Middle Tennessee

2026 season

Conference USA

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Middle Tennessee's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 116 across 8 systems; best 92, worst 126, so they disagree by 34 places.

Lab EPA: #99; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #114; up 102026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #125; up 42026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #124; up 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #126; up 42026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #92; up 17 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #118; up 112026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #100; up 172026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #96 of 138
Schedule strength: #123 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #105 of 138
Game control: #109 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #121 of 138
Offense: #102 of 138
Defense: #122 of 138
Special teams: #111 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Middle Tennessee · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

-0.071 net EPA/play

#99

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

-8.22 points

#114 · Up 10 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -1.46 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -6.99, schedule #116 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -4.41. That is worth -8.45 on its own; the preseason prior of -7.52 still carries 25% of the weight, giving -8.22.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Middle Tennessee · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · Murray State home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401867866	+24.00 → +24.00	-2.50	0.7637	9.44%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	2.029	-2.359	-0.330
Week 2 · Marshall away · 2026-09-12 · ID 401871045	-2.00 → -2.00	+2.50	0.7937	9.81%	-10.24	0.049	-1.005	-0.956
Week 3 · Nevada home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401864443	+7.00 → +7.00	-2.50	0.8249	10.19%	-4.87	0.459	-0.496	-0.037
Week 4 · Jacksonville State away · 2026-09-26 · ID 401871048	-10.00 → -10.00	+2.50	0.8572	10.59%	-2.80	-0.794	-0.296	-1.091
Week 5 · Kansas away · 2026-10-03 · ID 401856807	-55.00 → -35.00	+2.50	0.8909	11.01%	+1.01	-3.578	0.112	-3.466
Week 7 · Delaware home · 2026-10-13 · ID 401871067	+3.00 → +3.00	-2.50	0.9622	11.89%	-5.85	0.059	-0.695	-0.636
Week 8 · Florida International away · 2026-10-20 · ID 401871055	+3.00 → +3.00	+2.50	1.0000	12.36%	-4.22	0.680	-0.521	0.158

Game terms -6.36 points; prior term -1.86 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -8.22 points. The preseason prior is -7.52 with 24.71% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

-15.2 SP+ points

#125 · Up 4 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

-6.66 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#92 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -0.24 on 348 plays; defense 6.42 on 365 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Middle Tennessee 15 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 4-4 · conf 2-2 · home 3-1 · away 1-3 · expected wins 3.8
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 5-3 ATS (-1.5 avg) · 2025: 6-6 ATS (-3.8 avg)
Head coach: Derek Mason · hired 2023-12-06 · 6-18 over 3 captured seasons
Recruiting classes: 2024 #119 (132 pts) · 2025 #98 (151 pts) · 2026 #119 (165 pts)
Returning: 33% of production · 29% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 39% 29%
Receiving 26% 33%
Rushing 60% 21%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	39%	29%
Receiving	26%	33%
Rushing	60%	21%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	6	3.00	0.8452	5.07
Defensive Line	13	3.00	0.8309	10.80
Linebacker	4	3.00	0.8298	3.32
Offensive Line	11	3.00	0.8283	9.11
Quarterback	3	3.00	0.8468	2.54
Receiver	10	3.00	0.8378	8.38
Running Back	4	3.00	0.8536	3.41
Special Teams	5	2.80	0.8201	4.10

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Roman Gagliano · QB CFBD athlete 5194626. Middle Tennessee (2024–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.271	204	59.7%	Pass 99.3% · Rush 16.3% 1st 53.4% · 2nd 59.9% · 3rd 74.5% Standard downs 51.6% · Passing downs 75.9%	2024: 3★ · 0.8500
Terrence Brown Jr. · RB CFBD athlete 5306988. Saginaw Valley State (2025–2025); Middle Tennessee (2026–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.204	39	20.4%	Pass 15.8% · Rush 27.4% 1st 20.5% · 2nd 20.7% · 3rd 21.8% Standard downs 19.0% · Passing downs 23.1%	Not linked
Dominic Bourgeois · PK CFBD athlete 5383060. Middle Tennessee (2026–2026)	Kicker PAAR	8.970	11	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
AJ Jones · WR CFBD athlete 5086628. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.9%	Pass 7.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.6% · 2nd 5.6% · 3rd 3.9% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 4.1%	Not linked
Antonio Martin · RB CFBD athlete 4685436. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.1%	Pass 5.3% · Rush 0.8% 1st 2.6% · 2nd 6.1% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.8% · Passing downs 3.9%	Not linked
Brody Benke · TE CFBD athlete 5194615. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.5%	Pass 3.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.0% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Brooklen Davis · RB CFBD athlete 5210055. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.3%	Pass 3.5% · Rush 9.6% 1st 4.3% · 2nd 5.9% · 3rd 11.5% Standard downs 4.3% · Passing downs 9.3%	Not linked
Cam'Ron Lacy · WR CFBD athlete 5091830. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	14.1%	Pass 25.2% · Rush 1.8% 1st 10.8% · 2nd 12.3% · 3rd 23.5% Standard downs 12.6% · Passing downs 17.1%	Not linked
DJ Taylor · RB CFBD athlete 5296412. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.8%	Pass 1.9% · Rush 8.8% 1st 5.9% · 2nd 3.3% · 3rd 5.6% Standard downs 4.7% · Passing downs 4.9%	Not linked
Evan Poticher · TE CFBD athlete 5220390. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.1%	Pass 2.2% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.7% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Hogan Wasson · WR CFBD athlete 5084468. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.9%	Pass 7.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.0% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 6.9% Standard downs 3.2% · Passing downs 5.3%	Not linked
Koraun Perdue · TE CFBD athlete 5383058. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.5%	Pass 8.2% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.0% · 2nd 5.0% · 3rd 2.2% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 5.8%	Not linked
Markus Allen · WR CFBD athlete 4603185. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.3%	Pass 7.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.7% · 2nd 6.4% · 3rd 3.0% Standard downs 3.4% · Passing downs 5.8%	Not linked
Neo Clifton · WR CFBD athlete 5217200. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.7%	Pass 12.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 8.2% · 2nd 8.0% · 3rd 2.0% Standard downs 6.5% · Passing downs 7.1%	Not linked
Peter Costelli · QB CFBD athlete 4565180. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.2%	Pass 2.8% · Rush 4.2% 1st 3.0% · 2nd 5.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 4.8%	Not linked
Santana Fleming · WR CFBD athlete 4870691. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.5%	Pass 2.3% · Rush 0.8% 1st 1.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 1.7% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 1.1%	Not linked
Tayvion Galloway · TE CFBD athlete 5079435. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.2%	Pass 6.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.4% · 2nd 2.6% · 3rd 4.8% Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 7.9%	Not linked
Ziyon Butler · WR CFBD athlete 5291778. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.9%	Pass 9.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 7.5% · 2nd 0.8% · 3rd 6.2% Standard downs 6.2% · Passing downs 2.3%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 20 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Adrian Crespin · IOL	Virginia Union	2026-01-09	— / —	Immediate
Antonio Martin Jr. · RB	Kansas State	2026-01-21	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Ashton Taylor · LB	Jackson State	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Brennan Smith · IOL	Mississippi State	2026-04-29	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Chris Moreno · IOL	Monmouth	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Dominic Bourgeois · K	Susquehanna	2026-01-17	— / —	Immediate
Dyson McCutcheon · S	Washington	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Hogan Wasson · WR	Central Missouri	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
James Johnson · CB	USC	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jason Hardy · CB	Grand Valley State	2026-01-08	2★ / —	Immediate
Justin Bodford · DL	Missouri	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Kaven Call · EDGE	East Tennessee State	2026-01-09	3★ / —	Immediate
La'Garrius Sims · EDGE	East Central	2026-01-21	— / —	Immediate
Markus Allen · WR	Mississippi State	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Reese Tripp · IOL	Minnesota	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Ricky Lee III · CB	Sacramento State	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Terrance Brown Jr. · RB	Saginaw Valley State	2026-01-10	2★ / —	Immediate
Trashun Griffin · EDGE	Troy	2026-01-10	3★ / —	Immediate
Trevaris Edwards · IOL	West Florida	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Victory Vaka · DL	Western Kentucky	2026-08-20	— / —	Immediate

Outgoing · 18 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Alex Mitchell · LB	App State	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Amorion Walker · WR	UNLV	2026-01-14	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Anthony Bynum · EDGE	Georgia Southern	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
E.J. Harris · IOL	Not reported	2025-12-04	3★ / —	Immediate
Elijah Hunter Jr. · CB	Not reported	2025-12-07	3★ / —	Immediate
Ethan Crite · WR	Merrimack	2026-01-21	3★ / —	Immediate
Hunter Tipton · TE	Memphis	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Ja'Darious Morris · DL	West Georgia	2026-01-29	— / —	Immediate
Jared Douglas · S	Cal Poly	2026-02-04	— / —	Immediate
Jekail Middlebrook · RB	Virginia	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
John Howse IV · S	Arkansas	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Juwon Gaston · S	Not reported	2026-01-13	3★ / —	Immediate
Kaden Martin · QB	LSU	2026-05-06	— / —	Immediate
Mateo Guevara · IOL	Kennesaw State	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Muaaz Byard · LB	UAB	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Nahzae Cox · WR	Kansas	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Rickey Hunt Jr. · RB	Not reported	2025-12-24	3★ / —	Immediate
Shakai Woods · DL	Arkansas State	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Middle Tennessee. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Derek Mason · career 33–73 across 10 seasons and 2 schools

Tenure timeline · 3 appointments

2024–present · Derek Mason · active at capture
6–18 · 24 attributed games · 3 seasons
Hired 2023-12-06. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2006–2023 · Rick Stockstill
113–111 · 224 attributed games · 18 seasons
Hired 2005-12-12. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1999–2005 · Andy McCollum
34–45 · 79 attributed games · 7 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Derek Mason · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	-17.3	-13.6	119	—
2025 · Derek Mason	3–9	2–6	0–0	-16	-18.4	98	—
2024 · Derek Mason	3–9	2–6	0–0	-24.4	-23.2	119	—
2023 · Rick Stockstill	4–8	3–5	0–0	-9.5	-8.1	120	—
2022 · Rick Stockstill	8–5	4–4	1–0	-6.9	-7.7	120	—
2021 · Rick Stockstill	7–6	4–4	1–0	-4	-8.2	123	—
2020 · Rick Stockstill	3–6	2–3	0–0	-11.7	-13.6	90	—
2019 · Rick Stockstill	4–8	3–5	0–0	-11.3	-7.6	85	—
2018 · Rick Stockstill	8–6	7–2	0–1	-3.8	-0.9	104	—
2017 · Rick Stockstill	7–6	4–4	1–0	-4.9	-8.8	91	—
2016 · Rick Stockstill	8–5	5–3	0–1	-1.9	-9.4	96	—
2015 · Rick Stockstill	7–6	6–2	0–1	-4.6	-3.6	86	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:17:20 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	69 / 138	50.4	119 / 138	13.9
Success rate	103 / 138	25.5	132 / 138	4.4
Explosiveness	54 / 138	61.3	34 / 138	75.9
Standard-down success	103 / 138	25.5	134 / 138	2.9
Passing-down success	92 / 138	33.6	113 / 138	18.2
Pass PPA	81 / 138	41.6	87 / 138	37.2
Rush PPA	85 / 138	38.7	129 / 138	6.6
Pass explosiveness	90 / 138	35.0	22 / 138	84.7
Rush explosiveness	38 / 138	73.0	99 / 138	28.5
Line yards	46 / 138	67.2	138 / 138	0.0
Second-level yards	5 / 138	97.1	135 / 138	2.2
Open-field yards	61 / 138	56.2	87 / 138	37.2
Stuff rate	93 / 138	32.8	129 / 138	6.6
Power success	T133 / 138	2.9	T55 / 138	60.2
Havoc	T63 / 138	54.0	136 / 138	1.5
Front-seven havoc	T31 / 138	77.7	138 / 138	0.0
DB havoc	T104 / 138	24.5	T114 / 138	16.4
Points / opportunity	90 / 138	35.0	89 / 138	35.8
Average field position	99 / 138	28.5	T42 / 138	69.3
Field-position expected points	86 / 138	38.0	T41 / 138	70.1

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Roman Gagliano · QBUsage 58.7% · Avg PPA 0.225 · Total 55.328

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.225	55.328	58.7%
Pass	0.216	48.136	99.1%
Rush	0.313	7.192	12.6%
1st down	0.118	11.903	52.1%
2nd down	0.449	35.502	59.8%
3rd down	0.124	7.412	75.0%
Standard downs	0.205	29.572	50.9%
Passing downs	0.253	25.757	75.0%

Terrence Brown Jr. · RBUsage 19.4% · Avg PPA 0.140 · Total 9.541

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.140	9.541	19.4%
Pass	0.037	1.012	13.8%
Rush	0.208	8.529	28.1%
1st down	0.023	0.752	19.8%
2nd down	0.441	9.696	20.0%
3rd down	-0.070	-0.908	20.0%
Standard downs	0.065	2.779	18.1%
Passing downs	0.270	6.762	22.1%

Cam'Ron Lacy · WRUsage 15.3% · Avg PPA 0.462 · Total 29.568

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.462	29.568	15.3%
Pass	0.518	31.586	27.1%
Rush	-0.673	-2.018	1.6%
1st down	-0.075	-1.660	11.3%
2nd down	0.402	7.631	14.4%
3rd down	0.910	18.209	25.0%
Standard downs	0.191	7.257	13.4%
Passing downs	0.858	22.311	19.1%

Neo Clifton · WRUsage 6.7% · Avg PPA 0.584 · Total 16.350

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.584	16.350	6.7%
Pass	0.584	16.350	12.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.409	6.538	8.2%
2nd down	0.918	10.102	8.3%
3rd down	-0.291	-0.291	1.3%
Standard downs	0.449	7.639	6.0%
Passing downs	0.792	8.711	8.1%

Brooklen Davis · RBUsage 6.3% · Avg PPA -0.166 · Total -1.159

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.166	-1.159	6.3%
Pass	-0.664	-1.329	3.5%
Rush	0.034	0.169	9.6%
1st down	-0.309	-0.617	4.3%
2nd down	-0.318	-0.636	5.9%
3rd down	0.031	0.094	11.5%
Standard downs	-0.483	-1.449	4.3%
Passing downs	0.073	0.290	9.3%

Ziyon Butler · WRUsage 5.0% · Avg PPA 0.149 · Total 2.241

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.149	2.241	5.0%
Pass	0.149	2.241	9.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.384	4.221	8.1%
2nd down	-0.394	-0.394	1.1%
3rd down	-0.529	-1.586	5.1%
Standard downs	0.150	2.094	7.0%
Passing downs	0.147	0.147	1.0%

DJ Taylor · RBUsage 4.8% · Avg PPA -0.093 · Total -0.841

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.093	-0.841	4.8%
Pass	0.363	0.727	1.9%
Rush	-0.224	-1.568	8.8%
1st down	-0.114	-0.572	5.9%
2nd down	-0.498	-0.996	3.3%
3rd down	0.363	0.727	5.6%
Standard downs	-0.211	-1.266	4.7%
Passing downs	0.142	0.425	4.9%

Koraun Perdue · TEUsage 4.5% · Avg PPA 0.245 · Total 3.921

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.245	3.921	4.5%
Pass	0.245	3.921	8.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.498	3.986	4.9%
2nd down	0.643	3.855	5.5%
3rd down	-0.163	-0.163	1.5%
Standard downs	0.311	2.802	3.9%
Passing downs	0.160	1.119	5.8%

AJ Jones · WRUsage 4.3% · Avg PPA 0.234 · Total 4.205

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.234	4.205	4.3%
Pass	0.234	4.205	8.0%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.473	2.367	2.6%
2nd down	0.085	0.683	6.1%
3rd down	-0.417	-1.667	5.0%
Standard downs	0.335	4.018	4.2%
Passing downs	0.031	0.187	4.4%

Markus Allen · WRUsage 4.3% · Avg PPA 0.657 · Total 9.855

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.657	9.855	4.3%
Pass	0.657	9.855	7.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.810	4.861	3.7%
2nd down	0.862	6.033	6.4%
3rd down	-0.520	-1.039	3.0%
Standard downs	0.957	7.657	3.4%
Passing downs	0.314	2.198	5.8%

Tayvion Galloway · TEUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA -0.770 · Total -3.849

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.770	-3.849	4.2%
Pass	-0.770	-3.849	6.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.113	0.225	3.4%
2nd down	0.175	0.175	2.6%
3rd down	-0.307	-0.307	4.8%
Standard downs	0.113	0.225	2.4%
Passing downs	-1.358	-4.074	7.9%

Hogan Wasson · WRUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.149 · Total -2.235

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.149	-2.235	3.6%
Pass	-0.149	-2.235	6.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.294	-1.765	3.1%
2nd down	-0.053	-0.159	2.3%
3rd down	-0.052	-0.311	7.5%
Standard downs	-0.035	-0.354	3.5%
Passing downs	-0.376	-1.881	3.7%

Peter Costelli · QBUsage 3.2% · Avg PPA -0.620 · Total -1.240

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.620	-1.240	3.2%
Pass	-0.284	-0.284	2.8%
Rush	-0.956	-0.956	4.2%
1st down	-0.956	-0.956	3.0%
2nd down	-0.284	-0.284	5.0%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.956	-0.956	2.4%
Passing downs	-0.284	-0.284	4.8%

Antonio Martin · RBUsage 3.1% · Avg PPA -0.186 · Total -1.491

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.186	-1.491	3.1%
Pass	-0.422	-2.955	5.3%
Rush	1.464	1.464	0.8%
1st down	0.754	2.261	2.6%
2nd down	-0.750	-3.752	6.1%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	0.071	0.355	2.8%
Passing downs	-0.615	-1.846	3.9%

Santana Fleming · WRUsage 1.8% · Avg PPA -0.288 · Total -0.865

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.288	-0.865	1.8%
Pass	-0.629	-1.258	2.3%
Rush	0.394	0.394	1.3%
1st down	-0.366	-0.731	2.7%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.133	-0.133	2.7%
Standard downs	-0.366	-0.731	1.8%
Passing downs	-0.133	-0.133	1.6%

Brody Benke · TEUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA 3.101 · Total 3.101

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	3.101	3.101	1.5%
Pass	3.101	3.101	3.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	3.101	3.101	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	3.101	3.101	2.0%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Where Middle Tennessee sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Middle Tennessee metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.139	50th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.403	25th138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.257	61st138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.198	42nd138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	0.073	39th138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.191	14th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.481	4th138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.162	76th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.102	1st138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 99% of 262 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.0 yards (25th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.5 per completion. Completion 56.9%, 6.1 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.15.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	53.2%	61.7%	-8.5	156 / 262
Defense allowed	62.2%	61.6%	+0.6	127 / 206

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Middle Tennessee.

Target mix by zone, Middle Tennessee offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Middle Tennessee passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	262	99%	8.0	5.5	56.9%	0.15	-8.5 pp	156
Passing defense	206	100%	8.1	6.5	63.6%	0.23	+0.6 pp	127

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	236	4.8	44.3%	0.13	3.20	1.30	1.10	14.9%	64.3%
Defense allowed	283	5.3	52.8%	0.26	3.70	1.40	1.20	11.7%	68.9%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	226 / 236	115	121	8	7	7	0	220 / 221 · 99.5%
Defense allowed	277 / 283	260	23	10	7	8	0	263 / 265 · 99.2%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -8.5 pp. 5 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	Murray State	26	0	—	—	—	6.8	0.32	22	8.6	0.52
W2	Marshall	47	47	53.2%	60.8%	-7.6 pp	8.6	0.25	22	4.8	0.04
W3	Nevada	29	28	53.6%	61.3%	-7.8 pp	8.3	0.30	38	4.1	0.23
W4	Jacksonville State	28	28	64.3%	64.1%	+0.2 pp	7.2	0.39	29	3.4	0.01
W5	Kansas	26	26	34.6%	61.8%	-27.2 pp	9.2	-0.31	16	3.4	-0.61
W7	Delaware	35	0	—	—	—	7.3	0.38	25	4.2	0.21
W8	Florida International	27	27	59.3%	61.3%	-2.0 pp	8.1	0.38	39	6.3	0.12
W9	Kennesaw State	44	0	—	—	—	8.0	-0.39	45	4.4	0.15

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

38 punts · 48.9 gross yards/punt · 36.9 net yards/punt

9 inside the 20 · 6 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 38/38 punts. Known net yards: 31/38 punts.

Our punt returns

9 returns · 6.4 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 9/9 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 9 · Kennesaw State	5	47.2	26.0	3/5
Week 8 · Florida International	4	41.8	33.7	3/4
Week 7 · Delaware	5	53.2	50.5	4/5
Week 5 · Kansas	9	51.8	35.1	7/9
Week 4 · Jacksonville State	5	49.2	34.5	4/5

Team style

Rating history