Mississippi State

2026 season

SEC

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Mississippi State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 44 across 8 systems; best 29, worst 58, so they disagree by 29 places.

Lab EPA: #44; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #53; down 42026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #52; down 42026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #58; no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #40; down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #29; down 11 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #35; down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #44; down 142026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #29 of 138
Schedule strength: #5 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #25 of 138
Game control: #42 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #36 of 138
Offense: #26 of 138
Defense: #63 of 138
Special teams: #62 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Mississippi State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.060 net EPA/play

#44

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

3.45 points

#53 · Down 4 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -1.84 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +6.55, schedule #5 of 138 (#1 = toughest). That is worth +4.71 on its own; the preseason prior of -0.38 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +3.45.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Mississippi State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · UL Monroe home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401856662	+49.00 → +35.00	-2.50	0.7637	9.44%	-17.75	3.067	-1.675	1.392
Week 2 · Minnesota away · 2026-09-12 · ID 401856677	+25.00 → +25.00	+2.50	0.7937	9.81%	-0.24	2.697	-0.024	2.673
Week 3 · South Carolina away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401856691	+7.00 → +7.00	+2.50	0.8249	10.19%	+6.83	0.968	0.696	1.664
Week 4 · Missouri home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401856703	+7.00 → +7.00	-2.50	0.8572	10.59%	+8.45	0.477	0.896	1.372
Week 5 · Alabama home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401856707	-33.00 → -33.00	-2.50	0.8909	11.01%	+18.66	-3.908	2.055	-1.853
Week 7 · LSU away · 2026-10-17 · ID 401856720	-31.00 → -31.00	+2.50	0.9622	11.89%	+18.36	-3.389	2.183	-1.206
Week 8 · Oklahoma home · 2026-10-24 · ID 401856730	-8.00 → -8.00	-2.50	1.0000	12.36%	+6.47	-1.297	0.799	-0.498

Game terms +3.54 points; prior term -0.10 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +3.45 points. The preseason prior is -0.38 with 24.71% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.3 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

6.0 SP+ points

#52 · Down 4 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

10.43 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#29 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 11.15 on 404 plays; defense 0.72 on 421 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Mississippi State 9 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 4-3 · conf 2-3 · home 2-2 · away 2-1 · expected wins 3.3
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 4-3 ATS (+1.9 avg) · 2025: 8-5 ATS (-0.4 avg)
Head coach: Jeff Lebby · hired 2023-11-26 · 7-18 over 3 captured seasons
Recruiting classes: 2024 #28 (223 pts) · 2025 #28 (225 pts) · 2026 #23 (231 pts)
Returning: 34% of production · 40% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 0% 20%
Receiving 28% 48%
Rushing 87% 51%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	0%	20%
Receiving	28%	48%
Rushing	87%	51%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	18	3.22	0.8787	15.82
Defensive Line	13	3.15	0.8829	11.48
Linebacker	6	3.17	0.8832	5.30
Offensive Line	13	3.08	0.8686	11.29
Quarterback	5	3.60	0.8945	4.47
Receiver	18	3.22	0.8805	15.85
Running Back	6	3.17	0.8775	5.27
Special Teams	8	3.13	0.8576	6.86

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Kamario Taylor · QB CFBD athlete 5177084. Mississippi State (2025–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.502	184	47.9%	Pass 80.6% · Rush 15.6% 1st 47.0% · 2nd 39.4% · 3rd 65.3% Standard downs 44.6% · Passing downs 55.5%	2025: 4★ · 0.9444
Fluff Bothwell · RB CFBD athlete 5220197. South Alabama (2024–2024); Mississippi State (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.288	93	24.3%	Pass 6.2% · Rush 43.9% 1st 25.8% · 2nd 29.9% · 3rd 14.7% Standard downs 25.0% · Passing downs 22.7%	2024: 3★ · 0.8256
Parker Puckett · QB CFBD athlete 5294646. Mississippi State (2025–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.186	67	29.3%	Pass 45.6% · Rush 11.4% 1st 23.4% · 2nd 25.3% · 3rd 40.7% Standard downs 28.1% · Passing downs 32.2%	Not linked
Kolin Wilson · RB CFBD athlete 5209427. Mississippi State (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.137	53	13.2%	Pass 5.0% · Rush 21.7% 1st 13.5% · 2nd 14.9% · 3rd 12.2% Standard downs 14.2% · Passing downs 10.9%	2025: 3★ · 0.8567
Kamario Taylor · QB CFBD athlete 5177084. Mississippi State (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.262	33	47.9%	Pass 80.6% · Rush 15.6% 1st 47.0% · 2nd 39.4% · 3rd 65.3% Standard downs 44.6% · Passing downs 55.5%	2025: 4★ · 0.9444
Kyle Ferrie · PK CFBD athlete 5092220. Mississippi State (2023–2026)	Kicker PAAR	2.530	8	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Anthony Evans III · WR CFBD athlete 4907671. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	14.0%	Pass 28.0% · Rush 0.8% 1st 17.0% · 2nd 10.6% · 3rd 13.3% Standard downs 15.0% · Passing downs 11.6%	Not linked
Camden Capehart · WR CFBD athlete 5246589. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.1%	Pass 1.3% · Rush 3.0% 1st 2.9% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.0% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Cooper Crosby · RB CFBD athlete 5280784. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.8%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 8.1% 1st 4.8% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 5.2% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Gracen Harris · WR CFBD athlete 5141501. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.9%	Pass 3.5% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 1.5% · 3rd 5.1% Standard downs 1.3% · Passing downs 3.1%	Not linked
J.J. Hill · RB CFBD athlete 5216626. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.8%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 14.6% 1st 7.2% · 2nd 10.0% · 3rd 2.3% Standard downs 8.4% · Passing downs 3.1%	Not linked
Joeseph Skipworth · TE CFBD athlete 5214449. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.7%	Pass 6.5% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.5% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 3.4% · Passing downs 4.3%	Not linked
Marquis Johnson · WR CFBD athlete 5076106. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.3%	Pass 13.0% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.8% · 2nd 7.5% · 3rd 4.4% Standard downs 5.2% · Passing downs 8.8%	Not linked
Matt Mayfield · WR CFBD athlete 5372128. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.3%	Pass 2.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.4% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.7% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Riley Williams · TE CFBD athlete 4871054. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.1%	Pass 4.2% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.4% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 4.5% Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 2.6%	Not linked
Sam West · TE CFBD athlete 4920164. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.2%	Pass 6.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.2% · 2nd 3.1% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 4.8%	Not linked
Sanfrisco Magee · WR CFBD athlete 5146736. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.7%	Pass 13.4% · Rush 0.4% 1st 4.0% · 2nd 9.3% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 6.1% · Passing downs 8.2%	Not linked
Xavier Gayten · RB CFBD athlete 5146781. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	8.3%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 16.1% 1st 9.1% · 2nd 8.6% · 3rd 5.7% Standard downs 9.0% · Passing downs 6.5%	Not linked
Zion Crumpton · WR CFBD athlete 5245413. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.5%	Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 4.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.4% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Zion Ragins · WR CFBD athlete 5079643. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.3%	Pass 13.0% · Rush 0.0% 1st 8.5% · 2nd 4.3% · 3rd 2.2% Standard downs 7.2% · Passing downs 4.1%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 28 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
AJ Swann · QB	App State	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Amaree Williams · EDGE	Florida State	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate
Brandon Sneh · OT	UAB	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
DJ Chester · OT	LSU	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Dealyn Evans · DL	Texas A&M	2026-01-13	4★ / 0.9000	Immediate
Eddie Kelly Jr. · DL	West Virginia	2026-08-25	3★ / —	Immediate
Gav Holman · LB	Florida State	2026-01-19	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Gus Cordova · EDGE	USC	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Isaiah Dent · OT	Oklahoma	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Ja'Elyne Matthews · OT	Florida State	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jaden Rashada · QB	Sacramento State	2026-01-22	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jamari Freeman · IOL	Mercer	2026-04-25	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
James Heard Jr. · LB	Syracuse	2026-03-26	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jamroc Grimsley · CB	Florida	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jardin Gilbert · S	LSU	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jayson Jenkins · EDGE	Florida State	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Kaylib Singleton · CB	Syracuse	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Kendel Dolby · S	Oklahoma	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
LJ Prudhomme · IOL	Arkansas	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Marcus Williams · S	Rice	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Mario Nash Jr. · OT	Florida State	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Marquis Johnson · WR	Missouri	2026-01-04	4★ / 0.9200	Immediate
Miles McVay · OT	North Carolina	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Quentin Taylor Jr. · CB	Iowa State	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Riley Williams · TE	Oregon State	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Terrance Love · S	Colorado	2026-04-25	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Tyler Miller · OT	LSU	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Zion Ragins · WR	Oklahoma	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate

Outgoing · 40 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Alex Lopez · IOL	Western Kentucky	2026-01-06	3★ / —	Immediate
Ashun Shepphard · DL	California	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Brennan Smith · IOL	Middle Tennessee	2026-04-29	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Cam Ball · TE	West Virginia	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Cam Thompson · WR	Not reported	2025-12-09	— / —	Immediate
Corey Clark · DL	Not reported	2025-12-08	— / —	Immediate
Cyrus Reyes · S	Kentucky	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
DK McGruder · CB	The Citadel	2026-05-28	3★ / —	Immediate
Davian Jackson · WR	Texas State	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Dwight Lewis III · CB	Not reported	2025-12-23	— / —	Immediate
Elijah Cannon · CB	Kansas	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Emeka Iloh · TE	Not reported	2025-12-17	3★ / —	Immediate
Fatt Forrest · LB	Not reported	2025-12-12	3★ / —	Immediate
Ferzell Shepard · WR	Not reported	2025-12-15	4★ / —	Immediate
Jaekwon Bouldin · OT	Jackson State	2026-01-11	3★ / —	Immediate
Jaron Glover · WR	South Florida	2026-01-05	3★ / —	Immediate
Jayven Williams · CB	BYU	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jayvin James · OT	Alabama	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate
Jimothy Lewis Jr. · OT	California	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Johnnie Daniels · RB	Tulane	2026-01-12	3★ / —	Immediate
Jordan Mosley · WR	Colorado State	2026-01-11	4★ / —	Immediate
Joseph Head Jr. · EDGE	Memphis	2026-01-09	3★ / —	Immediate
Kai McClendon · DL	Washington	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Kedrick Bingley-Jones · DL	Alabama	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Koby Keenum · IOL	Memphis	2026-01-08	3★ / —	Immediate
Lo'Kavion Jackson · S	Not reported	2025-12-15	3★ / —	Immediate
Luke Kromenhoek · QB	South Florida	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Luke Work · OT	Missouri	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8900	Immediate
Markus Allen · WR	Middle Tennessee	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Marlon Hauck · K	Tulsa	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Max Reese · TE	North Texas	2026-01-10	3★ / —	Immediate
Montrell Chapman · LB	Old Dominion	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Nathan Tiyce · P	Penn State	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Ricky Johnson · WR	Utah	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Seth Davis · RB	Tulsa	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Stonka Burnside · S	Memphis	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Terrance Hibbler Jr. · DL	Jackson State	2026-01-25	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Tony Mitchell · S	Ole Miss	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Tyler Woodard · S	Coastal Carolina	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Zack Owens · IOL	Missouri	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Mississippi State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Jeff Lebby · career 7–18 across 3 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 37 appointments

2024–present · Jeff Lebby · active at capture
7–18 · 25 attributed games · 3 seasons
Hired 2023-11-26. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2023–2023 · Greg Knox · interim
1–1 · 2 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2023-11-13. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2022–2023 · Zach Arnett
5–6 · 11 attributed games · 2 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2022-12-15. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2020–2022 · Mike Leach
19–17 · 36 attributed games · 3 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2020-01-09. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2018–2019 · Joe Moorhead
14–12 · 26 attributed games · 2 seasons
Hired 2017-11-28. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2017–2017 · Greg Knox
1–0 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2017-11-26. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2009–2017 · Dan Mullen
69–46 · 115 attributed games · 9 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2008-12-11. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2004–2008 · Sylvester Croom
21–38 · 59 attributed games · 5 seasons
Hired 2003-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1991–2003 · Jackie Sherrill
74–76–2 · 152 attributed games · 13 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1986–1990 · Rockey Felker
21–34 · 55 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1979–1985 · Emory Bellard
37–42 · 79 attributed games · 7 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1973–1978 · Bob Tyler
39–25–3 · 67 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1967–1972 · Charles Shira
16–45–2 · 63 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1962–1966 · Paul Davis
20–28–2 · 50 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1956–1961 · Wade Walker
22–32–2 · 56 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1954–1955 · Darrell Royal
12–8 · 20 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1952–1953 · Murray Warmath
10–6–3 · 19 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1949–1951 · Slick Morton
8–18–1 · 27 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1944–1948 · Allyn McKeen
31–14–1 · 46 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1939–1942 · Allyn McKeen
34–5–2 · 41 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1938–1938 · Spike Nelson
4–6 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1935–1937 · Ralph Sasse
20–10–2 · 32 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1933–1934 · Ross McKechnie
7–12–1 · 20 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1931–1932 · Ray Dauber
5–11 · 16 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1930–1930 · Red Cagle
2–7 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1927–1929 · J.W. Hancock
8–12–4 · 24 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1925–1926 · Bernie Bierman
8–8–1 · 17 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1923–1924 · Earl Able
10–6–2 · 18 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1922–1922 · Charles Noble
3–4–2 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1920–1921 · Fred Holtkamp
9–7–1 · 17 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1917–1919 · Sid Robinson
15–5 · 20 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1914–1916 · E.C. Hayes
15–8–2 · 25 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1909–1913 · William Chadwick
29–12–2 · 43 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1907–1908 · Fred Furman
9–7 · 16 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1906–1906 · Dan Martin
2–2–1 · 5 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1904–1904 · Dan Martin
2–5 · 7 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1902–1902 · L. Gwinn
1–4–1 · 6 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Jeff Lebby · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	7.3	8.5	23	—
2025 · Jeff Lebby	5–8	1–7	0–1	4.1	2.3	28	—
2024 · Jeff Lebby	2–10	0–8	0–0	-4.1	-1.6	28	—
2023 · Greg Knox · incomplete attribution	1–1	—	—	0.5	-1.7	27	—
2023 · Zach Arnett · incomplete attribution	4–6	—	—	0.5	-1.7	27	—
2022 · Mike Leach · incomplete attribution	8–4	—	—	15.4	13.1	27	20
2022 · Zach Arnett · incomplete attribution	1–0	—	—	15.4	13.1	27	20
2021 · Mike Leach	7–6	4–4	0–1	10.5	8.9	25	—
2020 · Mike Leach	4–7	3–7	1–0	-1.4	1.6	27	—
2019 · Joe Moorhead	6–7	3–5	0–1	3.5	5	24	—
2018 · Joe Moorhead	8–5	4–4	0–1	23.2	19.8	27	—
2017 · Greg Knox · incomplete attribution	1–0	—	—	16	14.1	24	19
2017 · Dan Mullen · incomplete attribution	8–4	—	—	16	14.1	24	19
2016 · Dan Mullen	6–7	3–5	1–0	5.4	3.5	28	—
2015 · Dan Mullen	9–4	4–4	1–0	15.1	15.5	18	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:14:23 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	61 / 138	56.2	95 / 138	31.4
Success rate	44 / 138	68.6	104 / 138	24.8
Explosiveness	65 / 138	53.3	21 / 138	85.4
Standard-down success	38 / 138	73.0	105 / 138	24.1
Passing-down success	T45 / 138	67.5	68 / 138	51.1
Pass PPA	60 / 138	56.9	103 / 138	25.5
Rush PPA	49 / 138	65.0	44 / 138	68.6
Pass explosiveness	62 / 138	55.5	51 / 138	63.5
Rush explosiveness	75 / 138	46.0	5 / 138	97.1
Line yards	56 / 138	59.9	92 / 138	33.6
Second-level yards	35 / 138	75.2	17 / 138	88.3
Open-field yards	39 / 138	72.3	22 / 138	84.7
Stuff rate	116 / 138	16.1	123 / 138	10.9
Power success	74 / 138	46.7	T94 / 138	31.0
Havoc	82 / 138	40.9	T73 / 138	46.7
Front-seven havoc	T79 / 138	41.6	T95 / 138	31.0
DB havoc	T93 / 138	32.5	T42 / 138	69.0
Points / opportunity	72 / 138	48.2	97 / 138	29.9
Average field position	T73 / 138	46.7	T86 / 138	36.1
Field-position expected points	76 / 138	45.3	83 / 138	40.1

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Kamario Taylor · QBUsage 47.9% · Avg PPA 0.327 · Total 66.308

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.327	66.308	47.9%
Pass	0.351	59.653	80.6%
Rush	0.351	11.238	15.6%
1st down	0.120	11.195	47.0%
2nd down	0.405	21.855	39.4%
3rd down	0.503	24.653	65.3%
Standard downs	0.229	30.182	44.6%
Passing downs	0.509	36.126	55.5%

Parker Puckett · QBUsage 29.3% · Avg PPA -0.127 · Total -10.547

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.127	-10.547	29.3%
Pass	-0.134	-8.985	45.6%
Rush	0.059	0.882	11.4%
1st down	-0.053	-1.547	23.4%
2nd down	0.058	1.343	25.3%
3rd down	0.506	11.142	40.7%
Standard downs	-0.006	-0.323	28.1%
Passing downs	-0.365	-10.224	32.2%

Fluff Bothwell · RBUsage 24.3% · Avg PPA 0.360 · Total 37.094

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.360	37.094	24.3%
Pass	1.005	13.062	6.2%
Rush	0.267	24.032	43.9%
1st down	0.071	3.615	25.8%
2nd down	0.543	22.266	29.9%
3rd down	1.019	11.213	14.7%
Standard downs	0.190	14.069	25.0%
Passing downs	0.794	23.025	22.7%

Anthony Evans III · WRUsage 14.0% · Avg PPA 0.568 · Total 39.172

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.568	39.172	14.0%
Pass	0.595	39.881	28.0%
Rush	-0.354	-0.709	0.8%
1st down	0.213	8.094	17.0%
2nd down	0.695	11.814	10.6%
3rd down	1.394	16.734	13.3%
Standard downs	0.210	10.939	15.0%
Passing downs	1.661	28.233	11.6%

Kolin Wilson · RBUsage 13.2% · Avg PPA 0.062 · Total 4.014

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.062	4.014	13.2%
Pass	0.432	5.180	5.0%
Rush	-0.022	-1.166	21.7%
1st down	-0.167	-5.020	13.5%
2nd down	0.051	1.220	14.9%
3rd down	0.710	7.814	12.2%
Standard downs	-0.037	-1.815	14.2%
Passing downs	0.364	5.829	10.9%

Xavier Gayten · RBUsage 8.3% · Avg PPA 0.009 · Total 0.219

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.009	0.219	8.3%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.009	0.219	16.1%
1st down	-0.172	-2.061	9.1%
2nd down	0.117	0.939	8.6%
3rd down	-0.022	-0.066	5.7%
Standard downs	0.068	1.301	9.0%
Passing downs	-0.217	-1.083	6.5%

J.J. Hill · RBUsage 6.8% · Avg PPA 0.559 · Total 8.380

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.559	8.380	6.8%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.559	8.380	14.6%
1st down	0.617	4.321	7.2%
2nd down	0.445	3.112	10.0%
3rd down	0.947	0.947	2.3%
Standard downs	0.606	7.882	8.4%
Passing downs	0.249	0.498	3.1%

Sanfrisco Magee · WRUsage 6.7% · Avg PPA 0.428 · Total 14.117

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.428	14.117	6.7%
Pass	0.539	17.246	13.4%
Rush	-3.129	-3.129	0.4%
1st down	0.882	7.942	4.0%
2nd down	0.630	9.448	9.3%
3rd down	0.223	1.336	6.7%
Standard downs	0.686	14.412	6.1%
Passing downs	-0.025	-0.296	8.2%

Marquis Johnson · WRUsage 6.3% · Avg PPA 0.364 · Total 11.290

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.364	11.290	6.3%
Pass	0.364	11.290	13.0%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.064	0.826	5.8%
2nd down	0.780	9.361	7.5%
3rd down	-0.141	-0.566	4.4%
Standard downs	-0.206	-3.715	5.2%
Passing downs	1.154	15.006	8.8%

Zion Ragins · WRUsage 6.3% · Avg PPA 0.055 · Total 1.710

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.055	1.710	6.3%
Pass	0.055	1.710	13.0%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.365	6.927	8.5%
2nd down	0.140	0.980	4.3%
3rd down	-0.819	-1.639	2.2%
Standard downs	0.363	9.077	7.2%
Passing downs	-1.228	-7.367	4.1%

Cooper Crosby · RBUsage 3.8% · Avg PPA -0.246 · Total -0.739

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.246	-0.739	3.8%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.246	-0.739	8.1%
1st down	0.374	0.748	4.8%
2nd down	-1.487	-1.487	4.0%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.246	-0.739	5.2%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Joeseph Skipworth · TEUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA -0.378 · Total -1.892

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.378	-1.892	3.7%
Pass	-0.378	-1.892	6.5%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.267	-0.535	3.5%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	1.294	2.588	7.1%
Standard downs	0.440	1.321	3.4%
Passing downs	-1.606	-3.213	4.3%

Sam West · TEUsage 3.2% · Avg PPA 0.214 · Total 3.419

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.214	3.419	3.2%
Pass	0.214	3.419	6.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.111	0.555	2.2%
2nd down	0.495	2.477	3.1%
3rd down	0.065	0.388	6.7%
Standard downs	0.430	3.870	2.6%
Passing downs	-0.064	-0.451	4.8%

Zion Crumpton · WRUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA 1.444 · Total 2.889

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.444	2.889	2.5%
Pass	1.444	2.889	4.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	1.444	2.889	4.8%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	1.444	2.889	3.4%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Camden Capehart · WRUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA 1.200 · Total 3.601

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.200	3.601	2.1%
Pass	2.080	2.080	1.3%
Rush	0.761	1.521	3.0%
1st down	0.761	1.521	2.9%
2nd down	2.080	2.080	2.2%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	1.200	3.601	3.0%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Riley Williams · TEUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA 0.175 · Total 0.524

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.175	0.524	2.1%
Pass	0.175	0.524	4.2%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.681	0.681	1.4%
2nd down	-0.898	-0.898	2.2%
3rd down	0.741	0.741	4.5%
Standard downs	-0.109	-0.218	1.9%
Passing downs	0.741	0.741	2.6%

Gracen Harris · WRUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA 0.904 · Total 3.615

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.904	3.615	1.9%
Pass	0.904	3.615	3.5%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	2.607	2.607	1.5%
3rd down	-0.156	-0.313	5.1%
Standard downs	1.964	3.928	1.3%
Passing downs	-0.156	-0.313	3.1%

Matt Mayfield · WRUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 1.384 · Total 1.384

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.384	1.384	1.3%
Pass	1.384	1.384	2.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	1.384	1.384	2.4%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	1.384	1.384	1.7%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Where Mississippi State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Mississippi State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.153	56th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.460	69th138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.244	53rd138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.232	57th138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	0.146	65th138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.129	31st138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.432	25th138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.130	85th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.155	47th138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 100% of 225 attempts charted. Average depth of target 9.2 yards (70th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.8 per completion. Completion 65.3%, 8.2 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.29.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	65.2%	60.8%	+4.4	224 / 225
Defense allowed	66.8%	62.7%	+4.2	244 / 247

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Mississippi State.

Target mix by zone, Mississippi State offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Mississippi State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	225	100%	9.2	5.8	65.3%	0.29	+4.4 pp	224
Passing defense	247	99%	7.8	5.5	67.2%	0.32	+4.2 pp	244

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	262	4.8	48.7%	0.21	3.30	1.20	1.40	17.6%	71.9%
Defense allowed	237	3.7	43.1%	0.05	3.10	0.80	0.60	12.0%	75.0%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	257 / 262	253	9	20	4	4	0	237 / 238 · 99.6%
Defense allowed	233 / 237	227	10	15	5	6	0	216 / 216 · 100.0%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +4.4 pp. 7 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	UL Monroe	42	41	63.4%	59.3%	+4.1 pp	9.9	0.62	37	9.9	0.71
W2	Minnesota	22	22	72.7%	62.6%	+10.1 pp	9.2	0.61	46	5.5	0.38
W3	South Carolina	27	27	70.4%	59.9%	+10.5 pp	9.1	0.72	34	4.0	0.22
W4	Missouri	38	38	71.1%	62.6%	+8.5 pp	8.1	0.43	40	3.5	0.14
W5	Alabama	40	40	55.0%	58.9%	-3.9 pp	9.5	0.11	30	0.6	-0.14
W7	LSU	26	26	61.5%	63.2%	-1.7 pp	6.3	-0.42	42	4.1	0.03
W8	Oklahoma	30	30	66.7%	60.5%	+6.2 pp	11.7	-0.08	33	5.0	-0.03

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

22 punts · 40.4 gross yards/punt · 39.7 net yards/punt

7 inside the 20 · 2 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 22/22 punts. Known net yards: 20/22 punts.

Our punt returns

1 returns · 9.0 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 1/1 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 8 · Oklahoma	4	34.8	42.7	3/4
Week 7 · LSU	2	32.0	28.0	1/2
Week 5 · Alabama	5	41.4	41.8	5/5
Week 4 · Missouri	5	46.4	38.4	5/5
Week 3 · South Carolina	3	38.0	38.0	3/3

Team style

Rating history