

below threshold

45. Florida International @ Florida Atlantic

-1.0

Projected home margin

+6.0

Market home margin

below threshold

46. North Carolina @ Clemson

+0.9

Projected home margin

+4.2

Market home margin

+3.25

below threshold

47. Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State

-0.9

Projected home margin

+2.1

Market home margin

below threshold

48. Western Michigan @ Rice

-0.9

Projected home margin

-10.4

Market home margin

-9.5

below threshold

49. Miami @ Wake Forest

+0.8

Projected home margin

-19.7

Market home margin

-20.5

below threshold

50. Georgia @ Arkansas

-0.8

Projected home margin

-25.3

Market home margin

-24.5

below threshold

51. Arkansas State @ TCU

+0.7

Projected home margin

+20.9

Market home margin

+20.25

below threshold

52. West Virginia @ Virginia

-0.6

Projected home margin

+9.7

Market home margin

+10.25

below threshold

53. Kent State @ Ohio State

+0.5

Projected home margin

+53.2

Market home margin

+52.75

below threshold

54. East Carolina @ Old Dominion

-0.5

Projected home margin

+2.3

Market home margin

+2.75

below threshold

55. Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

+0.3

Projected home margin

+10.8

Market home margin

+10.5

below threshold

56. Bowling Green @ Iowa State

-0.3

Projected home margin

+23.5

Market home margin

+23.75

below threshold

57. SMU @ Louisville

+0.1

Projected home margin

+1.3

Market home margin

+1.25

below threshold

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.

Model–market comparison

Edge board summary

Ranked edges