SRS ratings
Team strength in points, from scoring margins and preseason carryover.
2026 through CFBD Week 8, entering Week 9. 138/138 FBS teams · 566 completed games. Snapshot: 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is highest SRS among the 138 FBS roster teams, including teams with only a preseason prior. Higher ratings are better. Equal ratings take separate ranks in team-name order. Schedule rank covers 138 FBS teams with a current schedule strength; higher schedule strength means harder opponents. Equal schedules share the best rank and later ranks skip places.
How sure are these? Each rating is give or take about 9 points (a 95% range), so none of the 137 next-door pairs on the board are clearly apart: treat a few places either way as a tie. Under each rank is where the team landed in 90% of 4,000 simulated boards. North Dakota State and Sacramento State get wider bands because there is no prior-season rating to lean on. It is the model’s own estimate from game-to-game scoring noise; in past seasons, ratings from Week 9 on still moved about 1.4× more than this by season’s end as teams changed, so read it as a floor.
138 of 138 teams · national ranks retained; conference filter does not rerank
| Rank | Team | SRS points | Schedule | Games | Movement | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1likely 1–17 | Notre DameFBS Independents | +19.89±9.3 | +1.07#35 of 138 | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 2likely 1–19 | MiamiACC | +19.25±9.2 | -1.82#58 of 138FBS only +1.66 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 3likely 1–19 | Ohio StateBig Ten | +19.19±9.3 | +2.15#21 of 138 | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 4likely 1–20 | AlabamaSEC | +18.66±8.8 | +7.63#2 of 138 | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 5likely 1–20 | LSUSEC | +18.36±8.7 | +2.05#23 of 138FBS only +5.98 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 6likely 1–23 | IndianaBig Ten | +17.33±8.7 | +2.42#19 of 138FBS only +5.91 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 7likely 2–30 | GeorgiaSEC | +15.97±9.3 | -0.47#50 of 138FBS only +3.10 (1 FCS) | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 8likely 2–39 | Ole MissSEC | +14.02±9.3 | +5.30#7 of 138 | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 9likely 3–42 | TexasSEC | +13.57±9.3 | +9.35#1 of 138 | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 10likely 3–42 | UtahBig 12 | +13.12±9.2 | -3.49#78 of 138FBS only -0.43 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 1 | Available |
| 11likely 4–48 | Wake ForestACC | +12.07±9.3 | -0.69#51 of 138 | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 12likely 4–48 | UCLABig Ten | +12.00±9.2 | +0.53#37 of 138 | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 13likely 4–48 | ArizonaBig 12 | +11.98±9.2 | -4.91#94 of 138FBS only -2.01 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 9 | Available |
| 14likely 4–48 | TennesseeSEC | +11.95±8.8 | +1.21#34 of 138FBS only +4.41 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 15likely 5–53 | BYUBig 12 | +11.22±9.2 | +1.74#27 of 138FBS only +5.53 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
| 16likely 5–55 | NorthwesternBig Ten | +10.95±9.1 | -3.27#73 of 138FBS only -0.23 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 17likely 5–54 | NebraskaBig Ten | +10.82±9.2 | -1.82#59 of 138FBS only +1.86 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 18likely 6–56 | Texas TechBig 12 | +10.71±9.2 | -3.46#77 of 138FBS only -0.38 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 9 | Available |
| 19likely 6–58 | HoustonBig 12 | +9.98±8.8 | +2.57#18 of 138FBS only +6.08 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 20likely 8–61 | James MadisonSun Belt | +9.51±8.8 | -6.42#111 of 138FBS only -4.05 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 21likely 8–63 | LouisvilleACC | +9.17±9.3 | +1.76#26 of 138FBS only +5.83 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 22likely 7–65 | WisconsinBig Ten | +8.97±9.2 | +2.07#22 of 138FBS only +6.12 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 10 | Available |
| 23likely 8–66 | OregonBig Ten | +8.55±9.2 | +3.77#9 of 138FBS only +8.25 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 24likely 8–67 | Boise StatePac-12 | +8.47±9.2 | -3.99#86 of 138FBS only -0.68 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 25likely 9–64 | KentuckySEC | +8.46±8.8 | +3.22#14 of 138FBS only +6.66 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 26likely 9–67 | MissouriSEC | +8.45±9.2 | +0.53#38 of 138FBS only +4.23 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
| 27likely 9–69 | New MexicoMountain West | +8.10±9.2 | -7.07#118 of 138FBS only -4.38 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 28likely 9–71 | SMUACC | +7.81±9.2 | -3.82#81 of 138FBS only -0.65 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 17 | Available |
| 29likely 11–72 | FloridaSEC | +7.43±9.3 | +3.26#12 of 138FBS only +7.55 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
| 30likely 10–73 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | +7.38±9.2 | -1.26#54 of 138FBS only +2.43 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 12 | Available |
| 31likely 11–72 | USCBig Ten | +7.22±8.9 | +2.00#24 of 138 | 8 | Down 10 | Available |
| 32likely 11–74 | Penn StateBig Ten | +7.11±9.3 | +1.55#32 of 138 | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 33likely 11–74 | Oregon StatePac-12 | +7.09±9.2 | -6.38#110 of 138FBS only -3.42 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 34likely 12–71 | Texas A&MSEC | +7.08±8.7 | +1.72#29 of 138FBS only +5.96 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 35likely 11–76 | IowaBig Ten | +6.88±9.2 | -2.07#62 of 138FBS only +1.55 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 10 | Available |
| 36likely 12–76 | South CarolinaSEC | +6.83±9.2 | +2.68#16 of 138FBS only +6.86 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 37likely 12–76 | Florida StateACC | +6.69±9.2 | +4.01#8 of 138FBS only +8.85 (1 FCS) | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 38likely 12–77 | LibertyConference USA | +6.67±9.2 | -9.02#134 of 138FBS only -6.61 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 10 | Available |
| 39likely 13–77 | OklahomaSEC | +6.47±9.3 | +5.95#6 of 138 | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 40likely 13–80 | MichiganBig Ten | +6.07±9.3 | +3.56#11 of 138 | 7 | Up 6 | Available |
| 41likely 11–84 | North Dakota StateMountain West | +5.92±10.2 | -6.37#109 of 138FBS only -4.06 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Missing |
| 42likely 13–80 | North TexasAmerican Athletic | +5.88±9.2 | -4.35#89 of 138FBS only -0.95 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
| 43likely 13–80 | BaylorBig 12 | +5.87±9.2 | -2.81#70 of 138FBS only +0.51 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 10 | Available |
| 44likely 14–82 | AuburnSEC | +5.67±9.3 | +6.91#4 of 138 | 7 | Down 14 | Available |
| 45likely 16–85 | DukeACC | +4.78±9.2 | -4.39#90 of 138FBS only -1.04 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 46likely 18–88 | TCUBig 12 | +4.38±9.2 | -0.43#49 of 138FBS only +3.25 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 10 | Available |
| 47likely 19–86 | PittsburghACC | +4.19±8.7 | -0.04#44 of 138FBS only +3.43 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 6 | Available |
| 48likely 19–90 | ArmyAmerican Athletic | +3.73±9.2 | -4.89#93 of 138FBS only -2.07 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 49likely 18–91 | IllinoisBig Ten | +3.72±9.2 | +0.42#40 of 138FBS only +4.43 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 12 | Available |
| 50likely 20–89 | UTSAAmerican Athletic | +3.69±8.8 | -3.38#76 of 138FBS only -0.74 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 15 | Available |
| 51likely 20–91 | CincinnatiBig 12 | +3.52±9.2 | -0.21#45 of 138FBS only +3.51 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 19 | Available |
| 52likely 21–93 | UCFBig 12 | +3.51±9.2 | +2.17#20 of 138FBS only +6.10 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 53likely 20–93 | Mississippi StateSEC | +3.45±9.3 | +6.55#5 of 138 | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 54likely 22–93 | South FloridaAmerican Athletic | +3.08±9.2 | -7.48#120 of 138FBS only -4.70 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 55likely 22–94 | North CarolinaACC | +2.84±9.2 | +1.61#30 of 138FBS only +5.54 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 8 | Available |
| 56likely 25–95 | Virginia TechACC | +2.56±8.8 | -5.54#98 of 138FBS only -3.16 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 57likely 25–96 | VirginiaACC | +2.49±8.7 | -1.30#55 of 138FBS only +1.72 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 58likely 25–97 | MemphisAmerican Athletic | +2.46±8.8 | -6.58#113 of 138FBS only -4.09 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 59likely 24–100 | Texas StatePac-12 | +2.15±9.2 | -3.88#84 of 138FBS only -0.42 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 60likely 24–100 | WashingtonBig Ten | +2.07±9.3 | -3.05#72 of 138FBS only +0.44 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 61likely 25–100 | Kansas StateBig 12 | +1.97±9.2 | -2.74#68 of 138FBS only +0.43 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 11 | Available |
| 62likely 26–101 | ClemsonACC | +1.52±9.2 | +0.74#36 of 138FBS only +5.57 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 63likely 29–100 | ToledoMid-American | +1.38±8.7 | -8.27#130 of 138FBS only -6.14 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 64likely 28–103 | Louisiana TechSun Belt | +1.30±9.1 | -3.90#85 of 138FBS only -0.92 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 12 | Available |
| 65likely 29–104 | KansasBig 12 | +1.01±9.2 | -0.35#48 of 138FBS only +3.13 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 66likely 29–105 | PurdueBig Ten | +0.88±9.3 | +3.74#10 of 138FBS only +7.92 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 67likely 30–105 | Fresno StatePac-12 | +0.87±9.3 | -4.93#95 of 138 | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 68likely 31–104 | Western MichiganMid-American | +0.84±8.7 | -5.93#103 of 138FBS only -3.50 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 69likely 31–107 | Iowa StateBig 12 | +0.54±9.2 | +1.74#28 of 138FBS only +5.59 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 17 | Available |
| 70likely 31–106 | UConnFBS Independents | +0.47±9.2 | -8.50#132 of 138FBS only -6.12 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 7 | Available |
| 71likely 33–106 | West VirginiaBig 12 | +0.46±8.8 | +0.46#39 of 138FBS only +3.71 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 72likely 35–107 | Michigan StateBig Ten | +0.05±8.8 | +7.60#3 of 138 | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 73likely 34–110 | MinnesotaBig Ten | -0.24±9.3 | -2.48#66 of 138FBS only +0.77 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 7 | Available |
| 74likely 36–110 | LouisianaSun Belt | -0.55±8.8 | -8.43#131 of 138FBS only -6.41 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 12 | Available |
| 75likely 35–112 | UNLVMountain West | -0.87±9.3 | -2.64#67 of 138 | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 76likely 39–113 | SyracuseACC | -1.04±9.2 | -1.12#53 of 138FBS only +2.26 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 8 | Available |
| 77likely 41–112 | TulsaAmerican Athletic | -1.22±8.7 | -4.14#87 of 138FBS only -1.36 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 78likely 40–112 | OhioMid-American | -1.24±8.7 | -9.46#137 of 138FBS only -7.30 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 79likely 39–114 | East CarolinaAmerican Athletic | -1.32±9.2 | -5.37#97 of 138FBS only -2.18 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 8 | Available |
| 80likely 40–116 | Boston CollegeACC | -1.58±9.2 | -2.41#65 of 138FBS only +1.12 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 20 | Available |
| 81likely 41–115 | Air ForceMountain West | -1.75±9.2 | -7.98#127 of 138FBS only -5.59 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 17 | Available |
| 82likely 41–116 | Georgia SouthernSun Belt | -1.81±9.2 | -2.98#71 of 138FBS only +0.22 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 4 | Available |
| 83likely 44–117 | ArkansasSEC | -2.10±9.2 | +2.75#15 of 138FBS only +6.78 (1 FCS) | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 84likely 42–117 | Georgia StateSun Belt | -2.14±9.2 | -7.65#124 of 138FBS only -5.16 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 12 | Available |
| 85likely 44–118 | NavyAmerican Athletic | -2.28±9.2 | -3.86#83 of 138FBS only -0.89 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 3 | Available |
| 86likely 43–118 | NC StateACC | -2.52±9.2 | -2.22#63 of 138FBS only +1.22 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 87likely 45–119 | Jacksonville StateConference USA | -2.80±9.3 | -6.24#106 of 138FBS only -3.45 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 1 | Available |
| 88likely 45–120 | Arizona StateBig 12 | -2.90±9.2 | -0.32#47 of 138FBS only +3.17 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 13 | Available |
| 89likely 46–120 | TulaneAmerican Athletic | -2.97±9.2 | +0.23#42 of 138 | 7 | Down 18 | Available |
| 90likely 52–124 | App StateSun Belt | -4.01±9.2 | -6.88#114 of 138FBS only -4.29 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 12 | Available |
| 91likely 53–124 | Florida InternationalConference USA | -4.22±9.2 | -7.85#125 of 138FBS only -5.06 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
| 92likely 56–123 | VanderbiltSEC | -4.45±8.8 | +1.81#25 of 138FBS only +5.08 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 93likely 55–124 | South AlabamaSun Belt | -4.49±9.2 | -7.56#122 of 138FBS only -5.05 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 3 | Available |
| 94likely 57–123 | Miami (OH)Mid-American | -4.52±8.7 | -7.98#128 of 138FBS only -5.82 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 95likely 56–125 | MarylandBig Ten | -4.71±9.2 | +2.59#17 of 138FBS only +6.60 (1 FCS) | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 96likely 55–126 | NevadaMountain West | -4.87±9.2 | -8.61#133 of 138FBS only -6.18 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 7 | Available |
| 97likely 59–124 | Arkansas StateSun Belt | -4.89±8.7 | -5.71#101 of 138FBS only -3.25 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 98likely 58–127 | Georgia TechACC | -5.43±9.2 | -2.81#69 of 138FBS only +0.64 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 12 | Available |
| 99likely 61–128 | Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic | -5.46±9.2 | -7.02#117 of 138FBS only -3.94 (1 FCS) | 7 | Unchanged | Available |
| 100likely 60–127 | RutgersBig Ten | -5.70±9.2 | -0.21#46 of 138FBS only +3.85 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 7 | Available |
| 101likely 64–127 | San Diego StatePac-12 | -5.79±8.8 | +0.09#43 of 138FBS only +3.15 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 102likely 62–128 | DelawareConference USA | -5.85±9.2 | -6.42#112 of 138FBS only -3.76 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 15 | Available |
| 103likely 63–128 | Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | -6.06±9.2 | -5.57#99 of 138FBS only -2.62 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 104likely 63–128 | ColoradoBig 12 | -6.21±9.2 | +3.22#13 of 138FBS only +7.45 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 13 | Available |
| 105likely 64–129 | TempleAmerican Athletic | -6.53±9.2 | -3.73#80 of 138FBS only -0.64 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 1 | Available |
| 106likely 65–130 | New Mexico StateConference USA | -6.78±9.3 | -6.14#104 of 138FBS only -3.39 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 107likely 69–129 | Washington StatePac-12 | -7.02±8.8 | +0.30#41 of 138FBS only +3.66 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 108likely 70–129 | CaliforniaACC | -7.10±8.7 | +1.43#33 of 138FBS only +4.95 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 10 | Available |
| 109likely 68–130 | Utah StatePac-12 | -7.32±9.2 | -1.97#61 of 138FBS only +1.35 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 4 | Available |
| 110likely 71–130 | Hawai'iMountain West | -7.39±8.8 | -6.17#105 of 138 | 8 | Up 16 | Available |
| 111likely 72–131 | StanfordACC | -7.74±8.8 | +1.56#31 of 138FBS only +5.81 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 112likely 73–132 | Western KentuckyConference USA | -7.94±9.2 | -4.57#91 of 138FBS only -1.17 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 113likely 74–132 | Colorado StatePac-12 | -8.17±9.2 | -1.83#60 of 138FBS only +1.64 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 7 | Available |
| 114likely 74–132 | Middle TennesseeConference USA | -8.22±9.2 | -6.99#116 of 138FBS only -4.41 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 10 | Available |
| 115likely 77–131 | WyomingMountain West | -8.25±8.8 | -9.18#135 of 138FBS only -7.16 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 116likely 77–131 | MassachusettsMid-American | -8.38±8.7 | -11.85#138 of 138FBS only -7.90 (2 FCS) | 8 | Down 8 | Available |
| 117likely 74–132 | UABAmerican Athletic | -8.45±9.2 | -5.80#102 of 138FBS only -2.47 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 118likely 78–132 | Central MichiganMid-American | -8.47±8.7 | -3.34#75 of 138FBS only -0.58 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 119likely 78–132 | San José StateMountain West | -8.63±8.8 | -8.10#129 of 138FBS only -5.91 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 120likely 82–133 | RiceAmerican Athletic | -9.25±8.7 | -0.92#52 of 138FBS only +2.02 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 121likely 80–132 | BuffaloMid-American | -9.25±8.7 | -7.98#126 of 138FBS only -2.87 (2 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 122likely 80–133 | Kennesaw StateConference USA | -9.30±9.2 | -3.64#79 of 138FBS only -0.60 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 17 | Available |
| 123likely 82–132 | Eastern MichiganMid-American | -9.30±8.4 | -7.54#121 of 138FBS only -5.38 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 1 | Available |
| 124likely 82–134 | TroySun Belt | -9.91±9.2 | -9.44#136 of 138FBS only -7.13 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 15 | Available |
| 125likely 85–134 | Old DominionSun Belt | -10.09±8.8 | -2.29#64 of 138FBS only +0.48 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 11 | Available |
| 126likely 86–134 | MarshallSun Belt | -10.24±9.2 | -5.58#100 of 138FBS only -2.38 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 127likely 91–135 | Southern MissSun Belt | -11.42±9.2 | -5.09#96 of 138FBS only -2.25 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 3 | Available |
| 128likely 92–136 | Missouri StateConference USA | -11.70±9.2 | -6.26#107 of 138FBS only -3.47 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 7 | Available |
| 129likely 95–135 | Kent StateMid-American | -11.95±8.7 | -3.33#74 of 138FBS only -0.57 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 130likely 94–135 | Bowling GreenMid-American | -11.98±8.8 | -7.36#119 of 138FBS only -5.20 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 131likely 98–136 | Ball StateMid-American | -12.59±8.8 | -4.33#88 of 138FBS only -1.70 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 132likely 99–136 | Sam HoustonConference USA | -12.92±9.2 | -4.61#92 of 138FBS only -1.44 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 3 | Available |
| 133likely 114–138 | AkronMid-American | -16.43±8.7 | -6.27#108 of 138FBS only -3.88 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 134likely 115–138 | UTEPMountain West | -16.91±9.3 | -1.56#56 of 138FBS only +2.00 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 1 | Available |
| 135likely 115–138 | CharlotteAmerican Athletic | -17.17±9.2 | -1.73#57 of 138FBS only +1.66 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 1 | Available |
| 136likely 117–138 | UL MonroeSun Belt | -17.75±9.2 | -6.90#115 of 138FBS only -4.06 (1 FCS) | 7 | Up 2 | Available |
| 137likely 124–138 | Sacramento StateMid-American | -20.33±10.1 | -7.65#123 of 138FBS only -5.48 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Missing |
| 138likely 128–138 | Northern IllinoisMountain West | -21.35±9.2 | -3.83#82 of 138FBS only -0.68 (1 FCS) | 7 | Down 2 | Available |
Method and validation
Local SRS uses 2025 regular-season and postseason results as a prior. It is distinct from CFBD SRS and SP+. Rating gaps are points, not win probabilities.
Missing prior: North Dakota State, Sacramento State.
How a rating breaks down: this season’s games give an average margin (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) plus schedule strength, the opponents’ average rating; both count recent games a bit more. The rating blends that with the preseason prior, which still carries about 25% of the weight for a typical team entering Week 9. Every team’s split is in the snapshot JSON as game_margin, schedule_strength, fbs_schedule_strength, prior_weight and preseason_prior.
How the ranges are made: each rating’s ± comes from the fit itself plus a noise level of 12.8 points per game, measured by replaying 7,401 games from 2017–2025 week by week using only earlier results. At this point of the season, that noise level put 95% of game results inside their 95% forecast range. Rank ranges come from 4,000 simulated boards with a fixed seed. Source: exports/srs_rating_uncertainty_20261005/summary.json.
Historical forecast evidence
2024–2025 (previously inspected) event-time replay uses only earlier game outcomes, with forecast mappings trained through 2023; source revisions were not reconstructed. These seasons have already been inspected; they are not an untouched holdout.
- Early-season margin error
- 14.78 points · 389 games
- All-game margin error
- 12.93 points · 1514 games
- Forecast Brier score
- 0.1852
- all confirmation games
Margin error is mean absolute error; lower is better. Brier score measures probability forecast error, with lower values better. It does not measure calibration alone. This evidence evaluates a separate frozen forecast mapping, not probabilities inferred from the strength scale. Frozen forecast mapping trained through 2023. Retrospective calibration intercept -0.002, slope 1.048 (ideal 0 and 1); not a guarantee for future games.
Snapshot and evidence details