Sacramento State

2026 season

Mid-American

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Sacramento State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 138 across 8 systems; best 137, worst 138, so they disagree by 1 places.

Lab EPA: #138; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #137; no change2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #138; down 12026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #137; down 32026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #138; no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #138; down 1 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #138; no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #138; down 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #137 of 138
Schedule strength: #136 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #118 of 138
Game control: #136 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #138 of 138
Offense: #138 of 138
Defense: #137 of 138
Special teams: #29 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Sacramento State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

1-7 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

-0.271 net EPA/play

#138

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

-20.33 points

#137 · Rank unchanged since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -18.58 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -7.65, schedule #123 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -5.48. That is worth -26.23 on its own; with no prior-season rating, the preseason prior is set to average (0.00) and still carries 22% of the weight, giving -20.33.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Sacramento State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · Eastern Michigan away · 2026-08-29 · ID 401866408	-11.00 → -11.00	+2.50	0.7637	8.59%	-9.30	-0.730	-0.799	-1.529
Week 1 · Mississippi Valley State home · 2026-09-06 · ID 401866411	+52.00 → +35.00	-2.50	0.7637	8.59%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	2.792	-2.147	0.644
Week 2 · Fresno State away · 2026-09-13 · ID 401860883	-46.00 → -35.00	+2.50	0.7937	8.93%	+0.87	-2.901	0.078	-2.824
Week 3 · North Dakota State home · 2026-09-20 · ID 401864507	-21.00 → -21.00	-2.50	0.8249	9.28%	+5.92	-2.180	0.549	-1.631
Week 4 · Massachusetts home · 2026-09-27 · ID 401866429	-29.00 → -29.00	-2.50	0.8572	9.64%	-8.38	-3.037	-0.808	-3.845
Week 6 · Bowling Green away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401866436	-28.00 → -28.00	+2.50	0.9259	10.41%	-11.98	-2.655	-1.248	-3.903
Week 7 · Ohio home · 2026-10-18 · ID 401866445	-41.00 → -35.00	-2.50	0.9622	10.82%	-1.24	-4.058	-0.135	-4.193
Week 8 · Ball State away · 2026-10-24 · ID 401866447	-17.00 → -17.00	+2.50	1.0000	11.25%	-12.59	-1.631	-1.416	-3.047

Game terms -20.33 points; prior term 0.00 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -20.33 points. No prior-season estimate is available; the configured starting value is 0.00 with 22.49% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±10.1 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior unavailable.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

-29.1 SP+ points

#138 · Down 1 place

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

-29.37 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#138 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -19.41 on 330 plays; defense 9.96 on 360 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Sacramento State 1 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 1-7 · conf 0-5 · home 1-3 · away 0-4 · expected wins 1.2
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 2-6 ATS (-10.3 avg) · 2025: 6-6 ATS (+0.6 avg)
Head coach: Alonzo Carter · hired 2025-12-15 · 0-0 over 1 captured season
Recruiting classes: 2024 #131 (72 pts) · 2025 #127 (89 pts) · 2026 #125 (161 pts)
Returning: —

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	5	2.80	0.8316	4.16
Defensive Line	9	2.89	0.8243	7.42
Linebacker	7	2.86	0.8264	5.79
Offensive Line	8	2.88	0.8140	6.51
Quarterback	4	3.00	0.8328	3.33
Receiver	12	2.58	0.8041	9.65
Running Back	2	3.00	0.8450	1.69
Special Teams	11	2.91	0.8367	9.20

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Jackson Sharman · QB CFBD athlete 5158748. Sacramento State (2026–2026); Idaho State (2023–2025)	Passing WEPA	0.072	202	53.6%	Pass 94.1% · Rush 9.5% 1st 42.3% · 2nd 56.4% · 3rd 73.4% Standard downs 46.1% · Passing downs 72.5%	2023: stars unavailable
Isaiah Ene · RB CFBD athlete 5161820. Sacramento State (2026–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.050	50	13.1%	Pass 3.8% · Rush 25.7% 1st 15.4% · 2nd 14.1% · 3rd 6.5% Standard downs 15.2% · Passing downs 8.3%	Not linked
Daniel Swinney · RB CFBD athlete 5310132. Sacramento State (2026–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.100	34	10.0%	Pass 1.7% · Rush 20.0% 1st 13.4% · 2nd 6.7% · 3rd 6.4% Standard downs 12.7% · Passing downs 3.1%	2026: 3★ · 0.8622
Grant Meadors · PK CFBD athlete 5158467. Sacramento State (2025–2026); Oregon (2023–2024)	Kicker PAAR	-4.130	12	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	2023: 3★ · 0.8111
Brian Salazar · QB CFBD athlete 5401458. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.0%	Pass 12.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 6.0% · 2nd 5.1% · 3rd 5.4% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 11.1%	Not linked
Carson Conklin · QB CFBD athlete 4920192. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	75.0%	Pass 100.0% · Rush 6.3% 1st 63.0% · 2nd 90.5% · 3rd 78.6% Standard downs 60.5% · Passing downs 96.2%	Not linked
Cedric Anton · TE CFBD athlete 5080786. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.1%	Pass 3.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.1% · 2nd 3.1% · 3rd 2.6% Standard downs 2.3% · Passing downs 1.6%	Not linked
Cincere Rhaney · RB CFBD athlete 5084459. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	8.7%	Pass 1.3% · Rush 17.6% 1st 10.0% · 2nd 7.4% · 3rd 7.4% Standard downs 10.6% · Passing downs 3.8%	Not linked
Davion Godley · RB CFBD athlete 5229947. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.1%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 12.5% 1st 3.7% · 2nd 5.3% · 3rd 9.1% Standard downs 8.3% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Elias Brown · RB CFBD athlete 5301029. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.8%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 6.6% 1st 4.1% · 2nd 2.1% · 3rd 1.8% Standard downs 4.0% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Elijah Huddle · TE CFBD athlete 5301047. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.6%	Pass 2.1% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Ellijah Washington · WR CFBD athlete 5166880. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.4%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.4% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.2% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 6.7%	Not linked
Jace Wilson · WR CFBD athlete 4833629. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.4%	Pass 9.0% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.7% · 2nd 6.3% · 3rd 6.0% Standard downs 3.4% · Passing downs 6.6%	Not linked
Jamar Curtis · RB CFBD athlete 5083848. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	11.5%	Pass 5.8% · Rush 19.4% 1st 14.8% · 2nd 13.1% · 3rd 3.8% Standard downs 12.2% · Passing downs 10.1%	Not linked
Jaylen Patterson · QB CFBD athlete 5148654. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.1%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 6.5% 1st 4.6% · 2nd 3.3% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 4.2% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Jordan Williams · TE CFBD athlete 4912040. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.6%	Pass 11.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 7.3% · 2nd 5.2% · 3rd 7.0% Standard downs 6.5% · Passing downs 6.9%	Not linked
Kenyon Shabazz · WR CFBD athlete 5401457. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.3%	Pass 5.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.9% · 2nd 5.2% · 3rd 5.8% Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 6.1%	Not linked
Khai Taylor · WR CFBD athlete 5077407. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.7%	Pass 4.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 10.0% Standard downs 0.9% · Passing downs 7.9%	Not linked
Kyle Koontz · TE CFBD athlete 5225846. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.7%	Pass 5.1% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.8% · 2nd 2.8% · 3rd 2.9% Standard downs 1.7% · Passing downs 5.4%	Not linked
Matthew Coleman · WR CFBD athlete 5082587. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	13.0%	Pass 23.4% · Rush 0.4% 1st 10.1% · 2nd 8.8% · 3rd 25.9% Standard downs 10.1% · Passing downs 19.7%	Not linked
Onterrio Smith Jr. · WR CFBD athlete 5152796. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	12.2%	Pass 22.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 10.5% · 2nd 15.3% · 3rd 10.2% Standard downs 10.9% · Passing downs 15.3%	Not linked
Raiden Brown · WR CFBD athlete 5158759. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	7.2%	Pass 12.9% · Rush 0.4% 1st 4.4% · 2nd 11.2% · 3rd 6.5% Standard downs 6.5% · Passing downs 8.9%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 26 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Amari Wallace · CB	Miami	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Boogsie Silvera · S	South Florida	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8000	Immediate
Carson Conklin · QB	Fresno State	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Cedric Anton · TE	Tiffin University	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Cincere Rhaney · RB	San Diego State	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Darson Jeanty · S	Lafayette	2026-01-23	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Davion Godley · RB	Weber State	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Dionte Thornton · S	Portland State	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Donovan Turner · CB	Illinois	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Ellijah Washington · WR	Oregon State	2026-01-23	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Garrison Blank · OT	UCLA	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Isiah Chala Jr. · EDGE	Fresno State	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Ivan Moore Jr. · EDGE	Northern Illinois	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Jamel Howard Jr. · DL	Wisconsin	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Jaylen Patterson · QB	New Mexico State	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Kyle Koontz · TE	Houston Christian	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8100	Immediate
Malikai Nichols · CB	Not reported	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Matthew Coleman · WR	San José State	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Nick Dimitris · DL	Florida A&M	2026-01-23	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Nikko Klemm · S	Arizona State	2026-01-12	3★ / —	Immediate
Noah King · CB	Colorado	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Qualyn McQueen · CB	Not reported	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Raiden Brown · WR	Idaho State	2026-04-26	3★ / —	Immediate
Tim Thomas · LB	Fresno State	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Vae Soifua · IOL	Weber State	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Will Weber · DL	UTEP	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8000	Immediate

Outgoing · 22 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Anta'Veon McKenzie · S	UAB	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Bear Tenney · TE	New Mexico	2026-02-05	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Cardell Williams · QB	Maryland	2026-05-30	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Damian Henderson II · RB	Colorado	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
DeSean Watts · DL	Washington	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Derek Houston · LB	Not reported	2025-12-29	3★ / —	Immediate
Dontae Robinson · TE	Central Michigan	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8000	Immediate
Dylan Hampsten · EDGE	Fresno State	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Ernest Campbell · WR	Colorado	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Gavin Nelson · TE	Cal Poly	2026-02-04	— / —	Immediate
JaQuail Smith · RB	Colorado	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jaden Rashada · QB	Mississippi State	2026-01-22	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jamar Curtis · RB	Not reported	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8000	Withdrawn
James Gillespie · DL	Nevada	2026-01-16	— / —	Immediate
Jason Oliver · CB	San Diego State	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Jayland McGlothen · DL	San José State	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Jose Soto · IOL	Colorado	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Koa Akui · S	Rice	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Lamont Johnson-Burrell · CB	Not reported	2025-12-30	3★ / —	Immediate
Micah Mosley · EDGE	Fresno State	2026-01-04	3★ / —	Immediate
Nash Burkart · ATH	Not reported	2026-01-09	3★ / —	Immediate
Ricky Lee III · CB	Middle Tennessee	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Sacramento State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Alonzo Carter · career 0–0 across 1 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 1 appointments

2026–present · Alonzo Carter · active at capture
0–0 · 0 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-15. Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Alonzo Carter · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	-26.1	-28.9	125	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:23:32 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	136 / 138	1.5	117 / 138	15.3
Success rate	117 / 138	15.3	67 / 138	51.8
Explosiveness	137 / 138	0.7	119 / 138	13.9
Standard-down success	98 / 138	29.2	85 / 138	38.7
Passing-down success	137 / 138	0.7	21 / 138	85.4
Pass PPA	129 / 138	6.6	125 / 138	9.5
Rush PPA	136 / 138	1.5	101 / 138	27.0
Pass explosiveness	133 / 138	3.6	107 / 138	22.6
Rush explosiveness	130 / 138	5.8	123 / 138	10.9
Line yards	132 / 138	4.4	114 / 138	17.5
Second-level yards	111 / 138	19.7	66 / 138	52.6
Open-field yards	92 / 138	33.6	94 / 138	32.1
Stuff rate	136 / 138	1.5	125 / 138	9.5
Power success	T107 / 138	21.2	36 / 138	74.5
Havoc	T123 / 138	10.6	135 / 138	2.2
Front-seven havoc	T84 / 138	37.2	T129 / 138	5.8
DB havoc	T130 / 138	5.1	T130 / 138	5.5
Points / opportunity	131 / 138	5.1	120 / 138	13.1
Average field position	T112 / 138	18.6	T84 / 138	39.1
Field-position expected points	117 / 138	15.3	T95 / 138	31.0

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Carson Conklin · QBUsage 75.0% · Avg PPA -0.140 · Total -6.724

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.140	-6.724	75.0%
Pass	-0.137	-6.462	100.0%
Rush	-0.262	-0.262	6.3%
1st down	-0.141	-2.391	63.0%
2nd down	-0.065	-1.241	90.5%
3rd down	0.060	0.662	78.6%
Standard downs	-0.100	-2.290	60.5%
Passing downs	-0.177	-4.434	96.2%

Jackson Sharman · QBUsage 53.6% · Avg PPA -0.062 · Total -15.249

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.062	-15.249	53.6%
Pass	0.021	4.763	94.1%
Rush	-0.588	-11.764	9.5%
1st down	-0.074	-6.259	42.3%
2nd down	-0.074	-6.235	56.4%
3rd down	0.115	7.916	73.4%
Standard downs	0.020	3.005	46.1%
Passing downs	-0.192	-18.254	72.5%

Isaiah Ene · RBUsage 13.1% · Avg PPA -0.047 · Total -3.229

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.047	-3.229	13.1%
Pass	0.334	3.676	3.8%
Rush	-0.119	-6.905	25.7%
1st down	0.101	3.522	15.4%
2nd down	-0.123	-2.957	14.1%
3rd down	0.588	4.114	6.5%
Standard downs	0.003	0.167	15.2%
Passing downs	-0.261	-3.395	8.3%

Matthew Coleman · WRUsage 13.0% · Avg PPA 0.388 · Total 26.352

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.388	26.352	13.0%
Pass	0.405	27.124	23.4%
Rush	-0.773	-0.773	0.4%
1st down	0.321	7.394	10.1%
2nd down	0.401	6.015	8.8%
3rd down	0.716	20.060	25.9%
Standard downs	0.530	19.622	10.1%
Passing downs	0.217	6.729	19.7%

Onterrio Smith Jr. · WRUsage 12.2% · Avg PPA 0.062 · Total 3.944

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.062	3.944	12.2%
Pass	0.062	3.944	22.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.139	3.328	10.5%
2nd down	0.283	7.345	15.3%
3rd down	-0.123	-1.354	10.2%
Standard downs	0.226	9.055	10.9%
Passing downs	-0.213	-5.111	15.3%

Jamar Curtis · RBUsage 11.5% · Avg PPA -0.108 · Total -4.751

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.108	-4.751	11.5%
Pass	-0.086	-1.037	5.8%
Rush	-0.116	-3.714	19.4%
1st down	-0.095	-2.365	14.8%
2nd down	-0.080	-1.276	13.1%
3rd down	-0.370	-1.110	3.8%
Standard downs	-0.018	-0.590	12.2%
Passing downs	-0.347	-4.161	10.1%

Daniel Swinney · RBUsage 10.0% · Avg PPA 0.051 · Total 2.366

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.051	2.366	10.0%
Pass	-0.332	-1.326	1.7%
Rush	0.088	3.692	20.0%
1st down	0.032	0.854	13.4%
2nd down	0.181	1.808	6.7%
3rd down	-0.076	-0.456	6.4%
Standard downs	0.066	2.778	12.7%
Passing downs	-0.103	-0.412	3.1%

Cincere Rhaney · RBUsage 8.7% · Avg PPA 0.152 · Total 6.077

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.152	6.077	8.7%
Pass	-0.446	-1.337	1.3%
Rush	0.200	7.414	17.6%
1st down	0.052	1.034	10.0%
2nd down	0.065	0.715	7.4%
3rd down	0.077	0.540	7.4%
Standard downs	0.193	6.749	10.6%
Passing downs	-0.134	-0.672	3.8%

Raiden Brown · WRUsage 7.2% · Avg PPA -0.067 · Total -2.560

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.067	-2.560	7.2%
Pass	-0.104	-3.862	12.9%
Rush	1.302	1.302	0.4%
1st down	0.278	2.780	4.4%
2nd down	0.197	3.736	11.2%
3rd down	-0.261	-1.828	6.5%
Standard downs	0.201	4.829	6.5%
Passing downs	-0.528	-7.388	8.9%

Jordan Williams · TEUsage 6.6% · Avg PPA -0.063 · Total -1.456

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.063	-1.456	6.6%
Pass	-0.063	-1.456	11.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.613	6.743	7.3%
2nd down	-0.371	-2.225	5.2%
3rd down	-0.413	-2.067	7.0%
Standard downs	0.007	0.114	6.5%
Passing downs	-0.224	-1.570	6.9%

Brian Salazar · QBUsage 6.0% · Avg PPA 0.113 · Total 1.248

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.113	1.248	6.0%
Pass	0.113	1.248	12.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.791	3.956	6.0%
2nd down	0.410	1.231	5.1%
3rd down	-0.073	-0.145	5.4%
Standard downs	0.791	3.956	3.8%
Passing downs	-0.451	-2.707	11.1%

Davion Godley · RBUsage 5.1% · Avg PPA -0.578 · Total -1.734

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.578	-1.734	5.1%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.578	-1.734	12.5%
1st down	-0.703	-0.703	3.7%
2nd down	-0.150	-0.150	5.3%
3rd down	-0.881	-0.881	9.1%
Standard downs	-0.578	-1.734	8.3%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Jace Wilson · WRUsage 4.4% · Avg PPA 1.166 · Total 12.823

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.166	12.823	4.4%
Pass	1.166	12.823	9.0%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	1.343	4.028	2.7%
2nd down	0.867	4.333	6.3%
3rd down	1.487	4.461	6.0%
Standard downs	0.976	5.857	3.4%
Passing downs	1.393	6.965	6.6%

Kenyon Shabazz · WRUsage 3.3% · Avg PPA 0.679 · Total 5.430

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.679	5.430	3.3%
Pass	0.679	5.430	5.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	3.095	3.095	0.9%
2nd down	0.379	1.516	5.2%
3rd down	0.273	0.819	5.8%
Standard downs	2.056	6.169	1.9%
Passing downs	-0.148	-0.739	6.1%

Jaylen Patterson · QBUsage 3.1% · Avg PPA 0.381 · Total 2.287

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.381	2.287	3.1%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.381	2.287	6.5%
1st down	-0.661	-2.643	4.6%
2nd down	2.465	4.930	3.3%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	0.381	2.287	4.2%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Elias Brown · RBUsage 2.8% · Avg PPA -0.235 · Total -1.880

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.235	-1.880	2.8%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.235	-1.880	6.6%
1st down	-0.318	-1.590	4.1%
2nd down	0.483	0.967	2.1%
3rd down	-1.257	-1.257	1.8%
Standard downs	-0.235	-1.880	4.0%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Khai Taylor · WRUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.169 · Total 0.677

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.169	0.677	2.7%
Pass	0.169	0.677	4.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-0.931	-0.931	2.0%
3rd down	0.536	1.608	10.0%
Standard downs	0.838	0.838	0.9%
Passing downs	-0.054	-0.162	7.9%

Kyle Koontz · TEUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA -0.057 · Total -0.516

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.057	-0.516	2.7%
Pass	-0.057	-0.516	5.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.021	-0.083	2.8%
2nd down	-0.063	-0.189	2.8%
3rd down	-0.122	-0.245	2.9%
Standard downs	-0.021	-0.083	1.7%
Passing downs	-0.087	-0.434	5.4%

Cedric Anton · TEUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA -0.334 · Total -1.334

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.334	-1.334	2.1%
Pass	-0.334	-1.334	3.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.162	0.162	1.1%
2nd down	-0.602	-1.204	3.1%
3rd down	-0.292	-0.292	2.6%
Standard downs	-0.230	-0.689	2.3%
Passing downs	-0.645	-0.645	1.6%

Elijah Huddle · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA 0.652 · Total 0.652

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.652	0.652	1.6%
Pass	0.652	0.652	2.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	0.652	0.652	4.8%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	0.652	0.652	2.6%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Ellijah Washington · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -1.040 · Total -1.040

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-1.040	-1.040	1.4%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-1.040	-1.040	2.4%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-1.040	-1.040	4.2%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	-1.040	-1.040	6.7%

Where Sacramento State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Sacramento State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	-0.086	1st138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.387	16th138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.048	1st138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	-0.010	7th138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	-0.132	1st138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.180	15th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.405	52nd138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.332	14th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.106	2nd138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 100% of 277 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.4 yards (40th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 4.3 per completion. Completion 56.7%, 5.8 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.01.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	56.4%	61.4%	-5.0	218 / 277
Defense allowed	67.3%	61.5%	+5.8	153 / 195

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Sacramento State.

Target mix by zone, Sacramento State offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Sacramento State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	277	100%	8.4	4.3	56.7%	0.01	-5.0 pp	218
Passing defense	195	97%	8.9	5.5	66.7%	0.39	+5.8 pp	153

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	238	3.6	45.6%	-0.03	2.80	1.00	0.90	22.1%	66.7%
Defense allowed	294	4.8	40.1%	0.16	3.20	0.90	1.20	11.9%	67.9%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	235 / 238	221	17	15	5	6	0	216 / 217 · 99.5%
Defense allowed	282 / 294	264	30	9	8	8	0	275 / 277 · 99.3%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -5.0 pp. 6 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	Eastern Michigan	47	46	54.3%	63.5%	-9.1 pp	6.7	-0.11	17	2.9	0.01
W1	Mississippi Valley State	29	0	—	—	—	10.3	0.45	42	5.0	0.19
W2	Fresno State	32	32	50.0%	58.1%	-8.2 pp	9.8	-0.42	33	3.8	0.04
W3	North Dakota State	41	41	61.0%	58.1%	+2.9 pp	9.9	0.15	25	4.1	-0.32
W4	Massachusetts	43	43	55.8%	62.2%	-6.4 pp	7.3	-0.06	34	3.0	-0.06
W6	Bowling Green	28	0	—	—	—	9.6	-0.02	35	2.2	-0.00
W7	Ohio	26	26	57.7%	66.0%	-8.3 pp	6.6	-0.06	26	5.0	-0.08
W8	Ball State	31	30	60.0%	60.8%	-0.8 pp	7.6	0.19	26	2.3	-0.21

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

41 punts · 41.8 gross yards/punt · 39.7 net yards/punt

11 inside the 20 · 0 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 41/41 punts. Known net yards: 32/41 punts.

Our punt returns

7 returns · 10.9 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

2 muffs · 3 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 7/7 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 8 · Ball State	6	45.3	39.0	4/6
Week 7 · Ohio	7	43.1	40.0	5/7
Week 6 · Bowling Green	4	41.3	41.0	2/4
Week 4 · Massachusetts	4	42.3	42.0	4/4
Week 3 · North Dakota State	5	37.8	37.8	4/5

Team style

Rating history