Duke

2026 season

ACC

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Duke's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 45 across 8 systems; best 33, worst 47, so they disagree by 14 places.

Lab EPA: #46; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #45; down 12026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #47; up 32026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #40; up 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #42; up 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #33; no change · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #45; no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #45; up 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #43 of 138
Schedule strength: #86 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #29 of 138
Game control: #59 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #45 of 138
Offense: #51 of 138
Defense: #34 of 138
Special teams: #73 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Duke · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

5-2 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.057 net EPA/play

#46

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

4.78 points

#45 · Down 1 place since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +10.06 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -4.39, schedule #90 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -1.04. That is worth +5.67 on its own; the preseason prior of +2.06 still carries 25% of the weight, giving +4.78.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Duke · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · Tulane home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401858209	+14.00 → +14.00	-2.50	0.7637	9.40%	-2.97	1.081	-0.279	0.801
Week 2 · Illinois away · 2026-09-12 · ID 401858217	+4.00 → +4.00	+2.50	0.7937	9.77%	+3.72	0.635	0.364	0.998
Week 3 · Stanford home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858231	+28.00 → +28.00	-2.50	0.8249	10.15%	-7.74	2.588	-0.786	1.802
Week 4 · William & Mary home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401858244	+55.00 → +35.00	-2.50	0.8572	10.55%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	3.428	-2.637	0.791
Week 6 · Georgia Tech away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401858255	-3.00 → -3.00	+2.50	0.9259	11.39%	-5.43	-0.057	-0.619	-0.676
Week 7 · North Carolina home · 2026-10-17 · ID 401858266	-4.00 → -4.00	-2.50	0.9622	11.84%	+2.84	-0.770	0.336	-0.433
Week 8 · Virginia away · 2026-10-23 · ID 401858271	+3.00 → +3.00	+2.50	1.0000	12.30%	+2.49	0.677	0.307	0.984

Game terms +4.27 points; prior term +0.51 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +4.78 points. The preseason prior is +2.06 with 24.61% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

6.8 SP+ points

#47 · Up 3 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

9.03 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#33 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 0.63 on 392 plays; defense -8.40 on 363 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Duke 1 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 5-2 · conf 2-2 · home 3-1 · away 2-1 · expected wins 5.2
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 5-2 ATS (+5.4 avg) · 2025: 8-6 ATS (+0.5 avg)
Head coach: Manny Diaz · hired 2023-12-07 · 18-9 over 3 captured seasons
Recruiting classes: 2024 #61 (184 pts) · 2025 #30 (221 pts) · 2026 #71 (189 pts)
Returning: 17% of production · 22% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 4% 0%
Receiving 20% 23%
Rushing 43% 49%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	4%	0%
Receiving	20%	23%
Rushing	43%	49%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	16	3.00	0.8636	13.82
Defensive Line	17	3.18	0.8742	14.86
Linebacker	8	3.00	0.8628	6.90
Offensive Line	14	3.07	0.8574	12.00
Quarterback	3	3.00	0.8756	2.63
Receiver	12	3.00	0.8635	10.36
Running Back	5	3.20	0.8772	4.39
Special Teams	11	3.18	0.8593	9.45

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Walker Eget · QB CFBD athlete 4694149. San José State (2021–2025); Duke (2026–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.292	180	42.4%	Pass 89.5% · Rush 2.4% 1st 34.1% · 2nd 46.5% · 3rd 55.2% Standard downs 37.8% · Passing downs 52.3%	2021: 3★ · 0.8415
Nate Sheppard · RB CFBD athlete 5164332. Duke (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.224	147	38.0%	Pass 15.9% · Rush 59.4% 1st 45.0% · 2nd 36.5% · 3rd 27.1% Standard downs 41.8% · Passing downs 30.1%	2025: 4★ · 0.8925
CJ Campbell · RB CFBD athlete 4873588. Florida State (2021–2023); Duke (2026–2026); Rutgers (2025–2025); Florida Atlantic (2024–2024)	Rushing WEPA	0.025	42	11.6%	Pass 2.7% · Rush 20.1% 1st 11.8% · 2nd 10.1% · 3rd 12.5% Standard downs 11.3% · Passing downs 12.4%	Not linked
Gavin Strange · PK CFBD athlete 5291821. Duke (2026–2026)	Kicker PAAR	0.290	6	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Cosme Salas · PK CFBD athlete 5218791. Duke (2024–2026)	Kicker PAAR	-0.120	5	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Blake Rohrer · WR CFBD athlete 5372137. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.4%	Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Brody Keefe · WR CFBD athlete 5161004. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.5%	Pass 12.1% · Rush 0.0% 1st 6.6% · 2nd 5.4% · 3rd 8.7% Standard downs 5.7% · Passing downs 8.3%	Not linked
CJ Givers · RB CFBD athlete 5290560. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.1%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 8.1% 1st 2.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.7% Standard downs 5.5% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Dan Mahan · QB CFBD athlete 5185699. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.0%	Pass 7.3% · Rush 3.2% 1st 4.7% · 2nd 3.8% · 3rd 7.3% Standard downs 3.7% · Passing downs 7.8%	Not linked
Jaivon Solomon · WR CFBD athlete 5200108. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.6%	Pass 9.3% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.3% · 2nd 5.2% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 6.5%	Not linked
Jake Taylor · TE CFBD athlete 3949586. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.5%	Pass 7.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.9% · 2nd 3.8% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.6% · Passing downs 3.2%	Not linked
Jared Richardson · WR CFBD athlete 5084409. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.9%	Pass 12.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 4.9% · 2nd 6.5% · 3rd 8.0% Standard downs 5.9% · Passing downs 5.8%	Not linked
Javen Nicholas · WR CFBD athlete 5081131. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.1%	Pass 4.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 6.9% Standard downs 1.0% · Passing downs 4.7%	Not linked
Jayden Moore · WR CFBD athlete 5079610. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.7%	Pass 8.5% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.2% · 2nd 4.2% · 3rd 3.5% Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 6.7%	Not linked
Jayvian Tanelus · RB CFBD athlete 5272781. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	11.0%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 19.0% 1st 15.5% · 2nd 8.5% · 3rd 4.2% Standard downs 13.9% · Passing downs 2.7%	Not linked
Jeremiah Hasley · TE CFBD athlete 4869728. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	8.3%	Pass 18.2% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.7% · 2nd 8.8% · 3rd 12.5% Standard downs 7.3% · Passing downs 10.5%	Not linked
Jonah Burton · WR CFBD athlete 4879192. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.2%	Pass 13.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.7% · 2nd 5.7% · 3rd 9.4% Standard downs 4.9% · Passing downs 9.2%	Not linked
Kavon Conciauro · WR CFBD athlete 5266901. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.7%	Pass 5.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 7.7% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 5.6%	Not linked
Kavon Simmons · WR CFBD athlete 5216844. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.8%	Pass 6.2% · Rush 0.5% 1st 1.9% · 2nd 2.6% · 3rd 5.9% Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 3.7%	Not linked
Nate Kurisky · TE CFBD athlete 4816323. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.9%	Pass 7.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 9.8% · 3rd 3.2% Standard downs 0.9% · Passing downs 10.9%	Not linked
Paxon Kettering · WR CFBD athlete 5218795. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.4%	Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Terry Walker III · QB CFBD athlete 5211205. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	8.2%	Pass 11.8% · Rush 5.4% 1st 2.8% · 2nd 18.2% · 3rd 7.7% Standard downs 9.1% · Passing downs 5.6%	Not linked
Wilhelm Daal · RB CFBD athlete 5094035. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.1%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 8.1% 1st 2.8% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 7.7% Standard downs 5.5% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 19 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Ari Patu · QB	North Alabama	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Blaine Hipa · QB	Princeton	2026-03-23	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Braden Miller · OT	California	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8800	Immediate
CJ Campbell Jr. · RB	Rutgers	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Che Ojarikre · S	Stanford	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Dakota Quinonez · DL	Dartmouth	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Dylan Flowers · CB	Western Kentucky	2026-01-03	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Evan Smith · CB	Northwestern	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jared Richardson · WR	Pennsylvania	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Javen Nicholas · WR	Charlotte	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Jon Morris · LB	UConn	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Jonah Burton · WR	Idaho State	2026-03-23	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Kyon Loud · CB	Montana	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Nate Kurisky · TE	Louisville	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Nick Del Grande · OT	Coastal Carolina	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Owen Wafle · DL	Penn State	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Patrick Smith-Young · S	North Texas	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Walker Eget · QB	San José State	2026-01-26	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Wilhelm Daal II · RB	Yale	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate

Outgoing · 17 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Chase Tyler · WR	Wake Forest	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Cooper Barkate · WR	Miami	2026-01-22	4★ / 0.9400	Immediate
Darian Mensah · QB	Miami	2026-01-16	4★ / 0.9400	Immediate
Desmond Aladuge · DL	UConn	2026-01-09	3★ / —	Immediate
Henry Belin IV · QB	Missouri State	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Jack Small · OT	Delaware	2026-01-23	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Kenzy Paul · S	Not reported	2025-12-19	3★ / —	Immediate
Kyren Condoll · CB	Rice	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Ma'Khi Jones · S	Florida State	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8700	Immediate
Maliki Wright · S	Kennesaw State	2026-01-22	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Moussa Kane · CB	UConn	2026-01-24	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Peyton Jones · RB	Liberty	2026-01-09	3★ / —	Immediate
Que'Sean Brown · WR	Virginia Tech	2026-01-10	4★ / 0.9300	Immediate
Terry Moore · S	Ohio State	2026-01-12	4★ / 0.9400	Immediate
Terry Simmons · DL	South Florida	2026-01-06	3★ / —	Immediate
Vance Bolyard · TE	Tulane	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Vontae Floyd · CB	Florida International	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Duke. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Manny Diaz · career 39–24 across 6 seasons and 2 schools

Tenure timeline · 21 appointments

2024–present · Manny Diaz · active at capture
18–9 · 27 attributed games · 3 seasons
Hired 2023-12-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2023–2023 · Trooper Taylor · interim
1–0 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2023-11-27. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2022–2023 · Mike Elko
16–9 · 25 attributed games · 2 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2021-12-10. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2008–2021 · David Cutcliffe
77–97 · 174 attributed games · 14 seasons
Hired 2007-12-05. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2003–2007 · Ted Roof
6–45 · 51 attributed games · 5 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2003-12-06. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1999–2003 · Carl Franks
7–45 · 52 attributed games · 5 seasons · incomplete attribution
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1994–1998 · Fred Goldsmith
17–39 · 56 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1990–1993 · Barry Wilson
13–30–1 · 44 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1987–1989 · Steve Spurrier
20–13–1 · 34 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1983–1986 · Steve Sloan
13–31 · 44 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1979–1982 · Red Wilson
16–27–1 · 44 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1971–1978 · Mike McGee
37–47–4 · 88 attributed games · 8 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1966–1970 · Tom Harp
22–28–1 · 51 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1951–1965 · Bill Murray
93–51–9 · 153 attributed games · 15 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1946–1950 · Wallace Wade
25–17–4 · 46 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1931–1941 · Wallace Wade
85–19–3 · 107 attributed games · 11 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1926–1930 · Jimmy DeHart
24–23–2 · 49 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1925–1925 · James Herron
4–5 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1924–1924 · Howard Jones
4–5 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1923–1923 · S.M. Alexander
5–4 · 9 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1922–1922 · Herman Steiner
7–2–1 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Manny Diaz · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	6.5	5.9	71	—
2025 · Manny Diaz	9–5	6–2	1–0	6.6	5.2	30	—
2024 · Manny Diaz	9–4	5–3	0–1	5.6	1.6	61	—
2023 · Mike Elko · incomplete attribution	7–5	—	—	9.4	9.8	56	—
2023 · Trooper Taylor · incomplete attribution	1–0	—	—	9.4	9.8	56	—
2022 · Mike Elko	9–4	5–3	1–0	5	7	52	—
2021 · David Cutcliffe	3–9	0–8	0–0	-13.5	-15.6	58	—
2020 · David Cutcliffe	2–9	1–9	0–0	-4.2	—	61	—
2019 · David Cutcliffe	5–7	3–5	0–0	-1.8	-2.2	49	—
2018 · David Cutcliffe	8–5	3–5	1–0	5	6.4	63	—
2017 · David Cutcliffe	7–6	3–5	1–0	6.1	8.3	47	—
2016 · David Cutcliffe	4–8	1–7	0–0	-2.8	-1	33	—
2015 · David Cutcliffe	8–5	4–4	1–0	3.4	3	52	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 23:11:45 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	28 / 138	80.3	34 / 138	75.9
Success rate	73 / 138	47.4	40 / 138	71.5
Explosiveness	18 / 138	87.6	31 / 138	78.1
Standard-down success	95 / 138	31.4	T70 / 138	49.3
Passing-down success	30 / 138	78.8	4 / 138	97.8
Pass PPA	32 / 138	77.4	63 / 138	54.7
Rush PPA	43 / 138	69.3	16 / 138	89.1
Pass explosiveness	49 / 138	65.0	21 / 138	85.4
Rush explosiveness	15 / 138	89.8	29 / 138	79.6
Line yards	42 / 138	70.1	28 / 138	80.3
Second-level yards	18 / 138	87.6	12 / 138	92.0
Open-field yards	55 / 138	60.6	55 / 138	60.6
Stuff rate	35 / 138	75.2	50 / 138	64.2
Power success	T86 / 138	37.6	T49 / 138	64.2
Havoc	T11 / 138	92.3	68 / 138	51.1
Front-seven havoc	6 / 138	96.4	T52 / 138	61.7
DB havoc	T74 / 138	44.2	T76 / 138	44.2
Points / opportunity	43 / 138	69.3	35 / 138	75.2
Average field position	T34 / 138	74.8	T11 / 138	91.6
Field-position expected points	T35 / 138	74.8	15 / 138	89.8

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Walker Eget · QBUsage 42.4% · Avg PPA 0.314 · Total 64.052

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.314	64.052	42.4%
Pass	0.350	68.859	89.5%
Rush	-0.398	-2.387	2.4%
1st down	0.092	6.595	34.1%
2nd down	0.395	29.193	46.5%
3rd down	0.530	28.074	55.2%
Standard downs	0.127	15.792	37.8%
Passing downs	0.603	48.260	52.3%

Nate Sheppard · RBUsage 38.0% · Avg PPA 0.335 · Total 61.293

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.335	61.293	38.0%
Pass	0.687	24.046	15.9%
Rush	0.252	37.247	59.4%
1st down	0.188	17.839	45.0%
2nd down	0.260	15.064	36.5%
3rd down	0.777	20.192	27.1%
Standard downs	0.355	48.636	41.8%
Passing downs	0.275	12.656	30.1%

CJ Campbell · RBUsage 11.6% · Avg PPA -0.125 · Total -7.021

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.125	-7.021	11.6%
Pass	-0.289	-1.731	2.7%
Rush	-0.106	-5.290	20.1%
1st down	-0.042	-1.053	11.8%
2nd down	0.087	1.386	10.1%
3rd down	0.328	3.933	12.5%
Standard downs	-0.324	-12.003	11.3%
Passing downs	0.262	4.982	12.4%

Jayvian Tanelus · RBUsage 11.0% · Avg PPA 0.335 · Total 5.362

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.335	5.362	11.0%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.335	5.362	19.0%
1st down	0.453	4.988	15.5%
2nd down	-0.212	-0.847	8.5%
3rd down	1.221	1.221	4.2%
Standard downs	0.373	5.591	13.9%
Passing downs	-0.229	-0.229	2.7%

Jeremiah Hasley · TEUsage 8.3% · Avg PPA 0.372 · Total 14.875

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.372	14.875	8.3%
Pass	0.372	14.875	18.2%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.043	-0.521	5.7%
2nd down	0.407	5.696	8.8%
3rd down	0.398	4.776	12.5%
Standard downs	0.242	5.816	7.3%
Passing downs	0.566	9.059	10.5%

Terry Walker III · QBUsage 8.2% · Avg PPA 0.364 · Total 2.184

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.364	2.184	8.2%
Pass	0.773	3.093	11.8%
Rush	-0.454	-0.909	5.4%
1st down	-0.333	-0.333	2.8%
2nd down	0.319	1.275	18.2%
3rd down	1.242	1.242	7.7%
Standard downs	0.188	0.942	9.1%
Passing downs	1.242	1.242	5.6%

Brody Keefe · WRUsage 6.5% · Avg PPA 0.681 · Total 5.446

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.681	5.446	6.5%
Pass	0.681	5.446	12.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.459	-1.835	6.6%
2nd down	2.107	4.214	5.4%
3rd down	1.533	3.067	8.7%
Standard downs	-0.146	-0.732	5.7%
Passing downs	2.059	6.178	8.3%

Jonah Burton · WRUsage 6.2% · Avg PPA 0.595 · Total 17.862

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.595	17.862	6.2%
Pass	0.595	17.862	13.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.421	5.049	5.7%
2nd down	0.389	3.503	5.7%
3rd down	1.034	9.310	9.4%
Standard downs	0.343	5.489	4.9%
Passing downs	0.884	12.373	9.2%

Jared Richardson · WRUsage 5.9% · Avg PPA 0.566 · Total 14.148

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.566	14.148	5.9%
Pass	0.566	14.148	12.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.156	1.404	4.9%
2nd down	0.669	6.017	6.5%
3rd down	0.961	6.728	8.0%
Standard downs	0.218	3.709	5.9%
Passing downs	1.305	10.440	5.8%

Dan Mahan · QBUsage 5.0% · Avg PPA 0.304 · Total 7.305

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.304	7.305	5.0%
Pass	0.356	5.694	7.3%
Rush	0.201	1.612	3.2%
1st down	0.508	5.084	4.7%
2nd down	0.195	1.171	3.8%
3rd down	0.576	4.029	7.3%
Standard downs	0.397	4.767	3.7%
Passing downs	0.212	2.538	7.8%

Jaivon Solomon · WRUsage 4.6% · Avg PPA 0.847 · Total 13.557

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.847	13.557	4.6%
Pass	0.847	13.557	9.3%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.524	2.621	3.3%
2nd down	0.860	5.162	5.2%
3rd down	1.155	5.774	7.1%
Standard downs	0.607	5.466	3.8%
Passing downs	1.156	8.091	6.5%

CJ Givers · RBUsage 4.1% · Avg PPA 1.209 · Total 3.628

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.209	3.628	4.1%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	1.209	3.628	8.1%
1st down	0.245	0.245	2.8%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.484	-0.484	7.7%
Standard downs	1.209	3.628	5.5%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Wilhelm Daal · RBUsage 4.1% · Avg PPA -0.377 · Total -1.131

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.377	-1.131	4.1%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	-0.377	-1.131	8.1%
1st down	-0.140	-0.140	2.8%
2nd down	-0.516	-0.516	4.5%
3rd down	-0.475	-0.475	7.7%
Standard downs	-0.377	-1.131	5.5%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Nate Kurisky · TEUsage 3.9% · Avg PPA 0.420 · Total 2.519

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.420	2.519	3.9%
Pass	0.420	2.519	7.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	0.610	3.052	9.8%
3rd down	-0.532	-0.532	3.2%
Standard downs	-1.000	-1.000	0.9%
Passing downs	0.704	3.520	10.9%

Jayden Moore · WRUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA 0.060 · Total 0.955

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.060	0.955	3.7%
Pass	0.060	0.955	8.5%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.559	-3.356	3.2%
2nd down	1.098	6.586	4.2%
3rd down	0.234	0.703	3.5%
Standard downs	-0.328	-2.294	2.4%
Passing downs	0.361	3.248	6.7%

Jake Taylor · TEUsage 3.5% · Avg PPA -0.603 · Total -8.444

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.603	-8.444	3.5%
Pass	-0.603	-8.444	7.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.180	1.263	3.9%
2nd down	-0.320	-1.600	3.8%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.479	-4.789	3.6%
Passing downs	-0.914	-3.656	3.2%

Kavon Simmons · WRUsage 2.8% · Avg PPA 0.663 · Total 6.629

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.663	6.629	2.8%
Pass	0.463	4.171	6.2%
Rush	2.458	2.458	0.5%
1st down	0.424	1.273	1.9%
2nd down	1.133	3.400	2.6%
3rd down	0.489	1.957	5.9%
Standard downs	0.456	2.736	2.4%
Passing downs	0.973	3.894	3.7%

Kavon Conciauro · WRUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA 0.396 · Total 0.791

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.396	0.791	2.7%
Pass	0.396	0.791	5.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-0.451	-0.451	4.5%
3rd down	1.242	1.242	7.7%
Standard downs	-0.451	-0.451	1.8%
Passing downs	1.242	1.242	5.6%

Javen Nicholas · WRUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA -0.127 · Total -0.382

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.127	-0.382	2.1%
Pass	-0.127	-0.382	4.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.805	-0.805	1.6%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	0.211	0.423	6.9%
Standard downs	-0.805	-0.805	1.0%
Passing downs	0.211	0.423	4.7%

Blake Rohrer · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -0.835 · Total -0.835

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.835	-0.835	1.4%
Pass	-0.835	-0.835	2.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-0.835	-0.835	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.835	-0.835	1.8%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Paxon Kettering · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 3.137 · Total 3.137

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	3.137	3.137	1.4%
Pass	3.137	3.137	2.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	3.137	3.137	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	3.137	3.137	1.8%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Where Duke sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Duke metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.234	80th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.428	47th138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.331	88th138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.340	77th138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	0.152	69th138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.011	76th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.380	72nd138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.152	78th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.160	51st138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 98% of 222 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.3 yards (35th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 6.4 per completion. Completion 59.9%, 7.5 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.36.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	59.2%	61.2%	-1.9	184 / 222
Defense allowed	63.3%	62.8%	+0.5	180 / 202

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Duke.

Target mix by zone, Duke offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Duke passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	222	98%	8.3	6.4	59.9%	0.36	-1.9 pp	184
Passing defense	202	100%	7.4	5.1	62.4%	0.21	+0.5 pp	180

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	251	5.3	41.4%	0.19	3.20	1.20	1.30	13.5%	70.4%
Defense allowed	226	3.4	36.1%	-0.06	2.70	0.80	0.80	18.3%	68.2%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	243 / 251	238	13	2	5	5	0	244 / 244 · 100.0%
Defense allowed	222 / 226	220	6	16	2	2	0	208 / 208 · 100.0%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -1.9 pp. 6 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	Tulane	28	27	48.1%	62.8%	-14.7 pp	6.0	-0.30	49	5.1	0.09
W2	Illinois	22	22	68.2%	60.0%	+8.2 pp	9.0	0.76	35	4.2	0.31
W3	Stanford	24	24	58.3%	56.7%	+1.6 pp	11.0	0.57	47	5.6	0.34
W4	William & Mary	34	0	—	—	—	9.4	0.71	37	7.7	0.43
W6	Georgia Tech	42	41	63.4%	62.9%	+0.5 pp	7.3	0.30	35	4.5	0.23
W7	North Carolina	41	39	61.5%	65.7%	-4.2 pp	5.0	0.38	29	5.2	-0.26
W8	Virginia	31	31	54.8%	56.0%	-1.1 pp	12.2	0.17	19	3.7	-0.04

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

27 punts · 45.9 gross yards/punt · 32.8 net yards/punt

6 inside the 20 · 3 touchbacks · 1 blocked

Known gross yards: 27/27 punts. Known net yards: 17/27 punts.

Our punt returns

10 returns · 13.4 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 1 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 10/10 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 8 · Virginia	6	42.2	35.0	4/6
Week 7 · North Carolina	4	30.5	27.0	4/4
Week 6 · Georgia Tech	4	49.0	17.0	1/4
Week 4 · William & Mary	1	57.0	—	0/1
Week 3 · Stanford	5	49.4	36.3	4/5

Team style

Rating history