Record
2-6 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook recordMichigan State
2026 season
Big Ten
2026 preseason report
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
What every system says
Michigan State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 76 across 8 systems; best 60, worst 98, so they disagree by 38 places.
- Lab EPA
- #98
- Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- Lab SRS
- #72
- up 12026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- SP+
- #88
- down 92026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
- Elo
- #80
- down 42026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- FPI
- #64
- down 32026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CORE
- #63
- no change · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CFBD SRS
- #60
- no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- WEPA
- #98
- up 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI context
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Résumé and schedule
Results earned and schedule difficulty
- Strength of record
- #94 of 138
- Schedule strength
- #12 of 138
- Remaining schedule strength
- #53 of 138
- Game control
- #77 of 138
Unit efficiency
Performance by unit
- Overall
- #70 of 138
- Offense
- #93 of 138
- Defense
- #59 of 138
- Special teams
- #18 of 138
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
Why the ratings disagree
Michigan State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
Descriptive EPA
-0.070 net EPA/play
#98
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD playsLocal predictive SRS
0.05 points
#72 · Up 1 place since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -7.17 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +7.60, schedule #3 of 138 (#1 = toughest). That is worth +0.43 on its own; the preseason prior of -1.28 still carries 22% of the weight, giving +0.05.
How each game enters this SRS rating
Michigan State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Toledo home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401858429 | +10.00 → +10.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 8.47% | +1.38 | 0.635 | 0.117 | 0.752 |
| Week 2 · Eastern Michigan home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401858440 | +28.00 → +28.00 | -2.50 | 0.7937 | 8.80% | -9.30 | 2.244 | -0.818 | 1.426 |
| Week 3 · Notre Dame away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858453 | -17.00 → -17.00 | +2.50 | 0.8249 | 9.15% | +19.89 | -1.326 | 1.820 | 0.493 |
| Week 4 · Nebraska home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401858464 | -18.00 → -18.00 | -2.50 | 0.8572 | 9.51% | +10.82 | -1.949 | 1.028 | -0.920 |
| Week 5 · Wisconsin away · 2026-10-03 · ID 401858479 | -28.00 → -28.00 | +2.50 | 0.8909 | 9.88% | +8.97 | -2.519 | 0.886 | -1.633 |
| Week 6 · Illinois home · 2026-10-10 · ID 401858480 | -1.00 → -1.00 (OT) | -2.50 | 0.9259 | 10.27% | +3.72 | -0.359 | 0.382 | 0.023 |
| Week 7 · Northwestern home · 2026-10-17 · ID 401858491 | -3.00 → -3.00 | -2.50 | 0.9622 | 10.67% | +10.95 | -0.587 | 1.168 | 0.581 |
| Week 8 · UCLA away · 2026-10-24 · ID 401858499 | -18.00 → -18.00 | +2.50 | 1.0000 | 11.09% | +12.00 | -1.719 | 1.330 | -0.388 |
Game terms +0.33 points; prior term -0.28 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +0.05 points. The preseason prior is -1.28 with 22.18% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.8 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scoresExternal SP+
-3.0 SP+ points
#88 · Down 9 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbookExternal CORE
1.35 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#63 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -3.25 on 472 plays; defense -4.59 on 501 plays.
2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks Michigan State 26 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidenceProgram context
2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches- Record
- 2-6 · conf 0-5 · home 2-3 · away 0-3 · expected wins 3.0
- Polls (Week 9)
- unranked
- CFP latest
- not published
- CFP final
- not published
- Against the spread
- 2026: 4-3-1 ATS (-0.6 avg) · 2025: 7-5 ATS (-2.3 avg)
- Head coach
- Pat Fitzgerald · hired 2025-12-01 · 0-0 over 1 captured season
- Recruiting classes
- 2024 #42 (204 pts) · 2025 #57 (196 pts) · 2026 #45 (214 pts)
- Returning
- 21% of production · 30% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage Passing 16% 45% Receiving 24% 18% Rushing 19% 26% Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
Recruiting by position group
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 16 | 3.00 | 0.8689 | 13.90 |
| Defensive Line | 10 | 3.40 | 0.8847 | 8.85 |
| Linebacker | 8 | 3.25 | 0.8717 | 6.97 |
| Offensive Line | 16 | 3.19 | 0.8715 | 13.94 |
| Quarterback | 5 | 3.40 | 0.8805 | 4.40 |
| Receiver | 14 | 3.29 | 0.8769 | 12.28 |
| Running Back | 7 | 2.71 | 0.8346 | 5.84 |
| Special Teams | 10 | 2.80 | 0.8184 | 8.18 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Player efficiency and usage
2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTCPassing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alessio Milivojevic · QBCFBD athlete 5146670. Michigan State (2024–2026) | Passing WEPA | 0.260 | 202 | 49.0% | Pass 93.3% · Rush 11.4%1st 42.1% · 2nd 44.6% · 3rd 66.3% Standard downs 41.3% · Passing downs 71.9% | 2024: 3★ · 0.8731 |
Jaziun Patterson · RBCFBD athlete 5081332. Michigan State (2026–2026); Iowa (2022–2025) | Rushing WEPA | 0.196 | 81 | 20.9% | Pass 4.8% · Rush 35.8%1st 25.9% · 2nd 23.3% · 3rd 9.9% Standard downs 24.4% · Passing downs 10.0% | 2022: 3★ · 0.8748 |
Camryn Edwards · RBCFBD athlete 5086034. UConn (2022–2025); Michigan State (2026–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.157 | 67 | 26.3% | Pass 5.2% · Rush 45.1%1st 28.8% · 2nd 28.7% · 3rd 19.2% Standard downs 32.5% · Passing downs 9.7% | Not linked |
Marvis Parrish · RBCFBD athlete 5258024. Western Kentucky (2025–2025); Michigan State (2026–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.053 | 35 | 8.2% | Pass 3.0% · Rush 13.4%1st 7.8% · 2nd 7.1% · 3rd 10.7% Standard downs 9.5% · Passing downs 4.5% | 2025: 3★ · 0.8356 |
Liam Boyd · PKCFBD athlete 5081440. Michigan State (2026–2026); North Carolina (2023–2024); Clemson (2022–2022); Charlotte (2025–2025) | Kicker PAAR | 6.880 | 13 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Brandon Tullis · RBCFBD athlete 5150125. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.5% | Pass 0.8% · Rush 8.0%1st 3.5% · 2nd 6.6% · 3rd 2.0% Standard downs 4.1% · Passing downs 5.3% | Not linked |
Braylon Collier · WRCFBD athlete 5215135. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.4% | Pass 5.4% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.4% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 4.2% Standard downs 2.0% · Passing downs 3.6% | Not linked |
Brennan Parachek · TECFBD athlete 4894451. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.1% | Pass 4.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.7% · 2nd 2.7% · 3rd 4.5% Standard downs 0.9% · Passing downs 5.2% | Not linked |
Bryson Williams · WRCFBD athlete 5211482. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.5% | Pass 5.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.4% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 4.5% Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 3.7% | Not linked |
Cam Fancher · QBCFBD athlete 4700135. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.4% | Pass 7.9% · Rush 4.3%1st 7.5% · 2nd 6.2% · 3rd 4.3% Standard downs 6.7% · Passing downs 5.4% | Not linked |
Carson Gulker · TECFBD athlete 4911541. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.0% | Pass 1.2% · Rush 5.2%1st 2.8% · 2nd 1.8% · 3rd 6.1% Standard downs 4.0% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Charles Taplin · WRCFBD athlete 5207598. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.2% | Pass 7.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 3.4% · 2nd 2.6% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.1% · Passing downs 3.6% | Not linked |
Chrishon Mccray · WRCFBD athlete 4869599. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 9.2% | Pass 17.3% · Rush 2.3%1st 6.4% · 2nd 7.7% · 3rd 16.5% Standard downs 7.7% · Passing downs 13.4% | Not linked |
Fredrick Moore · WRCFBD athlete 4905609. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.7% | Pass 14.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 6.8% · 2nd 6.0% · 3rd 5.8% Standard downs 6.1% · Passing downs 8.2% | Not linked |
Jayden Savoury · TECFBD athlete 5214448. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.6% | Pass 16.5% · Rush 0.0%1st 7.8% · 2nd 8.3% · 3rd 5.8% Standard downs 7.2% · Passing downs 9.0% | Not linked |
KK Smith · WRCFBD athlete 5150418. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.4% | Pass 3.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.2% · 2nd 1.4% · 3rd 2.0% Standard downs 0.6% · Passing downs 3.8% | Not linked |
Kai Rios · TECFBD athlete 5083652. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.9% | Pass 4.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.9% · 2nd 3.5% · 3rd 2.0% Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 1.4% | Not linked |
Kayd Coffman · QBCFBD athlete 5266583. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 13.3% | Pass 22.2% · Rush 6.0%1st 9.4% · 2nd 17.4% · 3rd 17.2% Standard downs 8.4% · Passing downs 25.0% | Not linked |
Kenneth Williams · RBCFBD athlete 5174993. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.4% | Pass 3.7% · Rush 13.2%1st 10.4% · 2nd 8.6% · 3rd 5.2% Standard downs 7.9% · Passing downs 9.7% | Not linked |
Leo Hannan · QBCFBD athlete 5164308. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 28.6% | Pass 53.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 25.0% · 2nd 25.0% · 3rd 36.4% Standard downs 33.3% · Passing downs 20.0% | Not linked |
Rodney Bullard Jr. · WRCFBD athlete 5260691. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.4% | Pass 15.2% · Rush 0.8%1st 7.3% · 2nd 7.7% · 3rd 6.8% Standard downs 6.6% · Passing downs 9.7% | Not linked |
Samson Gash · WRCFBD athlete 5277125. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.6% | Pass 7.1% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 10.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.8% · Passing downs 5.0% | Not linked |
Zion Gist · RBCFBD athlete 5215030. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.1% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 7.0%1st 3.1% · 2nd 4.3% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 12.5% | Not linked |
Transfers
Incoming · 28 reported
| Player | From | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Weeks · P | Northern Arizona | 2026-01-19 | — / — | Immediate |
| Ben Murawski · OT | UConn | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Caleb Wheatland · LB | Auburn | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Cam Edwards · RB | UConn | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Cam Fancher · QB | UCF | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Cam Stodghill · S | Not reported | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Carlos Hazelwood · DL | Toledo | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Carson Gulker · TE | Ferris State | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Charles Brantley · CB | Miami | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Devin Vaught · S | Maine | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Dion Crawford · LB | Buffalo | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Eli Coenen · DL | Illinois | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Fredrick Moore · WR | Michigan | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Jaziun Patterson · RB | Iowa | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| KK Smith · WR | Notre Dame | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Keahnist Thompson · EDGE | Weber State | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Kenneth Williams · RB | Nebraska | 2026-01-18 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Kenny Soares Jr. · LB | NC State | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Liam Boyd · K | Charlotte | 2026-01-07 | — / — | Immediate |
| Michael Richard · S | Louisiana Tech | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Nick Duzansky · LS | Oregon | 2026-01-18 | — / — | Immediate |
| Nick Sharpe · IOL | South Carolina | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Rhys Dakin · P | Iowa | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Robert Wright Jr. · OT | Georgia Southern | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Tre Bell · CB | Iowa State | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Trent Fraley · IOL | North Dakota State | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Trey Lisle · EDGE | Southeast Missouri State | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Tyran Chappell · CB | Houston Christian | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
Outgoing · 46 reported
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ade Willie · CB | North Carolina | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Aidan Chiles · QB | Northwestern | 2026-01-07 | 4★ / 0.9000 | Immediate |
| Aisea Moa · LB | Michigan | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Alante Brown · WR | Memphis | 2026-01-14 | 4★ / — | Immediate |
| Alex VanSumeren · DL | USC | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8900 | Immediate |
| Armoni Rue · CB | UL Monroe | 2026-01-22 | 2★ / 0.7900 | Immediate |
| Armorion Smith · S | Toledo | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Ashton Lepo · OT | Oklahoma State | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Aydan West · CB | Minnesota | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Chance Rucker · CB | Arizona State | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Charlton Luniewski · IOL | San Diego State | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Chrishon McCray · WR | Not reported | 2026-01-07 | 2★ / — | Withdrawn |
| Cole Dellinger · IOL | Eastern Michigan | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Cooper Terpstra · IOL | UCF | 2026-01-04 | 2★ / — | Immediate |
| Darius Snow · LB | Texas | 2026-04-16 | 3★ / 0.8500 | TBD |
| David Santiago · EDGE | Kansas | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Dyson Sims · ATH | Not reported | 2026-01-08 | 2★ / — | Immediate |
| Elisha West · CB | Minnesota | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Evan Boyd · WR | Iowa State | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Gavin Broscious · IOL | Iowa State | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| George Mullins · S | Delaware | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Jack Wills · LS | Nebraska | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Jalen Thompson · EDGE | Arizona State | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8900 | Immediate |
| Jeremiah Hughes · CB | Hawai'i | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Justin Bell · OT | Virginia Tech | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Justin Denson Jr. · S | Purdue | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Kaden Schickel · LS | Vanderbilt | 2026-01-10 | — / — | Immediate |
| Kristian Phillips · IOL | Boston College | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Makhi Frazier · RB | Ole Miss | 2026-01-19 | 3★ / 0.8800 | Immediate |
| Marcellius Pulliam · LB | Coastal Carolina | 2026-01-18 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Martin Connington · K | Kansas | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Mercer Luniewski · OT | San Diego State | 2026-01-04 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Michael Masunas · TE | Texas | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Nick Marsh · WR | Indiana | 2026-01-04 | 4★ / 0.9400 | Immediate |
| Payton Stewart · OT | Colorado State | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Rashawn Rogers · OT | Ferris State | 2026-01-09 | — / — | Immediate |
| Rodney Bullard Jr. · WR | Not reported | 2026-01-17 | — / — | Immediate |
| Rustin Young · OT | Not reported | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Withdrawn |
| Ryland Jessee · QB | Not reported | 2025-12-31 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Semaj Bridgeman · LB | Not reported | 2025-12-12 | 4★ / — | Immediate |
| Shawn Foster · WR | Central Michigan | 2026-01-11 | 2★ / 0.7900 | Immediate |
| Stanton Ramil · OT | Auburn | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8800 | Immediate |
| Stone Chaney · EDGE | Memphis | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8000 | Immediate |
| Tracy Revels · S | UConn | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Tyler Gillison · EDGE | Ohio | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Wyatt Hook · TE | Akron | 2026-01-19 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Coaching eras
Continuous appointments at Michigan State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Pat Fitzgerald · career 110–101 across 18 seasons and 2 schools
Tenure timeline · 21 appointments
2026–present · Pat Fitzgerald · active at capture
0–0 · 0 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2024–2025 · Jonathan Smith
9–15 · 24 attributed games · 2 seasons
Hired 2023-11-25. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2023–2023 · Harlon Barnett · interim
2–8 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2023-09-10. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2020–2023 · Mel Tucker
20–14 · 34 attributed games · 4 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2020-02-11. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2007–2019 · Mark Dantonio
114–57 · 171 attributed games · 13 seasons
Hired 2006-11-27. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2003–2006 · John Smith
22–26 · 48 attributed games · 4 seasons
Hired 2002-12-19. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2002–2002 · Morris Watts
1–2 · 5 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2002-11-04. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2000–2002 · Bobby Williams
15–17 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 1999-12-06. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1995–1999 · Nick Saban
34–24–1 · 59 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1983–1994 · George Perles
73–62–4 · 139 attributed games · 12 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1980–1982 · Frank Waters
10–23 · 33 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1976–1979 · Darryl Rogers
24–18–2 · 44 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1973–1975 · Dennis Stolz
19–13–1 · 33 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1954–1972 · Duffy Daugherty
109–69–5 · 183 attributed games · 19 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1947–1953 · Biggie Munn
54–9–2 · 65 attributed games · 7 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1944–1946 · Charlie Bachman
16–9–1 · 26 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1933–1942 · Charlie Bachman
54–25–9 · 88 attributed games · 10 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1929–1932 · Jimmy Crowley
22–8–3 · 33 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1928–1928 · Harry Kipke
3–4–1 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1925–1927 · Ralph Young
10–14–1 · 25 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1918–1918 · George Gauthier
4–3 · 7 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
Season résumé · 2015–2026
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Pat Fitzgerald · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | -1.1 | 2.8 | 45 | — |
| 2025 · Jonathan Smith | 4–8 | 1–8 | 0–0 | -3.4 | -0.3 | 57 | — |
| 2024 · Jonathan Smith | 5–7 | 3–6 | 0–0 | -4.6 | -2.8 | 42 | — |
| 2023 · Mel Tucker · incomplete attribution | 2–0 | — | — | -6.8 | -3.2 | 24 | — |
| 2023 · Harlon Barnett · incomplete attribution | 2–8 | — | — | -6.8 | -3.2 | 24 | — |
| 2022 · Mel Tucker | 5–7 | 3–6 | 0–0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 24 | — |
| 2021 · Mel Tucker | 11–2 | 7–2 | 1–0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 43 | 9 |
| 2020 · Mel Tucker | 2–5 | 2–5 | 0–0 | -2.4 | -4.5 | 43 | — |
| 2019 · Mark Dantonio | 7–6 | 4–5 | 1–0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 32 | — |
| 2018 · Mark Dantonio | 7–6 | 5–4 | 0–1 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 31 | — |
| 2017 · Mark Dantonio | 10–3 | 7–2 | 1–0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 36 | 15 |
| 2016 · Mark Dantonio | 3–9 | 1–8 | 0–0 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 17 | — |
| 2015 · Mark Dantonio | 12–2 | 8–1 | 0–1 | 15.6 | 14 | 23 | 6 |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
CFBD season overview
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data
Stat rankings
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:15:23 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 127 / 138 | 8.0 | 113 / 138 | 18.2 |
| Success rate | 81 / 138 | 41.6 | 115 / 138 | 16.8 |
| Explosiveness | 136 / 138 | 1.5 | 42 / 138 | 70.1 |
| Standard-down success | 104 / 138 | 24.8 | T113 / 138 | 17.9 |
| Passing-down success | 64 / 138 | 54.0 | 115 / 138 | 16.8 |
| Pass PPA | 120 / 138 | 13.1 | 98 / 138 | 29.2 |
| Rush PPA | 122 / 138 | 11.7 | 79 / 138 | 43.1 |
| Pass explosiveness | 128 / 138 | 7.3 | 98 / 138 | 29.2 |
| Rush explosiveness | 125 / 138 | 9.5 | 22 / 138 | 84.7 |
| Line yards | 102 / 138 | 26.3 | 91 / 138 | 34.3 |
| Second-level yards | 134 / 138 | 2.9 | 84 / 138 | 39.4 |
| Open-field yards | 135 / 138 | 2.2 | 84 / 138 | 39.4 |
| Stuff rate | 70 / 138 | 49.6 | 48 / 138 | 65.7 |
| Power success | T81 / 138 | 41.2 | 66 / 138 | 52.6 |
| Havoc | 97 / 138 | 29.9 | T110 / 138 | 20.1 |
| Front-seven havoc | T104 / 138 | 24.5 | T105 / 138 | 23.0 |
| DB havoc | T82 / 138 | 38.3 | T84 / 138 | 38.3 |
| Points / opportunity | 109 / 138 | 21.2 | 77 / 138 | 44.5 |
| Average field position | T20 / 138 | 85.4 | 103 / 138 | 25.5 |
| Field-position expected points | T28 / 138 | 79.9 | T89 / 138 | 35.0 |
Player PPA and usage
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
Alessio Milivojevic · QBUsage 49.0% · Avg PPA 0.072 · Total 15.951
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.072 | 15.951 | 49.0% |
| Pass | 0.103 | 20.142 | 93.3% |
| Rush | -0.025 | -0.685 | 11.4% |
| 1st down | -0.149 | -12.238 | 42.1% |
| 2nd down | 0.359 | 23.668 | 44.6% |
| 3rd down | 0.109 | 6.637 | 66.3% |
| Standard downs | -0.062 | -8.714 | 41.3% |
| Passing downs | 0.301 | 24.665 | 71.9% |
Leo Hannan · QBUsage 28.6% · Avg PPA -0.223 · Total -3.567
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.223 | -3.567 | 28.6% |
| Pass | 0.016 | 0.241 | 53.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.978 | -5.870 | 25.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.129 | 0.647 | 25.0% |
| 3rd down | 0.136 | 0.546 | 36.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.066 | -0.793 | 33.3% |
| Passing downs | -0.694 | -2.774 | 20.0% |
Camryn Edwards · RBUsage 26.3% · Avg PPA 0.007 · Total 0.498
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.007 | 0.498 | 26.3% |
| Pass | 0.183 | 1.098 | 5.2% |
| Rush | -0.009 | -0.600 | 45.1% |
| 1st down | 0.067 | 2.284 | 28.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.009 | -0.234 | 28.7% |
| 3rd down | 0.273 | 2.728 | 19.2% |
| Standard downs | 0.011 | 0.704 | 32.5% |
| Passing downs | -0.029 | -0.206 | 9.7% |
Jaziun Patterson · RBUsage 20.9% · Avg PPA 0.140 · Total 11.914
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.140 | 11.914 | 20.9% |
| Pass | 0.315 | 2.835 | 4.8% |
| Rush | 0.119 | 9.079 | 35.8% |
| 1st down | 0.225 | 10.110 | 25.9% |
| 2nd down | 0.083 | 2.584 | 23.3% |
| 3rd down | -0.183 | -1.464 | 9.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.180 | 13.472 | 24.4% |
| Passing downs | -0.156 | -1.558 | 10.0% |
Kayd Coffman · QBUsage 13.3% · Avg PPA -0.562 · Total -10.115
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.562 | -10.115 | 13.3% |
| Pass | -0.610 | -8.538 | 22.2% |
| Rush | -0.394 | -1.576 | 6.0% |
| 1st down | -0.218 | -1.090 | 9.4% |
| 2nd down | -0.773 | -6.188 | 17.4% |
| 3rd down | -0.567 | -2.837 | 17.2% |
| Standard downs | -0.350 | -2.797 | 8.4% |
| Passing downs | -0.732 | -7.317 | 25.0% |
Chrishon Mccray · WRUsage 9.2% · Avg PPA 0.187 · Total 8.792
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.187 | 8.792 | 9.2% |
| Pass | 0.226 | 9.253 | 17.3% |
| Rush | -0.077 | -0.461 | 2.3% |
| 1st down | 0.271 | 3.788 | 6.4% |
| 2nd down | 1.000 | 13.001 | 7.7% |
| 3rd down | -0.158 | -2.693 | 16.5% |
| Standard downs | 0.033 | 0.955 | 7.7% |
| Passing downs | 0.435 | 7.837 | 13.4% |
Kenneth Williams · RBUsage 8.4% · Avg PPA -0.271 · Total -6.498
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.271 | -6.498 | 8.4% |
| Pass | 0.041 | 0.204 | 3.7% |
| Rush | -0.353 | -6.703 | 13.2% |
| 1st down | -0.263 | -3.422 | 10.4% |
| 2nd down | -0.295 | -2.357 | 8.6% |
| 3rd down | -0.240 | -0.720 | 5.2% |
| Standard downs | -0.259 | -4.404 | 7.9% |
| Passing downs | -0.299 | -2.094 | 9.7% |
Marvis Parrish · RBUsage 8.2% · Avg PPA -0.305 · Total -12.791
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.305 | -12.791 | 8.2% |
| Pass | -0.274 | -1.917 | 3.0% |
| Rush | -0.311 | -10.874 | 13.4% |
| 1st down | -0.005 | -0.091 | 7.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.349 | -4.191 | 7.1% |
| 3rd down | -0.022 | -0.239 | 10.7% |
| Standard downs | -0.396 | -14.238 | 9.5% |
| Passing downs | 0.241 | 1.447 | 4.5% |
Jayden Savoury · TEUsage 7.6% · Avg PPA 0.319 · Total 12.447
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.319 | 12.447 | 7.6% |
| Pass | 0.319 | 12.447 | 16.5% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.123 | 2.086 | 7.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.321 | 4.497 | 8.3% |
| 3rd down | 0.404 | 2.422 | 5.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.197 | 5.323 | 7.2% |
| Passing downs | 0.594 | 7.124 | 9.0% |
Rodney Bullard Jr. · WRUsage 7.4% · Avg PPA 0.292 · Total 11.080
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.292 | 11.080 | 7.4% |
| Pass | 0.306 | 11.005 | 15.2% |
| Rush | 0.038 | 0.076 | 0.8% |
| 1st down | -0.031 | -0.495 | 7.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.691 | 8.984 | 7.7% |
| 3rd down | 0.555 | 3.888 | 6.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.038 | 0.938 | 6.6% |
| Passing downs | 0.780 | 10.142 | 9.7% |
Fredrick Moore · WRUsage 6.7% · Avg PPA 0.204 · Total 6.921
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.204 | 6.921 | 6.7% |
| Pass | 0.204 | 6.921 | 14.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.274 | 4.112 | 6.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.134 | -1.343 | 6.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.329 | 7.974 | 5.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.215 | 4.935 | 6.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.181 | 1.986 | 8.2% |
Cam Fancher · QBUsage 6.4% · Avg PPA -0.182 · Total -4.011
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.182 | -4.011 | 6.4% |
| Pass | -0.250 | -2.994 | 7.9% |
| Rush | 0.409 | 3.274 | 4.3% |
| 1st down | 0.148 | 1.628 | 7.5% |
| 2nd down | -0.707 | -4.947 | 6.2% |
| 3rd down | 1.157 | 3.470 | 4.3% |
| Standard downs | -0.071 | -1.211 | 6.7% |
| Passing downs | -0.560 | -2.800 | 5.4% |
Brandon Tullis · RBUsage 4.5% · Avg PPA 0.342 · Total 4.100
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.342 | 4.100 | 4.5% |
| Pass | 0.337 | 0.337 | 0.8% |
| Rush | 0.342 | 3.763 | 8.0% |
| 1st down | -0.241 | -0.965 | 3.5% |
| 2nd down | 0.555 | 3.333 | 6.6% |
| 3rd down | -0.607 | -0.607 | 2.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.045 | 0.360 | 4.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.935 | 3.740 | 5.3% |
Zion Gist · RBUsage 4.1% · Avg PPA -0.605 · Total -1.814
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.605 | -1.814 | 4.1% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | -0.605 | -1.814 | 7.0% |
| 1st down | -1.053 | -1.053 | 3.1% |
| 2nd down | -1.460 | -1.460 | 4.3% |
| 3rd down | 0.698 | 0.698 | 7.1% |
| Standard downs | -1.053 | -1.053 | 1.8% |
| Passing downs | -0.381 | -0.762 | 12.5% |
Samson Gash · WRUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.147 · Total -0.294
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.147 | -0.294 | 3.6% |
| Pass | -0.147 | -0.294 | 7.1% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | -0.147 | -0.294 | 10.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.409 | -0.409 | 2.8% |
| Passing downs | 0.115 | 0.115 | 5.0% |
Charles Taplin · WRUsage 3.2% · Avg PPA 1.576 · Total 6.303
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.576 | 6.303 | 3.2% |
| Pass | 1.576 | 6.303 | 7.1% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 1.014 | 2.029 | 3.4% |
| 2nd down | 1.130 | 1.130 | 2.6% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 1.053 | 3.159 | 3.1% |
| Passing downs | 3.144 | 3.144 | 3.6% |
Carson Gulker · TEUsage 3.0% · Avg PPA 0.064 · Total 0.319
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.064 | 0.319 | 3.0% |
| Pass | 1.006 | 1.006 | 1.2% |
| Rush | -0.172 | -0.687 | 5.2% |
| 1st down | -0.235 | -0.471 | 2.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.045 | -0.045 | 1.8% |
| 3rd down | 0.418 | 0.835 | 6.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.064 | 0.319 | 4.0% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Bryson Williams · WRUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA 0.010 · Total 0.078
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.010 | 0.078 | 2.5% |
| Pass | 0.010 | 0.078 | 5.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.609 | -1.219 | 1.4% |
| 2nd down | 2.905 | 5.810 | 1.9% |
| 3rd down | -0.204 | -0.613 | 4.5% |
| Standard downs | -0.357 | -1.783 | 2.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.620 | 1.861 | 3.7% |
Braylon Collier · WRUsage 2.4% · Avg PPA 0.452 · Total 1.355
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.452 | 1.355 | 2.4% |
| Pass | 0.452 | 1.355 | 5.4% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.772 | 1.544 | 3.4% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.189 | -0.189 | 4.2% |
| Standard downs | 0.772 | 1.544 | 2.0% |
| Passing downs | -0.189 | -0.189 | 3.6% |
Brennan Parachek · TEUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA 0.840 · Total 5.882
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.840 | 5.882 | 2.1% |
| Pass | 0.840 | 5.882 | 4.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.950 | 0.950 | 0.7% |
| 2nd down | -0.524 | -1.573 | 2.7% |
| 3rd down | 2.169 | 6.506 | 4.5% |
| Standard downs | 0.492 | 0.983 | 0.9% |
| Passing downs | 0.980 | 4.899 | 5.2% |
Kai Rios · TEUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA -0.003 · Total -0.017
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.003 | -0.017 | 1.9% |
| Pass | -0.003 | -0.017 | 4.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.098 | 0.098 | 0.9% |
| 2nd down | -0.249 | -0.746 | 3.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.631 | 0.631 | 2.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.216 | 0.864 | 2.1% |
| Passing downs | -0.881 | -0.881 | 1.4% |
KK Smith · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 0.793 · Total 2.378
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.793 | 2.378 | 1.4% |
| Pass | 0.793 | 2.378 | 3.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.508 | -0.508 | 1.2% |
| 2nd down | 1.071 | 1.071 | 1.4% |
| 3rd down | 1.815 | 1.815 | 2.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.508 | -0.508 | 0.6% |
| Passing downs | 1.443 | 2.886 | 3.8% |
2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
Values and percentiles
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | -0.023 | 8th138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.421 | 42nd138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.065 | 1st138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | 0.042 | 13th138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | -0.036 | 12th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | 0.165 | 18th138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.444 | 17th138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.175 | 70th138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.136 | 20th138 teams | higher |
Passing profile
2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPACaptured 2026-10-30. Offense: 99% of 222 attempts charted. Average depth of target 7.6 yards (20th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 4.1 per completion. Completion 64.4%, 6.6 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.12.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 63.9% | 62.7% | +1.2 | 219 / 222 |
| Defense allowed | 61.3% | 62.1% | -0.8 | 212 / 214 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Michigan State.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
Defense and rushing detail
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 222 | 99% | 7.6 | 4.1 | 64.4% | 0.12 | +1.2 pp | 219 |
| Passing defense | 214 | 99% | 8.1 | 5.1 | 61.2% | 0.31 | -0.8 pp | 212 |
Rushing production
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 281 | 3.2 | 42.0% | 0.02 | 3.00 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 16.1% | 71.1% |
| Defense allowed | 295 | 4.1 | 46.6% | 0.10 | 3.10 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 18.4% | 72.5% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
Rushing sample and attribution
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 280 / 281 | 278 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 255 / 255 · 100.0% |
| Defense allowed | 292 / 295 | 286 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 276 / 277 · 99.6% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
Game-by-game passing and rushing
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +1.2 pp. 8 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
Game log and attempt coverage
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Toledo | 34 | 34 | 76.5% | 59.8% | +16.7 pp | 8.1 | 0.53 | 49 | 3.1 | -0.17 |
| W2 | Eastern Michigan | 26 | 24 | 66.7% | 63.2% | +3.4 pp | 6.7 | 0.35 | 45 | 5.7 | 0.36 |
| W3 | Notre Dame | 18 | 18 | 50.0% | 56.4% | -6.4 pp | 12.4 | -0.14 | 27 | 1.6 | 0.03 |
| W4 | Nebraska | 28 | 28 | 67.9% | 63.4% | +4.5 pp | 7.8 | 0.18 | 32 | 1.3 | 0.03 |
| W5 | Wisconsin | 34 | 34 | 47.1% | 65.7% | -18.6 pp | 5.4 | -0.53 | 45 | 2.8 | -0.13 |
| W6 | Illinois | 27 | 26 | 84.6% | 65.1% | +19.5 pp | 5.4 | 0.74 | 27 | 4.7 | 0.28 |
| W7 | Northwestern | 30 | 30 | 63.3% | 63.8% | -0.5 pp | 8.7 | 0.07 | 27 | 3.3 | 0.13 |
| W8 | UCLA | 25 | 25 | 52.0% | 62.5% | -10.5 pp | 8.3 | -0.28 | 29 | 1.6 | -0.35 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
Punting and returns
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
Our punts
26 punts · 47.5 gross yards/punt · 41.6 net yards/punt
7 inside the 20 · 6 touchbacks · 1 blocked
Known gross yards: 26/26 punts. Known net yards: 22/26 punts.
Our punt returns
10 returns · 13.1 yards/return · 0 touchdowns
1 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 10/10 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
Recent games
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 · UCLA | 7 | 43.3 | 40.0 | 6/7 |
| Week 7 · Northwestern | 3 | 48.0 | 40.0 | 3/3 |
| Week 6 · Illinois | 2 | 64.5 | 54.5 | 2/2 |
| Week 5 · Wisconsin | 4 | 54.5 | 41.5 | 4/4 |
| Week 4 · Nebraska | 2 | 50.5 | 44.5 | 2/2 |