Record
2-5 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook recordMissouri State
2026 season
Conference USA
2026 preseason report
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
What every system says
Missouri State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 129.5 across 8 systems; best 123, worst 136, so they disagree by 13 places.
- Lab EPA
- #136
- Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- Lab SRS
- #128
- down 72026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- SP+
- #128
- down 22026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
- Elo
- #123
- down 32026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- FPI
- #128
- down 52026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CORE
- #134
- up 2 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CFBD SRS
- #131
- down 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- WEPA
- #136
- down 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI context
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Résumé and schedule
Results earned and schedule difficulty
- Strength of record
- #124 of 138
- Schedule strength
- #81 of 138
- Remaining schedule strength
- #108 of 138
- Game control
- #105 of 138
Unit efficiency
Performance by unit
- Overall
- #125 of 138
- Offense
- #105 of 138
- Defense
- #127 of 138
- Special teams
- #92 of 138
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
Why the ratings disagree
Missouri State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
Descriptive EPA
-0.215 net EPA/play
#136
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD playsLocal predictive SRS
-11.70 points
#128 · Down 7 places since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -8.23 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -6.26, schedule #107 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -3.47. That is worth -14.49 on its own; the preseason prior of -3.16 still carries 25% of the weight, giving -11.70.
How each game enters this SRS rating
Missouri State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Texas A&M away · 2026-09-05 · ID 401856668 | -50.00 → -35.00 | +2.50 | 0.7637 | 9.40% | +7.08 | -3.054 | 0.666 | -2.388 |
| Week 2 · Lindenwood home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401871046 | +34.00 → +34.00 | -2.50 | 0.7937 | 9.77% | -25.00 (fixed lower division) | 3.076 | -2.441 | 0.635 |
| Week 3 · Marshall home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401871047 | -6.00 → -6.00 | -2.50 | 0.8249 | 10.15% | -10.24 | -0.863 | -1.040 | -1.902 |
| Week 4 · SMU away · 2026-09-27 · ID 401858241 | -10.00 → -10.00 | +2.50 | 0.8572 | 10.55% | +7.81 | -0.791 | 0.824 | 0.033 |
| Week 6 · Western Kentucky away · 2026-10-08 · ID 401871052 | -21.00 → -21.00 | +2.50 | 0.9259 | 11.39% | -7.94 | -2.107 | -0.905 | -3.012 |
| Week 7 · Kennesaw State home · 2026-10-14 · ID 401871054 | +3.00 → +3.00 | -2.50 | 0.9622 | 11.84% | -9.30 | 0.059 | -1.101 | -1.041 |
| Week 8 · Delaware away · 2026-10-20 · ID 401871069 | -23.00 → -23.00 | +2.50 | 1.0000 | 12.30% | -5.85 | -2.522 | -0.720 | -3.242 |
Game terms -10.92 points; prior term -0.78 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -11.70 points. The preseason prior is -3.16 with 24.61% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scoresExternal SP+
-16.9 SP+ points
#128 · Down 2 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbookExternal CORE
-21.22 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#134 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -7.07 on 335 plays; defense 14.16 on 412 plays.
2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks Missouri State 8 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidenceProgram context
2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches- Record
- 3-5 · conf 2-2 · home 3-1 · away 0-4 · expected wins 3.3
- Polls (Week 9)
- unranked
- CFP latest
- not published
- CFP final
- not published
- Against the spread
- 2026: 4-4 ATS (+0.6 avg) · 2025: 7-6 ATS (+1.4 avg)
- Head coach
- Casey Woods · hired 2025-12-19 · 0-0 over 1 captured season
- Recruiting classes
- 2025 #136 (53 pts) · 2026 #131 (152 pts)
- Returning
- 31% of production · 19% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage Passing 5% 0% Receiving 47% 42% Rushing -3% 19% Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
Recruiting by position group
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 5 | 3.00 | 0.8393 | 4.20 |
| Defensive Line | 8 | 2.63 | 0.8178 | 6.54 |
| Linebacker | 2 | 3.00 | 0.8425 | 1.69 |
| Offensive Line | 4 | 3.00 | 0.8298 | 3.32 |
| Quarterback | 3 | 2.67 | 0.8270 | 2.48 |
| Receiver | 5 | 2.60 | 0.8213 | 4.11 |
| Running Back | 2 | 3.00 | 0.8417 | 1.68 |
| Special Teams | 3 | 2.33 | 0.8033 | 2.41 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Player efficiency and usage
2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTCPassing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Henry Belin IV · QBCFBD athlete 4685252. Duke (2022–2025); Missouri State (2026–2026) | Passing WEPA | 0.342 | 109 | 31.6% | Pass 56.1% · Rush 7.1%1st 29.0% · 2nd 29.3% · 3rd 37.4% Standard downs 27.2% · Passing downs 41.4% | 2022: 3★ · 0.8633 |
Skyler Locklear · QBCFBD athlete 5083042. Austin Peay (2022–2023); Missouri State (2026–2026); UTEP (2024–2025) | Passing WEPA | 0.206 | 94 | 43.8% | Pass 74.8% · Rush 15.1%1st 42.2% · 2nd 39.4% · 3rd 58.8% Standard downs 39.4% · Passing downs 52.9% | 2022: stars unavailable |
Connor Lair · RBCFBD athlete 5085729. Missouri State (2022–2022); Missouri State (2024–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.150 | 44 | 15.0% | Pass 4.5% · Rush 26.1%1st 14.0% · 2nd 17.1% · 3rd 12.7% Standard downs 15.9% · Passing downs 13.2% | Not linked |
Ramone Green Jr. · RBCFBD athlete 5154284. Missouri State (2023–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.038 | 44 | 15.4% | Pass 5.3% · Rush 26.1%1st 17.7% · 2nd 16.5% · 3rd 11.8% Standard downs 17.9% · Passing downs 10.1% | Not linked |
Yousef Obeid · PKCFBD athlete 5155163. Michigan State (2023–2023); Missouri State (2024–2026) | Kicker PAAR | -1.470 | 10 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Stewart McDonald · PCFBD athlete 5227774. Missouri State (2025–2026) | Kicker PAAR | -1.970 | 1 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Amar'e Johnson · RBCFBD athlete 5327017. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.9% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 13.5%1st 8.8% · 2nd 11.1% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 10.9% · Passing downs 4.2% | Not linked |
Brendon McQueen · WRCFBD athlete 5227770. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.8% | Pass 6.9% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 11.1% Standard downs 3.1% · Passing downs 5.1% | Not linked |
Dillon Hipp · TECFBD athlete 5128052. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.4% | Pass 6.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.1% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 5.1% | Not linked |
Elijah Leonard · QBCFBD athlete 5227766. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.2% | Not linked |
Isaiah McMorris · WRCFBD athlete 5146723. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.2% | Pass 9.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.5% · 2nd 2.1% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 4.3% · Passing downs 4.1% | Not linked |
Isaiah Myers · WRCFBD athlete 5219476. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 11.1% | Pass 22.0% · Rush 0.8%1st 10.7% · 2nd 10.6% · 3rd 13.7% Standard downs 10.1% · Passing downs 13.2% | Not linked |
Jambres Dubar · RBCFBD athlete 5077390. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 12.0% | Pass 3.5% · Rush 20.1%1st 15.8% · 2nd 15.1% · 3rd 1.3% Standard downs 15.1% · Passing downs 5.7% | Not linked |
James Rexroat · TECFBD athlete 5221049. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jeron Askren · TECFBD athlete 5227784. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.2% | Pass 10.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 7.3% · 2nd 2.8% · 3rd 4.3% Standard downs 5.8% · Passing downs 3.9% | Not linked |
Jmariyae Robinson · WRCFBD athlete 4837193. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 14.0% | Pass 29.4% · Rush 0.9%1st 14.6% · 2nd 7.3% · 3rd 22.1% Standard downs 12.0% · Passing downs 18.7% | Not linked |
King Davis · RBCFBD athlete 5164337. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.7% | Pass 0.7% · Rush 8.2%1st 4.5% · 2nd 5.6% · 3rd 4.4% Standard downs 6.4% · Passing downs 1.0% | Not linked |
Makai Cope · WRCFBD athlete 4602895. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.4% | Pass 4.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.6% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 3.3% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 4.2% | Not linked |
Mekhi Miller · WRCFBD athlete 4712886. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.3% | Pass 11.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 6.6% · 2nd 6.3% · 3rd 2.5% Standard downs 4.8% · Passing downs 6.5% | Not linked |
Michael Osei-Bonsu · TECFBD athlete 5383072. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.2% | Not linked |
Witt Edwards · TECFBD athlete 5147337. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.6% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 4.7% Standard downs 0.9% · Passing downs 3.1% | Not linked |
Transfers
Incoming · 19 reported
| Player | From | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breezy Dubar · RB | Boise State | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Dylan Brooks · EDGE | Kansas | 2026-01-20 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Geo Jallah · S | Not reported | 2026-01-20 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Henry Belin IV · QB | Duke | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Isaiah Myers · WR | Western Kentucky | 2026-01-20 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Isaiah Villanueva · IOL | Jackson State | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Jalile Elliott · EDGE | Barton | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Joel Kpassou · CB | Duquesne | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Josh Lukusa · EDGE | Miami (OH) | 2026-01-18 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Kellen Lindstrom · EDGE | Tennessee | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| King Large · OT | SMU | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Malachi Madison · DL | Massachusetts | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8200 | Immediate |
| Markell Chapman · DL | Iowa State | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Mekhi Miller · WR | Tulsa | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Skyler Locklear · QB | UTEP | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Stratton Shufelt · LB | UTEP | 2026-01-20 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Tim Coleman · LS | UVA Wise | 2026-01-17 | — / — | Immediate |
| William Dixon III · OT | VMI | 2026-02-03 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Witt Edwards · TE | Vanderbilt | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
Outgoing · 11 reported
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Poole · DL | Coastal Carolina | 2026-01-11 | — / — | Immediate |
| Cash Hudson · IOL | South Florida | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| DJ Wesolak · EDGE | Coastal Carolina | 2026-04-22 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Ebubedike Nnabugwu · IOL | South Carolina | 2026-01-19 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Floyd Williams · CB | Not reported | 2025-12-15 | — / — | Immediate |
| JJ O'Neal · S | Not reported | 2025-12-12 | — / — | Immediate |
| Jeron Askren · TE | Not reported | 2025-12-28 | 2★ / — | Immediate |
| Mitchell Toney · DL | Coastal Carolina | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Ronnel Johnson · WR | Jacksonville State | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Tim Brantley Jr. · DL | Not reported | 2025-12-22 | — / — | Immediate |
| Tristian Gardner · WR | Coastal Carolina | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Coaching eras
Continuous appointments at Missouri State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Casey Woods · career 0–0 across 1 seasons and 1 schools
Tenure timeline · 3 appointments
2026–present · Casey Woods · active at capture
0–0 · 0 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-19. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2025–2025 · Nick Petrino · interim
0–1 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-11. Effective dates: 2025-12-18 to unknown.
2025–2025 · Ryan Beard
7–5 · 12 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2022-12-16. Effective dates: unknown to 2025-12-18.
Season résumé · 2015–2026
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Casey Woods · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | -16.6 | -17.1 | 131 | — |
| 2025 · Ryan Beard | 7–5 | 5–3 | 0–0 | -10.7 | -8.8 | 136 | — |
| 2025 · Nick Petrino | 0–1 | 0–0 | 0–1 | -10.7 | -8.8 | 136 | — |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
CFBD season overview
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data
Stat rankings
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:17:11 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 95 / 138 | 31.4 | 135 / 138 | 2.2 |
| Success rate | 86 / 138 | 38.0 | 135 / 138 | 2.2 |
| Explosiveness | 71 / 138 | 48.9 | 16 / 138 | 89.1 |
| Standard-down success | 73 / 138 | 47.4 | 137 / 138 | 0.7 |
| Passing-down success | 112 / 138 | 19.0 | 122 / 138 | 11.7 |
| Pass PPA | 55 / 138 | 60.6 | 128 / 138 | 7.3 |
| Rush PPA | 118 / 138 | 14.6 | 114 / 138 | 17.5 |
| Pass explosiveness | 18 / 138 | 87.6 | 41 / 138 | 70.8 |
| Rush explosiveness | 122 / 138 | 11.7 | 26 / 138 | 81.8 |
| Line yards | 101 / 138 | 27.0 | 126 / 138 | 8.8 |
| Second-level yards | 110 / 138 | 20.4 | 119 / 138 | 13.9 |
| Open-field yards | 105 / 138 | 24.1 | 90 / 138 | 35.0 |
| Stuff rate | 88 / 138 | 36.5 | 114 / 138 | 17.5 |
| Power success | T75 / 138 | 44.2 | 98 / 138 | 29.2 |
| Havoc | T98 / 138 | 28.8 | T122 / 138 | 11.3 |
| Front-seven havoc | T108 / 138 | 20.8 | T127 / 138 | 7.7 |
| DB havoc | T68 / 138 | 50.4 | T76 / 138 | 44.2 |
| Points / opportunity | T63 / 138 | 54.4 | 121 / 138 | 12.4 |
| Average field position | T122 / 138 | 11.3 | 137 / 138 | 0.7 |
| Field-position expected points | 121 / 138 | 12.4 | 137 / 138 | 0.7 |
Player PPA and usage
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
Skyler Locklear · QBUsage 43.8% · Avg PPA 0.143 · Total 19.703
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.143 | 19.703 | 43.8% |
| Pass | 0.209 | 23.616 | 74.8% |
| Rush | -0.035 | -0.842 | 15.1% |
| 1st down | 0.187 | 10.115 | 42.2% |
| 2nd down | 0.082 | 3.380 | 39.4% |
| 3rd down | 0.464 | 18.577 | 58.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.077 | 6.480 | 39.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.245 | 13.223 | 52.9% |
Henry Belin IV · QBUsage 30.5% · Avg PPA 0.087 · Total 10.848
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.087 | 10.848 | 30.5% |
| Pass | 0.261 | 27.932 | 51.7% |
| Rush | -0.484 | -6.776 | 7.3% |
| 1st down | 0.200 | 9.805 | 27.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.069 | -2.682 | 28.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.748 | 20.954 | 35.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.109 | 8.063 | 26.2% |
| Passing downs | 0.056 | 2.785 | 40.3% |
Ramone Green Jr. · RBUsage 15.2% · Avg PPA -0.007 · Total -0.464
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.007 | -0.464 | 15.2% |
| Pass | -0.033 | -0.428 | 5.8% |
| Rush | -0.001 | -0.036 | 25.7% |
| 1st down | 0.009 | 0.301 | 16.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.026 | -0.683 | 17.6% |
| 3rd down | -0.008 | -0.082 | 11.1% |
| Standard downs | -0.034 | -1.747 | 16.8% |
| Passing downs | 0.080 | 1.283 | 11.6% |
Jmariyae Robinson · WRUsage 14.1% · Avg PPA -0.026 · Total -1.406
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.026 | -1.406 | 14.1% |
| Pass | -0.038 | -1.998 | 28.4% |
| Rush | 0.296 | 0.592 | 1.0% |
| 1st down | 0.198 | 4.958 | 14.9% |
| 2nd down | 0.050 | 0.498 | 7.8% |
| 3rd down | 0.338 | 5.402 | 21.6% |
| Standard downs | -0.084 | -2.606 | 11.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.052 | 1.201 | 20.4% |
Jambres Dubar · RBUsage 14.0% · Avg PPA 0.046 · Total 2.043
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.046 | 2.043 | 14.0% |
| Pass | -0.347 | -2.082 | 4.0% |
| Rush | 0.109 | 4.125 | 23.9% |
| 1st down | -0.114 | -2.619 | 18.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.117 | 2.229 | 18.3% |
| 3rd down | 1.171 | 1.171 | 1.5% |
| Standard downs | -0.141 | -5.209 | 17.4% |
| Passing downs | 1.036 | 7.252 | 6.9% |
Connor Lair · RBUsage 12.8% · Avg PPA 0.049 · Total 2.790
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.049 | 2.790 | 12.8% |
| Pass | 0.419 | 4.609 | 4.9% |
| Rush | -0.040 | -1.819 | 21.5% |
| 1st down | 0.046 | 1.051 | 12.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.140 | 2.791 | 13.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.605 | 6.051 | 11.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.017 | 0.754 | 14.2% |
| Passing downs | 0.157 | 2.036 | 9.4% |
Isaiah Myers · WRUsage 11.6% · Avg PPA 1.304 · Total 67.832
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.304 | 67.832 | 11.6% |
| Pass | 1.299 | 64.936 | 22.3% |
| Rush | 1.448 | 2.896 | 0.9% |
| 1st down | 0.964 | 20.245 | 11.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.901 | 14.417 | 10.8% |
| 3rd down | 2.083 | 29.157 | 15.6% |
| Standard downs | 1.143 | 36.587 | 10.4% |
| Passing downs | 1.562 | 31.246 | 14.5% |
Amar'e Johnson · RBUsage 8.9% · Avg PPA 0.215 · Total 1.502
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.215 | 1.502 | 8.9% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.215 | 1.502 | 13.5% |
| 1st down | 0.204 | 0.612 | 8.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.155 | 0.466 | 11.1% |
| 3rd down | 0.424 | 0.424 | 7.1% |
| Standard downs | -0.051 | -0.305 | 10.9% |
| Passing downs | 1.807 | 1.807 | 4.2% |
Jeron Askren · TEUsage 5.9% · Avg PPA 0.177 · Total 2.832
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.177 | 2.832 | 5.9% |
| Pass | 0.177 | 2.832 | 10.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.102 | -1.018 | 8.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.683 | 2.048 | 3.4% |
| 3rd down | -0.324 | -0.648 | 3.5% |
| Standard downs | 0.255 | 3.310 | 7.0% |
| Passing downs | -0.159 | -0.477 | 3.7% |
Mekhi Miller · WRUsage 5.4% · Avg PPA 0.377 · Total 6.408
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.377 | 6.408 | 5.4% |
| Pass | 0.377 | 6.408 | 11.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.077 | 0.693 | 7.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.592 | 3.554 | 5.8% |
| 3rd down | 1.081 | 2.161 | 2.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.253 | 2.784 | 5.2% |
| Passing downs | 0.604 | 3.625 | 5.9% |
King Davis · RBUsage 5.3% · Avg PPA -0.131 · Total -1.827
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.131 | -1.827 | 5.3% |
| Pass | -0.395 | -0.395 | 0.8% |
| Rush | -0.110 | -1.432 | 9.6% |
| 1st down | -0.492 | -2.954 | 5.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.192 | 0.962 | 5.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.055 | 0.165 | 5.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.094 | -1.222 | 7.2% |
| Passing downs | -0.606 | -0.606 | 1.2% |
Isaiah McMorris · WRUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA -0.558 · Total -3.348
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.558 | -3.348 | 4.2% |
| Pass | -0.558 | -3.348 | 9.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.088 | 0.177 | 3.5% |
| 2nd down | -0.347 | -0.347 | 2.1% |
| 3rd down | 0.344 | 0.687 | 6.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.155 | 0.620 | 4.3% |
| Passing downs | -1.984 | -3.968 | 4.1% |
Brendon McQueen · WRUsage 3.8% · Avg PPA -0.329 · Total -1.317
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.329 | -1.317 | 3.8% |
| Pass | -0.329 | -1.317 | 6.9% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -1.157 | -1.157 | 2.6% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.053 | -0.159 | 11.1% |
| Standard downs | -0.786 | -1.572 | 3.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.128 | 0.256 | 5.1% |
Dillon Hipp · TEUsage 3.4% · Avg PPA 0.516 · Total 7.736
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.516 | 7.736 | 3.4% |
| Pass | 0.516 | 7.736 | 6.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.524 | 2.095 | 2.1% |
| 2nd down | 0.022 | 0.110 | 3.4% |
| 3rd down | 0.922 | 5.531 | 6.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.505 | 4.041 | 2.6% |
| Passing downs | 0.528 | 3.695 | 5.1% |
Makai Cope · WRUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA -0.983 · Total -5.898
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.983 | -5.898 | 2.5% |
| Pass | -0.983 | -5.898 | 4.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.226 | -0.451 | 2.0% |
| 2nd down | -1.130 | -1.130 | 1.3% |
| 3rd down | -0.348 | -0.697 | 4.1% |
| Standard downs | -0.527 | -1.582 | 1.9% |
| Passing downs | -1.439 | -4.316 | 4.0% |
Witt Edwards · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA 1.257 · Total 5.027
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.257 | 5.027 | 1.6% |
| Pass | 1.257 | 5.027 | 3.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 2.957 | 5.913 | 1.9% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.443 | -0.886 | 3.8% |
| Standard downs | 2.957 | 5.913 | 1.1% |
| Passing downs | -0.443 | -0.886 | 2.6% |
Elijah Leonard · QBUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 2.310 · Total 2.310
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2.310 | 2.310 | 1.3% |
| Pass | 2.310 | 2.310 | 3.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 2.310 | 2.310 | 7.1% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | 2.310 | 2.310 | 4.2% |
James Rexroat · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.085 · Total 0.085
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.085 | 0.085 | 1.3% |
| Pass | 0.085 | 0.085 | 3.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.085 | 0.085 | 3.7% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.085 | 0.085 | 1.8% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Michael Osei-Bonsu · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 2.310 · Total 2.310
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2.310 | 2.310 | 1.3% |
| Pass | 2.310 | 2.310 | 3.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 2.310 | 2.310 | 7.1% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | 2.310 | 2.310 | 4.2% |
2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
Values and percentiles
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | 0.077 | 31st138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.414 | 38th138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.238 | 49th138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | 0.253 | 61st138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | -0.020 | 14th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | 0.262 | 2nd138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.500 | 2nd138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.113 | 89th138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.127 | 11th138 teams | higher |
Passing profile
2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPACaptured 2026-10-30. Offense: 99% of 235 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.6 yards (50th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.7 per completion. Completion 66.8%, 7.9 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.27.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 64.6% | 62.4% | +2.2 | 209 / 235 |
| Defense allowed | 66.9% | 60.8% | +6.2 | 236 / 263 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Missouri State.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
Defense and rushing detail
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 235 | 99% | 8.6 | 5.7 | 66.8% | 0.27 | +2.2 pp | 209 |
| Passing defense | 263 | 98% | 9.1 | 5.4 | 65.4% | 0.38 | +6.2 pp | 236 |
Rushing production
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 263 | 3.8 | 46.1% | 0.05 | 2.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 16.6% | 74.4% |
| Defense allowed | 300 | 4.3 | 48.7% | 0.18 | 3.30 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 12.9% | 76.1% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
Rushing sample and attribution
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 254 / 263 | 248 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 241 / 241 · 100.0% |
| Defense allowed | 294 / 300 | 270 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 274 / 279 · 98.2% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
Game-by-game passing and rushing
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +2.2 pp. 7 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
Game log and attempt coverage
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Texas A&M | 17 | 17 | 47.1% | 65.3% | -18.3 pp | 7.2 | -0.27 | 23 | 1.4 | -0.56 |
| W2 | Lindenwood | 25 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.1 | 0.72 | 53 | 4.7 | 0.29 |
| W3 | Marshall | 29 | 29 | 69.0% | 61.1% | +7.9 pp | 8.6 | 0.64 | 36 | 5.2 | 0.17 |
| W4 | SMU | 33 | 33 | 63.6% | 61.2% | +2.5 pp | 8.7 | -0.12 | 28 | 2.6 | -0.08 |
| W6 | Western Kentucky | 38 | 38 | 52.6% | 62.2% | -9.6 pp | 9.8 | -0.12 | 29 | 4.7 | 0.20 |
| W7 | Kennesaw State | 40 | 39 | 71.8% | 62.4% | +9.4 pp | 6.9 | 0.26 | 33 | 3.6 | -0.18 |
| W8 | Delaware | 35 | 35 | 74.3% | 62.3% | +11.9 pp | 9.1 | 0.49 | 23 | 4.1 | 0.21 |
| W9 | Sam Houston | 18 | 18 | 66.7% | 64.1% | +2.5 pp | 8.1 | 0.65 | 38 | 3.0 | 0.05 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
Punting and returns
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
Our punts
27 punts · 41.3 gross yards/punt · 38.2 net yards/punt
7 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked
Known gross yards: 27/27 punts. Known net yards: 25/27 punts.
Our punt returns
7 returns · 11.7 yards/return · 0 touchdowns
0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 7/7 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
Recent games
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 · Sam Houston | 4 | 42.3 | 42.8 | 4/4 |
| Week 8 · Delaware | 2 | 29.5 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| Week 7 · Kennesaw State | 2 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 2/2 |
| Week 6 · Western Kentucky | 3 | 41.7 | 41.3 | 3/3 |
| Week 4 · SMU | 6 | 42.3 | 39.0 | 5/6 |