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Fresno State

2026 season

Pac-12
2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Fresno State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 58 across 8 systems; best 42, worst 74, so they disagree by 32 places.

Lab EPA
#55
Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS
#67
down 42026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+
#61
down 22026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo
#42
up 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI
#74
down 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE
#46
up 1 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS
#73
up 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA
#55
no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record
#84 of 138
Schedule strength
#93 of 138
Remaining schedule strength
#85 of 138
Game control
#89 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall
#75 of 138
Offense
#83 of 138
Defense
#75 of 138
Special teams
#42 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Fresno State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

4-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.030 net EPA/play

#55

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

0.87 points

#67 · Down 4 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +6.12 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -4.93, schedule #95 of 138 (#1 = toughest). That is worth +1.19 on its own; the preseason prior of -0.12 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +0.87.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Fresno State · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

GameRaw margin → transformedVenue adjustmentRecency weightFit shareOpponent ratingMargin termOpponent termTotal term
Week 1 · USC
away · 2026-09-05 · ID 401858436
-39.00 → -35.00+2.500.76379.52%+7.22-3.0950.687-2.408
Week 2 · Sacramento State
home · 2026-09-13 · ID 401860883
+46.00 → +35.00-2.500.79379.90%-20.333.217-2.0121.205
Week 3 · San José State
away · 2026-09-20 · ID 401860888
+16.00 → +16.00+2.500.824910.29%-8.631.903-0.8881.015
Week 4 · Rice
home · 2026-09-27 · ID 401860891
+14.00 → +14.00-2.500.857210.69%-9.251.229-0.9890.241
Week 5 · Washington State
away · 2026-10-04 · ID 401860921
+20.00 → +20.00+2.500.890911.11%-7.022.500-0.7801.720
Week 6 · Boise State
home · 2026-10-11 · ID 401860901
-7.00 → -7.00-2.500.925911.55%+8.47-1.0970.978-0.119
Week 7 · San Diego State
away · 2026-10-18 · ID 401860904
-3.00 → -3.00+2.500.962212.00%-5.79-0.060-0.695-0.755

Game terms +0.90 points; prior term -0.03 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +0.87 points. The preseason prior is -0.12 with 24.94% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.3 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

2.6 SP+ points

#61 · Down 2 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

5.02 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#46 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 2.56 on 382 plays; defense -2.46 on 396 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Fresno State 12 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches
Record
4-3 · conf 1-2 · home 2-1 · away 2-2 · expected wins 4.1
Polls (Week 9)
unranked
CFP latest
not published
CFP final
not published
Against the spread
2026: 5-2 ATS (+5.6 avg) · 2025: 7-6 ATS (+4.6 avg)
Head coach
Matt Entz · hired 2024-12-05 · 9-4 over 2 captured seasons
Recruiting classes
2024 #86 (161 pts) · 2025 #103 (143 pts) · 2026 #70 (189 pts)
Returning
38% of production · 49% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
CategoryProductionUsage
Passing7%1%
Receiving70%75%
Rushing17%71%

Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position groupCommitsAvg. starsAvg. ratingTotal rating
Defensive Back122.920.83099.97
Defensive Line92.890.84197.58
Linebacker83.000.84106.73
Offensive Line82.880.83816.70
Quarterback63.000.84695.08
Receiver123.000.844910.14
Running Back53.000.84584.23
Special Teams82.880.82826.63

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / historyMetricValuePlays / attemptsOverall usageUsage detailRecruiting
Jayden Mandal · QB

CFBD athlete 5010409. Fresno State (2023–2026)

Passing WEPA0.32721256.1%
Pass 97.2% · Rush 18.0%

1st 40.1% · 2nd 64.1% · 3rd 80.0%

Standard downs 44.5% · Passing downs 81.6%

2023: 3★ · 0.8444
Bryson Donelson · RB

CFBD athlete 5175334. Fresno State (2024–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.1776916.6%
Pass 3.8% · Rush 30.3%

1st 23.9% · 2nd 11.0% · 3rd 9.4%

Standard downs 22.7% · Passing downs 2.9%

2024: 3★ · 0.8144
Rayshon Luke · RB

CFBD athlete 4685445. Arizona (2022–2024); Fresno State (2025–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.1235217.4%
Pass 9.2% · Rush 25.9%

1st 20.8% · 2nd 19.4% · 3rd 8.9%

Standard downs 18.5% · Passing downs 15.1%

2022: 4★ · 0.9178
Jayden Mandal · QB

CFBD athlete 5010409. Fresno State (2023–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.1984156.1%
Pass 97.2% · Rush 18.0%

1st 40.1% · 2nd 64.1% · 3rd 80.0%

Standard downs 44.5% · Passing downs 81.6%

2023: 3★ · 0.8444
Julius Gillick · RB

CFBD athlete 5262650. Fresno State (2025–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.182378.3%
Pass 1.4% · Rush 15.6%

1st 9.6% · 2nd 9.7% · 3rd 1.2%

Standard downs 10.7% · Passing downs 2.9%

2025: 3★ · 0.8600
Mitchell Watanabe · PK

CFBD athlete 3933587. Fresno State (2026–2026)

Kicker PAAR9.98014—
Pass — · Rush —

1st — · 2nd — · 3rd —

Standard downs — · Passing downs —

Not linked
Andrew Chavez · RB

CFBD athlete 5382524. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.2%
Pass 1.7% · Rush 2.9%

1st 3.9% · 2nd 1.3% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 2.5% · Passing downs 1.5%

Not linked
Brock Lium · TE

CFBD athlete 5120905. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.5%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.9%

1st 3.2% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 2.2% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Dallas Gaius-Anyaegbu · TE

CFBD athlete 5291743. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0%

1st 3.3% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Darrian Anderson · WR

CFBD athlete 4837174. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 3.3% · Rush 0.0%

1st 3.2% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Ezekiel Avit · WR

CFBD athlete 5121384. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——7.4%
Pass 14.7% · Rush 0.5%

1st 7.6% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 10.6%

Standard downs 7.4% · Passing downs 7.4%

Not linked
Gavin Correia · TE

CFBD athlete 5295221. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.7%
Pass 7.6% · Rush 0.0%

1st 3.0% · 2nd 4.1% · 3rd 4.7%

Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 4.4%

Not linked
Harold Duvall · WR

CFBD athlete 5223768. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.4%
Pass 12.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 5.3% · 2nd 6.7% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 6.5% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Jahlil McClain · WR

CFBD athlete 4870923. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——6.7%
Pass 13.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 6.1% · 2nd 8.3% · 3rd 5.9%

Standard downs 5.7% · Passing downs 8.8%

Not linked
Jake Appleget · TE

CFBD athlete 4869294. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.0%
Pass 6.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.4% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 3.8%

Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 4.8%

Not linked
Jaylen Garrison · WR

CFBD athlete 5223892. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.7%

Standard downs 2.0% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Jayon Farrar · WR

CFBD athlete 5295211. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.0%
Pass 7.3% · Rush 0.7%

1st 6.7% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 1.8%

Standard downs 4.7% · Passing downs 2.3%

Not linked
Jordan Malau'ulu · WR

CFBD athlete 5143919. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.5%
Pass 2.0% · Rush 1.0%

1st 1.1% · 2nd 3.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 0.7% · Passing downs 3.5%

Not linked
Josiah Freeman · WR

CFBD athlete 5092483. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——12.6%
Pass 25.1% · Rush 0.9%

1st 5.1% · 2nd 17.9% · 3rd 21.2%

Standard downs 7.7% · Passing downs 23.5%

Not linked
Keynan Cotton · WR

CFBD athlete 5264243. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.5%
Pass 3.3% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 10.0%

Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 7.1%

Not linked
Khristian Martin · QB

CFBD athlete 5146667. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.3%
Pass 4.8% · Rush 4.2%

1st 2.7% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 11.5%

Standard downs 3.4% · Passing downs 6.7%

Not linked
Orlando Guevara · RB

CFBD athlete 5446767. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.9%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 14.3%

1st 8.3% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 5.9% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Tariq Thomas · RB

CFBD athlete 5225383. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.7%
Pass 2.2% · Rush 3.5%

1st 4.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 5.0%

Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 3.6%

Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 13 reported
PlayerFromDateStars / ratingEligibility
Croix Stewart · SUCLA2026-01-203★ / 0.8500Immediate
Darrian Anderson · WROregon2026-02-043★ / 0.8200Immediate
Dylan Hampsten · EDGESacramento State2026-01-103★ / 0.8300Immediate
Jake Appleget · TENorthern Illinois2026-01-143★ / 0.8300Immediate
Khristian Martin · QBMaryland2026-01-103★ / 0.8500Immediate
Manaki Watanabe · KNot reported2026-01-103★ / 0.8000Immediate
Maverick Noonan · EDGENebraska2026-01-123★ / 0.8400Immediate
Micah Mosley · EDGESacramento State2026-01-043★ / —Immediate
Oscar Weigel · OTSan Diego2026-01-183★ / 0.8500Immediate
Patrick Barnett · IOLUCF2026-01-223★ / 0.8200Immediate
Preston Okafor · SNebraska2026-01-09— / —Immediate
Tariq Thomas · RBBucknell2026-01-173★ / 0.8500Immediate
Taylor Powell · SNorthern Illinois2026-01-113★ / —Immediate
Outgoing · 10 reported
PlayerToDateStars / ratingEligibility
Brayden Turner · QBNot reported2026-01-093★ / —Immediate
Carson Conklin · QBSacramento State2026-01-153★ / 0.8500Immediate
Damarrion White · EDGENot reported2025-12-193★ / —Immediate
Isiah Chala Jr. · EDGESacramento State2026-01-213★ / 0.8200Immediate
Jack Metzler · EDGENot reported2025-12-182★ / —Immediate
Jayden Davis · SUConn2026-01-243★ / 0.8300Immediate
Josiah Ayon · WRNot reported2025-12-14— / —Immediate
RL Miller · SCal Poly2026-01-103★ / 0.8400Immediate
Richie Anderson · TETexas A&M2026-01-043★ / 0.8600Immediate
Tim Thomas · LBSacramento State2026-01-203★ / 0.8200Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Fresno State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Matt Entz · career 9–4 across 2 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 14 appointments
  1. 2025–present · Matt Entz · active at capture

    9–4 · 13 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Hired 2024-12-05. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  2. 2024–2024 · Tim Skipper · interim

    6–7 · 13 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Hired 2024-07-15. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  3. 2022–2023 · Jeff Tedford

    19–8 · 27 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Hired 2021-12-08. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  4. 2021–2021 · Lee Marks

    1–0 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2021-11-30. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  5. 2020–2021 · Kalen DeBoer

    12–6 · 18 attributed games · 2 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2019-12-17. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  6. 2017–2019 · Jeff Tedford

    26–14 · 40 attributed games · 3 seasons

    Hired 2019-12-17. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  7. 2016–2016 · Eric Kiesau

    0–4 · 4 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2016-10-25. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  8. 2012–2016 · Tim DeRuyter

    30–30 · 60 attributed games · 5 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2011-12-14. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  9. 1997–2011 · Pat Hill

    112–80 · 192 attributed games · 15 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  10. 1980–1996 · Jim Sweeney

    129–67–3 · 199 attributed games · 17 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  11. 1978–1979 · Bob Padilla

    7–15 · 22 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  12. 1976–1977 · Jim Sweeney

    14–8 · 22 attributed games · 2 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  13. 1973–1975 · J.R. Boone

    10–24 · 34 attributed games · 3 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  14. 1969–1972 · Darryl Rogers

    26–17–1 · 44 attributed games · 4 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coachRecordConferencePostseasonSP+SRSRecruiting rankFinal poll
2026 · Matt Entz · incomplete attribution0–0——3.4-1.370—
2025 · Matt Entz9–45–31–01.8-2.7103—
2024 · Tim Skipper6–74–30–1-3.8-686—
2023 · Jeff Tedford9–44–41–02.5-3.283—
2022 · Jeff Tedford10–48–11–03.32.47224
2021 · Kalen DeBoer · incomplete attribution9–3——10.85.274—
2021 · Lee Marks · incomplete attribution1–0——10.85.274—
2020 · Kalen DeBoer3–33–30–0-5.5-6.7121—
2019 · Jeff Tedford4–82–60–0-4-4.687—
2018 · Jeff Tedford12–28–11–017.412.892—
2017 · Jeff Tedford10–47–21–0-2.73.384—
2016 · Tim DeRuyter · incomplete attribution1–7——-16.9-20.585—
2016 · Eric Kiesau · incomplete attribution0–4——-16.9-20.585—
2015 · Tim DeRuyter3–92–60–0-12.6-17.972—
Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-23 16:47:54 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

StatisticOffense rank / populationPercentileDefense rank / populationPercentile
PPA / play84 / 13839.452 / 13862.8
Success rate108 / 13821.985 / 13838.7
Explosiveness38 / 13873.046 / 13867.2
Standard-down success122 / 13811.798 / 13829.2
Passing-down success52 / 13862.845 / 13867.9
Pass PPA42 / 13870.161 / 13856.2
Rush PPA115 / 13816.848 / 13865.7
Pass explosiveness81 / 13841.686 / 13838.0
Rush explosiveness37 / 13873.740 / 13871.5
Line yards127 / 1388.079 / 13843.1
Second-level yards101 / 13827.068 / 13851.1
Open-field yards33 / 13876.6112 / 13819.0
Stuff rate133 / 1383.666 / 13852.6
Power successT133 / 1382.9T74 / 13846.0
HavocT33 / 13876.3T81 / 13840.5
Front-seven havoc112 / 13819.071 / 13848.9
DB havocT2 / 13898.9T76 / 13844.2
Points / opportunity56 / 13859.938 / 13873.0
Average field positionT11 / 13892.0T3 / 13898.2
Field-position expected points15 / 13889.84 / 13897.8

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Jayden Mandal · QBUsage 56.1% · Avg PPA 0.256 · Total 62.372
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.25662.37256.1%
Pass0.29259.77497.2%
Rush0.1405.30518.0%
1st down0.0272.11540.1%
2nd down0.43740.62964.1%
3rd down0.53036.02880.0%
Standard downs0.15720.82044.5%
Passing downs0.37441.55381.6%
Rayshon Luke · RBUsage 17.4% · Avg PPA 0.049 · Total 3.314
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0493.31417.4%
Pass0.3185.0879.2%
Rush-0.035-1.77325.9%
1st down0.1154.13220.8%
2nd down-0.200-4.79419.4%
3rd down0.5683.9768.9%
Standard downs0.0381.86018.5%
Passing downs0.0811.45415.1%
Bryson Donelson · RBUsage 16.6% · Avg PPA 0.026 · Total 1.898
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0261.89816.6%
Pass0.1691.3513.8%
Rush0.0090.54730.3%
1st down-0.106-4.99823.9%
2nd down0.2063.30311.0%
3rd down0.3062.4469.4%
Standard downs0.0402.74322.7%
Passing downs-0.211-0.8462.9%
Josiah Freeman · WRUsage 12.6% · Avg PPA 0.576 · Total 31.658
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.57631.65812.6%
Pass0.55129.21625.1%
Rush1.2212.4420.9%
1st down0.1771.7675.1%
2nd down0.94924.66517.9%
3rd down0.5159.26321.2%
Standard downs0.85819.7437.7%
Passing downs0.37211.91523.5%
Julius Gillick · RBUsage 8.3% · Avg PPA 0.070 · Total 2.536
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0702.5368.3%
Pass0.5201.5611.4%
Rush0.0300.97515.6%
1st down0.3576.7919.6%
2nd down-0.019-0.2619.7%
3rd down-0.656-0.6561.2%
Standard downs0.0802.57010.7%
Passing downs-0.009-0.0342.9%
Ezekiel Avit · WRUsage 7.4% · Avg PPA 0.671 · Total 21.458
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.67121.4587.4%
Pass0.67520.93514.7%
Rush0.5230.5230.5%
1st down0.68210.2257.6%
2nd down1.92113.4454.8%
3rd down0.2071.86710.6%
Standard downs0.3257.1607.4%
Passing downs1.43014.2987.4%
Jahlil McClain · WRUsage 6.7% · Avg PPA 0.476 · Total 13.817
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.47613.8176.7%
Pass0.47613.81713.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.026-0.3076.1%
2nd down0.8069.6728.3%
3rd down0.8904.4525.9%
Standard downs0.3405.7865.7%
Passing downs0.6698.0318.8%
Harold Duvall · WRUsage 4.4% · Avg PPA 0.216 · Total 0.433
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.2160.4334.4%
Pass0.2160.43312.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.2960.2965.3%
2nd down0.1370.1376.7%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.2160.4336.5%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Khristian Martin · QBUsage 4.3% · Avg PPA 0.609 · Total 4.266
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.6094.2664.3%
Pass1.3665.4634.8%
Rush-0.399-1.1974.2%
1st down-0.158-0.3172.7%
2nd down2.6385.2753.4%
3rd down-0.231-0.69211.5%
Standard downs-0.368-1.4713.4%
Passing downs1.9135.7386.7%
Jayon Farrar · WRUsage 4.0% · Avg PPA 0.111 · Total 1.333
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1111.3334.0%
Pass0.1011.1137.3%
Rush0.2200.2200.7%
1st down0.0260.2356.7%
2nd down0.6951.3911.9%
3rd down-0.293-0.2931.8%
Standard downs0.1601.5994.7%
Passing downs-0.133-0.2672.3%
Orlando Guevara · RBUsage 3.9% · Avg PPA -0.971 · Total -1.942
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.971-1.9423.9%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush-0.971-1.94214.3%
1st down-0.971-1.9428.3%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.971-1.9425.9%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Gavin Correia · TEUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA 0.127 · Total 2.032
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1272.0323.7%
Pass0.1272.0327.6%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.786-4.7163.0%
2nd down0.4962.9784.1%
3rd down0.9433.7714.7%
Standard downs-0.355-3.5493.3%
Passing downs0.9305.5814.4%
Jake Appleget · TEUsage 3.0% · Avg PPA 0.586 · Total 4.684
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.5864.6843.0%
Pass0.5864.6846.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.5551.6642.4%
2nd down0.6982.0953.4%
3rd down0.4620.9253.8%
Standard downs0.5732.2912.1%
Passing downs0.5982.3934.8%
Tariq Thomas · RBUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.333 · Total 0.998
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.3330.9982.7%
Pass-0.354-0.3542.2%
Rush0.6761.3523.5%
1st down0.6761.3524.0%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down-0.354-0.3545.0%
Standard downs0.6761.3522.4%
Passing downs-0.354-0.3543.6%
Andrew Chavez · RBUsage 2.2% · Avg PPA 0.006 · Total 0.031
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.0060.0312.2%
Pass-0.064-0.1281.7%
Rush0.0530.1592.9%
1st down0.1180.4713.9%
2nd down-0.441-0.4411.3%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.1180.4712.5%
Passing downs-0.441-0.4411.5%
Brock Lium · TEUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA -5.353 · Total -5.353
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-5.353-5.3531.5%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush-5.353-5.3532.9%
1st down-5.353-5.3533.2%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-5.353-5.3532.2%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Jordan Malau'ulu · WRUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA 0.905 · Total 2.714
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.9052.7141.5%
Pass1.6043.2082.0%
Rush-0.494-0.4941.0%
1st down0.6170.6171.1%
2nd down1.0482.0973.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.6170.6170.7%
Passing downs1.0482.0973.5%
Keynan Cotton · WRUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA -0.018 · Total -0.018
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.018-0.0181.5%
Pass-0.018-0.0183.3%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down-0.018-0.01810.0%
Standard downs—0.0000.0%
Passing downs-0.018-0.0187.1%
Dallas Gaius-Anyaegbu · TEUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 0.748 · Total 1.495
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.7481.4951.4%
Pass0.7481.4952.9%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.7481.4953.3%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.7481.4952.1%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Darrian Anderson · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -0.349 · Total -0.349
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.349-0.3491.4%
Pass-0.349-0.3493.3%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.349-0.3493.2%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.349-0.3492.4%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Jaylen Garrison · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 0.784 · Total 0.784
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.7840.7841.4%
Pass0.7840.7842.9%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down0.7840.7847.7%
Standard downs0.7840.7842.0%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Where Fresno State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Offense PPA/playOffense PPA/play: 0.111 (39th percentile; 138 teams)39thOffense success rateOffense success rate: 0.400 (22nd percentile; 138 teams)22ndOffense explosivenessOffense explosiveness: 1.280 (73rd percentile; 138 teams)73rdOffense pass PPA/playOffense pass PPA/play: 0.302 (70th percentile; 138 teams)70thOffense rush PPA/playOffense rush PPA/play: 0.002 (17th percentile; 138 teams)17thDefense PPA/playDefense PPA/play: 0.036 (63rd percentile; 138 teams)63rdDefense success rateDefense success rate: 0.419 (39th percentile; 138 teams)39thDefense explosivenessDefense explosiveness: 1.181 (67th percentile; 138 teams)67thDefense havoc createdDefense havoc created: 0.152 (41st percentile; 138 teams)41st
Values and percentiles
Fresno State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
MetricValuePercentileBetter
Offense PPA/play0.11139th138 teamshigher
Offense success rate0.40022nd138 teamshigher
Offense explosiveness1.28073rd138 teamshigher
Offense pass PPA/play0.30270th138 teamshigher
Offense rush PPA/play0.00217th138 teamshigher
Defense PPA/play0.03663rd138 teamslower
Defense success rate0.41939th138 teamslower
Defense explosiveness1.18167th138 teamslower
Defense havoc created0.15241st138 teamshigher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 97% of 201 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.0 yards (25th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.6 per completion. Completion 63.2%, 7.4 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.36.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
SideActualExpectedCPOE (pp)Qualifying / all attempts
Offense62.4%61.9%+0.5194 / 201
Defense allowed63.3%61.4%+1.8207 / 208

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses
Air Force: ADOT 13.1, YAC 3.9Akron: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.5Alabama: ADOT 9.9, YAC 5.3App State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 5.5Arizona: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.6Arizona State: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Arkansas: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.7Arkansas State: ADOT 9.0, YAC 5.3Army: ADOT 12.7, YAC 3.7Auburn: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.9BYU: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.4Ball State: ADOT 7.5, YAC 5.0Baylor: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.8Boise State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.3Boston College: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.0Bowling Green: ADOT 6.5, YAC 5.9Buffalo: ADOT 9.5, YAC 2.0California: ADOT 6.1, YAC 5.9Central Michigan: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.6Charlotte: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.6Cincinnati: ADOT 7.1, YAC 6.5Clemson: ADOT 6.7, YAC 5.7Coastal Carolina: ADOT 11.2, YAC 5.6Colorado: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.1Colorado State: ADOT 5.1, YAC 8.8Delaware: ADOT 9.4, YAC 6.3Duke: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.4East Carolina: ADOT 8.4, YAC 6.2Eastern Michigan: ADOT 7.4, YAC 5.4Florida: ADOT 7.2, YAC 6.9Florida Atlantic: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.7Florida International: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.3Florida State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 8.5Georgia: ADOT 8.3, YAC 7.6Georgia Southern: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.1Georgia State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.5Georgia Tech: ADOT 7.3, YAC 5.0Hawai'i: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.2Houston: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.7Illinois: ADOT 9.7, YAC 4.0Indiana: ADOT 11.4, YAC 5.2Iowa: ADOT 7.7, YAC 6.2Iowa State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Jacksonville State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.8James Madison: ADOT 8.6, YAC 4.8Kansas: ADOT 12.6, YAC 5.3Kansas State: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.3Kennesaw State: ADOT 6.8, YAC 4.9Kent State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 4.9Kentucky: ADOT 6.7, YAC 7.0LSU: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Liberty: ADOT 11.3, YAC 6.2Louisiana: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Louisiana Tech: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.6Louisville: ADOT 9.0, YAC 7.7Marshall: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.5Maryland: ADOT 7.0, YAC 6.2Massachusetts: ADOT 10.1, YAC 4.2Memphis: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.7Miami: ADOT 7.3, YAC 7.2Miami (OH): ADOT 10.5, YAC 6.6Michigan: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.6Michigan State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 4.1Middle Tennessee: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.5Minnesota: ADOT 6.4, YAC 6.3Mississippi State: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.8Missouri: ADOT 10.4, YAC 5.2Missouri State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 5.7NC State: ADOT 8.7, YAC 5.4Navy: ADOT 14.2, YAC 8.6Nebraska: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.8Nevada: ADOT 7.9, YAC 6.3New Mexico: ADOT 10.4, YAC 6.0New Mexico State: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.3North Carolina: ADOT 7.8, YAC 6.3North Dakota State: ADOT 10.6, YAC 4.6North Texas: ADOT 9.2, YAC 6.0Northern Illinois: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Northwestern: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.5Notre Dame: ADOT 9.6, YAC 5.0Ohio: ADOT 9.4, YAC 5.6Ohio State: ADOT 11.0, YAC 4.9Oklahoma: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.5Oklahoma State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.2Old Dominion: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.1Ole Miss: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.3Oregon: ADOT 7.5, YAC 6.4Oregon State: ADOT 9.1, YAC 8.3Penn State: ADOT 9.7, YAC 5.0Pittsburgh: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.6Purdue: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Rice: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.9Rutgers: ADOT 10.9, YAC 5.2SMU: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.9Sacramento State: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.3Sam Houston: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.5San Diego State: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.3San José State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 3.8South Alabama: ADOT 10.1, YAC 5.2South Carolina: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.9South Florida: ADOT 8.2, YAC 6.1Southern Miss: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.0Stanford: ADOT 8.9, YAC 4.6Syracuse: ADOT 9.3, YAC 5.7TCU: ADOT 9.0, YAC 4.7Temple: ADOT 8.7, YAC 7.1Tennessee: ADOT 6.9, YAC 6.8Texas: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.2Texas A&M: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.3Texas State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.5Texas Tech: ADOT 8.8, YAC 4.7Toledo: ADOT 8.8, YAC 6.2Troy: ADOT 8.9, YAC 6.5Tulane: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.0Tulsa: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.7UAB: ADOT 10.0, YAC 4.3UCF: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.5UCLA: ADOT 9.0, YAC 6.0UConn: ADOT 10.8, YAC 6.5UL Monroe: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.7UNLV: ADOT 10.3, YAC 4.0USC: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0UTEP: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.2UTSA: ADOT 6.6, YAC 5.8Utah: ADOT 10.0, YAC 5.6Utah State: ADOT 9.8, YAC 4.7Vanderbilt: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.1Virginia: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.9Virginia Tech: ADOT 6.5, YAC 7.0Wake Forest: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.0Washington: ADOT 8.1, YAC 6.4Washington State: ADOT 7.4, YAC 3.7West Virginia: ADOT 13.8, YAC 8.5Western Kentucky: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.4Western Michigan: ADOT 8.1, YAC 5.3Wisconsin: ADOT 6.9, YAC 7.4Wyoming: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.6Fresno State: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.6Average depth of target (yards) →Yards after catch per completion →

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Fresno State.

Target mix by zone, Fresno State offense
Short left31% · 60Short middle13% · 26Short right44% · 85Deep left4% · 8Deep middle2% · 3Deep right6% · 12

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail
Fresno State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
SideAttemptsChartedADOTYACComp %PPACPOECPOE att
Passing offense20197%8.05.663.2%0.36+0.5 pp194
Passing defense208100%8.55.263.5%0.12+1.8 pp207

Rushing production

SideAttemptsYards / carrySuccessPPALine yards / rushSecond-level yards / rushOpen-field yards / rushStuff ratePower success
Offense2224.540.4%0.072.901.001.6020.2%58.3%
Defense allowed2574.744.0%0.073.001.001.5018.3%71.9%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

SideYards recordedIndividualUnattributedSacksKneelsTeam rushesMultiple carriersDirection located / eligible
Offense220 / 2222121011880202 / 203 · 99.5%
Defense allowed253 / 2572461113330239 / 241 · 99.2%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +0.5 pp. 7 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

-15.00.616.1W1W1 vs USC: -15.0 ppW2W2 vs Sacramento State: +16.1 ppW3W3 vs San José State: -11.3 ppW4W4 vs Rice: +3.1 ppW5W5 vs Washington State: +14.3 ppW6W6 vs Boise State: -5.5 ppW7W7 vs San Diego State: -6.3 pp

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage
WeekOpponentPass attCPOE attComp %*Expected %*CPOEADOTPass PPARush attRush yds/carryRush PPA
W1USC151546.7%61.6%-15.0 pp7.20.01262.2-0.23
W2Sacramento State302588.0%71.9%+16.1 pp2.90.83335.90.16
W3San José State292850.0%61.3%-11.3 pp8.80.35384.3-0.10
W4Rice343464.7%61.6%+3.1 pp6.60.26347.30.41
W5Washington State333372.7%58.4%+14.3 pp11.10.41353.7-0.17
W6Boise State353455.9%61.3%-5.5 pp7.80.51164.30.18
W7San Diego State252552.0%58.3%-6.3 pp11.0-0.08403.40.23

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

29 punts · 41.8 gross yards/punt · 40.5 net yards/punt

14 inside the 20 · 0 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 29/29 punts. Known net yards: 22/29 punts.

Our punt returns

10 returns · 9.5 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 10/10 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games
GamePuntsGross yd/puntNet yd/puntKnown net yards
Week 7 · San Diego State542.237.45/5
Week 6 · Boise State341.741.73/3
Week 5 · Washington State540.440.73/5
Week 4 · Rice350.747.33/3
Week 3 · San José State740.943.34/7
Team style
Rating history