Record
5-2 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
SP+ workbook recordAir Force
2026 season
Mountain West
2026 preseason report
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
What every system says
Air Force's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 77 across 8 systems; best 58, worst 88, so they disagree by 30 places.
- Lab EPA
- #60
- Through week 82026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- Lab SRS
- #81
- down 172026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- SP+
- #73
- down 72026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
- Elo
- #81
- down 112026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- FPI
- #88
- down 92026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CORE
- #58
- down 19 · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8 · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CFBD SRS
- #87
- down 72026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- WEPA
- #59
- down 172026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-10-30T11:02:01.130624+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI context
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Résumé and schedule
Results earned and schedule difficulty
- Strength of record
- #74 of 138
- Schedule strength
- #135 of 138
- Remaining schedule strength
- #77 of 138
- Game control
- #110 of 138
Unit efficiency
Performance by unit
- Overall
- #88 of 138
- Offense
- #52 of 138
- Defense
- #120 of 138
- Special teams
- #85 of 138
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
Why the ratings disagree
Air Force · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
Descriptive EPA
0.022 net EPA/play
#60
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 8. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD playsLocal predictive SRS
-1.75 points
#81 · Down 17 places since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 8 · built 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 7 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +6.46 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -7.98, schedule #127 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -5.59. That is worth -1.52 on its own; the preseason prior of -2.47 still carries 24% of the weight, giving -1.75.
How each game enters this SRS rating
Air Force · 2026, through CFBD Week 8. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Duquesne home · 2026-09-05 · ID 401864496 | +34.00 → +34.00 | -2.50 | 0.7637 | 9.32% | -25.00 (fixed lower division) | 2.936 | -2.330 | 0.606 |
| Week 2 · North Dakota State home · 2026-09-13 · ID 401864502 | -6.00 → -6.00 | -2.50 | 0.7937 | 9.69% | +5.92 | -0.823 | 0.573 | -0.250 |
| Week 4 · Nevada away · 2026-09-27 · ID 401864509 | +3.00 → +1.00 (OT) | +2.50 | 0.8572 | 10.46% | -4.87 | 0.366 | -0.509 | -0.143 |
| Week 5 · Navy home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401862791 | +5.00 → +5.00 | -2.50 | 0.8909 | 10.87% | -2.28 | 0.272 | -0.248 | 0.024 |
| Week 6 · Northern Illinois away · 2026-10-10 · ID 401864516 | +21.00 → +21.00 | +2.50 | 0.9259 | 11.30% | -21.35 | 2.655 | -2.412 | 0.243 |
| Week 7 · UNLV home · 2026-10-17 · ID 401864524 | +10.00 → +10.00 | -2.50 | 0.9622 | 11.74% | -0.87 | 0.881 | -0.102 | 0.779 |
| Week 8 · Wyoming away · 2026-10-24 · ID 401864525 | -14.00 → -14.00 | +2.50 | 1.0000 | 12.20% | -8.25 | -1.404 | -1.007 | -2.410 |
Game terms -1.15 points; prior term -0.60 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -1.75 points. The preseason prior is -2.47 with 24.41% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±9.2 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 7 current games; prior available.
2026, through CFBD Week 8; generated 2026-10-30T11:17:06.745613+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scoresExternal SP+
-0.8 SP+ points
#73 · Down 7 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 9 · captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 9; captured 2026-10-25T21:28:39.844929+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbookExternal CORE
1.86 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#58 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 6.87 on 420 plays; defense 5.01 on 316 plays.
2026, through regular Week 8; model core-v1; captured 2026-10-30T11:02:06.855798+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks Air Force 21 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 8 and 9. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidenceProgram context
2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches- Record
- 5-2 · conf 3-2 · home 3-1 · away 2-1 · expected wins 5.1
- Polls (Week 9)
- unranked
- CFP latest
- not published
- CFP final
- not published
- Against the spread
- 2026: 4-3 ATS (+0.6 avg) · 2025: 5-7 ATS (-0.1 avg)
- Head coach
- Troy Calhoun · hired 2006-12-22 · 18-19 over 4 captured seasons
- Recruiting classes
- 2024 #172 (23 pts) · 2025 #129 (80 pts) · 2026 #141 (116 pts)
- Returning
- 57% of production · 63% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage Passing 102% 99% Receiving 13% 14% Rushing 70% 64% Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-10-30. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
Recruiting by position group
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 11 | 2.91 | 0.8181 | 9.00 |
| Defensive Line | 23 | 2.78 | 0.8171 | 18.79 |
| Linebacker | 12 | 2.67 | 0.8081 | 9.70 |
| Offensive Line | 8 | 2.50 | 0.8019 | 6.42 |
| Quarterback | 4 | 2.50 | 0.7950 | 3.18 |
| Receiver | 12 | 2.92 | 0.8170 | 9.80 |
| Running Back | 9 | 2.67 | 0.8097 | 7.29 |
| Special Teams | 14 | 2.79 | 0.8147 | 11.41 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Player efficiency and usage
2026 · observed 2026-10-30 UTCPassing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liam Szarka · QBCFBD athlete 5238868. Air Force (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.350 | 82 | 42.7% | Pass 81.6% · Rush 36.1%1st 34.1% · 2nd 42.6% · 3rd 53.0% Standard downs 37.3% · Passing downs 58.2% | Not linked |
Owen Allen · RBCFBD athlete 5223119. Air Force (2024–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.130 | 81 | 16.9% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 20.1%1st 25.4% · 2nd 12.9% · 3rd 6.9% Standard downs 20.1% · Passing downs 5.8% | Not linked |
Evan Medders · QBCFBD athlete 5306440. Air Force (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.378 | 67 | 19.3% | Pass 25.9% · Rush 18.8%1st 17.5% · 2nd 16.0% · 3rd 27.7% Standard downs 20.1% · Passing downs 16.3% | Not linked |
Rocco Conti · RBCFBD athlete 5223131. Air Force (2024–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.248 | 46 | 11.5% | Pass 8.5% · Rush 12.4%1st 8.5% · 2nd 12.9% · 3rd 15.7% Standard downs 10.0% · Passing downs 16.7% | Not linked |
Carter Cremascoli · PKCFBD athlete 5309674. Air Force (2026–2026) | Kicker PAAR | 4.700 | 10 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | Not linked |
Adam Hrynciw · WRCFBD athlete 5223149. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.3% | Pass 13.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 1.5% · 3rd 8.8% Standard downs 0.3% · Passing downs 8.1% | Not linked |
Astin Hange · WRCFBD athlete 5295014. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.2% | Pass 10.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.4% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.6% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Gage LaDue · FBCFBD athlete 5295010. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 9.3% | Pass 1.8% · Rush 10.6%1st 10.3% · 2nd 10.9% · 3rd 5.7% Standard downs 9.0% · Passing downs 10.0% | Not linked |
Grant Wayne · WRCFBD athlete 5223116. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.1% | Pass 11.6% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.1% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.7% · Passing downs 3.1% | Not linked |
Howard Fisher IV · QBCFBD athlete 5449066. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.3% | Pass 34.6% · Rush 5.1%1st 7.0% · 2nd 8.9% · 3rd 11.9% Standard downs 7.1% · Passing downs 13.6% | Not linked |
Jalen Rashad Turner · RBCFBD athlete 5223123. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 1.4%1st 0.0% · 2nd 3.8% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jonah Dawson · WRCFBD athlete 5238876. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.4% | Pass 14.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 1.7% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 5.5% Standard downs 1.4% · Passing downs 5.4% | Not linked |
Josh Johnson · QBCFBD athlete 5223108. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 7.5% | Pass 23.5% · Rush 3.3%1st 0.0% · 2nd 6.5% · 3rd 21.4% Standard downs 1.7% · Passing downs 25.0% | Not linked |
Kemper Hodges · QBCFBD athlete 5223112. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.4% | Pass 3.7% · Rush 9.3%1st 8.9% · 2nd 8.2% · 3rd 8.0% Standard downs 9.9% · Passing downs 3.0% | Not linked |
Luke Rauh · FBCFBD athlete 5295015. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.5% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.8%1st 2.8% · 2nd 3.8% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.1% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Mason Hayes · WRCFBD athlete 5295013. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.3% | Pass 8.0% · Rush 1.6%1st 0.0% · 2nd 5.7% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 1.2% · Passing downs 6.8% | Not linked |
Mason Lowe · WRCFBD athlete 5295012. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 1.4%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Matt Long · WRCFBD athlete 5238869. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 5.6% | Pass 15.5% · Rush 4.2%1st 5.1% · 2nd 7.8% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 6.0% · Passing downs 4.1% | Not linked |
Omari Elias · FBCFBD athlete 5295019. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.7% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 2.9%1st 4.4% · 2nd 2.1% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 2.4% · Passing downs 4.2% | Not linked |
Oswaldo Morales · RBCFBD athlete 5388370. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 1.4%1st 2.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Owen Chambers · WRCFBD athlete 5223117. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 3.8% · Rush 1.0%1st 2.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 2.4% Standard downs 1.1% · Passing downs 2.3% | Not linked |
Price Davis · FBCFBD athlete 5388364. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 0.0% · Rush 1.4%1st 2.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Simon Kibbee · TECFBD athlete 5223147. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.5% | Pass 18.3% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.2% · 2nd 1.1% · 3rd 2.9% Standard downs 2.2% · Passing downs 3.3% | Not linked |
Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo · WRCFBD athlete 5309672. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.3% | Pass 10.2% · Rush 0.8%1st 2.3% · 2nd 3.0% · 3rd 1.5% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 3.8% | Not linked |
Transfers
Incoming · 0 reported
No incoming transfers in this capture.
Outgoing · 4 reported
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Diaz · LS | Not reported | 2025-12-11 | — / — | Immediate |
| Jeremiah Shelby · EDGE | Not reported | 2025-12-15 | — / — | Immediate |
| Jordan Shuler · LB | Not reported | 2026-01-03 | 2★ / — | Immediate |
| Trae Williams · CB | Furman | 2026-01-23 | — / — | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Coaching eras
Continuous appointments at Air Force. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Troy Calhoun · career 139–97 across 20 seasons and 1 schools
Tenure timeline · 6 appointments
2007–present · Troy Calhoun · active at capture
139–97 · 236 attributed games · 20 seasons
Hired 2006-12-22. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1984–2006 · Fisher DeBerry
169–109–1 · 279 attributed games · 23 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1979–1983 · Ken Hatfield
26–32–1 · 59 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1978–1978 · Bill Parcells
3–8 · 11 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1958–1977 · Ben Martin
96–103–9 · 208 attributed games · 20 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1956–1957 · Buck Shaw
9–8–2 · 19 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
Season résumé · 2015–2026
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Troy Calhoun · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | 1.5 | -5.7 | 141 | — |
| 2025 · Troy Calhoun | 4–8 | 3–5 | 0–0 | -3.2 | -7.4 | 129 | — |
| 2024 · Troy Calhoun | 5–7 | 3–4 | 0–0 | -11.7 | -11.5 | 172 | — |
| 2023 · Troy Calhoun | 9–4 | 5–3 | 1–0 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 104 | — |
| 2022 · Troy Calhoun | 10–3 | 5–3 | 1–0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 114 | — |
| 2021 · Troy Calhoun | 10–3 | 6–2 | 1–0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 90 | — |
| 2020 · Troy Calhoun | 3–3 | 2–2 | 0–0 | -5.6 | 4.7 | 107 | — |
| 2019 · Troy Calhoun | 11–2 | 7–1 | 1–0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 107 | 22 |
| 2018 · Troy Calhoun | 5–7 | 3–5 | 0–0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | 122 | — |
| 2017 · Troy Calhoun | 5–7 | 4–4 | 0–0 | -11 | -7.8 | 109 | — |
| 2016 · Troy Calhoun | 10–3 | 5–3 | 1–0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 114 | — |
| 2015 · Troy Calhoun | 8–6 | 6–3 | 0–1 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 123 | — |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
CFBD season overview
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-10-26 04:10:14.047809 UTC · Source data
Stat rankings
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-10-25 13:08:58 UTC · calculated 2026-10-26 04:10:14 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-10-26 04:20:14 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 33 / 138 | 76.6 | 64 / 138 | 54.0 |
| Success rate | 13 / 138 | 91.2 | 47 / 138 | 66.4 |
| Explosiveness | 138 / 138 | 0.0 | 95 / 138 | 31.4 |
| Standard-down success | 6 / 138 | 96.4 | 50 / 138 | 64.2 |
| Passing-down success | 97 / 138 | 29.9 | 44 / 138 | 68.6 |
| Pass PPA | 134 / 138 | 2.9 | 73 / 138 | 47.4 |
| Rush PPA | 2 / 138 | 99.3 | 64 / 138 | 54.0 |
| Pass explosiveness | 9 / 138 | 94.2 | 111 / 138 | 19.7 |
| Rush explosiveness | 69 / 138 | 50.4 | 76 / 138 | 45.3 |
| Line yards | 1 / 138 | 100.0 | 108 / 138 | 21.9 |
| Second-level yards | 23 / 138 | 83.9 | 102 / 138 | 26.3 |
| Open-field yards | 112 / 138 | 19.0 | 89 / 138 | 35.8 |
| Stuff rate | 1 / 138 | 100.0 | 95 / 138 | 31.4 |
| Power success | 7 / 138 | 95.6 | T88 / 138 | 36.1 |
| Havoc | 1 / 138 | 100.0 | T106 / 138 | 23.0 |
| Front-seven havoc | 3 / 138 | 98.5 | 135 / 138 | 2.2 |
| DB havoc | 5 / 138 | 97.1 | T27 / 138 | 80.3 |
| Points / opportunity | 25 / 138 | 82.5 | 116 / 138 | 16.1 |
| Average field position | T79 / 138 | 40.5 | T45 / 138 | 67.2 |
| Field-position expected points | T102 / 138 | 25.9 | T41 / 138 | 70.1 |
Player PPA and usage
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
Liam Szarka · QBUsage 42.7% · Avg PPA 0.250 · Total 32.755
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.250 | 32.755 | 42.7% |
| Pass | -0.020 | -0.818 | 81.6% |
| Rush | 0.408 | 36.742 | 36.1% |
| 1st down | 0.105 | 4.624 | 34.1% |
| 2nd down | -0.145 | -6.232 | 42.6% |
| 3rd down | 0.373 | 13.067 | 53.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.351 | 29.861 | 37.3% |
| Passing downs | 0.063 | 2.894 | 58.2% |
Evan Medders · QBUsage 19.3% · Avg PPA 0.470 · Total 39.444
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.470 | 39.444 | 19.3% |
| Pass | -0.020 | -0.306 | 25.9% |
| Rush | 0.576 | 39.750 | 18.8% |
| 1st down | 0.222 | 7.328 | 17.5% |
| 2nd down | 0.337 | 8.086 | 16.0% |
| 3rd down | 0.724 | 16.654 | 27.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.505 | 34.330 | 20.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.320 | 5.114 | 16.3% |
Owen Allen · RBUsage 16.9% · Avg PPA 0.022 · Total 1.975
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.022 | 1.975 | 16.9% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.022 | 1.975 | 20.1% |
| 1st down | -0.015 | -0.848 | 25.4% |
| 2nd down | -0.095 | -2.194 | 12.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.297 | 2.077 | 6.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.036 | 2.878 | 20.1% |
| Passing downs | -0.129 | -0.904 | 5.8% |
Rocco Conti · RBUsage 11.5% · Avg PPA 0.290 · Total 17.424
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.290 | 17.424 | 11.5% |
| Pass | -0.647 | -3.880 | 8.5% |
| Rush | 0.395 | 21.304 | 12.4% |
| 1st down | 0.011 | 0.214 | 8.5% |
| 2nd down | 0.190 | 4.365 | 12.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.893 | 14.284 | 15.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.271 | 10.836 | 10.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.329 | 6.589 | 16.7% |
Gage LaDue · FBUsage 9.3% · Avg PPA 0.106 · Total 4.448
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.106 | 4.448 | 9.3% |
| Pass | 2.580 | 2.580 | 1.8% |
| Rush | 0.046 | 1.868 | 10.6% |
| 1st down | 0.057 | 1.147 | 10.3% |
| 2nd down | -0.080 | -1.354 | 10.9% |
| 3rd down | 0.931 | 4.654 | 5.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.058 | 1.860 | 9.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.259 | 2.589 | 10.0% |
Kemper Hodges · QBUsage 8.4% · Avg PPA 0.086 · Total 3.164
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.086 | 3.164 | 8.4% |
| Pass | -2.305 | -4.610 | 3.7% |
| Rush | 0.222 | 7.773 | 9.3% |
| 1st down | 0.352 | 5.983 | 8.9% |
| 2nd down | -0.126 | -1.507 | 8.2% |
| 3rd down | 0.409 | 2.861 | 8.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.113 | 3.855 | 9.9% |
| Passing downs | -0.230 | -0.691 | 3.0% |
Howard Fisher IV · QBUsage 8.3% · Avg PPA 0.170 · Total 3.231
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.170 | 3.231 | 8.3% |
| Pass | -0.169 | -1.524 | 34.6% |
| Rush | 0.476 | 4.756 | 5.1% |
| 1st down | -0.486 | -3.400 | 7.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.198 | 1.389 | 8.9% |
| 3rd down | 1.049 | 5.243 | 11.9% |
| Standard downs | 0.027 | 0.355 | 7.1% |
| Passing downs | 0.479 | 2.876 | 13.6% |
Josh Johnson · QBUsage 7.5% · Avg PPA -1.378 · Total -8.270
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -1.378 | -8.270 | 7.5% |
| Pass | 0.078 | 0.311 | 23.5% |
| Rush | -4.291 | -8.581 | 3.3% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | -0.741 | -1.483 | 6.5% |
| 3rd down | -0.911 | -2.733 | 21.4% |
| Standard downs | -4.054 | -4.054 | 1.7% |
| Passing downs | -0.843 | -4.216 | 25.0% |
Matt Long · WRUsage 5.6% · Avg PPA 0.817 · Total 20.436
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.817 | 20.436 | 5.6% |
| Pass | 0.892 | 8.027 | 15.5% |
| Rush | 0.776 | 12.409 | 4.2% |
| 1st down | 0.783 | 7.828 | 5.1% |
| 2nd down | 0.695 | 8.336 | 7.8% |
| 3rd down | 0.689 | 1.377 | 2.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.949 | 19.924 | 6.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.128 | 0.511 | 4.1% |
Omari Elias · FBUsage 2.7% · Avg PPA -0.143 · Total -0.573
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.143 | -0.573 | 2.7% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | -0.143 | -0.573 | 2.9% |
| 1st down | -0.209 | -0.628 | 4.4% |
| 2nd down | 0.055 | 0.055 | 2.1% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.209 | -0.628 | 2.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.055 | 0.055 | 4.2% |
Luke Rauh · FBUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA 0.576 · Total 1.152
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.576 | 1.152 | 2.5% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.576 | 1.152 | 2.8% |
| 1st down | 1.336 | 1.336 | 2.8% |
| 2nd down | -0.184 | -0.184 | 3.8% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.576 | 1.152 | 3.1% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Simon Kibbee · TEUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA 0.233 · Total 3.031
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.233 | 3.031 | 2.5% |
| Pass | 0.233 | 3.031 | 18.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.026 | -0.131 | 2.2% |
| 2nd down | 0.927 | 1.854 | 1.1% |
| 3rd down | 0.177 | 0.532 | 2.9% |
| Standard downs | -0.207 | -1.861 | 2.2% |
| Passing downs | 1.223 | 4.892 | 3.3% |
Jonah Dawson · WRUsage 2.4% · Avg PPA 0.008 · Total 0.053
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.008 | 0.053 | 2.4% |
| Pass | 0.008 | 0.053 | 14.3% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -1.043 | -2.085 | 1.7% |
| 2nd down | 0.374 | 0.748 | 2.0% |
| 3rd down | 0.464 | 1.391 | 5.5% |
| Standard downs | -0.188 | -0.564 | 1.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.154 | 0.617 | 5.4% |
Adam Hrynciw · WRUsage 2.3% · Avg PPA 0.883 · Total 7.946
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.883 | 7.946 | 2.3% |
| Pass | 0.883 | 7.946 | 13.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | -0.978 | -1.957 | 1.5% |
| 3rd down | 1.415 | 9.903 | 8.8% |
| Standard downs | 2.839 | 2.839 | 0.3% |
| Passing downs | 0.638 | 5.108 | 8.1% |
Mason Hayes · WRUsage 2.3% · Avg PPA 0.731 · Total 3.655
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.731 | 3.655 | 2.3% |
| Pass | 1.380 | 2.761 | 8.0% |
| Rush | 0.298 | 0.895 | 1.6% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | 0.003 | 0.010 | 5.7% |
| 3rd down | 3.645 | 3.645 | 2.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.471 | -0.943 | 1.2% |
| Passing downs | 1.533 | 4.598 | 6.8% |
Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo · WRUsage 2.3% · Avg PPA -0.161 · Total -1.130
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.161 | -1.130 | 2.3% |
| Pass | -0.083 | -0.414 | 10.2% |
| Rush | -0.358 | -0.715 | 0.8% |
| 1st down | 0.477 | 1.431 | 2.3% |
| 2nd down | -0.604 | -1.811 | 3.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.749 | -0.749 | 1.5% |
| Standard downs | 0.251 | 1.003 | 1.8% |
| Passing downs | -0.711 | -2.133 | 3.8% |
Grant Wayne · WRUsage 2.1% · Avg PPA 0.646 · Total 3.231
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.646 | 3.231 | 2.1% |
| Pass | 0.646 | 3.231 | 11.6% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.362 | -0.362 | 1.1% |
| 2nd down | 0.898 | 3.594 | 4.8% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.506 | 1.517 | 1.7% |
| Passing downs | 0.857 | 1.715 | 3.1% |
Jalen Rashad Turner · RBUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 1.374 · Total 1.374
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1.374 | 1.374 | 1.3% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 1.374 | 1.374 | 1.4% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | 1.374 | 1.374 | 3.8% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 1.374 | 1.374 | 1.5% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Mason Lowe · WRUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.711 · Total 0.711
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.711 | 0.711 | 1.3% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.711 | 0.711 | 1.4% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 0.711 | 0.711 | 6.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.711 | 0.711 | 1.5% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Oswaldo Morales · RBUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.590 · Total 0.590
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.590 | 0.590 | 1.3% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.590 | 0.590 | 1.4% |
| 1st down | 0.590 | 0.590 | 2.8% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.590 | 0.590 | 1.5% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Owen Chambers · WRUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.387 · Total 1.160
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.387 | 1.160 | 1.3% |
| Pass | -0.998 | -0.998 | 3.8% |
| Rush | 1.079 | 2.157 | 1.0% |
| 1st down | -0.120 | -0.241 | 2.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | 1.400 | 1.400 | 2.4% |
| Standard downs | -0.120 | -0.241 | 1.1% |
| Passing downs | 1.400 | 1.400 | 2.3% |
Price Davis · FBUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.085 · Total 0.085
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.085 | 0.085 | 1.3% |
| Pass | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Rush | 0.085 | 0.085 | 1.4% |
| 1st down | 0.085 | 0.085 | 2.8% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.085 | 0.085 | 1.5% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
Astin Hange · WRUsage 1.2% · Avg PPA -1.117 · Total -2.234
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -1.117 | -2.234 | 1.2% |
| Pass | -1.117 | -2.234 | 10.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -1.108 | -1.108 | 1.4% |
| 2nd down | -1.126 | -1.126 | 1.9% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -1.117 | -2.234 | 1.6% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
2026 · Through provider Week 8. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
Values and percentiles
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | 0.219 | 77th138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.494 | 91st138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.035 | 0th138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | -0.057 | 3rd138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | 0.293 | 99th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | 0.064 | 54th138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.387 | 66th138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.266 | 31st138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.139 | 23rd138 teams | higher |
Passing profile
2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPACaptured 2026-10-30. Offense: 97% of 66 attempts charted. Average depth of target 13.1 yards (98th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 3.9 per completion. Completion 50.0%, 7.2 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.03.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 50.9% | 50.9% | +0.0 | 57 / 66 |
| Defense allowed | 59.6% | 58.5% | +1.1 | 141 / 164 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Air Force.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
Defense and rushing detail
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 66 | 97% | 13.1 | 3.9 | 50.0% | 0.03 | +0.0 pp | 57 |
| Passing defense | 164 | 99% | 10.7 | 5.8 | 57.3% | 0.18 | +1.1 pp | 141 |
Rushing production
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 443 | 5.2 | 52.9% | 0.30 | 3.60 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 8.1% | 84.4% |
| Defense allowed | 202 | 4.6 | 40.8% | 0.07 | 3.20 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 16.2% | 73.7% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
Rushing sample and attribution
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 430 / 443 | 427 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 429 / 431 · 99.5% |
| Defense allowed | 201 / 202 | 198 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 191 / 191 · 100.0% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
Game-by-game passing and rushing
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +0.0 pp. 6 of 7 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
Game log and attempt coverage
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Duquesne | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.7 | -0.51 | 71 | 6.1 | 0.52 |
| W2 | North Dakota State | 15 | 15 | 60.0% | 47.6% | +12.4 pp | 16.5 | 0.75 | 51 | 4.1 | 0.11 |
| W4 | Nevada | 13 | 12 | 41.7% | 47.2% | -5.5 pp | 15.8 | 0.17 | 70 | 5.1 | 0.32 |
| W5 | Navy | 12 | 12 | 50.0% | 53.7% | -3.7 pp | 13.0 | -0.48 | 59 | 3.0 | -0.03 |
| W6 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 50.4% | -50.4 pp | 2.0 | -4.17 | 67 | 6.5 | 0.48 |
| W7 | UNLV | 3 | 3 | 66.7% | 52.4% | +14.3 pp | 13.3 | -0.30 | 62 | 6.7 | 0.50 |
| W8 | Wyoming | 15 | 14 | 50.0% | 54.8% | -4.8 pp | 10.5 | 0.20 | 63 | 4.8 | 0.10 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
Punting and returns
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-10-30T11:16:37.416814+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
Our punts
15 punts · 46.1 gross yards/punt · 40.4 net yards/punt
4 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked
Known gross yards: 15/15 punts. Known net yards: 8/15 punts.
Our punt returns
1 returns · 0.0 yards/return · 0 touchdowns
0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 1/1 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
Recent games
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 · Wyoming | 0 | — | — | 0/0 |
| Week 7 · UNLV | 1 | 21.0 | — | 0/1 |
| Week 6 · Northern Illinois | 1 | 30.0 | — | 0/1 |
| Week 5 · Navy | 5 | 45.0 | 44.5 | 2/5 |
| Week 4 · Nevada | 3 | 45.3 | 38.0 | 2/3 |