Buffalo

2026 season

Mid-American

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Buffalo's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 116.5 across 8 systems; best 97, worst 122, so they disagree by 25 places.

Lab EPA: #101; Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #121; down 22026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #118; no change2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #97; no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #115; down 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #122; down 4 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #121; up 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #101; down 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #90 of 138
Schedule strength: #114 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #135 of 138
Game control: #118 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #124 of 138
Offense: #126 of 138
Defense: #116 of 138
Special teams: #26 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Buffalo · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

5-3 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

-0.074 net EPA/play

#101

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

-9.25 points

#121 · Down 2 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -2.74 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -7.98, schedule #126 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 2 FCS opponents count at −25; FBS opponents alone average -2.87. That is worth -10.72 on its own; the preseason prior of -4.11 still carries 22% of the weight, giving -9.25.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Buffalo · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · UAlbany home · 2026-09-03 · ID 401866409	+4.00 → +4.00	-2.50	0.7637	8.47%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	0.127	-2.117	-1.990
Week 2 · Florida International away · 2026-09-12 · ID 401866414	-13.00 → -13.00	+2.50	0.7937	8.80%	-4.22	-0.924	-0.371	-1.295
Week 3 · Penn State away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401858456	-42.00 → -35.00	+2.50	0.8249	9.15%	+7.11	-2.973	0.650	-2.322
Week 4 · Robert Morris home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401866426	+3.00 → +3.00	-2.50	0.8572	9.51%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	0.048	-2.376	-2.329
Week 5 · Western Michigan home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401866432	-3.00 → -3.00	-2.50	0.8909	9.88%	+0.84	-0.543	0.083	-0.461
Week 6 · Toledo away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401866437	+15.00 → +15.00	+2.50	0.9259	10.27%	+1.38	1.797	0.142	1.939
Week 7 · Massachusetts home · 2026-10-17 · ID 401866442	+7.00 → +1.00 (OT)	-2.50	0.9622	10.67%	-8.38	-0.160	-0.894	-1.054
Week 8 · Bowling Green home · 2026-10-24 · ID 401866448	+7.00 → +7.00	-2.50	1.0000	11.09%	-11.98	0.499	-1.328	-0.829

Game terms -8.34 points; prior term -0.91 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -9.25 points. The preseason prior is -4.11 with 22.18% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.7 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

-12.0 SP+ points

#118 · Rank unchanged

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

-14.62 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#122 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -9.30 on 385 plays; defense 5.32 on 368 plays.

2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Buffalo 20 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 5-3 · conf 3-1 · home 4-1 · away 1-2 · expected wins 4.7
Polls (Week 9): unranked
CFP latest: not published
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 3-4-1 ATS (+0.3 avg) · 2025: 4-8 ATS (-5.4 avg)
Head coach: Pete Lembo · hired 2024-01-21 · 14-11 over 3 captured seasons
Recruiting classes: 2024 #110 (141 pts) · 2025 #92 (156 pts) · 2026 #101 (177 pts)
Returning: -1% of production · 15% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 9% 1%
Receiving -7% 34%
Rushing 9% 11%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	9%	1%
Receiving	-7%	34%
Rushing	9%	11%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	8	2.88	0.8232	6.59
Defensive Line	12	2.92	0.8377	10.05
Linebacker	9	3.00	0.8408	7.57
Offensive Line	8	2.88	0.8258	6.61
Quarterback	3	2.67	0.8323	2.50
Receiver	11	3.00	0.8379	9.22
Running Back	5	3.00	0.8444	4.22
Special Teams	6	2.83	0.8199	4.92

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Jason Wright · QB CFBD athlete 5222591. Buffalo (2025–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.189	170	45.6%	Pass 91.4% · Rush 14.1% 1st 41.8% · 2nd 40.0% · 3rd 58.2% Standard downs 41.2% · Passing downs 56.3%	2025: 3★ · 0.8453
Messiah Burch · RB CFBD athlete 5151369. Buffalo (2023–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.183	121	26.8%	Pass 4.3% · Rush 46.0% 1st 33.9% · 2nd 32.5% · 3rd 9.0% Standard downs 29.5% · Passing downs 20.2%	2023: 3★ · 0.8044
Nino Hill · RB CFBD athlete 5216690. Buffalo (2025–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.156	39	13.5%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 22.6% 1st 9.3% · 2nd 14.2% · 3rd 20.4% Standard downs 14.7% · Passing downs 10.2%	2025: 3★ · 0.8304
Oliver Hautanen · PK CFBD athlete 5295440. Buffalo (2025–2026)	Kicker PAAR	0.080	17	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Aaron Clark · WR CFBD athlete 5302819. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.6%	Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 6.7%	Not linked
Chance Morrow · WR CFBD athlete 4869601. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	13.9%	Pass 32.3% · Rush 0.0% 1st 13.6% · 2nd 11.2% · 3rd 18.8% Standard downs 13.1% · Passing downs 15.7%	Not linked
Clint Walker · TE CFBD athlete 5387612. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	6.0%	Pass 13.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 4.1% · 2nd 5.6% · 3rd 9.0% Standard downs 5.0% · Passing downs 8.4%	Not linked
Dwayne Early Jr. · WR CFBD athlete 5295436. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.7%	Pass 10.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.1% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 5.4% Standard downs 4.4% · Passing downs 5.5%	Not linked
Elijah Holmes · QB CFBD athlete 5328086. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	46.4%	Pass 68.1% · Rush 15.5% 1st 39.0% · 2nd 42.9% · 3rd 63.4% Standard downs 43.0% · Passing downs 51.7%	Not linked
Jasaiah Gathings · WR CFBD athlete 4710843. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.8%	Pass 10.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.3% · 2nd 5.8% · 3rd 7.8% Standard downs 4.9% · Passing downs 4.7%	Not linked
Jaylen Andrews · WR CFBD athlete 5387611. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.0%	Pass 11.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.6% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 5.4% Standard downs 4.7% · Passing downs 5.8%	Not linked
Michael Gelatko · TE CFBD athlete 5236367. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.4%	Pass 2.3% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 5.3% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 3.0%	Not linked
Patrick Clacks III · WR CFBD athlete 5084704. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.7%	Pass 10.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.7% · 2nd 3.9% · 3rd 7.8% Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 7.8%	Not linked
Phillip Folmar · WR CFBD athlete 5236366. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.4%	Pass 6.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.3% · 2nd 2.1% · 3rd 5.4% Standard downs 4.2% · Passing downs 2.0%	Not linked
TJ Sabatucci · TE CFBD athlete 5302827. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.6%	Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.1% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Terrance Shelton Jr. · RB CFBD athlete 5150003. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.6%	Pass 4.4% · Rush 0.0% 1st 5.1% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 3.2% · Passing downs 1.7%	Not linked
Trevor Wilson · TE CFBD athlete 5095138. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.3%	Pass 6.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.1% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 4.9% Standard downs 3.6% · Passing downs 2.6%	Not linked
Tyrell Simmons Jr. · WR CFBD athlete 5194667. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.4%	Pass 2.3% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.5% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 3.0%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 16 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Andrew VanSlyke · P	James Madison	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8000	Immediate
Caleb Oliver · EDGE	Wofford	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Elijah Holmes · QB	Wingate	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Joe Crocker · IOL	Baylor	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Joey Cheshire · LB	Cornell	2026-01-19	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Joseph Stoever · LS	Georgia Tech	2026-02-04	— / —	Immediate
Logan Goodwin · EDGE	IU Pennsylvania	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Mason Nickel · DL	Saginaw Valley State	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Nathan Natoli · OT	Bucknell	2026-01-23	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Nino Francavilla · IOL	Miami	2026-01-29	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Sayre Smothers · CB	The Citadel	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Sedrick Vessah · EDGE	California (PA)	2026-01-09	— / —	Immediate
Stantavious Smith · DL	Florida A&M	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Stevie Bracey · LB	Virginia	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Trevor Wilson · TE	Campbell	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Zach Bergmann · LB	Missouri Southern State	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate

Outgoing · 16 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Charles McCartherens · CB	Marshall	2026-01-10	2★ / —	Immediate
Demetrius Ballard · EDGE	Boston College	2026-01-04	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Devin Morgan · DL	Kennesaw State	2026-01-22	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Dion Crawford · LB	Michigan State	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Dylan Drennan · P	Purdue	2026-01-09	— / —	Immediate
Eddie Pleasant III · CB	Marshall	2026-01-11	3★ / —	Immediate
Henry Tabansi · OT	UCF	2026-01-06	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Jalen McNair · S	Virginia	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Junior Poyser · DL	Wisconsin	2026-01-07	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Lamar Sperling · RB	UTEP	2026-02-03	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Marquis Cooper · CB	Not reported	2025-12-27	— / —	Immediate
Mitch Viviano · DL	Not reported	2025-12-31	3★ / —	Immediate
Nik McMillan · WR	Kansas	2026-01-08	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
SaVeon Brown · S	Not reported	2026-01-10	3★ / —	Withdrawn
Shamar Riser-Pressley · EDGE	UConn	2026-01-24	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Victor Snow · WR	NC State	2026-01-05	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Buffalo. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Pete Lembo · career 47–40 across 8 seasons and 2 schools

Tenure timeline · 11 appointments

2024–present · Pete Lembo · active at capture
14–11 · 25 attributed games · 3 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2024-01-21. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2021–2024 · Maurice Linguist
14–23 · 37 attributed games · 4 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2014-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2015–2020 · Lance Leipold
37–33 · 70 attributed games · 6 seasons
Hired 2014-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2014–2014 · Alex Wood
2–2 · 4 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2014-10-13. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2010–2014 · Jeff Quinn
20–36 · 56 attributed games · 5 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2009-12-20. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2006–2009 · Turner Gill
20–30 · 50 attributed games · 4 seasons
Hired 2005-12-16. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2001–2005 · Jim Hofher
8–49 · 57 attributed games · 5 seasons
Hired 2000-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1999–2000 · Craig Cirbus
2–20 · 22 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1969–1970 · Bob Deming
8–12 · 20 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1966–1968 · Doc Urich
18–12 · 30 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1962–1965 · Dick Offenhamer
20–13–4 · 37 attributed games · 4 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Pete Lembo · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	-12.2	-14	101	—
2025 · Pete Lembo	5–7	4–4	0–0	-7.5	-14.2	92	—
2024 · Pete Lembo · incomplete attribution	9–4	—	—	-4	-6.1	110	—
2024 · Maurice Linguist · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	-4	-6.1	110	—
2023 · Maurice Linguist	3–9	3–5	0–0	-15.2	-15.3	84	—
2022 · Maurice Linguist	7–6	5–3	1–0	-9.2	-7.3	81	—
2021 · Maurice Linguist	4–8	2–6	0–0	-9.5	-14.4	98	—
2020 · Lance Leipold	6–1	5–1	1–0	1.4	—	130	25
2019 · Lance Leipold	8–5	5–3	1–0	-2	-1	106	—
2018 · Lance Leipold	10–4	7–2	0–1	-1.1	0.5	136	—
2017 · Lance Leipold	6–6	4–4	0–0	-11.2	-4.3	113	—
2016 · Lance Leipold	2–10	1–7	0–0	-18.8	-22.8	118	—
2015 · Lance Leipold	5–7	3–5	0–0	-10.3	-10.8	118	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:27:59 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	112 / 138	19.0	83 / 138	40.1
Success rate	132 / 138	4.4	53 / 138	62.0
Explosiveness	93 / 138	32.8	69 / 138	50.4
Standard-down success	132 / 138	4.4	95 / 138	31.4
Passing-down success	131 / 138	5.1	7 / 138	95.6
Pass PPA	119 / 138	13.9	92 / 138	33.6
Rush PPA	96 / 138	30.7	56 / 138	59.9
Pass explosiveness	93 / 138	32.8	110 / 138	20.4
Rush explosiveness	68 / 138	51.1	32 / 138	77.4
Line yards	106 / 138	23.4	100 / 138	27.7
Second-level yards	135 / 138	2.2	71 / 138	48.9
Open-field yards	67 / 138	51.8	50 / 138	64.2
Stuff rate	57 / 138	59.1	106 / 138	23.4
Power success	T88 / 138	35.8	T67 / 138	51.1
Havoc	T88 / 138	36.1	T65 / 138	52.6
Front-seven havoc	T84 / 138	37.2	T84 / 138	38.7
DB havoc	T95 / 138	30.7	T33 / 138	75.9
Points / opportunity	94 / 138	32.1	65 / 138	53.3
Average field position	T59 / 138	56.9	T70 / 138	49.3
Field-position expected points	65 / 138	53.3	T73 / 138	46.7

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Elijah Holmes · QBUsage 46.4% · Avg PPA 0.081 · Total 5.758

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.081	5.758	46.4%
Pass	0.107	6.628	68.1%
Rush	-0.097	-0.870	15.5%
1st down	-0.138	-3.175	39.0%
2nd down	0.168	3.529	42.9%
3rd down	0.324	8.427	63.4%
Standard downs	0.057	2.282	43.0%
Passing downs	0.112	3.476	51.7%

Jason Wright · QBUsage 45.6% · Avg PPA 0.035 · Total 8.149

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.035	8.149	45.6%
Pass	0.025	4.765	91.4%
Rush	0.228	9.333	14.1%
1st down	-0.033	-2.891	41.8%
2nd down	-0.279	-19.001	40.0%
3rd down	0.419	29.770	58.2%
Standard downs	-0.014	-2.068	41.2%
Passing downs	0.120	10.217	56.3%

Messiah Burch · RBUsage 26.8% · Avg PPA 0.067 · Total 10.783

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.067	10.783	26.8%
Pass	-0.423	-4.654	4.3%
Rush	0.104	15.437	46.0%
1st down	0.079	6.494	33.9%
2nd down	0.036	2.293	32.5%
3rd down	-0.061	-0.789	9.0%
Standard downs	0.071	8.831	29.5%
Passing downs	0.054	1.952	20.2%

Chance Morrow · WRUsage 13.9% · Avg PPA 0.362 · Total 30.024

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.362	30.024	13.9%
Pass	0.362	30.024	32.3%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.053	1.745	13.6%
2nd down	0.016	0.362	11.2%
3rd down	0.887	23.955	18.8%
Standard downs	0.157	8.627	13.1%
Passing downs	0.764	21.398	15.7%

Nino Hill · RBUsage 13.5% · Avg PPA 0.193 · Total 11.557

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.193	11.557	13.5%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.193	11.557	22.6%
1st down	-0.243	-4.133	9.3%
2nd down	0.022	0.458	14.2%
3rd down	0.631	13.251	20.4%
Standard downs	0.169	8.105	14.7%
Passing downs	0.288	3.452	10.2%

Clint Walker · TEUsage 6.0% · Avg PPA 0.087 · Total 3.150

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.087	3.150	6.0%
Pass	0.116	4.050	13.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.101	-1.011	4.1%
2nd down	-0.084	-0.922	5.6%
3rd down	0.404	5.255	9.0%
Standard downs	0.192	4.038	5.0%
Passing downs	-0.059	-0.889	8.4%

Jaylen Andrews · WRUsage 5.0% · Avg PPA 0.317 · Total 8.566

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.317	8.566	5.0%
Pass	0.317	8.566	11.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.168	2.018	5.6%
2nd down	0.155	1.242	4.5%
3rd down	0.758	5.307	5.4%
Standard downs	0.255	4.586	4.7%
Passing downs	0.442	3.980	5.8%

Jasaiah Gathings · WRUsage 4.8% · Avg PPA -0.202 · Total -2.018

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.202	-2.018	4.8%
Pass	-0.202	-2.018	10.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.201	-0.402	2.3%
2nd down	-0.480	-1.922	5.8%
3rd down	0.077	0.306	7.8%
Standard downs	-0.127	-0.889	4.9%
Passing downs	-0.376	-1.129	4.7%

Dwayne Early Jr. · WRUsage 4.7% · Avg PPA 0.220 · Total 5.503

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.220	5.503	4.7%
Pass	0.220	5.503	10.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.043	0.470	5.1%
2nd down	-0.233	-1.634	4.0%
3rd down	0.952	6.667	5.4%
Standard downs	0.223	3.562	4.4%
Passing downs	0.216	1.941	5.5%

Patrick Clacks III · WRUsage 4.7% · Avg PPA -0.044 · Total -0.970

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.044	-0.970	4.7%
Pass	-0.044	-0.970	10.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.136	0.949	3.7%
2nd down	0.056	0.334	3.9%
3rd down	-0.250	-2.253	7.8%
Standard downs	-0.046	-0.504	3.3%
Passing downs	-0.042	-0.466	7.8%

Phillip Folmar · WRUsage 3.4% · Avg PPA -0.387 · Total -1.933

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.387	-1.933	3.4%
Pass	-0.387	-1.933	6.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.510	-1.020	3.3%
2nd down	-0.436	-0.436	2.1%
3rd down	-0.239	-0.477	5.4%
Standard downs	-0.443	-1.774	4.2%
Passing downs	-0.159	-0.159	2.0%

Trevor Wilson · TEUsage 3.3% · Avg PPA 0.388 · Total 3.103

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.388	3.103	3.3%
Pass	0.388	3.103	6.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.549	-1.099	2.1%
2nd down	1.253	3.759	3.7%
3rd down	0.148	0.443	4.9%
Standard downs	0.272	1.631	3.6%
Passing downs	0.736	1.473	2.6%

Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBUsage 2.6% · Avg PPA -0.324 · Total -1.294

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.324	-1.294	2.6%
Pass	-0.324	-1.294	4.4%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.413	-1.240	5.1%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.054	-0.054	2.4%
Standard downs	-0.413	-1.240	3.2%
Passing downs	-0.054	-0.054	1.7%

Aaron Clark · WRUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA -0.343 · Total -0.343

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.343	-0.343	1.6%
Pass	-0.343	-0.343	4.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-0.343	-0.343	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	-0.343	-0.343	6.7%

TJ Sabatucci · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA -0.239 · Total -0.239

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.239	-0.239	1.6%
Pass	-0.239	-0.239	4.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-0.239	-0.239	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	-0.239	-0.239	2.1%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Michael Gelatko · TEUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA 2.824 · Total 2.824

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	2.824	2.824	1.4%
Pass	2.824	2.824	2.3%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	2.824	2.824	5.3%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	2.824	2.824	3.0%

Tyrell Simmons Jr. · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -1.061 · Total -1.061

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-1.061	-1.061	1.4%
Pass	-1.061	-1.061	2.3%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	-1.061	-1.061	4.5%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	-1.061	-1.061	3.0%

Where Buffalo sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Buffalo metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.040	19th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.358	4th138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.195	33rd138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.049	14th138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	0.051	31st138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.094	40th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.393	62nd138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.217	50th138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.161	53rd138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-10-30. Offense: 100% of 246 attempts charted. Average depth of target 9.5 yards (74th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 2.0 per completion. Completion 51.6%, 5.0 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.07.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	50.3%	58.3%	-8.0	171 / 246
Defense allowed	63.2%	61.7%	+1.5	171 / 248

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Buffalo.

Target mix by zone, Buffalo offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Buffalo passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	246	100%	9.5	2.0	51.6%	0.07	-8.0 pp	171
Passing defense	248	98%	9.2	5.1	57.7%	0.24	+1.5 pp	171

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	339	4.3	38.1%	0.11	3.00	0.80	1.30	14.3%	70.3%
Defense allowed	283	4.4	40.6%	0.02	3.10	1.00	0.90	15.5%	71.0%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	331 / 339	275	64	18	6	6	0	314 / 315 · 99.7%
Defense allowed	276 / 283	260	23	12	0	0	1	269 / 271 · 99.3%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -8.0 pp. 6 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	UAlbany	47	0	—	—	—	9.4	0.20	33	4.7	0.03
W2	Florida International	42	42	54.8%	59.1%	-4.3 pp	10.8	0.11	26	2.6	-0.17
W3	Penn State	25	25	40.0%	62.7%	-22.7 pp	6.4	-0.17	37	3.3	0.01
W4	Robert Morris	28	0	—	—	—	8.1	-0.25	63	4.9	0.23
W5	Western Michigan	18	18	61.1%	56.7%	+4.4 pp	11.1	0.46	47	2.8	0.06
W6	Toledo	31	31	45.2%	56.6%	-11.4 pp	10.9	0.09	47	3.9	0.24
W7	Massachusetts	34	34	44.1%	54.9%	-10.8 pp	10.2	-0.08	44	5.0	0.07
W8	Bowling Green	21	21	61.9%	60.8%	+1.1 pp	7.9	0.31	42	6.0	0.18

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

47 punts · 45.4 gross yards/punt · 38.7 net yards/punt

14 inside the 20 · 6 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 47/47 punts. Known net yards: 39/47 punts.

Our punt returns

10 returns · 5.3 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

1 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 10/10 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 8 · Bowling Green	3	43.7	43.7	3/3
Week 7 · Massachusetts	7	38.7	35.0	4/7
Week 6 · Toledo	6	46.0	41.3	4/6
Week 5 · Western Michigan	4	52.0	41.0	4/4
Week 4 · Robert Morris	2	43.5	43.5	2/2

Team style

Rating history