Record
6-2 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook record2026 season
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
USC's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 31 across 8 systems; best 19, worst 39, so they disagree by 20 places.
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Results earned and schedule difficulty
Performance by unit
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
USC · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
6-2 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook record0.094 net EPA/play
#32
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD plays7.22 points
#31 · Down 10 places since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +5.64 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +2.00, schedule #24 of 138 (#1 = toughest). That is worth +7.64 on its own; the preseason prior of +5.76 still carries 23% of the weight, giving +7.22.
USC · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · San José State home · 2026-08-29 · ID 401864494 | +16.00 → +16.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 8.66% | -8.63 | 1.169 | -0.747 | 0.422 |
| Week 1 · Fresno State home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401858436 | +39.00 → +35.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 8.66% | +0.87 | 2.814 | 0.075 | 2.889 |
| Week 2 · Louisiana home · 2026-09-13 · ID 401858445 | +19.00 → +19.00 | -2.50 | 0.7937 | 9.00% | -0.55 | 1.485 | -0.050 | 1.435 |
| Week 3 · Rutgers away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858457 | +7.00 → +7.00 | +2.50 | 0.8249 | 9.35% | -5.70 | 0.888 | -0.533 | 0.355 |
| Week 4 · Oregon home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401858469 | -14.00 → -14.00 | -2.50 | 0.8572 | 9.72% | +8.55 | -1.604 | 0.831 | -0.773 |
| Week 5 · Washington home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401858478 | +4.00 → +4.00 | -2.50 | 0.8909 | 10.10% | +2.07 | 0.152 | 0.209 | 0.361 |
| Week 6 · Penn State away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401858485 | +8.00 → +8.00 | +2.50 | 0.9259 | 10.50% | +7.11 | 1.102 | 0.746 | 1.849 |
| Week 8 · Wisconsin away · 2026-10-24 · ID 401858500 | -17.00 → -17.00 | +2.50 | 1.0000 | 11.34% | +8.97 | -1.644 | 1.017 | -0.627 |
Game terms +5.91 points; prior term +1.31 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +7.22 points. The preseason prior is +5.76 with 22.68% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.9 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scores14.2 SP+ points
#19 · Down 2 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbook9.69 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#31 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 15.23 on 512 plays; defense 5.55 on 416 plays.
2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks USC 1 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence| Category | Production | Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | 91% | 96% |
| Receiving | 27% | 25% |
| Rushing | 78% | 73% |
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 18 | 3.67 | 0.9037 | 16.27 |
| Defensive Line | 25 | 3.52 | 0.9015 | 22.54 |
| Linebacker | 8 | 3.63 | 0.9120 | 7.30 |
| Offensive Line | 21 | 3.43 | 0.8992 | 18.88 |
| Quarterback | 3 | 4.67 | 0.9781 | 2.93 |
| Receiver | 18 | 4.06 | 0.9349 | 16.83 |
| Running Back | 7 | 3.71 | 0.9050 | 6.33 |
| Special Teams | 6 | 2.83 | 0.8524 | 5.11 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jayden Maiava · QBCFBD athlete 4685454. USC (2024–2026); UNLV (2022–2023) | Passing WEPA | 0.658 | 301 | 52.0% | Pass 94.9% · Rush 5.7%1st 43.6% · 2nd 55.9% · 3rd 64.6% Standard downs 44.0% · Passing downs 73.2% | 2022: 3★ · 0.8663 |
King Miller · RBCFBD athlete 5233016. USC (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.173 | 128 | 23.2% | Pass 3.0% · Rush 47.3%1st 28.6% · 2nd 23.4% · 3rd 10.1% Standard downs 27.4% · Passing downs 12.1% | Not linked |
Waymond Jordan · RBCFBD athlete 5295318. USC (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.150 | 66 | 14.1% | Pass 2.5% · Rush 26.4%1st 15.8% · 2nd 10.5% · 3rd 15.7% Standard downs 16.3% · Passing downs 7.8% | 2025: 3★ · 0.8683 |
Caden Chittenden · PKCFBD athlete 5192405. USC (2025–2026); UNLV (2024–2024) | Kicker PAAR | -0.840 | 10 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | 2024: 3★ · 0.8044 |
Ryon Sayeri · PCFBD athlete 5221037. USC (2024–2026) | Kicker PAAR | -0.910 | 1 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Carson Tabaracci · TECFBD athlete 4905248. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.5% | Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.5% · 2nd 4.1% · 3rd 2.6% Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 4.1% | Not linked |
Corey Simms · WRCFBD athlete 5148664. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.6% | Pass 12.2% · Rush 0.0%1st 4.4% · 2nd 5.3% · 3rd 8.7% Standard downs 5.1% · Passing downs 7.4% | Not linked |
Deshonne Redeaux · RBCFBD athlete 5159076. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.7% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 6.2%1st 1.9% · 2nd 2.7% · 3rd 5.4% Standard downs 3.0% · Passing downs 1.8% | Not linked |
Ethan Feaster · WRCFBD athlete 5268018. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.2% | Pass 4.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.6% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 2.5% · Passing downs 1.5% | Not linked |
Jonas Williams · QBCFBD athlete 5161854. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.7% | Pass 15.3% · Rush 1.7%1st 6.6% · 2nd 8.2% · 3rd 11.1% Standard downs 6.5% · Passing downs 11.5% | Not linked |
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt · WRCFBD athlete 5161013. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 9.1% | Pass 16.8% · Rush 0.8%1st 6.0% · 2nd 11.7% · 3rd 10.1% Standard downs 6.3% · Passing downs 16.6% | Not linked |
Mark Bowman · TECFBD athlete 5264686. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.8% | Pass 16.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 5.3% · 2nd 12.5% · 3rd 7.0% Standard downs 5.9% · Passing downs 13.0% | Not linked |
Riley Wormley · RBCFBD athlete 5144164. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.0% | Pass 5.0% · Rush 5.4%1st 7.3% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 6.0% Standard downs 6.0% · Passing downs 2.3% | Not linked |
Shahn Alston · RBCFBD athlete 5158934. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.3% | Pass 1.6% · Rush 14.0%1st 8.8% · 2nd 7.5% · 3rd 4.5% Standard downs 9.2% · Passing downs 2.0% | Not linked |
Taniela Tupou · TECFBD athlete 5209130. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.1% | Pass 7.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.6% · 2nd 3.2% · 3rd 5.8% Standard downs 4.6% · Passing downs 2.7% | Not linked |
Tanook Hines · WRCFBD athlete 5141975. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.7% | Pass 12.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 4.8% · 2nd 7.4% · 3rd 11.6% Standard downs 4.3% · Passing downs 12.5% | Not linked |
Terrell Anderson · WRCFBD athlete 5084658. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.3% | Pass 9.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.9% · 2nd 7.7% · 3rd 9.1% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 8.3% | Not linked |
Trent Mosley · WRCFBD athlete 5160469. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 11.6% | Pass 21.9% · Rush 0.6%1st 11.3% · 2nd 10.0% · 3rd 15.9% Standard downs 11.0% · Passing downs 13.1% | Not linked |
Tron Baker · WRCFBD athlete 5158959. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.2% | Pass 4.2% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.1% · 2nd 3.0% · 3rd 1.1% Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 2.9% | Not linked |
Tucker Ashcraft · TECFBD athlete 5032961. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.9% | Pass 4.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.0% · 2nd 1.5% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 2.0% · Passing downs 1.7% | Not linked |
Walter Matthews · TECFBD athlete 5079510. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.4% | Pass 3.4% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Zach Williams · WRCFBD athlete 5146757. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.5% | Pass 8.4% · Rush 0.4%1st 4.1% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 4.0% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 6.4% | Not linked |
| Player | From | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex VanSumeren · DL | Michigan State | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8900 | Immediate |
| Caleb Moser · LS | UAB | 2026-09-09 | — / — | Immediate |
| Carrington Pierce · CB | Oklahoma State | 2025-12-14 | 3★ / 0.8000 | Immediate |
| Deven Bryant · LB | Washington | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| GianCarlo Rufo · LB | Georgetown | 2026-02-06 | 3★ / 0.8000 | Immediate |
| Jontez Williams · CB | Iowa State | 2026-01-04 | 4★ / 0.9300 | Immediate |
| Lachlan Carrigan · P | Memphis | 2026-01-09 | — / — | Immediate |
| Terrell Anderson · WR | NC State | 2026-01-05 | 4★ / 0.9400 | Immediate |
| Tucker Ashcraft · TE | Wisconsin | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8800 | Immediate |
| Zuriah Fisher · EDGE | Penn State | 2026-01-12 | 4★ / 0.9200 | Immediate |
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Tuitele · LB | California | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Alex Payne · OT | Virginia | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Anthony Beavers Jr. · S | Wyoming | 2026-01-10 | 4★ / — | Immediate |
| Braylon Conley · CB | Georgia | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Bryan Jackson · RB | Wisconsin | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Carlon Jones · DL | Arkansas | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| DJ Jordan · WR | Arizona | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Devan Thompkins · DL | Alabama | 2026-01-07 | 4★ / 0.9400 | Immediate |
| Gage Roy · QB | Illinois State | 2026-01-21 | — / — | Immediate |
| Garrison Madden · LB | Western Kentucky | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Gus Cordova · EDGE | Mississippi State | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Harry Dalton III · RB | Maryland | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Husan Longstreet · QB | LSU | 2026-01-14 | 4★ / 0.9200 | Immediate |
| James Johnson · CB | Middle Tennessee | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Joey Olsen · TE | New Mexico | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Kevin Longstreet · CB | Not reported | 2026-01-05 | — / — | Immediate |
| Makai Saina · IOL | Purdue | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Matai Tagoa'i · LB | Arizona | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Micah Banuelos · IOL | Purdue | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Prince Strachan · WR | West Virginia | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Steve Miller · S | UConn | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Walker Lyons · TE | BYU | 2026-01-09 | 4★ / 0.9000 | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Continuous appointments at USC. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Lincoln Riley · career 90–28 across 10 seasons and 2 schools
2022–present · Lincoln Riley · active at capture
35–18 · 53 attributed games · 5 seasons
Hired 2021-11-28. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2021–2021 · Donte Williams
3–7 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2021-09-13. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2015–2021 · Clay Helton
45–24 · 69 attributed games · 7 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2015-12-30. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2014–2014 · Steve Sarkisian
9–4 · 13 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2013-12-02. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2013–2013 · Clay Helton
1–0 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Exact effective dates unavailable.
2013–2013 · Ed Orgeron
6–2 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2013-09-29. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2010–2013 · Lane Kiffin
28–15 · 43 attributed games · 4 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2010-01-12. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2001–2009 · Pete Carroll
97–19 · 116 attributed games · 9 seasons
Hired 2000-12-15. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1998–2000 · Paul Hackett
19–18 · 37 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1993–1997 · John Robinson
37–21–2 · 60 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1987–1992 · Larry Smith
44–25–3 · 72 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1983–1986 · Ted Tollner
26–20–1 · 47 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1976–1982 · John Robinson
67–14–2 · 83 attributed games · 7 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1960–1975 · John McKay
127–40–8 · 175 attributed games · 16 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1957–1959 · Don Clark
13–16–1 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1951–1956 · Jess Hill
45–17–1 · 63 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1942–1950 · Jeff Cravath
54–28–8 · 90 attributed games · 9 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1941–1941 · Sam Barry
2–6–1 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1925–1940 · Howard Jones
121–36–13 · 170 attributed games · 16 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1922–1924 · Gus Henderson
25–5 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Lincoln Riley · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | 15.3 | 7.1 | 1 | — |
| 2025 · Lincoln Riley | 9–4 | 7–2 | 0–1 | 16.9 | 15.5 | 14 | 20 |
| 2024 · Lincoln Riley | 7–6 | 4–5 | 1–0 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 17 | — |
| 2023 · Lincoln Riley | 8–5 | 5–4 | 1–0 | 9.4 | 9 | 8 | — |
| 2022 · Lincoln Riley | 11–3 | 8–2 | 0–1 | 18.9 | 11.4 | 70 | 12 |
| 2021 · Clay Helton · incomplete attribution | 1–1 | — | — | -0.6 | 0.4 | 8 | — |
| 2021 · Donte Williams · incomplete attribution | 3–7 | — | — | -0.6 | 0.4 | 8 | — |
| 2020 · Clay Helton | 5–1 | 5–1 | 0–0 | 12.4 | — | 55 | 21 |
| 2019 · Clay Helton | 8–5 | 7–2 | 0–1 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 20 | — |
| 2018 · Clay Helton | 5–7 | 4–5 | 0–0 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 4 | — |
| 2017 · Clay Helton | 11–3 | 9–1 | 0–1 | 17.9 | 11.9 | 4 | 12 |
| 2016 · Clay Helton | 10–3 | 7–2 | 1–0 | 23.6 | 19.4 | 10 | 3 |
| 2015 · Clay Helton · incomplete attribution | 5–4 | — | — | 16.8 | 13.6 | 2 | — |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 23:09:08 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 26 / 138 | 81.8 | 97 / 138 | 29.9 |
| Success rate | 6 / 138 | 96.4 | 73 / 138 | 47.4 |
| Explosiveness | 104 / 138 | 24.8 | 99 / 138 | 28.5 |
| Standard-down success | 17 / 138 | 88.3 | 59 / 138 | 57.7 |
| Passing-down success | 4 / 138 | 97.8 | T105 / 138 | 23.7 |
| Pass PPA | 16 / 138 | 89.1 | 118 / 138 | 14.6 |
| Rush PPA | 90 / 138 | 35.0 | 62 / 138 | 55.5 |
| Pass explosiveness | 97 / 138 | 29.9 | 116 / 138 | 16.1 |
| Rush explosiveness | 127 / 138 | 8.0 | 54 / 138 | 61.3 |
| Line yards | 75 / 138 | 46.0 | 54 / 138 | 61.3 |
| Second-level yards | 70 / 138 | 49.6 | 33 / 138 | 76.6 |
| Open-field yards | 129 / 138 | 6.6 | 63 / 138 | 54.7 |
| Stuff rate | 104 / 138 | 24.8 | 76 / 138 | 45.3 |
| Power success | 94 / 138 | 32.1 | T123 / 138 | 10.6 |
| Havoc | 16 / 138 | 89.1 | 121 / 138 | 12.4 |
| Front-seven havoc | T16 / 138 | 88.7 | T88 / 138 | 35.4 |
| DB havoc | T56 / 138 | 58.0 | 129 / 138 | 6.6 |
| Points / opportunity | 45 / 138 | 67.9 | 119 / 138 | 13.9 |
| Average field position | T93 / 138 | 32.1 | 57 / 138 | 59.1 |
| Field-position expected points | T95 / 138 | 31.0 | 56 / 138 | 59.9 |
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.346 | 103.220 | 52.0% |
| Pass | 0.441 | 124.359 | 94.9% |
| Rush | -1.145 | -17.170 | 5.7% |
| 1st down | 0.145 | 16.871 | 43.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.551 | 57.810 | 55.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.565 | 36.171 | 64.6% |
| Standard downs | 0.214 | 39.152 | 44.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.557 | 64.068 | 73.2% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.119 | 15.784 | 23.2% |
| Pass | 0.106 | 0.951 | 3.0% |
| Rush | 0.120 | 14.833 | 47.3% |
| 1st down | 0.007 | 0.566 | 28.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.039 | 1.715 | 23.4% |
| 3rd down | 0.979 | 9.785 | 10.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.104 | 11.887 | 27.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.205 | 3.897 | 12.1% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.034 | 2.390 | 14.1% |
| Pass | -0.470 | -2.820 | 2.5% |
| Rush | 0.081 | 5.211 | 26.4% |
| 1st down | -0.046 | -1.719 | 15.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.053 | -0.893 | 10.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.091 | 1.179 | 15.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.019 | 1.161 | 16.3% |
| Passing downs | 0.123 | 1.229 | 7.8% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.676 | 28.384 | 11.6% |
| Pass | 0.659 | 27.036 | 21.9% |
| Rush | 1.348 | 1.348 | 0.6% |
| 1st down | 0.573 | 10.896 | 11.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.827 | 9.930 | 10.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.150 | 11.502 | 15.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.651 | 18.893 | 11.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.730 | 9.491 | 13.1% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.484 | 25.187 | 9.1% |
| Pass | 0.610 | 30.496 | 16.8% |
| Rush | -2.654 | -5.309 | 0.8% |
| 1st down | -0.155 | -2.487 | 6.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.509 | 11.208 | 11.7% |
| 3rd down | 1.084 | 10.844 | 10.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.302 | 7.856 | 6.3% |
| Passing downs | 0.667 | 17.331 | 16.6% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.478 | 13.390 | 7.8% |
| Pass | 0.478 | 13.390 | 16.1% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.081 | 0.728 | 5.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.712 | 10.687 | 12.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.494 | 1.975 | 7.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.043 | 0.681 | 5.9% |
| Passing downs | 1.059 | 12.709 | 13.0% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.041 | 0.699 | 7.7% |
| Pass | 0.047 | 0.712 | 15.3% |
| Rush | -0.007 | -0.013 | 1.7% |
| 1st down | 0.346 | 2.421 | 6.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.185 | 1.107 | 8.2% |
| 3rd down | -0.707 | -2.829 | 11.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.295 | 3.248 | 6.5% |
| Passing downs | -0.425 | -2.549 | 11.5% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.226 | 6.094 | 7.3% |
| Pass | -0.505 | -1.516 | 1.6% |
| Rush | 0.317 | 7.609 | 14.0% |
| 1st down | -0.074 | -1.105 | 8.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.404 | 3.637 | 7.5% |
| 3rd down | 1.187 | 3.561 | 4.5% |
| Standard downs | 0.193 | 4.818 | 9.2% |
| Passing downs | 0.638 | 1.276 | 2.0% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.722 | 23.826 | 6.7% |
| Pass | 0.722 | 23.826 | 12.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.323 | 3.557 | 4.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.816 | 9.795 | 7.4% |
| 3rd down | 1.047 | 10.473 | 11.6% |
| Standard downs | 0.296 | 4.447 | 4.3% |
| Passing downs | 1.077 | 19.379 | 12.5% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.669 | 10.701 | 5.6% |
| Pass | 0.669 | 10.701 | 12.2% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.605 | 3.632 | 4.4% |
| 2nd down | 0.459 | 2.295 | 5.3% |
| 3rd down | 2.175 | 8.699 | 8.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.165 | 1.819 | 5.1% |
| Passing downs | 1.776 | 8.882 | 7.4% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.940 | 3.761 | 5.3% |
| Pass | 0.940 | 3.761 | 9.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.703 | -0.703 | 2.9% |
| 2nd down | 2.638 | 5.276 | 7.7% |
| 3rd down | -0.811 | -0.811 | 9.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.703 | 1.405 | 3.8% |
| Passing downs | 1.178 | 2.356 | 8.3% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.349 | 8.722 | 5.0% |
| Pass | 0.553 | 6.638 | 5.0% |
| Rush | 0.160 | 2.084 | 5.4% |
| 1st down | 0.373 | 6.340 | 7.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.048 | 0.145 | 1.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.447 | 2.237 | 6.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.444 | 9.771 | 6.0% |
| Passing downs | -0.350 | -1.049 | 2.3% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.962 | 25.014 | 4.5% |
| Pass | 1.095 | 27.371 | 8.4% |
| Rush | -2.357 | -2.357 | 0.4% |
| 1st down | 0.386 | 4.244 | 4.1% |
| 2nd down | 1.312 | 11.810 | 4.8% |
| 3rd down | 2.257 | 9.027 | 4.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.558 | 8.924 | 3.8% |
| Passing downs | 1.609 | 16.090 | 6.4% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.552 | 6.620 | 4.1% |
| Pass | 0.552 | 6.620 | 7.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.167 | -0.837 | 3.6% |
| 2nd down | -0.100 | -0.299 | 3.2% |
| 3rd down | 1.639 | 4.917 | 5.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.486 | 4.865 | 4.6% |
| Passing downs | 0.878 | 1.755 | 2.7% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.934 | 5.605 | 2.7% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.934 | 5.605 | 6.2% |
| 1st down | -0.438 | -0.876 | 1.9% |
| 2nd down | 1.053 | 2.106 | 2.7% |
| 3rd down | 2.188 | 4.376 | 5.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.648 | 3.241 | 3.0% |
| Passing downs | 2.363 | 2.363 | 1.8% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.203 | 2.238 | 2.5% |
| Pass | 0.203 | 2.238 | 4.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.565 | 1.694 | 1.5% |
| 2nd down | 0.175 | 1.049 | 4.1% |
| 3rd down | -0.252 | -0.505 | 2.6% |
| Standard downs | 0.220 | 1.318 | 1.9% |
| Passing downs | 0.184 | 0.920 | 4.1% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.379 | 4.165 | 2.2% |
| Pass | 0.379 | 4.165 | 4.1% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.431 | 2.589 | 2.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.322 | 0.967 | 1.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.305 | 0.609 | 2.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.417 | 3.756 | 2.5% |
| Passing downs | 0.204 | 0.409 | 1.5% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.853 | 9.380 | 2.2% |
| Pass | 0.853 | 9.380 | 4.2% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.601 | 3.003 | 2.1% |
| 2nd down | 1.477 | 7.385 | 3.0% |
| 3rd down | -1.009 | -1.009 | 1.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.307 | 2.148 | 1.9% |
| Passing downs | 1.808 | 7.232 | 2.9% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.039 | 4.157 | 1.9% |
| Pass | 1.039 | 4.157 | 4.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.688 | 0.688 | 1.0% |
| 2nd down | 1.489 | 1.489 | 1.5% |
| 3rd down | -0.019 | -0.019 | 2.4% |
| Standard downs | 1.392 | 4.176 | 2.0% |
| Passing downs | -0.019 | -0.019 | 1.7% |
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.452 | 0.452 | 1.4% |
| Pass | 0.452 | 0.452 | 3.4% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.452 | 0.452 | 2.8% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.452 | 0.452 | 1.9% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | 0.241 | 82nd138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.510 | 96th138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.173 | 24th138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | 0.421 | 89th138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | 0.056 | 35th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | 0.130 | 30th138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.411 | 47th138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.277 | 28th138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.128 | 12th138 teams | higher |
Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 98% of 290 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.3 yards (35th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 6.0 per completion. Completion 67.6%, 8.4 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.46.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 67.4% | 60.7% | +6.6 | 285 / 290 |
| Defense allowed | 65.1% | 61.4% | +3.7 | 212 / 214 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is USC.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 290 | 98% | 8.3 | 6.0 | 67.6% | 0.46 | +6.6 pp | 285 |
| Passing defense | 214 | 99% | 8.4 | 6.0 | 65.0% | 0.40 | +3.7 pp | 212 |
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 274 | 3.9 | 46.9% | 0.13 | 3.10 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 17.3% | 69.6% |
| Defense allowed | 251 | 3.7 | 42.3% | 0.10 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 16.2% | 81.3% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 267 / 274 | 259 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 251 / 254 · 98.8% |
| Defense allowed | 247 / 251 | 243 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 233 / 234 · 99.6% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +6.6 pp. 8 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Fresno State | 31 | 30 | 93.3% | 64.8% | +28.6 pp | 6.0 | 0.89 | 37 | 3.8 | -0.28 |
| W1 | San José State | 36 | 36 | 83.3% | 61.9% | +21.4 pp | 7.4 | 0.41 | 40 | 4.1 | 0.43 |
| W2 | Louisiana | 31 | 30 | 66.7% | 59.5% | +7.1 pp | 7.5 | 0.74 | 41 | 5.2 | 0.20 |
| W3 | Rutgers | 32 | 32 | 62.5% | 56.6% | +5.9 pp | 10.7 | 0.48 | 32 | 6.0 | 0.33 |
| W4 | Oregon | 42 | 42 | 54.8% | 58.7% | -3.9 pp | 10.0 | 0.43 | 33 | 3.6 | 0.20 |
| W5 | Washington | 34 | 33 | 60.6% | 66.0% | -5.4 pp | 6.2 | 0.30 | 35 | 3.3 | 0.09 |
| W6 | Penn State | 33 | 31 | 61.3% | 54.6% | +6.7 pp | 12.5 | 0.77 | 30 | 4.6 | 0.18 |
| W8 | Wisconsin | 51 | 51 | 62.7% | 62.9% | -0.1 pp | 6.6 | -0.02 | 26 | -0.4 | -0.28 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
13 punts · 49.5 gross yards/punt · 41.3 net yards/punt
2 inside the 20 · 2 touchbacks · 0 blocked
Known gross yards: 13/13 punts. Known net yards: 10/13 punts.
15 returns · 15.6 yards/return · 1 touchdowns
1 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 14/15 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 · Wisconsin | 1 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 1/1 |
| Week 6 · Penn State | 2 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 2/2 |
| Week 5 · Washington | 5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | 4/5 |
| Week 4 · Oregon | 1 | 48.0 | — | 0/1 |
| Week 3 · Rutgers | 1 | 56.0 | — | 0/1 |