North Carolina

2026 season

ACC

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

North Carolina's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 54.5 across 8 systems; best 41, worst 77, so they disagree by 36 places.

Lab EPA: #54; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #55; down 82026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #58; down 42026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #77; down 32026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #43; down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #60; down 2 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #41; down 72026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #54; down 52026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #38 of 138
Schedule strength: #27 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #42 of 138
Game control: #23 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #41 of 138
Offense: #42 of 138
Defense: #44 of 138
Special teams: #31 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

North Carolina · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.032 net EPA/play

#54

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

2.84 points

#55 · Down 8 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +3.16 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +1.61, schedule #30 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average +5.54. That is worth +4.77 on its own; the preseason prior of -3.09 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +2.84.

How each game enters this SRS rating

North Carolina · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · TCU neutral · 2026-08-29 · ID 401856766	+5.00 → +5.00	0.00	0.7637	9.36%	+4.38	0.468	0.410	0.878
Week 2 · East Tennessee State home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401858218	+32.00 → +32.00	-2.50	0.7937	9.73%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	2.869	-2.431	0.438
Week 3 · Clemson away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858229	-8.00 → -8.00	+2.50	0.8249	10.11%	+1.52	-0.556	0.154	-0.402
Week 5 · Notre Dame home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401858250	-11.00 → -11.00	-2.50	0.8909	10.92%	+19.89	-1.474	2.172	0.698
Week 6 · Pittsburgh away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401858256	+4.00 → +4.00	+2.50	0.9259	11.34%	+4.19	0.737	0.475	1.213
Week 7 · Duke away · 2026-10-17 · ID 401858266	+4.00 → +4.00	+2.50	0.9622	11.79%	+4.78	0.766	0.563	1.329
Week 8 · Syracuse home · 2026-10-24 · ID 401858275	-1.00 → -1.00 (OT)	-2.50	1.0000	12.25%	-1.04	-0.429	-0.128	-0.557

Game terms +3.60 points; prior term -0.76 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +2.84 points. The preseason prior is -3.09 with 24.51% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

3.7 SP+ points

#58 · Down 4 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

1.48 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#60 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 0.84 on 352 plays; defense -0.64 on 439 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks North Carolina 1 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 4-3 · conf 2-2 · home 1-2 · away 2-1 · expected wins 3.7
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 4-3 ATS (+2.6 avg) · 2025: 5-7 ATS (-3.8 avg)
Head coach: Bill Belichick · hired 2024-12-11 · 4-8 over 2 captured seasons
Recruiting classes: 2024 #26 (229 pts) · 2025 #41 (208 pts) · 2026 #19 (248 pts)
Returning: 28% of production · 32% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 10% 3%
Receiving 33% 44%
Rushing 54% 53%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	10%	3%
Receiving	33%	44%
Rushing	54%	53%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	18	3.33	0.8898	16.02
Defensive Line	26	3.23	0.8720	22.67
Linebacker	12	3.17	0.8738	10.49
Offensive Line	19	3.05	0.8706	16.54
Quarterback	5	3.60	0.9011	4.51
Receiver	19	3.26	0.8782	16.69
Running Back	8	3.00	0.8687	6.95
Special Teams	10	3.10	0.8525	8.52

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Billy Edwards · QB CFBD athlete 4592532. Maryland (2022–2024); North Carolina (2026–2026); Wake Forest (2021–2021); Wisconsin (2025–2025)	Passing WEPA	0.398	199	55.5%	Pass 96.8% · Rush 10.9% 1st 49.2% · 2nd 53.7% · 3rd 73.5% Standard downs 50.3% · Passing downs 67.2%	2021: 3★ · 0.8356
Demon June · RB CFBD athlete 5228607. North Carolina (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.286	54	14.5%	Pass 1.8% · Rush 29.5% 1st 13.0% · 2nd 16.4% · 3rd 13.3% Standard downs 16.1% · Passing downs 10.9%	2025: 3★ · 0.8678
Benjamin Hall · RB CFBD athlete 5008017. Michigan (2023–2024); North Carolina (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.080	53	18.8%	Pass 5.2% · Rush 33.5% 1st 21.2% · 2nd 22.3% · 3rd 9.1% Standard downs 21.1% · Passing downs 14.0%	Not linked
Jaylen McGill · RB CFBD athlete 5161835. North Carolina (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.201	39	11.2%	Pass 2.3% · Rush 21.8% 1st 13.5% · 2nd 10.4% · 3rd 8.4% Standard downs 12.0% · Passing downs 9.4%	2025: 3★ · 0.8893
Aeron Burrell · PK CFBD athlete 5139524. LSU (2024–2025); North Carolina (2026–2026)	Kicker PAAR	-4.190	7	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	2024: 3★ · 0.8261
Rece Verhoff · PK CFBD athlete 5082559. North Carolina (2025–2026); Marshall (2022–2024)	Kicker PAAR	1.680	4	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	2022: stars unavailable
C.J. Sadler · WR CFBD athlete 5159039. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.6%	Pass 9.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.2% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 7.7% Standard downs 3.7% · Passing downs 6.5%	Not linked
Carson Sneed · TE CFBD athlete 5159086. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.9%	Pass 3.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.9% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 5.3% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 2.6%	Not linked
Charleston French · RB CFBD athlete 5219169. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.6%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 7.7% 1st 3.4% · 2nd 5.9% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 5.6%	Not linked
Crew Davis · RB CFBD athlete 5265173. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.6%	Pass 3.7% · Rush 3.8% 1st 3.4% · 2nd 5.9% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 5.4% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Jelani Thurman · TE CFBD athlete 4871039. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	13.1%	Pass 25.2% · Rush 0.0% 1st 13.5% · 2nd 14.2% · 3rd 9.6% Standard downs 14.4% · Passing downs 10.2%	Not linked
Jo Jo Troupe · RB CFBD athlete 5198251. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	9.1%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 19.2% 1st 3.4% · 2nd 11.8% · 3rd 22.2% Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 22.2%	Not linked
Jordan Shipp · WR CFBD athlete 5079687. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	11.9%	Pass 22.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 8.8% · 2nd 11.9% · 3rd 18.1% Standard downs 9.2% · Passing downs 18.0%	Not linked
Jordan Washington · TE CFBD athlete 5146756. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.9%	Pass 4.3% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 5.9% Standard downs 3.6% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Kaleb Jackson · RB CFBD athlete 4870839. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.5%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.7% 1st 3.3% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.2% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Kymistrii Young · WR CFBD athlete 5271149. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.6%	Pass 7.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.4% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 11.1% Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 5.6%	Not linked
Mason Humphrey · WR CFBD athlete 5152717. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.5%	Pass 11.1% · Rush 0.0% 1st 4.5% · 2nd 10.7% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 5.6% · Passing downs 5.4%	Not linked
Miles O'Neill · QB CFBD athlete 5145396. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	12.7%	Pass 22.2% · Rush 3.8% 1st 10.3% · 2nd 5.9% · 3rd 33.3% Standard downs 10.8% · Passing downs 16.7%	Not linked
Nyqir Helton · WR CFBD athlete 5214654. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.2%	Pass 9.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 6.9% · 2nd 2.3% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 5.9% · Passing downs 3.0%	Not linked
Shamar Easter · TE CFBD athlete 4870709. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.0%	Pass 7.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 4.9% · 2nd 3.6% · 3rd 2.9% Standard downs 4.9% · Passing downs 1.9%	Not linked
Trech Kekahuna · WR CFBD athlete 5077266. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.7%	Pass 10.6% · Rush 0.5% 1st 5.7% · 2nd 5.2% · 3rd 7.2% Standard downs 5.8% · Passing downs 5.5%	Not linked
Zamaurious Robertson · WR CFBD athlete 5279149. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.8%	Pass 3.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 11.1% Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 19 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Ade Willie · CB	Michigan State	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Aeron Burrell · K	LSU	2026-01-10	3★ / —	Immediate
Andrew Threatt · IOL	Charleston Southern	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Billy Edwards Jr. · QB	Wisconsin	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Brandon Homady · IOL	West Virginia	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Derek McDonald · LB	Syracuse	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Donovan Hoilette · EDGE	Richmond	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jaxxon Warren · TE	Colorado State	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jaylen Harvey · EDGE	Penn State	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jelani Thurman · TE	Ohio State	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8900	Immediate
Jordan Washington · TE	Texas	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate
Kaleb Jackson · RB	LSU	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Mason Humphrey · WR	Lehigh	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Miles O'Neill · QB	Texas A&M	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Peyton Seelmann · LB	Richmond	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Rowan Byrne · IOL	Clemson	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Shaq McRoy · OT	Arkansas	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Tarvorise Brown · DL	Florida	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Trech Kekahuna · WR	Wisconsin	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate

Outgoing · 32 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Alex Taylor · WR	Georgia Southern	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Austin Alexander · EDGE	Western Michigan	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Aziah Johnson · WR	Not reported	2025-12-05	3★ / —	Immediate
Bo Burkes · IOL	Jacksonville State	2026-01-08	3★ / —	Immediate
Bryce Baker · QB	Virginia Tech	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
CJ Mims · DL	Texas A&M	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate
Chinedu Onyeagoro · LB	Not reported	2026-04-02	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Chris Culliver · WR	Marshall	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Connor Cox · TE	Virginia	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
D'Antre Robinson · DL	Oregon	2026-01-12	4★ / 0.9300	Immediate
Davion Gause · RB	NC State	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Devin Ancrum · DL	Charlotte	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Gavin Gibson · S	Not reported	2026-09-05	3★ / —	Immediate
Gio Lopez · QB	Wake Forest	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jake Johnson · TE	Auburn	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jani Norwood · OT	Boston College	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jason Robinson Jr. · WR	Portland State	2026-02-03	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Javarius Green · WR	Boston College	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jaylon Nichols · RB	Not reported	2025-12-31	3★ / —	Immediate
Kamarion Thomas · DL	Not reported	2025-12-26	3★ / —	Immediate
Kenedy Uzoma · WR	Temple	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Khalil Conley · CB	App State	2026-01-08	3★ / —	Immediate
Khmori House · LB	Arkansas	2026-01-07	4★ / 0.9000	Immediate
Malcolm Ziglar · S	South Florida	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Max Johnson · QB	Georgia Southern	2026-01-10	3★ / —	Immediate
Mikai Gbayor · LB	Florida State	2026-01-15	4★ / 0.9100	Immediate
Miles McVay · OT	Mississippi State	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Paul Billups II · WR	Not reported	2025-12-02	3★ / —	Immediate
Ty White · CB	NC State	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Tyler Thompson · EDGE	Louisville	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
William Boone · OT	Texas State	2026-01-19	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Yasir Smith · EDGE	East Tennessee State	2026-01-26	3★ / —	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at North Carolina. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Bill Belichick · career 4–8 across 2 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 35 appointments

2025–present · Bill Belichick · active at capture
4–8 · 12 attributed games · 2 seasons
Hired 2024-12-11. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2024–2024 · Freddie Kitchens · interim
0–1 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2024-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2019–2024 · Mack Brown
44–33 · 77 attributed games · 6 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2018-11-27. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2012–2018 · Larry Fedora
45–43 · 88 attributed games · 7 seasons
Hired 2011-12-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2011–2011 · Everett Withers
7–6 · 13 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2011-07-28. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2007–2010 · Butch Davis
28–23 · 51 attributed games · 4 seasons
Hired 2006-11-13. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2001–2006 · John Bunting
27–45 · 72 attributed games · 6 seasons
Hired 2000-12-11. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1998–2000 · Carl Torbush
16–18 · 34 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1988–1997 · Mack Brown
69–46–1 · 116 attributed games · 10 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1978–1987 · Dick Crum
72–41–3 · 116 attributed games · 10 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1967–1977 · Bill Dooley
69–53–2 · 124 attributed games · 11 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1959–1966 · James Hickey
36–45 · 81 attributed games · 8 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1956–1958 · Jim Tatum
14–15–1 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1953–1955 · George Barclay
11–18–1 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1945–1952 · Carl Snavely
44–33–4 · 81 attributed games · 8 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1944–1944 · Gene McEver
1–7–1 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1943–1943 · Tom Young
6–3 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1942–1942 · Jim Tatum
5–2–2 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1936–1941 · Raymond Wolf
38–17–3 · 58 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1934–1935 · Carl Snavely
15–2–1 · 18 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1926–1933 · Chuck Collins
38–31–9 · 78 attributed games · 8 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1921–1925 · William Fetzer
30–12–4 · 46 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1920–1920 · Myron Fuller
2–6 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1919–1919 · Thomas Campbell
4–3–1 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1916–1916 · Thomas Campbell
5–4 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1913–1915 · T.C. Trenchard
19–8–1 · 28 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1912–1912 · William Martin
3–4–1 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1911–1911 · Branch Bocock
6–1–1 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1909–1910 · A.E. Brides
8–8 · 16 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1908–1908 · Edward Green
3–3–3 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1907–1907 · Otis Lamson
4–4–1 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1906–1906 · W.S. Keinholz
1–4–2 · 7 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1905–1905 · William Warner
4–3–1 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1904–1904 · Robert Brown
5–2–2 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1902–1903 · H.B. Olcott
11–4–3 · 18 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Bill Belichick · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	5	7	19	—
2025 · Bill Belichick	4–8	2–6	0–0	-6.6	-6.7	41	—
2024 · Mack Brown · incomplete attribution	6–6	—	—	5	0.7	26	—
2024 · Freddie Kitchens · incomplete attribution	0–1	—	—	5	0.7	26	—
2023 · Mack Brown	8–5	4–4	0–1	7.4	8.8	30	—
2022 · Mack Brown	9–5	6–3	0–1	7.8	4.2	11	—
2021 · Mack Brown	6–7	4–6	0–1	6.4	4.7	14	—
2020 · Mack Brown	8–4	7–3	0–1	18	—	19	18
2019 · Mack Brown	7–6	4–4	1–0	10.3	7.7	30	—
2018 · Larry Fedora	2–9	1–7	0–0	-2.5	-6.5	20	—
2017 · Larry Fedora	3–9	1–7	0–0	4.3	-2.3	29	—
2016 · Larry Fedora	8–5	5–3	0–1	15.9	10.2	32	—
2015 · Larry Fedora	11–3	8–1	0–1	20	19.2	28	15

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:26:20 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	85 / 138	38.7	51 / 138	63.5
Success rate	53 / 138	62.0	97 / 138	29.9
Explosiveness	124 / 138	10.2	5 / 138	97.1
Standard-down success	45 / 138	67.9	T122 / 138	11.3
Passing-down success	T72 / 138	47.8	16 / 138	89.1
Pass PPA	70 / 138	49.6	47 / 138	66.4
Rush PPA	105 / 138	24.1	70 / 138	49.6
Pass explosiveness	119 / 138	13.9	7 / 138	95.6
Rush explosiveness	128 / 138	7.3	24 / 138	83.2
Line yards	59 / 138	57.7	86 / 138	38.0
Second-level yards	58 / 138	58.4	27 / 138	81.0
Open-field yards	128 / 138	7.3	35 / 138	75.2
Stuff rate	50 / 138	64.2	138 / 138	0.0
Power success	T5 / 138	96.7	119 / 138	13.9
Havoc	T68 / 138	50.0	T122 / 138	11.3
Front-seven havoc	T52 / 138	61.7	T132 / 138	3.6
DB havoc	T90 / 138	34.3	T67 / 138	50.7
Points / opportunity	T63 / 138	54.4	T43 / 138	68.6
Average field position	T73 / 138	46.7	T111 / 138	17.5
Field-position expected points	68 / 138	51.1	T107 / 138	22.3

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Billy Edwards · QBUsage 55.5% · Avg PPA 0.190 · Total 44.174

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.190	44.174	55.5%
Pass	0.225	47.458	96.8%
Rush	-0.087	-1.831	10.9%
1st down	0.103	9.762	49.2%
2nd down	0.165	11.856	53.7%
3rd down	0.386	23.567	73.5%
Standard downs	0.113	16.639	50.3%
Passing downs	0.320	27.535	67.2%

Benjamin Hall · RBUsage 18.8% · Avg PPA -0.031 · Total -2.035

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.031	-2.035	18.8%
Pass	0.396	3.563	5.2%
Rush	-0.098	-5.598	33.5%
1st down	-0.106	-3.694	21.2%
2nd down	-0.183	-4.577	22.3%
3rd down	1.039	6.235	9.1%
Standard downs	-0.183	-9.170	21.1%
Passing downs	0.446	7.135	14.0%

Demon June · RBUsage 14.5% · Avg PPA 0.339 · Total 20.694

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.339	20.694	14.5%
Pass	0.938	3.753	1.8%
Rush	0.297	16.941	29.5%
1st down	-0.012	-0.302	13.0%
2nd down	0.422	9.277	16.4%
3rd down	0.412	4.529	13.3%
Standard downs	0.372	17.480	16.1%
Passing downs	0.230	3.214	10.9%

Jelani Thurman · TEUsage 13.1% · Avg PPA 0.231 · Total 12.707

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.231	12.707	13.1%
Pass	0.231	12.707	25.2%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.194	5.031	13.5%
2nd down	0.326	6.188	14.2%
3rd down	0.426	3.411	9.6%
Standard downs	0.148	6.223	14.4%
Passing downs	0.499	6.484	10.2%

Miles O'Neill · QBUsage 12.7% · Avg PPA 0.409 · Total 2.866

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.409	2.866	12.7%
Pass	0.296	1.778	22.2%
Rush	1.088	1.088	3.8%
1st down	0.027	0.082	10.3%
2nd down	-0.534	-0.534	5.9%
3rd down	1.106	3.318	33.3%
Standard downs	0.423	1.691	10.8%
Passing downs	0.392	1.175	16.7%

Jordan Shipp · WRUsage 11.9% · Avg PPA 0.976 · Total 48.779

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.976	48.779	11.9%
Pass	0.976	48.779	22.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.778	13.225	8.8%
2nd down	0.494	7.901	11.9%
3rd down	1.502	22.533	18.1%
Standard downs	0.937	25.287	9.2%
Passing downs	1.021	23.492	18.0%

Jaylen McGill · RBUsage 11.2% · Avg PPA 0.120 · Total 5.619

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.120	5.619	11.2%
Pass	0.068	0.342	2.3%
Rush	0.126	5.277	21.8%
1st down	0.024	0.615	13.5%
2nd down	-0.001	-0.012	10.4%
3rd down	0.717	5.016	8.4%
Standard downs	0.148	5.174	12.0%
Passing downs	0.037	0.445	9.4%

Jo Jo Troupe · RBUsage 9.1% · Avg PPA 0.092 · Total 0.461

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.092	0.461	9.1%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.092	0.461	19.2%
1st down	-0.425	-0.425	3.4%
2nd down	0.271	0.543	11.8%
3rd down	0.171	0.343	22.2%
Standard downs	-0.425	-0.425	2.7%
Passing downs	0.221	0.886	22.2%

Trech Kekahuna · WRUsage 5.7% · Avg PPA 0.041 · Total 0.977

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.041	0.977	5.7%
Pass	0.279	6.424	10.6%
Rush	-5.447	-5.447	0.5%
1st down	-0.202	-2.224	5.7%
2nd down	0.327	2.289	5.2%
3rd down	0.152	0.912	7.2%
Standard downs	-0.098	-1.670	5.8%
Passing downs	0.378	2.647	5.5%

Mason Humphrey · WRUsage 5.5% · Avg PPA -0.203 · Total -2.032

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.203	-2.032	5.5%
Pass	-0.203	-2.032	11.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.195	0.782	4.5%
2nd down	-0.469	-2.813	10.7%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.188	-1.313	5.6%
Passing downs	-0.240	-0.719	5.4%

Nyqir Helton · WRUsage 5.2% · Avg PPA -0.247 · Total -1.731

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.247	-1.731	5.2%
Pass	-0.247	-1.731	9.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.115	-0.462	6.9%
2nd down	-0.608	-0.608	2.3%
3rd down	-0.330	-0.660	7.1%
Standard downs	-0.187	-1.122	5.9%
Passing downs	-0.608	-0.608	3.0%

C.J. Sadler · WRUsage 4.6% · Avg PPA 0.476 · Total 6.192

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.476	6.192	4.6%
Pass	0.476	6.192	9.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.410	2.873	5.2%
2nd down	0.606	1.211	2.2%
3rd down	0.527	2.108	7.7%
Standard downs	0.410	2.873	3.7%
Passing downs	0.553	3.319	6.5%

Shamar Easter · TEUsage 4.0% · Avg PPA 0.736 · Total 10.309

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.736	10.309	4.0%
Pass	0.736	10.309	7.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.604	4.834	4.9%
2nd down	0.218	0.871	3.6%
3rd down	2.302	4.604	2.9%
Standard downs	0.681	8.177	4.9%
Passing downs	1.066	2.132	1.9%

Charleston French · RBUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.659 · Total -1.318

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.659	-1.318	3.6%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.659	-1.318	7.7%
1st down	-1.385	-1.385	3.4%
2nd down	0.067	0.067	5.9%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-1.385	-1.385	2.7%
Passing downs	0.067	0.067	5.6%

Crew Davis · RBUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.275 · Total -0.551

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.275	-0.551	3.6%
Pass	-0.160	-0.160	3.7%
Rush	-0.391	-0.391	3.8%
1st down	-0.160	-0.160	3.4%
2nd down	-0.391	-0.391	5.9%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.275	-0.551	5.4%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Kymistrii Young · WRUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.901 · Total -1.803

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.901	-1.803	3.6%
Pass	-0.901	-1.803	7.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.846	-0.846	3.4%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.957	-0.957	11.1%
Standard downs	-0.846	-0.846	2.7%
Passing downs	-0.957	-0.957	5.6%

Jordan Washington · TEUsage 2.9% · Avg PPA -0.128 · Total -0.255

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.128	-0.255	2.9%
Pass	-0.128	-0.255	4.3%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.478	0.478	3.6%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.733	-0.733	5.9%
Standard downs	-0.128	-0.255	3.6%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Carson Sneed · TEUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA -0.056 · Total -0.113

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.056	-0.113	1.9%
Pass	-0.056	-0.113	3.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.527	0.527	1.9%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.640	-0.640	5.3%
Standard downs	0.527	0.527	1.5%
Passing downs	-0.640	-0.640	2.6%

Zamaurious Robertson · WRUsage 1.8% · Avg PPA 1.609 · Total 1.609

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.609	1.609	1.8%
Pass	1.609	1.609	3.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	1.609	1.609	11.1%
Standard downs	1.609	1.609	2.7%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Kaleb Jackson · RBUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA -0.235 · Total -0.235

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.235	-0.235	1.5%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.235	-0.235	2.7%
1st down	-0.235	-0.235	3.3%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.235	-0.235	2.2%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Where North Carolina sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

North Carolina metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.110	39th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.448	62nd138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.117	10th138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.217	50th138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	0.031	24th138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.036	64th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.427	30th138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.058	97th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.127	11th138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 100% of 207 attempts charted. Average depth of target 7.8 yards (21st percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 6.3 per completion. Completion 59.9%, 7.5 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.29.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	58.6%	61.1%	-2.5	181 / 207
Defense allowed	63.1%	63.5%	-0.4	206 / 243

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is North Carolina.

Target mix by zone, North Carolina offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

North Carolina passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	207	100%	7.8	6.3	59.9%	0.29	-2.5 pp	181
Passing defense	243	98%	6.7	5.5	63.8%	0.16	-0.4 pp	206

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	206	4.0	43.9%	0.08	3.30	1.20	0.70	14.3%	85.0%
Defense allowed	274	4.1	46.7%	0.07	3.20	0.80	0.80	9.3%	80.4%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	204 / 206	201	5	14	3	3	0	189 / 189 · 100.0%
Defense allowed	266 / 274	263	11	13	2	4	0	257 / 257 · 100.0%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -2.5 pp. 6 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	TCU	28	28	57.1%	59.0%	-1.8 pp	8.6	0.21	29	3.5	-0.15
W2	East Tennessee State	26	0	—	—	—	9.3	0.61	27	6.0	0.42
W3	Clemson	30	30	43.3%	62.2%	-18.9 pp	7.1	-0.17	38	5.8	0.27
W5	Notre Dame	28	28	60.7%	59.6%	+1.1 pp	8.4	0.32	23	3.3	0.01
W6	Pittsburgh	26	26	69.2%	65.5%	+3.8 pp	6.7	0.27	25	0.8	-0.18
W7	Duke	25	25	60.0%	60.1%	-0.1 pp	7.4	0.58	39	3.4	-0.07
W8	Syracuse	44	44	61.4%	60.6%	+0.8 pp	7.4	0.31	25	4.0	0.17

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

24 punts · 42.8 gross yards/punt · 36.9 net yards/punt

9 inside the 20 · 0 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 24/24 punts. Known net yards: 22/24 punts.

Our punt returns

9 returns · 7.6 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 1 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 9/9 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 8 · Syracuse	3	42.7	39.5	2/3
Week 7 · Duke	3	41.7	36.7	3/3
Week 6 · Pittsburgh	6	36.8	28.6	5/6
Week 5 · Notre Dame	3	44.7	38.0	3/3
Week 3 · Clemson	4	47.3	45.0	4/4

Team style

Rating history