Predictive team strength

Local SRS estimates future team strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins and preseason carryover.

2026 through CFBD Week 2, entering Week 3. 138/138 FBS teams · 185 completed games. Snapshot: 2026-09-17.

This is the lab’s local SRS model. It is separate from CFBD’s provider SRS and SP+ ratings. Preseason carryover uses 2025 regular-season and postseason results; teams missing that prior are identified below.

Early schedules provide limited evidence and may connect only small groups of opponents. Carryover stabilizes estimates, but rankings can still move substantially.

Higher ratings estimate stronger teams. Rating differences feed the forecast mapping; ranks and rating gaps are not win probabilities. This board does not change the published picks.

Missing prior: North Dakota State, Sacramento State.

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138 of 138 teams · original ranking order

Higher SRS ratings estimate stronger teams. Movement compares the previous week’s ranking; games are completed games used this season.
Rank	Team	SRS points	Games	Movement	Prior
1	Notre DameFBS Independents	+17.86	2	Up 2	Available
2	IndianaBig Ten	+17.66	2	Down 1	Available
3	Texas A&MSEC	+16.60	2	Up 6	Available
4	AlabamaSEC	+16.48	2	Up 1	Available
5	LSUSEC	+15.54	2	Up 6	Available
6	Ohio StateBig Ten	+14.87	2	Down 2	Available
7	MiamiACC	+14.23	2	Down 5	Available
8	USCBig Ten	+13.37	3	Unchanged	Available
9	Penn StateBig Ten	+13.23	2	Down 2	Available
10	TexasSEC	+12.51	2	Down 4	Available
11	UtahBig 12	+11.69	2	Up 6	Available
12	Mississippi StateSEC	+11.14	2	Up 13	Available
13	PittsburghACC	+9.67	2	Down 1	Available
14	GeorgiaSEC	+9.46	2	Up 7	Available
15	VirginiaACC	+9.20	2	Down 1	Available
16	AuburnSEC	+9.19	2	Up 35	Available
17	NebraskaBig Ten	+8.98	2	Up 7	Available
18	Ole MissSEC	+8.96	2	Up 2	Available
19	TennesseeSEC	+8.72	2	Up 11	Available
20	OklahomaSEC	+8.71	2	Down 7	Available
21	FloridaSEC	+8.46	2	Down 3	Available
22	MissouriSEC	+8.24	2	Up 11	Available
23	IowaBig Ten	+7.97	2	Down 13	Available
24	South CarolinaSEC	+7.87	2	Down 5	Available
25	Kansas StateBig 12	+7.56	2	Up 15	Available
26	UCLABig Ten	+7.54	2	Up 13	Available
27	North Dakota StateMountain West	+7.10	3	Down 5	Missing
28	BYUBig 12	+7.01	2	Down 2	Available
29	SMUACC	+6.78	2	Down 6	Available
30	MarylandBig Ten	+6.60	2	Up 32	Available
31	DukeACC	+6.24	2	Unchanged	Available
32	Michigan StateBig Ten	+6.20	2	Up 24	Available
33	MichiganBig Ten	+5.85	2	Up 15	Available
34	South FloridaAmerican Athletic	+5.71	2	Up 2	Available
35	North TexasAmerican Athletic	+5.61	2	Up 51	Available
36	LouisvilleACC	+5.46	2	Up 1	Available
37	Boise StatePac-12	+5.22	2	Up 12	Available
38	Texas TechBig 12	+5.19	2	Down 3	Available
39	New MexicoMountain West	+5.16	2	Down 12	Available
40	Virginia TechACC	+5.02	2	Up 23	Available
41	Wake ForestACC	+4.80	2	Down 7	Available
42	OregonBig Ten	+4.78	2	Down 27	Available
43	CincinnatiBig 12	+4.56	2	Unchanged	Available
44	Western MichiganMid-American	+4.20	2	Up 8	Available
45	James MadisonSun Belt	+3.92	2	Down 13	Available
46	IllinoisBig Ten	+3.78	2	Down 17	Available
47	BaylorBig 12	+3.70	2	Up 23	Available
48	Florida StateACC	+3.40	2	Down 10	Available
49	HoustonBig 12	+3.35	2	Up 4	Available
50	ToledoMid-American	+3.31	2	Up 18	Available
51	Iowa StateBig 12	+3.22	2	Up 6	Available
52	UCFBig 12	+2.86	2	Up 9	Available
53	TCUBig 12	+2.27	2	Up 21	Available
54	VanderbiltSEC	+2.17	2	Up 10	Available
55	WashingtonBig Ten	+2.05	2	Down 39	Available
56	ArmyAmerican Athletic	+1.84	2	Down 10	Available
57	ArizonaBig 12	+1.80	2	Down 13	Available
58	UTSAAmerican Athletic	+1.71	2	Unchanged	Available
59	Georgia StateSun Belt	+1.58	2	Up 29	Available
60	MemphisAmerican Athletic	+1.47	3	Down 32	Available
61	Fresno StatePac-12	+1.42	2	Up 54	Available
62	North CarolinaACC	+1.34	2	Up 15	Available
63	West VirginiaBig 12	+1.25	2	Up 24	Available
64	Arizona StateBig 12	+0.35	2	Down 23	Available
65	Colorado StatePac-12	+0.35	2	Up 15	Available
66	San Diego StatePac-12	+0.04	2	Down 19	Available
67	Air ForceMountain West	-0.02	2	Unchanged	Available
68	ClemsonACC	-0.36	2	Up 37	Available
69	NC StateACC	-0.40	2	Up 26	Available
70	App StateSun Belt	-0.41	2	Up 9	Available
71	ColoradoBig 12	-0.44	2	Up 7	Available
72	KansasBig 12	-0.76	2	Down 27	Available
73	TulaneAmerican Athletic	-0.77	2	Up 9	Available
74	TulsaAmerican Athletic	-0.88	2	Up 17	Available
75	DelawareConference USA	-1.31	2	Unchanged	Available
76	Coastal CarolinaSun Belt	-1.48	2	Up 32	Available
77	LouisianaSun Belt	-1.81	2	Up 7	Available
78	PurdueBig Ten	-1.88	2	Up 14	Available
79	Louisiana TechSun Belt	-2.15	2	Down 19	Available
80	KentuckySEC	-2.37	2	Down 21	Available
81	MinnesotaBig Ten	-2.47	2	Down 31	Available
82	Florida InternationalConference USA	-2.50	2	Up 17	Available
83	NorthwesternBig Ten	-2.58	1	Up 7	Available
84	NavyAmerican Athletic	-2.62	2	Down 19	Available
85	WisconsinBig Ten	-2.70	2	Up 17	Available
86	SyracuseACC	-2.74	2	Down 10	Available
87	South AlabamaSun Belt	-2.99	2	Up 7	Available
88	Kennesaw StateConference USA	-3.25	2	Down 22	Available
89	Arkansas StateSun Belt	-3.28	2	Up 18	Available
90	Oklahoma StateBig 12	-3.46	2	Up 34	Available
91	Jacksonville StateConference USA	-3.46	3	Up 6	Available
92	Georgia TechACC	-3.59	2	Down 20	Available
93	Old DominionSun Belt	-3.66	2	Down 24	Available
94	UConnFBS Independents	-3.68	2	Down 40	Available
95	Missouri StateConference USA	-3.82	2	Up 30	Available
96	CaliforniaACC	-3.92	2	Up 21	Available
97	Georgia SouthernSun Belt	-4.03	2	Down 16	Available
98	East CarolinaAmerican Athletic	-4.06	2	Up 6	Available
99	AkronMid-American	-4.27	2	Up 23	Available
100	Miami (OH)Mid-American	-4.32	2	Up 23	Available
101	MassachusettsMid-American	-4.45	2	Up 5	Available
102	TempleAmerican Athletic	-4.48	2	Down 4	Available
103	UNLVMountain West	-4.72	3	Down 48	Available
104	OhioMid-American	-5.22	2	Up 7	Available
105	Boston CollegeACC	-5.27	2	Up 7	Available
106	Washington StatePac-12	-5.60	2	Down 35	Available
107	Texas StatePac-12	-5.75	2	Up 2	Available
108	TroySun Belt	-5.88	2	Down 7	Available
109	Southern MissSun Belt	-5.93	2	Down 36	Available
110	New Mexico StateConference USA	-6.19	3	Down 10	Available
111	San José StateMountain West	-6.23	3	Down 22	Available
112	Middle TennesseeConference USA	-6.34	2	Down 2	Available
113	Oregon StatePac-12	-6.66	2	Unchanged	Available
114	ArkansasSEC	-6.88	2	Down 21	Available
115	StanfordACC	-7.06	2	Down 1	Available
116	RiceAmerican Athletic	-7.19	2	Down 13	Available
117	MarshallSun Belt	-7.20	2	Up 1	Available
118	Hawai'iMountain West	-7.34	3	Up 1	Available
119	UTEPMountain West	-7.42	2	Up 14	Available
120	Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic	-7.66	2	Up 12	Available
121	LibertyConference USA	-8.05	2	Down 36	Available
122	RutgersBig Ten	-8.07	2	Down 2	Available
123	Sacramento StateMid-American	-8.22	3	Down 40	Missing
124	Sam HoustonConference USA	-8.42	2	Down 8	Available
125	UABAmerican Athletic	-8.48	2	Down 4	Available
126	Eastern MichiganMid-American	-8.77	3	Down 30	Available
127	Ball StateMid-American	-9.08	2	Up 4	Available
128	NevadaMountain West	-9.39	2	Down 86	Available
129	Utah StatePac-12	-9.43	2	Up 7	Available
130	BuffaloMid-American	-11.06	2	Down 1	Available
131	Kent StateMid-American	-11.17	2	Up 3	Available
132	UL MonroeSun Belt	-11.84	2	Up 3	Available
133	WyomingMountain West	-11.92	2	Down 6	Available
134	Central MichiganMid-American	-13.43	2	Down 8	Available
135	Western KentuckyConference USA	-16.55	2	Down 7	Available
136	Bowling GreenMid-American	-16.61	2	Up 1	Available
137	Northern IllinoisMountain West	-16.79	2	Down 7	Available
138	CharlotteAmerican Athletic	-17.02	2	Unchanged	Available

Historical forecast evidence

2024–2025 (previously inspected) event-time replay uses only earlier game outcomes, with forecast mappings trained through 2023; source revisions were not reconstructed. These seasons have already been inspected; they are not an untouched holdout.

Early-season margin error: 14.78 points · 389 games
All-game margin error: 12.93 points · 1514 games
Forecast Brier score: 0.1852; all confirmation games

Margin error is mean absolute error; lower is better. Brier score measures probability forecast error, with lower values better. It does not measure calibration alone. This evidence evaluates a separate frozen forecast mapping, not probabilities inferred from the strength scale. Frozen forecast mapping trained through 2023. Retrospective calibration intercept -0.002, slope 1.048 (ideal 0 and 1); not a guarantee for future games.

Snapshot and evidence details