Skip to content
CFB/LAB
Menu

Illinois

2026 season

Big Ten
2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Illinois's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 52 across 8 systems; best 46, worst 103, so they disagree by 57 places.

Lab EPA
#103
Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS
#49
up 122026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+
#48
up 42026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo
#55
up 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI
#48
up 52026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE
#90
no change · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS
#46
up 122026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA
#103
no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record
#53 of 138
Schedule strength
#36 of 138
Remaining schedule strength
#32 of 138
Game control
#52 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall
#54 of 138
Offense
#20 of 138
Defense
#99 of 138
Special teams
#70 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Illinois · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

-0.084 net EPA/play

#103

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

3.72 points

#49 · Up 12 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +3.29 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +0.42, schedule #40 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average +4.43. That is worth +3.71 on its own; the preseason prior of +3.75 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +3.72.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Illinois · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

GameRaw margin → transformedVenue adjustmentRecency weightFit shareOpponent ratingMargin termOpponent termTotal term
Week 1 · UAB
home · 2026-09-04 · ID 401858424
+19.00 → +19.00-2.500.76379.48%-8.451.564-0.8010.763
Week 2 · Duke
home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401858217
-4.00 → -4.00-2.500.79379.85%+4.78-0.6400.471-0.170
Week 3 · Southern Illinois
home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858448
+38.00 → +35.00-2.500.824910.24%-25.00 (fixed lower division)3.328-2.5600.768
Week 4 · Ohio State
away · 2026-09-26 · ID 401858465
-23.00 → -23.00+2.500.857210.64%+19.19-2.1812.042-0.140
Week 5 · Purdue
home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401858472
-7.00 → -7.00-2.500.890911.06%+0.88-1.0510.097-0.953
Week 6 · Michigan State
away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401858480
+1.00 → +1.00 (OT)+2.500.925911.49%+0.050.4020.0060.408
Week 8 · Oregon
home · 2026-10-24 · ID 401858495
+11.00 → +11.00-2.501.000012.41%+8.551.0551.0612.116

Game terms +2.79 points; prior term +0.93 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +3.72 points. The preseason prior is +3.75 with 24.83% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

6.8 SP+ points

#48 · Up 4 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

-6.09 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#90 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 9.94 on 366 plays; defense 16.03 on 370 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Illinois 54 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches
Record
4-3 · conf 2-2 · home 3-2 · away 1-1 · expected wins 2.3
Polls (Week 9)
unranked
CFP latest
not published
CFP final
not published
Against the spread
2026: 3-4 ATS (-1.4 avg) · 2025: 8-5 ATS (-1.5 avg)
Head coach
Bret Bielema · hired 2020-12-19 · 24-14 over 4 captured seasons
Recruiting classes
2024 #49 (199 pts) · 2025 #45 (203 pts) · 2026 #24 (230 pts)
Returning
21% of production · 44% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
CategoryProductionUsage
Passing3%1%
Receiving31%46%
Rushing34%83%

Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position groupCommitsAvg. starsAvg. ratingTotal rating
Defensive Back163.060.866213.86
Defensive Line202.950.862817.26
Linebacker93.220.86907.82
Offensive Line153.130.863712.96
Quarterback43.000.87053.48
Receiver133.080.866011.26
Running Back53.200.88004.40
Special Teams83.250.86326.91

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / historyMetricValuePlays / attemptsOverall usageUsage detailRecruiting
Katin Houser · QB

CFBD athlete 4795295. Michigan State (2022–2023); East Carolina (2024–2025); Illinois (2026–2026)

Passing WEPA0.38917156.1%
Pass 96.0% · Rush 13.9%

1st 49.4% · 2nd 60.9% · 3rd 62.0%

Standard downs 50.6% · Passing downs 69.3%

2022: 4★ · 0.9170
Aidan Laughery · RB

CFBD athlete 4827047. Illinois (2022–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.2307319.9%
Pass 5.9% · Rush 35.7%

1st 24.2% · 2nd 20.5% · 3rd 11.5%

Standard downs 22.7% · Passing downs 13.1%

2022: 3★ · 0.8752
Ca'Lil Valentine · RB

CFBD athlete 5106299. Illinois (2024–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.1944117.0%
Pass 2.5% · Rush 35.0%

1st 22.5% · 2nd 16.5% · 3rd 8.6%

Standard downs 21.4% · Passing downs 5.7%

2024: 4★ · 0.8950
Ethan Moczulski · PK

CFBD athlete 4870578. Texas A&M (2022–2023); Washington (2025–2025); Illinois (2024–2024); Illinois (2026–2026)

Kicker PAAR7.56012—
Pass — · Rush —

1st — · 2nd — · 3rd —

Standard downs — · Passing downs —

2022: 3★ · 0.8356
Brayden Trimble · WR

CFBD athlete 5211769. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——7.2%
Pass 14.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 6.2% · 2nd 5.5% · 3rd 10.3%

Standard downs 7.0% · Passing downs 7.7%

Not linked
Carson Boyd · QB

CFBD athlete 5196352. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.7%
Pass 2.3% · Rush 5.2%

1st 1.2% · 2nd 6.5% · 3rd 5.0%

Standard downs 4.4% · Passing downs 1.9%

Not linked
Christian Abney · TE

CFBD athlete 5076651. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.3%
Pass 4.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.9% · 2nd 4.6% · 3rd 1.9%

Standard downs 1.6% · Passing downs 4.2%

Not linked
Collin Dixon · WR

CFBD athlete 4923226. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——16.0%
Pass 31.8% · Rush 0.5%

1st 11.9% · 2nd 20.5% · 3rd 14.9%

Standard downs 12.8% · Passing downs 23.8%

Not linked
Davin Stoffel · TE

CFBD athlete 5154729. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.9%
Pass 3.4% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 2.2% · 3rd 5.8%

Standard downs 0.5% · Passing downs 5.1%

Not linked
Eddie Kasper · WR

CFBD athlete 5087240. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 2.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Hudson Clement · WR

CFBD athlete 5100582. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——9.9%
Pass 20.0% · Rush 0.0%

1st 10.3% · 2nd 13.0% · 3rd 5.7%

Standard downs 8.3% · Passing downs 13.8%

Not linked
Javari Barnett · RB

CFBD athlete 5203604. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——6.8%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 14.3%

1st 11.4% · 2nd 4.6% · 3rd 1.8%

Standard downs 8.8% · Passing downs 2.5%

Not linked
Jershaun Newton · WR

CFBD athlete 5217444. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.5%
Pass 1.6% · Rush 1.5%

1st 1.9% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 3.2%

Standard downs 2.3% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Jordan Anderson · RB

CFBD athlete 4826636. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——8.0%
Pass 0.5% · Rush 16.3%

1st 9.1% · 2nd 3.3% · 3rd 12.0%

Standard downs 9.6% · Passing downs 4.4%

Not linked
Kaden Feagin · TE

CFBD athlete 4870728. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.6%
Pass 7.3% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.1% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 6.0%

Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 6.1%

Not linked
Michael Clayton II · QB

CFBD athlete 5198286. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——23.7%
Pass 44.8% · Rush 7.1%

1st 10.7% · 2nd 25.6% · 3rd 44.8%

Standard downs 15.7% · Passing downs 40.5%

Not linked
Ty Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 4689721. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.2%
Pass 8.0% · Rush 0.0%

1st 4.1% · 2nd 3.9% · 3rd 4.2%

Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 6.1%

Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 20 reported
PlayerFromDateStars / ratingEligibility
Alex Perry · WRFlorida International2026-01-083★ / 0.8600Immediate
Carter Janki · DLPennsylvania2026-01-043★ / 0.8300Immediate
Christian Martin · OTColorado State2026-01-063★ / 0.8500Immediate
Connor Sullivan · DLWashington State2026-01-093★ / 0.8400Immediate
Darrell Prater · DLJacksonville State2026-01-213★ / 0.8600Immediate
Deuce Fillmore · CBGeorgia State2026-01-103★ / 0.8400Immediate
Ean Rhea · EDGEEmory & Henry2026-05-243★ / 0.8400Immediate
Eddie Kasper · WRIllinois State2026-03-053★ / 0.8500Immediate
Ethan Moczulski · KWashington2026-01-153★ / 0.8300Immediate
Isaiah Thomison · DLBowling Green2026-01-173★ / 0.8600Immediate
Jake Renfro · IOLWisconsin2026-01-053★ / 0.8600Immediate
James Finley IV · SNorthern Illinois2026-03-254★ / 0.9000Immediate
Jayshon Platt · WRFlorida Atlantic2026-01-063★ / 0.8600Immediate
Katin Houser · QBEast Carolina2026-01-053★ / 0.8800Immediate
Lavon Williams · SEast Texas A&M2026-01-043★ / 0.8600Immediate
Maurice Smith · ATHChowan2026-01-05— / —Immediate
Robert Edmonson · LBColorado State2026-01-103★ / 0.8700Immediate
Ty Robinson · WRBall State2026-01-073★ / 0.8500Immediate
William Holmes · EDGEUtah State2026-01-083★ / 0.8600Immediate
Zach Haber · LSArkansas2026-01-07— / —Immediate
Outgoing · 27 reported
PlayerToDateStars / ratingEligibility
Alexander Capka-Jones · WRNot reported2026-01-153★ / —Immediate
Amar Reynolds · CBFlorida Atlantic2026-01-073★ / —Immediate
Angelo McCullom · DLTexas A&M2026-01-113★ / 0.8800Immediate
Ashton Hollins · WRGeorgia Southern2026-01-143★ / 0.8200Immediate
Cole Rusk · TEArizona2026-01-064★ / 0.9100Immediate
Curt Neal · DLPurdue2026-01-073★ / 0.8600Immediate
David Olano · KTexas A&M2026-01-053★ / —Immediate
Donovan Turner · CBSacramento State2026-01-153★ / 0.8300Immediate
Easton Baker · LBNot reported2025-12-023★ / 0.8300Immediate
Eli Coenen · DLMichigan State2026-01-123★ / 0.8600Immediate
Ethan Hampton · QBSouthern Miss2026-01-113★ / —Immediate
Harrysson Ngassa · EDGESouth Florida2026-04-302★ / —Immediate
Jake Furtney · TEOhio2026-01-093★ / —Immediate
Jeremiah Warren · DLPittsburgh2026-01-103★ / 0.8600Immediate
Jojo Hayden · LBPurdue2026-01-083★ / 0.8700Immediate
Justin Bowick · WROklahoma State2026-01-084★ / 0.9000Immediate
Kaleb Patterson · CBKansas State2026-01-053★ / 0.8700Immediate
Kellen Francis · OTNot reported2025-12-31— / —Immediate
Malachi Hood · LBWest Virginia2026-01-073★ / 0.8500Immediate
Malik Elzy · WRLSU2026-01-093★ / 0.8600Immediate
Mario Sanders II · WRSouthern Miss2026-01-133★ / 0.8400Immediate
Saboor Karriem · STemple2026-01-103★ / —Immediate
Tomiwa Durojaiye · DLSouth Carolina2026-01-104★ / 0.9300Immediate
Trey Petty · QBWestern Michigan2026-01-103★ / 0.8300Immediate
Tyler McMillan · OTEastern Michigan2026-01-133★ / 0.8400Immediate
Tyson Rooks · SNot reported2026-01-023★ / —Immediate
Vernon Woodward III · CBJacksonville State2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Illinois. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Bret Bielema · career 134–84 across 18 seasons and 3 schools

Tenure timeline · 25 appointments
  1. 2021–present · Bret Bielema · active at capture

    37–26 · 63 attributed games · 6 seasons

    Hired 2020-12-19. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  2. 2020–2020 · Rod Smith

    0–1 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2020-12-13. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  3. 2016–2020 · Lovie Smith

    17–39 · 56 attributed games · 5 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2016-03-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  4. 2015–2015 · Bill Cubit

    5–7 · 12 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Hired 2015-08-28. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  5. 2012–2014 · Tim Beckman

    12–25 · 37 attributed games · 3 seasons

    Hired 2011-12-09. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  6. 2005–2011 · Ron Zook

    34–51 · 85 attributed games · 7 seasons

    Hired 2004-12-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  7. 1997–2004 · Ron Turner

    35–57 · 92 attributed games · 8 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  8. 1992–1996 · Lou Tepper

    25–30–2 · 57 attributed games · 5 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  9. 1988–1991 · John Mackovic

    30–16–1 · 47 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  10. 1980–1987 · Mike White

    47–41–3 · 91 attributed games · 8 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  11. 1977–1979 · Gary Moeller

    6–24–3 · 33 attributed games · 3 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  12. 1971–1976 · Bob Blackman

    29–36–1 · 66 attributed games · 6 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  13. 1967–1970 · James Valek

    8–32 · 40 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  14. 1960–1966 · Pete Elliott

    31–34–1 · 66 attributed games · 7 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  15. 1942–1959 · Ray Eliot

    83–73–11 · 167 attributed games · 18 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  16. 1913–1941 · Robert Zuppke

    131–81–12 · 224 attributed games · 29 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  17. 1907–1912 · Arthur Hall

    27–10–3 · 40 attributed games · 6 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  18. 1906–1906 · Justa Lindgren

    1–3–1 · 5 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  19. 1905–1905 · Fred Lowenthal

    5–4 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  20. 1903–1903 · George Woodruff

    8–6 · 14 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  21. 1901–1902 · Edgar Holt

    18–4–1 · 23 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  22. 1900–1900 · Fred Smith

    7–3–2 · 12 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  23. 1895–1899 · George Huff

    21–16–3 · 40 attributed games · 5 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  24. 1894–1894 · Louis Vail

    5–3 · 8 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  25. 1892–1893 · E.K. Hall

    12–5–5 · 22 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coachRecordConferencePostseasonSP+SRSRecruiting rankFinal poll
2026 · Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution0–0——65.724—
2025 · Bret Bielema9–45–41–012.912.345—
2024 · Bret Bielema10–36–31–09.68.84916
2023 · Bret Bielema5–73–60–0-2.5-2.338—
2022 · Bret Bielema8–55–40–115.911.746—
2021 · Bret Bielema5–74–50–04.3-0.973—
2020 · Lovie Smith · incomplete attribution2–5——-5.4-7.487—
2020 · Rod Smith · incomplete attribution0–1——-5.4-7.487—
2019 · Lovie Smith6–74–50–10.6-0.453—
2018 · Lovie Smith4–82–70–0-7.9-10.554—
2017 · Lovie Smith2–100–90–0-7.4-11.446—
2016 · Lovie Smith3–92–70–0-6.7-10.173—
2015 · Bill Cubit5–72–60–02.7-1.548—
Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:15:28 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

StatisticOffense rank / populationPercentileDefense rank / populationPercentile
PPA / play35 / 13875.2124 / 13810.2
Success rate23 / 13883.9120 / 13813.1
Explosiveness51 / 13863.593 / 13832.8
Standard-down success21 / 13885.4109 / 13821.2
Passing-down success26 / 13881.8127 / 1388.0
Pass PPA45 / 13867.9115 / 13816.8
Rush PPA38 / 13873.0109 / 13821.2
Pass explosiveness104 / 13824.826 / 13881.8
Rush explosiveness34 / 13875.9103 / 13825.5
Line yards21 / 13885.458 / 13858.4
Second-level yards61 / 13856.264 / 13854.0
Open-field yards28 / 13880.330 / 13878.8
Stuff rate6 / 13896.468 / 13851.1
Power success68 / 13851.1T72 / 13847.8
HavocT13 / 13890.9120 / 13813.1
Front-seven havocT9 / 13893.4T116 / 13815.0
DB havocT82 / 13838.3T92 / 13832.1
Points / opportunity70 / 13849.688 / 13836.5
Average field positionT93 / 13832.1T78 / 13842.7
Field-position expected points100 / 13827.7T78 / 13843.4

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Katin Houser · QBUsage 56.1% · Avg PPA 0.317 · Total 68.497
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.31768.49756.1%
Pass0.28554.37396.0%
Rush0.73617.66313.9%
1st down0.27222.83749.4%
2nd down0.49138.26960.9%
3rd down0.43118.94562.0%
Standard downs0.30341.48450.6%
Passing downs0.34227.01369.3%
Michael Clayton II · QBUsage 23.7% · Avg PPA -0.061 · Total -1.889
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.061-1.88923.7%
Pass0.2837.34644.8%
Rush-1.847-9.2357.1%
1st down-0.934-5.60710.7%
2nd down0.4464.90725.6%
3rd down0.2363.07244.8%
Standard downs-0.472-6.61215.7%
Passing downs0.2784.72440.5%
Aidan Laughery · RBUsage 19.9% · Avg PPA 0.238 · Total 20.954
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.23820.95419.9%
Pass0.1872.4305.9%
Rush0.24718.52435.7%
1st down0.0190.88424.2%
2nd down0.44313.28920.5%
3rd down0.4984.98111.5%
Standard downs0.1188.40722.7%
Passing downs0.73812.54713.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine · RBUsage 17.0% · Avg PPA 0.102 · Total 5.399
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1025.39917.0%
Pass0.8133.2512.5%
Rush0.0442.14835.0%
1st down-0.041-1.26722.5%
2nd down0.4036.84616.5%
3rd down-0.036-0.1808.6%
Standard downs0.1346.42021.4%
Passing downs-0.204-1.0215.7%
Collin Dixon · WRUsage 16.0% · Avg PPA 0.834 · Total 59.248
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.83459.24816.0%
Pass0.84358.99131.8%
Rush0.2570.2570.5%
1st down0.72316.61911.9%
2nd down0.68620.57420.5%
3rd down1.52619.84414.9%
Standard downs0.61924.76512.8%
Passing downs1.11234.48323.8%
Hudson Clement · WRUsage 9.9% · Avg PPA 0.459 · Total 20.194
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.45920.1949.9%
Pass0.45920.19420.0%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.3947.87110.3%
2nd down0.4678.88013.0%
3rd down0.6893.4435.7%
Standard downs0.40810.5968.3%
Passing downs0.5339.59813.8%
Jordan Anderson · RBUsage 8.0% · Avg PPA 0.077 · Total 2.320
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0772.3208.0%
Pass-0.504-0.5040.5%
Rush0.0972.82416.3%
1st down-0.107-1.6009.1%
2nd down0.4661.8643.3%
3rd down0.4714.23812.0%
Standard downs-0.012-0.3079.6%
Passing downs0.5252.6274.4%
Brayden Trimble · WRUsage 7.2% · Avg PPA -0.160 · Total -5.118
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.160-5.1187.2%
Pass-0.160-5.11814.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.1491.7876.2%
2nd down0.2782.2235.5%
3rd down0.3122.80810.3%
Standard downs-0.085-1.8667.0%
Passing downs-0.325-3.2537.7%
Javari Barnett · RBUsage 6.8% · Avg PPA 0.096 · Total 1.733
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0961.7336.8%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush0.0961.73314.3%
1st down0.0120.16211.4%
2nd down0.0680.2724.6%
3rd down1.2991.2991.8%
Standard downs0.0821.3188.8%
Passing downs0.2080.4162.5%
Ty Robinson · WRUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA 0.673 · Total 10.761
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.67310.7614.2%
Pass0.67310.7618.0%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down1.0047.0264.1%
2nd down1.4547.2693.9%
3rd down0.0310.0944.2%
Standard downs1.0169.1443.3%
Passing downs0.2311.6176.1%
Carson Boyd · QBUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA 0.339 · Total 2.370
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.3392.3703.7%
Pass-0.410-0.8192.3%
Rush0.6383.1905.2%
1st down0.0860.0861.2%
2nd down-0.160-0.6416.5%
3rd down1.4632.9265.0%
Standard downs0.3271.9594.4%
Passing downs0.4110.4111.9%
Kaden Feagin · TEUsage 3.6% · Avg PPA -0.412 · Total -4.939
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.412-4.9393.6%
Pass-0.412-4.9397.3%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.284-0.8522.1%
2nd down-0.428-2.1394.5%
3rd down-0.487-1.9486.0%
Standard downs-0.219-1.3122.6%
Passing downs-0.604-3.6276.1%
Christian Abney · TEUsage 2.3% · Avg PPA 0.145 · Total 0.872
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1450.8722.3%
Pass0.1450.8724.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.2890.2890.9%
2nd down0.3931.5734.6%
3rd down-0.990-0.9901.9%
Standard downs0.5841.7531.6%
Passing downs-0.294-0.8814.2%
Davin Stoffel · TEUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA 0.274 · Total 1.368
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2741.3681.9%
Pass0.2741.3683.4%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down-0.150-0.3002.2%
3rd down0.5561.6685.8%
Standard downs0.5430.5430.5%
Passing downs0.2060.8255.1%
Jershaun Newton · WRUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA -0.288 · Total -0.575
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.288-0.5751.5%
Pass0.0860.0861.6%
Rush-0.661-0.6611.5%
1st down0.0860.0861.9%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down-0.661-0.6613.2%
Standard downs-0.288-0.5752.3%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Eddie Kasper · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -0.382 · Total -0.382
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.382-0.3821.4%
Pass-0.382-0.3822.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down-0.382-0.3824.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.382-0.3822.1%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Where Illinois sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Offense PPA/playOffense PPA/play: 0.211 (75th percentile; 138 teams)75thOffense success rateOffense success rate: 0.483 (84th percentile; 138 teams)84thOffense explosivenessOffense explosiveness: 1.261 (64th percentile; 138 teams)64thOffense pass PPA/playOffense pass PPA/play: 0.288 (68th percentile; 138 teams)68thOffense rush PPA/playOffense rush PPA/play: 0.164 (73rd percentile; 138 teams)73rdDefense PPA/playDefense PPA/play: 0.232 (10th percentile; 138 teams)10thDefense success rateDefense success rate: 0.456 (13th percentile; 138 teams)13thDefense explosivenessDefense explosiveness: 1.259 (33rd percentile; 138 teams)33rdDefense havoc createdDefense havoc created: 0.129 (13th percentile; 138 teams)13th
Values and percentiles
Illinois metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
MetricValuePercentileBetter
Offense PPA/play0.21175th138 teamshigher
Offense success rate0.48384th138 teamshigher
Offense explosiveness1.26164th138 teamshigher
Offense pass PPA/play0.28868th138 teamshigher
Offense rush PPA/play0.16473rd138 teamshigher
Defense PPA/play0.23210th138 teamslower
Defense success rate0.45613th138 teamslower
Defense explosiveness1.25933rd138 teamslower
Defense havoc created0.12913th138 teamshigher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 98% of 213 attempts charted. Average depth of target 9.7 yards (78th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 4.0 per completion. Completion 65.3%, 7.5 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.35.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
SideActualExpectedCPOE (pp)Qualifying / all attempts
Offense63.3%59.1%+4.2180 / 213
Defense allowed69.3%61.6%+7.7179 / 226

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses
Air Force: ADOT 13.1, YAC 3.9Akron: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.5Alabama: ADOT 9.9, YAC 5.3App State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 5.5Arizona: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.6Arizona State: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Arkansas: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.7Arkansas State: ADOT 9.0, YAC 5.3Army: ADOT 12.7, YAC 3.7Auburn: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.9BYU: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.4Ball State: ADOT 7.5, YAC 5.0Baylor: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.8Boise State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.3Boston College: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.0Bowling Green: ADOT 6.5, YAC 5.9Buffalo: ADOT 9.5, YAC 2.0California: ADOT 6.1, YAC 5.9Central Michigan: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.6Charlotte: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.6Cincinnati: ADOT 7.1, YAC 6.5Clemson: ADOT 6.7, YAC 5.7Coastal Carolina: ADOT 11.2, YAC 5.6Colorado: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.1Colorado State: ADOT 5.1, YAC 8.8Delaware: ADOT 9.4, YAC 6.3Duke: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.4East Carolina: ADOT 8.4, YAC 6.2Eastern Michigan: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.4Florida: ADOT 7.2, YAC 6.9Florida Atlantic: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.7Florida International: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.3Florida State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 8.5Fresno State: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.6Georgia: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.6Georgia Southern: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.1Georgia State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.5Georgia Tech: ADOT 7.3, YAC 5.0Hawai'i: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.2Houston: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.7Indiana: ADOT 11.4, YAC 5.2Iowa: ADOT 7.7, YAC 6.2Iowa State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Jacksonville State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.8James Madison: ADOT 8.6, YAC 4.8Kansas: ADOT 12.6, YAC 5.3Kansas State: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.3Kennesaw State: ADOT 6.8, YAC 4.9Kent State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 4.9Kentucky: ADOT 6.7, YAC 7.0LSU: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Liberty: ADOT 11.3, YAC 6.2Louisiana: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Louisiana Tech: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.6Louisville: ADOT 9.0, YAC 7.7Marshall: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.5Maryland: ADOT 7.0, YAC 6.2Massachusetts: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.2Memphis: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.7Miami: ADOT 7.3, YAC 7.2Miami (OH): ADOT 10.5, YAC 6.6Michigan: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.6Michigan State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 4.1Middle Tennessee: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.5Minnesota: ADOT 6.4, YAC 6.3Mississippi State: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.8Missouri: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.2Missouri State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 5.7NC State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Navy: ADOT 14.2, YAC 8.6Nebraska: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.8Nevada: ADOT 7.9, YAC 6.3New Mexico: ADOT 10.4, YAC 6.0New Mexico State: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.3North Carolina: ADOT 7.8, YAC 6.3North Dakota State: ADOT 10.6, YAC 4.6North Texas: ADOT 9.2, YAC 6.0Northern Illinois: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Northwestern: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.5Notre Dame: ADOT 9.6, YAC 5.0Ohio: ADOT 9.4, YAC 5.6Ohio State: ADOT 11.0, YAC 4.9Oklahoma: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.5Oklahoma State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.2Old Dominion: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.1Ole Miss: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Oregon: ADOT 7.5, YAC 6.4Oregon State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 8.3Penn State: ADOT 9.7, YAC 5.0Pittsburgh: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.6Purdue: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Rice: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.9Rutgers: ADOT 10.9, YAC 5.2SMU: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.9Sacramento State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.3Sam Houston: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.5San Diego State: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.3San José State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 3.8South Alabama: ADOT 10.1, YAC 5.2South Carolina: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.9South Florida: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.1Southern Miss: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.0Stanford: ADOT 8.9, YAC 4.6Syracuse: ADOT 9.3, YAC 5.7TCU: ADOT 9.0, YAC 4.7Temple: ADOT 8.7, YAC 7.1Tennessee: ADOT 6.9, YAC 6.8Texas: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.2Texas A&M: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.3Texas State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.5Texas Tech: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.7Toledo: ADOT 8.8, YAC 6.2Troy: ADOT 8.9, YAC 6.5Tulane: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.0Tulsa: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.7UAB: ADOT 10.0, YAC 4.3UCF: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.5UCLA: ADOT 9.0, YAC 6.0UConn: ADOT 10.8, YAC 6.5UL Monroe: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.7UNLV: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.0USC: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0UTEP: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.2UTSA: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.8Utah: ADOT 10.0, YAC 5.6Utah State: ADOT 9.8, YAC 4.7Vanderbilt: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.1Virginia: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.9Virginia Tech: ADOT 6.5, YAC 7.0Wake Forest: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0Washington: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Washington State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 3.7West Virginia: ADOT 13.8, YAC 8.5Western Kentucky: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.4Western Michigan: ADOT 8.1, YAC 5.3Wisconsin: ADOT 6.9, YAC 7.4Wyoming: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.6Illinois: ADOT 9.7, YAC 4.0Average depth of target (yards) →Yards after catch per completion →

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Illinois.

Target mix by zone, Illinois offense
Short left36% · 74Short middle12% · 25Short right38% · 78Deep left7% · 15Deep middle2% · 5Deep right4% · 8

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail
Illinois passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
SideAttemptsChartedADOTYACComp %PPACPOECPOE att
Passing offense21398%9.74.065.3%0.35+4.2 pp180
Passing defense22697%9.05.166.4%0.35+7.7 pp179

Rushing production

SideAttemptsYards / carrySuccessPPALine yards / rushSecond-level yards / rushOpen-field yards / rushStuff ratePower success
Offense2185.246.6%0.203.401.101.5011.1%73.1%
Defense allowed2343.944.5%0.213.101.000.7014.5%71.8%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

SideYards recordedIndividualUnattributedSacksKneelsTeam rushesMultiple carriersDirection located / eligible
Offense216 / 21821539110207 / 208 · 99.5%
Defense allowed229 / 234222127670219 / 220 · 99.5%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +4.2 pp. 6 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

-1.15.913.0W1W1 vs UAB: +13.0 ppW2W2 vs Duke: +8.6 ppW3W4W4 vs Ohio State: -1.0 ppW5W5 vs Purdue: +1.3 ppW6W6 vs Michigan State: +7.0 ppW8W8 vs Oregon: -1.1 pp

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage
WeekOpponentPass attCPOE attComp %*Expected %*CPOEADOTPass PPARush attRush yds/carryRush PPA
W1UAB171675.0%62.0%+13.0 pp7.30.89265.80.15
W2Duke363568.6%59.9%+8.6 pp9.00.29323.9-0.11
W3Southern Illinois290———10.20.71286.70.51
W4Ohio State383655.6%56.5%-1.0 pp11.40.17336.00.57
W5Purdue383855.3%54.0%+1.3 pp12.90.15274.40.10
W6Michigan State363669.4%62.4%+7.0 pp7.60.38333.8-0.04
W8Oregon191963.2%64.3%-1.1 pp6.60.15395.80.29

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

18 punts · 43.3 gross yards/punt · 39.9 net yards/punt

6 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 18/18 punts. Known net yards: 14/18 punts.

Our punt returns

4 returns · 24.5 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 4/4 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games
GamePuntsGross yd/puntNet yd/puntKnown net yards
Week 8 · Oregon844.541.17/8
Week 6 · Michigan State144.039.01/1
Week 5 · Purdue337.337.33/3
Week 4 · Ohio State247.5—0/2
Week 3 · Southern Illinois343.348.52/3
Team style
Rating history