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Results

Model picks and actual wagers, kept separate.

Model results

Every settled pick across all weeks, graded at the line the model saw when it made the pick. Full-game spreads.

Every pick the model has made since Week 1, nothing hidden. Win rate leaves out pushes; you need 52.4% to break even at −110. Units assume 1 unit on every pick. Quote gaps compare the saved pick spread with a recorded CFBD market quote, often a postgame median across books. Positive means a larger picked-side spread. Verified CLV is unavailable: book-specific closing time, spread price and a close definition are not recorded per row. These proxies do not establish a tradeable closing quote, bettor skill or model edge.

Record

111–110–2

Win rate

50.2%

Units

-9.09

Average quote gap (proxy)

-0.04 pts

By model
GroupPicksRecordWin rateUnitsQuote gap (proxy)
In-season EPA model11457–56–150.4%-4.18+0.00 pts (42 of 114 positive)
Preseason SP+ ratings10954–54–150.0%-4.91-0.08 pts (34 of 109 positive)

Weeks 1–5 picks come from preseason SP+ ratings plus home field; the in-season EPA model takes over once it has enough games (Week 6). The preseason lane did not hold up in backtests, so treat its record as a live test.

By lane
GroupPicksRecordWin rateUnitsQuote gap (proxy)
⭐ C1 plays66–0100.0%+5.45+0.08 pts (4 of 6 positive)
Standard picks (3+ point gap)217105–110–248.8%-14.55-0.04 pts (72 of 217 positive)

⭐ C1 plays are in-season picks in the rule card’s best spot: a gap of 14+ points in weeks 6–9, or 12–14 points in weeks 10–16. C1 is a tag, not a filter; every other pick is still listed.

By week
GroupPicksRecordWin rateUnitsQuote gap (proxy)
Week 1104–640.0%-2.36+0.53 pts (6 of 10 positive)
Week 22711–1640.7%-6.00-0.32 pts (8 of 27 positive)
Week 32212–1054.5%+0.91-0.02 pts (8 of 22 positive)
Week 42713–13–150.0%-1.18+0.09 pts (9 of 27 positive)
Week 52314–960.9%+3.73-0.30 pts (3 of 23 positive)
Week 63421–1361.8%+6.09-0.26 pts (10 of 34 positive)
Week 74217–24–141.5%-8.55-0.06 pts (13 of 42 positive)
Week 83819–1950.0%-1.73+0.30 pts (19 of 38 positive)
Showing 223 of 223 picks
Details
Louisiana -10
vs Southern Miss · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401869967; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–35 final
loss
Missed by 14
San José State +6.5
vs Nevada · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401864528; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–28 final
loss
Missed by 8.5
Boise State -14.5
vs Washington State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401860907; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–10 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Utah State +13.75
vs Texas State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401860906; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–20 final
win
Covered by 10.75
Colorado State +1.25
vs San Diego State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401860905; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
56–49 final
win
Covered by 8.25
Wisconsin +2.75
vs USC · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858500; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–7 final
win
Covered by 19.75
North Carolina -8.75
vs Syracuse · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858275; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
30–31 final
loss
Missed by 9.75
Arizona -11
vs Iowa State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856838; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
39–3 final
win
Covered by 25
Colorado +13.5
vs Oklahoma State · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856836; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–57 final
loss
Missed by 19.5
Ole Miss +3
vs Texas · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856732; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–34 final
loss
Missed by 4
Kentucky -10.5
vs Vanderbilt · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856729; settled 2026-10-25T13:47:54.671690+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
34–17 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Troy -11.5
vs UL Monroe · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401871094; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–21 final
loss
Missed by 18.5
Central Michigan +3.5
vs Miami (OH) · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401866476; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–28 final
win
Covered by 2.5
Toledo -2.75
vs Western Michigan · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401866450; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
45–38 final
win
Covered by 4.25
Ohio -10
vs Eastern Michigan · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401866449; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–20 final
loss
Missed by 6
Buffalo -3
vs Bowling Green · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401866448; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–24 final
win
Covered by 4
Northern Illinois +3.75
vs Hawai'i · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401864526; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–56 final
loss
Missed by 31.25
Navy +3.25
vs North Texas · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401862810; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
39–49 final
loss
Missed by 6.75
UCLA -15.25
vs Michigan State · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858499; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
28–10 final
win
Covered by 2.75
Northwestern -15.5
vs Rutgers · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858498; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
42–14 final
win
Covered by 12.5
Boston College +6
vs Georgia Tech · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858273; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
49–27 final
win
Covered by 28
TCU -10.5
vs West Virginia · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856841; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–24 final
loss
Missed by 14.5
Cincinnati +11.5
vs Texas Tech · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856840; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
37–24 final
win
Covered by 24.5
Kansas State -1.25
vs Arizona State · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856839; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–28 final
loss
Missed by 12.25
UCF +7.5
vs BYU · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856835; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
39–31 final
win
Covered by 15.5
Kansas +1.25
vs Baylor · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856834; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
25–24 final
win
Covered by 2.25
Tennessee +2.5
vs South Carolina · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856731; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–27 final
loss
Missed by 0.5
Mississippi State +2.25
vs Oklahoma · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856730; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
15–23 final
loss
Missed by 5.75
LSU -7
vs Auburn · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856728; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–17 final
win
Covered by 14
Alabama -13.5
vs Texas A&M · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401856727; settled 2026-10-25T02:35:33.061285+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–20 final
loss
Missed by 2.5
Air Force -5.25
vs Wyoming · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401864525; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–28 final
loss
Missed by 19.25
Tulsa -1.75
vs Army · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401862808; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–38 final
loss
Missed by 4.75
Memphis -10.5
vs East Carolina · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401862807; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–34 final
loss
Missed by 3.5
Massachusetts +14.25
vs UConn · Week 8
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401861965; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
16–35 final
loss
Missed by 4.75
Stanford +6.5
vs NC State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858272; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–28 final
win
Covered by 9.5
Duke +1.75
vs Virginia · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401858271; settled 2026-10-24T11:12:20.352745+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
19–16 final
win
Covered by 4.75
Delaware -3
vs Missouri State · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401871069; settled 2026-10-21T11:11:26.676321+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
61–38 final
win
Covered by 20
Florida International -10
vs Middle Tennessee · Week 8
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 8, game 401871055; settled 2026-10-21T11:11:26.676321+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
23–26 final
loss
Missed by 13
UL Monroe +15.5
vs Louisiana Tech · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401871091; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
0–24 final
loss
Missed by 8.5
Louisiana -3
vs Troy · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401869966; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
33–6 final
win
Covered by 24
Georgia State +9.5
vs James Madison · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401869957; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
22–49 final
loss
Missed by 17.5
Coastal Carolina +1.5
vs App State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401869844; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
32–35 final
loss
Missed by 1.5
Miami (OH) -9.75
vs Akron · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401866478; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
34–14 final
win
Covered by 10.25
Sacramento State +15.5
vs Ohio · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401866445; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
7–48 final
loss
Missed by 25.5
Central Michigan +7
vs Western Michigan · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401866443; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–21 final
push
Push · exactly on the line
Massachusetts +7.25
vs Buffalo · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401866442; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
18–25 final
win
Covered by 0.25
Bowling Green -6.5
vs Ball State · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401866441; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–32 final
loss
Missed by 7.5
Air Force -0.25
vs UNLV · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401864524; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–31 final
win
Covered by 9.75
San José State -7
vs UTEP · Week 7
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401864523; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–11 final
win
Covered by 6
New Mexico -14.5
vs Hawai'i · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401864521; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–10 final
loss
Missed by 3.5
South Florida -20.5
vs Kent State · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401862806; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
29–2 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Memphis -7
vs Tulane · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401862801; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–31 final
loss
Missed by 21
Colorado State +14
vs Texas State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401860923; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–66 final
loss
Missed by 25
Fresno State -7.25
vs San Diego State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401860904; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
23–26 final
loss
Missed by 10.25
Oregon State -18.5
vs Washington State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401860903; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
48–30 final
loss
Missed by 0.5
UCLA -2.5
vs Wisconsin · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858494; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–7 final
win
Covered by 7.5
Purdue -3.5
vs Washington · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858493; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
26–38 final
loss
Missed by 15.5
Nebraska +7
vs Oregon · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858492; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–17 final
win
Covered by 4
Northwestern -7
vs Michigan State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858491; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–21 final
loss
Missed by 4
Penn State +6.5
vs Michigan · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858490; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
18–21 final
win
Covered by 3.5
Maryland -5.75
vs Rutgers · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858489; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
30–37 final
loss
Missed by 12.75
Indiana +3
vs Ohio State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858488; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
15–19 final
loss
Missed by 1
Wake Forest -10
vs California · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858269; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–7 final
win
Covered by 24
Virginia +9.75
vs SMU · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858268; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–23 final
loss
Missed by 0.25
Boston College +6.5
vs Pittsburgh · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858267; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–21 final
win
Covered by 12.5
Syracuse +14.75
vs Louisville · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858265; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
26–34 final
win
Covered by 6.75
Virginia Tech -8.5
vs Georgia Tech · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858264; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
34–24 final
win
Covered by 1.5
Miami -20.5
vs Florida State · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401858263; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
43–35 final
loss
Missed by 12.5
Houston -4.5
vs Oklahoma State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856831; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–32 final
loss
Missed by 1.5
Kansas +3.5
vs Kansas State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856830; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–35 final
loss
Missed by 7.5
Cincinnati +1.5
vs West Virginia · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856829; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
42–45 final
loss
Missed by 1.5
Texas Tech -15.75
vs Arizona State · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856828; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
53–25 final
win
Covered by 12.25
Florida +11.25
vs Texas · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856724; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–24 final
win
Covered by 14.25
Alabama -7.75
vs Tennessee · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856723; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–26 final
loss
Missed by 23.75
Kentucky +6.5
vs Oklahoma · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856722; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–13 final
win
Covered by 14.5
Missouri +5.25
vs Ole Miss · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856721; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
3–31 final
loss
Missed by 22.75
Mississippi State +17.5
vs LSU · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401856720; settled 2026-10-18T18:47:45.212082+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
0–31 final
loss
Missed by 13.5
Sam Houston +1.5
vs Western Kentucky · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401871068; settled 2026-10-16T01:48:29.984112+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
3–16 final
loss
Missed by 11.5
Middle Tennessee +1.25
vs Delaware · Week 7
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401871067; settled 2026-10-16T01:48:29.984112+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
33–30 final
win
Covered by 4.25
Kennesaw State -3
vs Missouri State · Week 7
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 7, game 401871054; settled 2026-10-16T01:48:29.984112+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–24 final
loss
Missed by 6
Florida International -6.5
vs New Mexico State · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401871066; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
22–3 final
win
Covered by 12.5
Liberty -13.5
vs Sam Houston · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401870766; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–3 final
win
Covered by 18.5
Louisiana +3
vs Louisiana Tech · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401869965; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–32 final
win
Covered by 2
Coastal Carolina +4.25
vs Marshall · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401869943; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–21 final
win
Covered by 10.25
Massachusetts +4.75
vs Miami (OH) · Week 6
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401866440; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
19–20 final
win
Covered by 3.75
Western Michigan -14
vs Kent State · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401866439; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–7 final
win
Covered by 17
Eastern Michigan -5.5
vs Akron · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401866435; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
25–23 final
loss
Missed by 3.5
San José State -4.5
vs Wyoming · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401864519; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–16 final
loss
Missed by 7.5
North Dakota State -2.5
vs UNLV · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401864518; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
7–13 final
loss
Missed by 8.5
Nevada -9.75
vs UTEP · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401864517; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
30–13 final
win
Covered by 7.25
Air Force -7
vs Northern Illinois · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401864516; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
28–7 final
win
Covered by 14
Charlotte +28.5
vs North Texas · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401862796; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–50 final
loss
Missed by 11.5
Temple -3.5
vs UConn · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401861964; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–34 final
loss
Missed by 17.5
Utah State -5.5
vs Washington State · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401860922; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–16 final
loss
Missed by 4.5
Oregon State -16.25
vs San Diego State · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401860902; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
66–14 final
win
Covered by 35.75
Purdue +2.75
vs Minnesota · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858486; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–13 final
win
Covered by 30.75
Penn State -1.75
vs USC · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858485; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
23–31 final
loss
Missed by 9.75
UCLA +10.5
vs Oregon · Week 6
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858484; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–15 final
win
Covered by 12.5
Nebraska +8
vs Indiana · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858481; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–20 final
win
Covered by 5
Michigan State +2.5
vs Illinois · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858480; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
37–38 final
win
Covered by 1.5
Wake Forest -3.25
vs NC State · Week 6
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858260; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–14 final
win
Covered by 20.75
Syracuse +11.5
vs Virginia · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858258; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
25–28 final
win
Covered by 8.5
Pittsburgh -3.75
vs North Carolina · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858256; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–21 final
loss
Missed by 7.75
Duke -6.5
vs Georgia Tech · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401858255; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
25–28 final
loss
Missed by 9.5
Kansas +15.75
vs Utah · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856827; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–41 final
loss
Missed by 1.25
BYU -10.5
vs Iowa State · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856826; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–10 final
win
Covered by 3.5
Houston +2.5
vs Kansas State · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856825; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–16 final
win
Covered by 21.5
UCF +10.25
vs Oklahoma State · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856824; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
28–42 final
loss
Missed by 3.75
Arizona -3.5
vs West Virginia · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856823; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
52–31 final
win
Covered by 17.5
Hawai'i +21
vs Arizona State · Week 6
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856808; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
12–30 final
win
Covered by 3
Vanderbilt +9.25
vs Ole Miss · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856718; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–52 final
loss
Missed by 25.75
Oklahoma +7.5
vs Texas · Week 6
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856717; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–24 final
win
Covered by 10.5
Missouri -3.5
vs Texas A&M · Week 6
⭐ C1 · 61% C1 in-sample cover rate (106 games) · rule chosen on these gamesIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856716; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–6 final
win
Covered by 17.5
Alabama -2.5
vs Georgia · Week 6
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierIn-season EPA model
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
EPA net difference; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 6, game 401856712; settled 2026-10-12T02:59:24.727937+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–20 final
loss
Missed by 5.5
Liberty -6.75
vs Delaware · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401871050; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
30–14 final
win
Covered by 9.25
James Madison -18.25
vs Marshall · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401869962; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
45–17 final
win
Covered by 9.75
Old Dominion +2.5
vs Georgia State · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401869956; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–42 final
loss
Missed by 29.5
Army -1.25
vs Louisiana Tech · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401869842; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
29–31 final
loss
Missed by 3.25
Miami (OH) -12.25
vs Bowling Green · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401866477; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–24 final
loss
Missed by 16.25
Ohio -3.5
vs Kent State · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401866434; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–10 final
loss
Missed by 0.5
Massachusetts -5.75
vs Eastern Michigan · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401866433; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–38 final
loss
Missed by 29.75
Buffalo +12.75
vs Western Michigan · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401866432; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–20 final
win
Covered by 9.75
North Dakota State -16.75
vs Wyoming · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401864515; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
28–0 final
win
Covered by 11.25
New Mexico -23.25
vs UTEP · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401864514; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
61–7 final
win
Covered by 30.75
South Florida -5.75
vs Temple · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401862792; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–17 final
loss
Missed by 9.75
Memphis -20.5
vs Charlotte · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401862787; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
59–8 final
win
Covered by 30.5
Tulsa +1.25
vs North Texas · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401862786; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
44–45 final
win
Covered by 0.25
Fresno State +1.75
vs Washington State · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401860921; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
26–6 final
win
Covered by 21.75
San Diego State +9.5
vs Texas State · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401860900; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–29 final
win
Covered by 11.5
Penn State -2.75
vs Northwestern · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401858476; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–34 final
loss
Missed by 23.75
Illinois -10.25
vs Purdue · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401858472; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–24 final
loss
Missed by 17.25
Virginia -1.25
vs Florida State · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401858253; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
7–38 final
loss
Missed by 32.25
UConn +6.5
vs Syracuse · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401858252; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–42 final
win
Covered by 5.5
Texas Tech -13.5
vs Colorado · Week 5
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401856821; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
29–7 final
win
Covered by 8.5
UCF +10.5
vs Houston · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401856819; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–27 final
win
Covered by 0.5
Baylor +3.5
vs Arizona State · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401856817; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
55–19 final
win
Covered by 39.5
Missouri +5.5
vs Florida · Week 5
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 5, game 401856708; settled 2026-10-04T15:32:17.567874+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
45–17 final
win
Covered by 33.5
Jacksonville State -7
vs Middle Tennessee · Week 4
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401871048; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
23–13 final
win
Covered by 3
James Madison -6
vs Old Dominion · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401869961; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
46–20 final
win
Covered by 20
Sacramento State +4.5
vs Massachusetts · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401866429; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–35 final
loss
Missed by 24.5
New Mexico -11.25
vs New Mexico State · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401864579; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
42–18 final
win
Covered by 12.75
Northern Illinois +10.25
vs Georgia State · Week 4
46% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401864511; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–35 final
loss
Missed by 10.75
South Florida -17.75
vs Bowling Green · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401862785; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–6 final
loss
Missed by 9.75
Florida Atlantic -11.5
vs UL Monroe · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401862782; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
45–17 final
win
Covered by 16.5
Louisiana -10
vs Charlotte · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401862780; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
34–7 final
win
Covered by 17
Navy -6.5
vs UAB · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401862778; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–24 final
loss
Missed by 10.5
Colorado State +14
vs UTSA · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401860896; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
45–59 final
push
Push · exactly on the line
Oregon State -11
vs UTEP · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401860895; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
33–7 final
win
Covered by 15
Troy +3
vs Utah State · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401860894; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–21 final
loss
Missed by 8
San Diego State +2.75
vs Toledo · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401860893; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
16–41 final
loss
Missed by 22.25
Fresno State -13.25
vs Rice · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401860891; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–24 final
win
Covered by 0.75
USC +3.5
vs Oregon · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858469; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–41 final
loss
Missed by 10.5
Penn State -10
vs Wisconsin · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858466; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–24 final
loss
Missed by 14
Illinois +26.5
vs Ohio State · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858465; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
19–42 final
win
Covered by 3.5
Nebraska -5.75
vs Michigan State · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858464; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–13 final
win
Covered by 12.25
Iowa +5.5
vs Michigan · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858463; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–19 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Georgia Tech -3.5
vs Stanford · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401858240; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–34 final
loss
Missed by 10.5
Oklahoma State +1.75
vs West Virginia · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856881; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–24 final
win
Covered by 18.75
Tennessee +5.25
vs Texas · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856704; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–20 final
win
Covered by 2.25
Missouri +6
vs Mississippi State · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856703; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–31 final
loss
Missed by 1
Texas A&M +8
vs LSU · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856702; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–35 final
loss
Missed by 21
Vanderbilt +9.5
vs Auburn · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856698; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
15–21 final
win
Covered by 3.5
Tulsa +7
vs Arkansas · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856697; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–34 final
loss
Missed by 21
South Carolina +12.5
vs Alabama · Week 4
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 4, game 401856696; settled 2026-09-28T01:06:58.332666+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
18–49 final
loss
Missed by 18.5
Louisiana Tech +19.75
vs Baylor · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401867804; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
19–36 final
win
Covered by 2.75
App State -17.25
vs Charlotte · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401864574; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
26–21 final
loss
Missed by 12.25
Sacramento State +27
vs North Dakota State · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401864507; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–31 final
win
Covered by 6
Nevada -3.5
vs Middle Tennessee · Week 3
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401864443; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–27 final
loss
Missed by 10.5
Louisiana -7.5
vs UAB · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401862776; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–14 final
loss
Missed by 0.5
UConn -3
vs Southern Miss · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401861963; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
48–20 final
win
Covered by 25
James Madison +1.5
vs San Diego State · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401860887; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
26–13 final
win
Covered by 14.5
Eastern Michigan +23.5
vs Wisconsin · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401858460; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–54 final
loss
Missed by 20.5
Buffalo +40.75
vs Penn State · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401858456; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–55 final
loss
Missed by 1.25
Western Kentucky +44.5
vs Indiana · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401858449; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
0–38 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Duke -10
vs Stanford · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401858231; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–7 final
win
Covered by 18
Utah State +27.5
vs Utah · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856801; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
0–33 final
loss
Missed by 5.5
UCF -17.5
vs Georgia State · Week 3
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856800; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
44–30 final
loss
Missed by 3.5
Northwestern -3.5
vs Colorado · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856796; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–7 final
win
Covered by 30.5
BYU -17.25
vs Colorado State · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856795; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–23 final
win
Covered by 0.75
Northern Illinois +33.75
vs Arizona · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856793; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–42 final
win
Covered by 8.75
Texas A&M -17
vs Kentucky · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856694; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–31 final
loss
Missed by 27
UTSA +30.25
vs Texas · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856693; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–30 final
win
Covered by 6.25
South Carolina -4
vs Mississippi State · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856691; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
34–41 final
loss
Missed by 11
New Mexico +21.75
vs Oklahoma · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856690; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–14 final
win
Covered by 13.75
LSU -3
vs Ole Miss · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856688; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–32 final
loss
Missed by 11
Florida State +19.75
vs Alabama · Week 3
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 3, game 401856685; settled 2026-09-20T14:18:32.247296+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
36–50 final
win
Covered by 5.75
Minnesota +0.25
vs Mississippi State · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856677; settled 2026-09-20T18:16:01.963175+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
13–38 final
loss
Missed by 24.75
Hawai'i -7.5
vs New Mexico State · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401864578; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
29–19 final
win
Covered by 2.5
Fresno State -18
vs Sacramento State · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401860883; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
49–3 final
win
Covered by 28
Arkansas +12.5
vs Utah · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856670; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–43 final
loss
Missed by 20.5
Air Force +2.5
vs North Dakota State · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401864502; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
32–38 final
loss
Missed by 3.5
Auburn -33.5
vs Southern Miss · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856671; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
43–8 final
win
Covered by 1.5
Ole Miss -47.5
vs Charlotte · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856676; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–9 final
loss
Missed by 15.5
Ohio State +1.75
vs Texas · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856682; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
23–24 final
win
Covered by 0.75
Clemson -20.5
vs Georgia Southern · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401858219; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
22–7 final
loss
Missed by 5.5
Louisiana Tech +35.25
vs LSU · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401867796; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–45 final
win
Covered by 4.25
San Diego State +12.5
vs UCLA · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401858443; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–28 final
loss
Missed by 5.5
Bowling Green +29.75
vs Nebraska · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401858441; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
7–56 final
loss
Missed by 19.25
Georgia Tech +12.75
vs Tennessee · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856681; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–45 final
loss
Missed by 8.25
Marshall -13.5
vs Middle Tennessee · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401871045; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
28–26 final
loss
Missed by 11.5
Kennesaw State -9.5
vs Georgia State · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401869955; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–31 final
loss
Missed by 23.5
Buffalo +10.25
vs Florida International · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401866414; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–33 final
loss
Missed by 2.75
Jacksonville State +2.5
vs Ohio · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401866418; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
27–29 final
win
Covered by 0.5
Vanderbilt -21
vs Delaware · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856684; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
35–26 final
loss
Missed by 12
UNLV -3.25
vs North Texas · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401862705; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
6–44 final
loss
Missed by 41.25
California +3.5
vs Syracuse · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401858216; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–18 final
win
Covered by 6.5
UTSA +1.5
vs Texas State · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401860884; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
31–26 final
win
Covered by 6.5
Western Kentucky +40.75
vs Georgia · Week 2
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856673; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
20–70 final
loss
Missed by 9.25
Oklahoma State +23.25
vs Oregon · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856782; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
39–31 final
win
Covered by 31.25
Michigan +5.5
vs Oklahoma · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856679; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–10 final
win
Covered by 12.5
East Carolina -7.25
vs App State · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401864571; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–27 final
loss
Missed by 10.25
Missouri -5.5
vs Kansas · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401856678; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–21 final
win
Covered by 11.5
Rutgers +3.25
vs Boston College · Week 2
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 2, game 401858214; settled 2026-09-14T20:22:03.110051+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–28 final
loss
Missed by 3.75
Michigan State -11
vs Toledo · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858429; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
30–20 final
loss
Missed by 1
Ohio State -50
vs Ball State · Week 1
44% historical accuracy7-14 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858432; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
56–3 final
win
Covered by 3
Wake Forest -22.5
vs Akron · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858204; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
38–16 final
loss
Missed by 0.5
Miami (OH) +16.5
vs Pittsburgh · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858207; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
14–59 final
loss
Missed by 28.5
Troy -16
vs Sam Houston · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401870763; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
24–21 final
loss
Missed by 13
Rutgers -30.5
vs Massachusetts · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858423; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
21–37 final
loss
Missed by 46.5
Duke -9.25
vs Tulane · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858209; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
17–3 final
win
Covered by 4.75
East Carolina +27
vs Alabama · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401856634; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
10–48 final
loss
Missed by 11
Iowa -30
vs Northern Illinois · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858426; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
40–0 final
win
Covered by 10
Notre Dame -20.5
vs Wisconsin · Week 1
51% historical accuracy3-7 pt edge tierPreseason SP+ ratings
Output:
ATS result at the saved pick line; cover margin (points)
Model:
SP+ rating-difference fallback
Training:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Features:
SP+ ratings; source snapshot unavailable
Evaluation:
2026 week 1, game 401858438; settled 2026-09-08T17:09:16.459276+00:00. Exact forecast identity unavailable; historical EPA buckets are a separate reference, not ensemble results.
41–13 final
win
Covered by 7.5

Experiment lanes

Graded after the fact at CFBD closing numbers. These are research records of every game that met a lane's rule, not picks made before kickoff and not bets placed. Weeks graded: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Wind unders 0–1 (0.0%) · -1.00 units

Outdoor game, wind 10 to 15 mph, total 58 or higher: take the under.

Pre-registered 2026-08-15. Backtest 2017-2023 56.1% (n=453), holdout 2024-2025 55.7% (n=79). Half unit. 2027: 30+ games; under 52.4% ends it, 54% or better keeps it.

  • Week 5 · Oregon State at Colorado State · Under 61.5 · loss (-1.00)
Humid unders (collection only) 3–2 (60.0%) · +0.73 units

Outdoor game, humidity 80% or higher, total 58 or higher: take the under.

Collection cohort X4: 55.8% pooled (n=353); the holdout is driven by 2025 alone, so this is unproven. Not bet. 2027: 30+ games; under 52.4% ends it, 54% or better keeps it.

  • Week 1 · Florida Atlantic at Florida · Under 59.5 · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 2 · Louisiana at USC · Under 58.5 · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 3 · Kennesaw State at Tennessee · Under 60.75 · win (+0.91)
  • Week 3 · Florida International at Florida Atlantic · Under 62.25 · win (+0.91)
  • Week 6 · South Carolina at Florida · Under 59.5 · win (+0.91)
Middles 0 of 1 middled (0.0%; break-even 4.8%)

Two different books close 3+ points apart: take both sides; it pays when the final margin lands between the numbers.

Backtest: 6.27% of such games middled (n=287) against a 4.76% break-even. Depends on both numbers being available. Collection lane; half unit max.

  • Week 5 · Marshall at James Madison · James Madison -14.5 (DraftKings) and Marshall +18 (Bovada) · win/loss (-0.09)
Holdover fade 3–5 (37.5%) · -2.27 units

Weeks 1-2: bet against a team that finished last season in the Elo top 10 when it plays a non-power-five opponent.

Backtest 58.7% (n=75, 6 of 7 seasons), holdout 63.6% (n=22). Thin sample. Collection only, not bet. 2027: 30+ games; under 52.4% ends it, 54% or better keeps it.

  • Week 1 · East Carolina at Alabama · East Carolina +28.25 (against Alabama) · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 1 · North Texas at Indiana · North Texas +40 (against Indiana) · win (+0.91)
  • Week 1 · Ball State at Ohio State · Ball State +50.75 (against Ohio State) · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 1 · Marshall at Penn State · Marshall +23.25 (against Penn State) · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 2 · Western Kentucky at Georgia · Western Kentucky +40.25 (against Georgia) · loss (-1.00)
  • Week 2 · Charlotte at Ole Miss · Charlotte +44.5 (against Ole Miss) · win (+0.91)
  • Week 2 · Penn State at Temple · Temple +24.25 (against Penn State) · win (+0.91)
  • Week 2 · Rice at Notre Dame · Rice +44.75 (against Notre Dame) · loss (-1.00)