Hypothetical matchup

2025 model · generated 2026-09-08

Compare any two teams using the published ordinary least squares margin model. This is a hypothetical pairing, not a scheduled game or a market-backed pick. Open scheduled model picks.

CONFERENCE

TEAM A

TEAM B

FIELD

COMPARISON — OPPONENT_ADJUSTED_RIDGE

walk-forward ratings · epa_basis=opponent_adjusted_ridge
Stat	Oregon	Ohio State
Conference	Big Ten	Big Ten
Net rating	0.307	0.277
Adj EPA (off)	0.313	0.293
Adj EPA (allowed)	0.006	0.016
Recent net (last ≤5 wks)	0.248 · 0.267 · 0.296 · 0.306 · 0.307	0.244 · 0.249 · 0.264 · 0.283 · 0.277

PROJECTED MARGIN

+3.0

DERIVED TEAM A WIN ESTIMATE

57.8%

Positive margin favors Team A. The win estimate is a logistic conversion of this margin, not an independently fitted win-probability forecast or a betting confidence score.

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.

This machine projects any pairing. This week's slate has pre-built previews — open a game from the front page.

Hypothetical matchup

Matchup projections

Team comparison