Record
6-2 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook recordNorth Dakota State
2026 season
Mountain West
2026 preseason report
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
What every system says
North Dakota State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 41.5 across 8 systems; best 36, worst 71, so they disagree by 35 places.
- Lab EPA
- #37
- Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- Lab SRS
- #41
- down 32026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- SP+
- #42
- down 72026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
- Elo
- #41
- no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- FPI
- #71
- no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CORE
- #42
- down 8 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CFBD SRS
- #62
- down 52026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- WEPA
- #36
- down 32026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI context
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Résumé and schedule
Results earned and schedule difficulty
- Strength of record
- #60 of 138
- Schedule strength
- #119 of 138
- Remaining schedule strength
- #130 of 138
- Game control
- #47 of 138
Unit efficiency
Performance by unit
- Overall
- #56 of 138
- Offense
- #108 of 138
- Defense
- #16 of 138
- Special teams
- #9 of 138
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
Why the ratings disagree
North Dakota State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
Descriptive EPA
0.077 net EPA/play
#37
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD playsLocal predictive SRS
5.92 points
#41 · Down 3 places since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +14.00 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -6.37, schedule #109 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -4.06. That is worth +7.63 on its own; with no prior-season rating, the preseason prior is set to average (0.00) and still carries 22% of the weight, giving +5.92.
How each game enters this SRS rating
North Dakota State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Jacksonville State home · 2026-08-29 · ID 401864577 | +26.00 → +26.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 8.56% | -2.80 | 2.011 | -0.239 | 1.772 |
| Week 1 · Fordham home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401864499 | +38.00 → +35.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 8.56% | -25.00 (fixed lower division) | 2.781 | -2.139 | 0.642 |
| Week 2 · Air Force away · 2026-09-13 · ID 401864502 | +6.00 → +6.00 | +2.50 | 0.7937 | 8.89% | -1.75 | 0.756 | -0.156 | 0.600 |
| Week 3 · Sacramento State away · 2026-09-20 · ID 401864507 | +21.00 → +21.00 | +2.50 | 0.8249 | 9.24% | -20.33 | 2.172 | -1.879 | 0.293 |
| Week 5 · Wyoming home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401864515 | +28.00 → +28.00 | -2.50 | 0.8909 | 9.98% | -8.25 | 2.545 | -0.823 | 1.722 |
| Week 6 · UNLV away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401864518 | -6.00 → -6.00 | +2.50 | 0.9259 | 10.37% | -0.87 | -0.363 | -0.090 | -0.453 |
| Week 7 · Nevada home · 2026-10-17 · ID 401864520 | +14.00 → +14.00 | -2.50 | 0.9622 | 10.78% | -4.87 | 1.240 | -0.525 | 0.715 |
| Week 8 · New Mexico away · 2026-10-25 · ID 401864527 | -5.00 → -5.00 | +2.50 | 1.0000 | 11.20% | +8.10 | -0.280 | 0.908 | 0.628 |
Game terms +5.92 points; prior term 0.00 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +5.92 points. No prior-season estimate is available; the configured starting value is 0.00 with 22.41% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±10.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior unavailable.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scoresExternal SP+
8.6 SP+ points
#42 · Down 7 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbookExternal CORE
6.79 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#42 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -3.47 on 422 plays; defense -10.26 on 381 plays.
2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks North Dakota State 4 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidenceProgram context
2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches- Record
- 6-2 · conf 3-2 · home 4-0 · away 2-2 · expected wins 5.3
- Polls (Week 9)
- unranked
- CFP latest
- not published
- CFP final
- not published
- Against the spread
- 2026: 3-3-2 ATS (+2.3 avg) · 2025: 5-5 ATS (+5.5 avg)
- Head coach
- Tim Polasek · hired 2023-12-17 · 0-0 over 1 captured season
- Recruiting classes
- 2024 #142 (52 pts) · 2025 #133 (65 pts) · 2026 #117 (167 pts)
- Returning
- —
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
Recruiting by position group
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 13 | 2.77 | 0.8201 | 10.66 |
| Defensive Line | 11 | 2.64 | 0.8133 | 8.95 |
| Linebacker | 11 | 2.55 | 0.8050 | 8.85 |
| Offensive Line | 12 | 2.83 | 0.8275 | 9.93 |
| Quarterback | 2 | 3.00 | 0.8103 | 1.62 |
| Receiver | 7 | 2.86 | 0.8351 | 5.85 |
| Running Back | 2 | 3.00 | 0.8300 | 1.66 |
| Special Teams | 8 | 2.63 | 0.8275 | 6.62 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Player efficiency and usage
2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTCPassing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nathan Hayes · QBCFBD athlete 5087156. North Dakota State (2022–2022); North Dakota State (2024–2026) | Passing WEPA | 0.342 | 186 | 45.4% | Pass 95.7% · Rush 11.9%1st 36.7% · 2nd 45.8% · 3rd 62.4% Standard downs 37.8% · Passing downs 61.0% | 2022: 2★ · 0.7800 |
Myles Mitchell · RBCFBD athlete 5297931. North Dakota State (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.112 | 83 | 20.7% | Pass 2.7% · Rush 34.2%1st 25.4% · 2nd 20.9% · 3rd 12.5% Standard downs 23.4% · Passing downs 15.2% | 2025: 2★ · 0.7900 |
DJ Scott · RBCFBD athlete 5154224. Kennesaw State (2023–2024); North Dakota State (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.005 | 72 | 20.1% | Pass 5.4% · Rush 31.5%1st 26.4% · 2nd 16.7% · 3rd 12.8% Standard downs 25.1% · Passing downs 10.0% | Not linked |
Nathan Hayes · QBCFBD athlete 5087156. North Dakota State (2022–2022); North Dakota State (2024–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.432 | 36 | 45.4% | Pass 95.7% · Rush 11.9%1st 36.7% · 2nd 45.8% · 3rd 62.4% Standard downs 37.8% · Passing downs 61.0% | 2022: 2★ · 0.7800 |
Drew Klein · PKCFBD athlete 5087165. North Dakota State (2022–2022); North Dakota State (2025–2026) | Kicker PAAR | 6.810 | 13 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Jayden Onuonga · PKCFBD athlete 5388950. North Dakota State (2026–2026) | Kicker PAAR | -1.570 | 1 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Barry Kpeenu · RBCFBD athlete 5310992. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.9% | Pass 0.8% · Rush 9.3%1st 5.6% · 2nd 8.8% · 3rd 2.9% Standard downs 6.3% · Passing downs 5.1% | Not linked |
Brady Wavrunek · RBCFBD athlete 5157011. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.8% | Pass 2.6% · Rush 4.6%1st 2.4% · 2nd 4.4% · 3rd 6.2% Standard downs 2.9% · Passing downs 5.8% | Not linked |
Cade Osterman · WRCFBD athlete 5150681. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.4% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 5.9% | Not linked |
Chris Kiel · WRCFBD athlete 5297929. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.2% | Pass 9.3% · Rush 0.9%1st 2.4% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 8.3% Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 6.3% | Not linked |
Dylan Vokal · WRCFBD athlete 5297959. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.4% | Pass 3.4% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jackson Williams · WRCFBD athlete 5228002. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 10.9% | Pass 23.8% · Rush 2.3%1st 10.0% · 2nd 9.6% · 3rd 14.7% Standard downs 9.7% · Passing downs 13.4% | Not linked |
Jeremiah Patterson · WRCFBD athlete 5219140. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.8% | Pass 6.5% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.9% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.4% Standard downs 2.3% · Passing downs 3.7% | Not linked |
Jett Zabel · TECFBD athlete 5228027. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.6% | Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.8% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jonathan Harvey · RBCFBD athlete 5157005. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.4% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.2%1st 3.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.0% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jordan McCants · WRCFBD athlete 4912254. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.9% | Pass 5.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.7% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.6% · Passing downs 2.6% | Not linked |
Kaden Zenzen · TECFBD athlete 5087167. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.6% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.9%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.3% | Not linked |
Logan Conklin · WRCFBD athlete 5228026. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.7% | Pass 6.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.8% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 1.9% Standard downs 2.8% · Passing downs 2.5% | Not linked |
Luke Kokat · TECFBD athlete 5087169. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.5% | Pass 4.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.3% · 2nd 1.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 1.6% | Not linked |
Mekhi Collins · WRCFBD athlete 4832952. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.7% | Pass 16.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 4.5% · 2nd 8.5% · 3rd 7.3% Standard downs 5.4% · Passing downs 9.3% | Not linked |
Nyeoti Punni · RBCFBD athlete 5157399. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.3% | Pass 1.7% · Rush 12.7%1st 11.3% · 2nd 9.0% · 3rd 1.1% Standard downs 9.5% · Passing downs 5.6% | Not linked |
Preston Brown · QBCFBD athlete 5297927. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.8% | Pass 3.1% · Rush 4.5%1st 1.2% · 2nd 3.8% · 3rd 8.4% Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 6.3% | Not linked |
Reis Kessel · TECFBD athlete 5228015. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.5% | Pass 13.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.2% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 12.8% Standard downs 3.7% · Passing downs 9.3% | Not linked |
Trey Drake · QBCFBD athlete 5156994. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.8% | Pass 13.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.3% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 20.0% Standard downs 5.5% · Passing downs 7.1% | Not linked |
Transfers
Incoming · 3 reported
| Player | From | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb McGrath · P | Minnesota | 2026-01-11 | 2★ / — | Immediate |
| Keith Williams Jr. · LB | Cornell | 2026-01-27 | — / — | Immediate |
| Kene Anene · IOL | Kansas | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
Outgoing · 7 reported
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Johnson · OT | Vanderbilt | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Eli Ozick · K | Iowa | 2026-01-04 | — / — | Immediate |
| Jailen Duffie · CB | UCF | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Jaquise Alexander · CB | Delaware | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Nathaniel Staehling · LB | Michigan | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Toby Anene · EDGE | Colorado | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Trent Fraley · IOL | Michigan State | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Coaching eras
Continuous appointments at North Dakota State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Tim Polasek · career 0–0 across 1 seasons and 1 schools
Tenure timeline · 1 appointments
2026–present · Tim Polasek · active at capture
0–0 · 0 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2023-12-17. Exact effective dates unavailable.
Season résumé · 2015–2026
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Tim Polasek · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | 9.5 | 2.5 | 117 | — |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
CFBD season overview
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data
Stat rankings
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:09:29 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 92 / 138 | 33.6 | 4 / 138 | 97.8 |
| Success rate | 113 / 138 | 18.2 | 26 / 138 | 81.8 |
| Explosiveness | 37 / 138 | 73.7 | 10 / 138 | 93.4 |
| Standard-down success | 114 / 138 | 17.5 | 60 / 138 | 56.9 |
| Passing-down success | 85 / 138 | 38.7 | 2 / 138 | 99.3 |
| Pass PPA | 72 / 138 | 48.2 | 2 / 138 | 99.3 |
| Rush PPA | 110 / 138 | 20.4 | 15 / 138 | 89.8 |
| Pass explosiveness | 25 / 138 | 82.5 | 62 / 138 | 55.5 |
| Rush explosiveness | 43 / 138 | 69.3 | 33 / 138 | 76.6 |
| Line yards | 92 / 138 | 33.6 | 49 / 138 | 65.0 |
| Second-level yards | 68 / 138 | 51.1 | 48 / 138 | 65.7 |
| Open-field yards | 120 / 138 | 13.1 | 15 / 138 | 89.8 |
| Stuff rate | 119 / 138 | 13.9 | 41 / 138 | 70.8 |
| Power success | 98 / 138 | 29.2 | T78 / 138 | 43.4 |
| Havoc | T72 / 138 | 47.8 | T35 / 138 | 74.5 |
| Front-seven havoc | T72 / 138 | 46.7 | T42 / 138 | 69.0 |
| DB havoc | T62 / 138 | 53.6 | T36 / 138 | 73.4 |
| Points / opportunity | 80 / 138 | 42.3 | 1 / 138 | 100.0 |
| Average field position | 56 / 138 | 59.9 | T82 / 138 | 40.5 |
| Field-position expected points | 46 / 138 | 67.2 | 67 / 138 | 51.8 |
Player PPA and usage
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
Nathan Hayes · QBUsage 45.4% · Avg PPA 0.274 · Total 65.122
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.274 | 65.122 | 45.4% |
| Pass | 0.222 | 44.530 | 95.7% |
| Rush | 0.688 | 24.763 | 11.9% |
| 1st down | 0.063 | 5.069 | 36.7% |
| 2nd down | 0.293 | 23.708 | 45.8% |
| 3rd down | 0.531 | 36.075 | 62.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.133 | 17.631 | 37.8% |
| Passing downs | 0.452 | 47.491 | 61.0% |
Myles Mitchell · RBUsage 20.7% · Avg PPA -0.015 · Total -1.371
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.015 | -1.371 | 20.7% |
| Pass | -0.041 | -0.207 | 2.7% |
| Rush | -0.013 | -1.164 | 34.2% |
| 1st down | -0.020 | -0.943 | 25.4% |
| 2nd down | 0.009 | 0.285 | 20.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.129 | 1.548 | 12.5% |
| Standard downs | -0.063 | -4.473 | 23.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.135 | 3.102 | 15.2% |
DJ Scott · RBUsage 20.1% · Avg PPA 0.022 · Total 1.983
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.022 | 1.983 | 20.1% |
| Pass | 0.662 | 6.624 | 5.4% |
| Rush | -0.057 | -4.641 | 31.5% |
| 1st down | -0.150 | -7.658 | 26.4% |
| 2nd down | 0.069 | 1.723 | 16.7% |
| 3rd down | 0.740 | 8.885 | 12.8% |
| Standard downs | -0.048 | -3.666 | 25.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.377 | 5.649 | 10.0% |
Jackson Williams · WRUsage 10.9% · Avg PPA 0.515 · Total 29.371
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.515 | 29.371 | 10.9% |
| Pass | 0.517 | 25.842 | 23.8% |
| Rush | 0.504 | 3.530 | 2.3% |
| 1st down | 0.284 | 6.238 | 10.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.097 | 1.648 | 9.6% |
| 3rd down | 1.377 | 22.032 | 14.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.208 | 7.083 | 9.7% |
| Passing downs | 0.969 | 22.289 | 13.4% |
Nyeoti Punni · RBUsage 8.3% · Avg PPA -0.124 · Total -4.698
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.124 | -4.698 | 8.3% |
| Pass | -0.296 | -0.887 | 1.7% |
| Rush | -0.109 | -3.810 | 12.7% |
| 1st down | -0.145 | -3.191 | 11.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.081 | 1.127 | 9.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.601 | 1.601 | 1.1% |
| Standard downs | -0.267 | -8.010 | 9.5% |
| Passing downs | 0.414 | 3.313 | 5.6% |
Mekhi Collins · WRUsage 6.7% · Avg PPA 0.276 · Total 9.651
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.276 | 9.651 | 6.7% |
| Pass | 0.276 | 9.651 | 16.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.056 | -0.565 | 4.5% |
| 2nd down | 0.326 | 4.885 | 8.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.500 | 3.997 | 7.3% |
| Standard downs | 0.486 | 9.240 | 5.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.026 | 0.411 | 9.3% |
Barry Kpeenu · RBUsage 5.9% · Avg PPA -0.273 · Total -5.468
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.273 | -5.468 | 5.9% |
| Pass | -1.410 | -1.410 | 0.8% |
| Rush | -0.214 | -4.058 | 9.3% |
| 1st down | 0.004 | 0.035 | 5.6% |
| 2nd down | -0.451 | -4.506 | 8.8% |
| 3rd down | -0.498 | -0.997 | 2.9% |
| Standard downs | -0.230 | -3.445 | 6.3% |
| Passing downs | -0.405 | -2.023 | 5.1% |
Trey Drake · QBUsage 5.8% · Avg PPA 1.302 · Total 5.208
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.302 | 5.208 | 5.8% |
| Pass | 1.302 | 5.208 | 13.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 1.299 | 1.299 | 3.3% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.303 | 3.909 | 20.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.608 | 1.825 | 5.5% |
| Passing downs | 3.382 | 3.382 | 7.1% |
Reis Kessel · TEUsage 5.5% · Avg PPA 0.739 · Total 21.437
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.739 | 21.437 | 5.5% |
| Pass | 0.739 | 21.437 | 13.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.381 | 2.669 | 3.2% |
| 2nd down | 0.748 | 5.238 | 4.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.258 | 17.605 | 12.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.213 | 2.770 | 3.7% |
| Passing downs | 1.167 | 18.667 | 9.3% |
Chris Kiel · WRUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA 0.759 · Total 12.904
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.759 | 12.904 | 4.2% |
| Pass | 0.842 | 12.623 | 9.3% |
| Rush | 0.140 | 0.281 | 0.9% |
| 1st down | 0.402 | 1.610 | 2.4% |
| 2nd down | 1.307 | 6.537 | 3.7% |
| 3rd down | 0.518 | 3.627 | 8.3% |
| Standard downs | 0.272 | 2.449 | 3.3% |
| Passing downs | 1.307 | 10.455 | 6.3% |
Brady Wavrunek · RBUsage 3.8% · Avg PPA -0.086 · Total -1.284
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.086 | -1.284 | 3.8% |
| Pass | -0.817 | -3.267 | 2.6% |
| Rush | 0.180 | 1.983 | 4.6% |
| 1st down | -0.355 | -1.418 | 2.4% |
| 2nd down | -0.331 | -1.984 | 4.4% |
| 3rd down | 0.424 | 2.118 | 6.2% |
| Standard downs | 0.218 | 1.748 | 2.9% |
| Passing downs | -0.433 | -3.032 | 5.8% |
Preston Brown · QBUsage 3.8% · Avg PPA -0.187 · Total -2.802
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.187 | -2.802 | 3.8% |
| Pass | -0.861 | -4.304 | 3.1% |
| Rush | 0.150 | 1.502 | 4.5% |
| 1st down | -0.434 | -0.867 | 1.2% |
| 2nd down | -0.204 | -1.020 | 3.8% |
| 3rd down | -0.306 | -2.140 | 8.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.336 | -2.355 | 2.6% |
| Passing downs | -0.056 | -0.447 | 6.3% |
Jeremiah Patterson · WRUsage 2.8% · Avg PPA -0.233 · Total -2.094
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.233 | -2.094 | 2.8% |
| Pass | -0.233 | -2.094 | 6.5% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.045 | 0.181 | 2.9% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.455 | -2.275 | 7.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.096 | -0.478 | 2.3% |
| Passing downs | -0.404 | -1.616 | 3.7% |
Logan Conklin · WRUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.759 · Total 5.310
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.759 | 5.310 | 2.7% |
| Pass | 0.759 | 5.310 | 6.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.180 | -0.360 | 1.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.856 | 3.423 | 4.8% |
| 3rd down | 2.247 | 2.247 | 1.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.152 | 0.762 | 2.8% |
| Passing downs | 2.274 | 4.548 | 2.5% |
Jordan McCants · WRUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA 1.070 · Total 5.350
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.070 | 5.350 | 1.9% |
| Pass | 1.070 | 5.350 | 5.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.233 | -0.700 | 2.7% |
| 2nd down | 3.025 | 6.050 | 2.2% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.233 | -0.700 | 1.6% |
| Passing downs | 3.025 | 6.050 | 2.6% |
Jett Zabel · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA 0.892 · Total 0.892
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.892 | 0.892 | 1.6% |
| Pass | 0.892 | 0.892 | 2.9% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.892 | 0.892 | 4.5% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.892 | 0.892 | 2.8% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Kaden Zenzen · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA -3.645 · Total -3.645
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -3.645 | -3.645 | 1.6% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | -3.645 | -3.645 | 2.9% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | -3.645 | -3.645 | 4.3% |
Luke Kokat · TEUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA -0.421 · Total -1.263
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.421 | -1.263 | 1.5% |
| Pass | -0.421 | -1.263 | 4.1% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.080 | -0.160 | 2.3% |
| 2nd down | -1.103 | -1.103 | 1.5% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.080 | -0.160 | 1.5% |
| Passing downs | -1.103 | -1.103 | 1.6% |
Cade Osterman · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 1.626 · Total 3.252
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.626 | 3.252 | 1.4% |
| Pass | 1.626 | 3.252 | 3.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.626 | 3.252 | 6.7% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | 1.626 | 3.252 | 5.9% |
Dylan Vokal · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 1.186 · Total 1.186
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.186 | 1.186 | 1.4% |
| Pass | 1.186 | 1.186 | 3.4% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.186 | 1.186 | 6.7% |
| Standard downs | 1.186 | 1.186 | 1.8% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Jonathan Harvey · RBUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -0.181 · Total -0.181
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.181 | -0.181 | 1.4% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | -0.181 | -0.181 | 2.2% |
| 1st down | -0.181 | -0.181 | 3.6% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.181 | -0.181 | 2.0% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
Values and percentiles
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | 0.090 | 34th138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.395 | 18th138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.281 | 74th138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | 0.216 | 48th138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | 0.024 | 20th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | -0.121 | 98th138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.361 | 82nd138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.092 | 93rd138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.175 | 74th138 teams | higher |
Passing profile
2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPACaptured 2026-10-30. Offense: 100% of 204 attempts charted. Average depth of target 10.6 yards (90th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 4.6 per completion. Completion 62.3%, 7.4 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.28.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 59.3% | 58.1% | +1.2 | 177 / 204 |
| Defense allowed | 52.8% | 60.1% | -7.3 | 159 / 181 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is North Dakota State.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
Defense and rushing detail
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 204 | 100% | 10.6 | 4.6 | 62.3% | 0.28 | +1.2 pp | 177 |
| Passing defense | 181 | 100% | 8.9 | 3.8 | 53.0% | -0.11 | -7.3 pp | 159 |
Rushing production
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 315 | 4.1 | 39.5% | 0.04 | 3.00 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 18.9% | 66.7% |
| Defense allowed | 281 | 3.5 | 38.2% | -0.02 | 2.80 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 18.5% | 72.4% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
Rushing sample and attribution
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 308 / 315 | 300 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 296 / 296 · 100.0% |
| Defense allowed | 275 / 281 | 266 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 258 / 259 · 99.6% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
Game-by-game passing and rushing
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +1.2 pp. 7 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
Game log and attempt coverage
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Fordham | 26 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.4 | 0.66 | 43 | 2.9 | 0.17 |
| W1 | Jacksonville State | 23 | 23 | 65.2% | 61.1% | +4.1 pp | 8.6 | 0.42 | 44 | 4.8 | 0.14 |
| W2 | Air Force | 23 | 23 | 65.2% | 58.6% | +6.6 pp | 11.4 | 0.27 | 37 | 4.1 | 0.10 |
| W3 | Sacramento State | 25 | 25 | 56.0% | 55.9% | +0.1 pp | 13.2 | 0.45 | 34 | 4.5 | -0.15 |
| W5 | Wyoming | 25 | 25 | 56.0% | 55.9% | +0.1 pp | 11.3 | 0.31 | 45 | 4.9 | 0.18 |
| W6 | UNLV | 22 | 22 | 54.5% | 57.7% | -3.2 pp | 13.1 | -0.06 | 39 | 4.8 | -0.15 |
| W7 | Nevada | 25 | 25 | 76.0% | 66.8% | +9.3 pp | 5.6 | 0.34 | 45 | 4.3 | 0.14 |
| W8 | New Mexico | 35 | 34 | 47.1% | 52.9% | -5.9 pp | 13.3 | -0.06 | 28 | 2.1 | -0.25 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
Punting and returns
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
Our punts
30 punts · 45.9 gross yards/punt · 35.4 net yards/punt
9 inside the 20 · 4 touchbacks · 0 blocked
Known gross yards: 30/30 punts. Known net yards: 24/30 punts.
Our punt returns
11 returns · 15.1 yards/return · 1 touchdowns
0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 11/11 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
Recent games
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 · New Mexico | 6 | 47.5 | 32.7 | 6/6 |
| Week 7 · Nevada | 6 | 49.2 | 34.3 | 6/6 |
| Week 6 · UNLV | 5 | 41.0 | 33.3 | 3/5 |
| Week 5 · Wyoming | 4 | 50.3 | 31.0 | 3/4 |
| Week 3 · Sacramento State | 3 | 42.7 | 41.7 | 3/3 |