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SRS, Elo and market forecasts · weekly walk-forward evaluation

Elo through coaching eras

CFBD provider Elo · season-end observations, 1970–2025. Each point is the latest recorded Elo for a completed season, requested by year without a week or season-type filter. These retrospective values include postseason where supplied. They are separate from the lab’s local Elo and weekly pregame ratings.

Wisconsin · 1970–2025 · 56/56 seasons with Elo. Missing observations break the line.

Wisconsin · completed-season CFBD Elo · 1970–202510001300160019002200197019781986199420022010201820251970: John Jardine appointment starts (season-level)1978: Dave McClain appointment starts (season-level)1986: Jim Hilles appointment starts (season-level)1987: Don Morton appointment starts (season-level)1990: Barry Alvarez appointment starts (season-level)2006: Bret Bielema appointment starts (season-level)2012: Barry Alvarez appointment starts (season-level)2013: Gary Andersen appointment starts (season-level)2014: Barry Alvarez appointment starts (season-level)2015: Paul Chryst appointment starts (season-level)2022: Luke Fickell appointment starts (season-level)2022: Jim Leonhard appointment starts (season-level)1970: 1477 CFBD Elo1971: 1453 CFBD Elo1972: 1331 CFBD Elo1973: 1447 CFBD Elo1974: 1696 CFBD Elo1975: 1328 CFBD Elo1976: 1463 CFBD Elo1977: 1313 CFBD Elo1978: 1383 CFBD Elo1979: 1286 CFBD Elo1980: 1428 CFBD Elo1981: 1545 CFBD Elo1982: 1600 CFBD Elo1983: 1720 CFBD Elo1984: 1618 CFBD Elo1985: 1466 CFBD Elo1986: 1435 CFBD Elo1987: 1290 CFBD Elo1988: 1136 CFBD Elo1989: 1200 CFBD Elo1990: 1226 CFBD Elo1991: 1337 CFBD Elo1992: 1495 CFBD Elo1993: 1786 CFBD Elo1994: 1802 CFBD Elo1995: 1613 CFBD Elo1996: 1721 CFBD Elo1997: 1551 CFBD Elo1998: 1905 CFBD Elo1999: 2029 CFBD Elo2000: 1798 CFBD Elo2001: 1548 CFBD Elo2002: 1668 CFBD Elo2003: 1706 CFBD Elo2004: 1649 CFBD Elo2005: 1783 CFBD Elo2006: 1908 CFBD Elo2007: 1796 CFBD Elo2008: 1605 CFBD Elo2009: 1764 CFBD Elo2010: 1987 CFBD Elo2011: 2107 CFBD Elo2012: 2013 CFBD Elo2013: 1967 CFBD Elo2014: 1847 CFBD Elo2015: 1800 CFBD Elo2016: 1918 CFBD Elo2017: 2028 CFBD Elo2018: 1764 CFBD Elo2019: 2021 CFBD Elo2020: 1867 CFBD Elo2021: 1864 CFBD Elo2022: 1706 CFBD Elo2023: 1631 CFBD Elo2024: 1554 CFBD Elo2025: 1502 CFBD EloJohn Jardine: 1970–1977. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.John Jardine1970–1977Dave McClain: 1978–1985. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Dave McClain1978–1985Jim Hilles: 1986–1986. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Jim Hilles1986Don Morton: 1987–1989. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Don Morton1987–1989Barry Alvarez: 1990–2005. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Barry Alvarez1990–2005Bret Bielema: 2006–2012. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Bret Bielema2006–2012Barry Alvarez: 2012–2012. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Barry Alvarez2012Gary Andersen: 2013–2014. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Gary Andersen2013–2014Barry Alvarez: 2014–2014. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Barry Alvarez2014Paul Chryst: 2015–2022. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Paul Chryst2015–2022Luke Fickell: 2022–active at capture. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Luke Fickell2022–activeJim Leonhard · interim: 2022–2022. Incomplete attribution. Exact effective dates unknown to unknown.Jim Leonhard · interim2022

Each appointment has its own band; interim appointments have dashed borders. Bands and start markers use reported season years, not exact dates. Band labels retain original years when clipped by the selection. Multiple appointments can overlap a season, and annual Elo is not assigned to an individual coach. Inactive appointments with unknown end dates show their start season only. Coincident changes do not establish causal coaching effects.

Season values and appointment annotations
SeasonProvider EloAppointments spanning season (not Elo attribution)
19701477John Jardine
19711453John Jardine
19721331John Jardine
19731447John Jardine
19741696John Jardine
19751328John Jardine
19761463John Jardine
19771313John Jardine
19781383Dave McClain
19791286Dave McClain
19801428Dave McClain
19811545Dave McClain
19821600Dave McClain
19831720Dave McClain
19841618Dave McClain
19851466Dave McClain
19861435Jim Hilles
19871290Don Morton
19881136Don Morton
19891200Don Morton
19901226Barry Alvarez
19911337Barry Alvarez
19921495Barry Alvarez
19931786Barry Alvarez
19941802Barry Alvarez
19951613Barry Alvarez
19961721Barry Alvarez
19971551Barry Alvarez
19981905Barry Alvarez
19992029Barry Alvarez
20001798Barry Alvarez
20011548Barry Alvarez
20021668Barry Alvarez
20031706Barry Alvarez
20041649Barry Alvarez
20051783Barry Alvarez
20061908Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20071796Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20081605Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20091764Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20101987Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20112107Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution
20122013Bret Bielema · incomplete attribution; Barry Alvarez · incomplete attribution
20131967Gary Andersen · incomplete attribution
20141847Gary Andersen · incomplete attribution; Barry Alvarez · incomplete attribution
20151800Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20161918Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20172028Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20181764Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20192021Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20201867Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20211864Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution
20221706Paul Chryst · incomplete attribution; Luke Fickell · incomplete attribution; Jim Leonhard (interim) · incomplete attribution
20231631Luke Fickell · incomplete attribution
20241554Luke Fickell · incomplete attribution
20251502Luke Fickell · incomplete attribution
Download selected seasons CSVDownload full history and source receipts

Elo acquired 2026-10-26T14:30:54.097412+00:00 · coaching acquired 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00. Population: current published team roster, matched by exact provider name; historical membership is not reconstructed. A missing season remains unavailable. Source capture times do not establish historical pregame availability. Downloads retain request hashes and the reviewed coaching/roster input hashes.

Walk-forward comparison

Walk-forward · 2016–2025 · FBS-vs-FBS · Week 4+ · 5826 games

Pooled walk-forward results include 2016–2023 tuning seasons. Parameters were chosen on those seasons; 2024–2025 is the later confirmation split. Those confirmation seasons were already inspected, so they are not an untouched holdout or proof of betting value. Brier measures probability error (lower is better), not ATS performance.

2016–2023 · tuning seasons · 4597 games · Brier: Raw record 0.2131 · SRS 0.1837 · Elo 0.2036

2024–2025 · confirmation seasons · 1229 games · Brier: Raw record 0.2137 · SRS 0.1861 · Elo 0.2036

SeasonsSystemGamesAccuracyBrierLog loss
2016–23settings tuned hereRaw record459768.4%0.21310.6160
2016–23settings tuned hereSRS459771.9%0.18370.5440
2016–23settings tuned hereElo459769.1%0.20360.5950
2024–25not used for tuningRaw record122966.6%0.21370.6167
2024–25not used for tuningSRS122970.9%0.18610.5474
2024–25not used for tuningElo122969.9%0.20360.5945
2016–25all seasonsRaw record582668.0%0.21320.6161
2016–25all seasonsSRS582671.6%0.18420.5447
2016–25all seasonsElo582669.3%0.20360.5949
From analysis/output/power_ratings_oos_comparison.csv · SRS is the published research system

Walk-forward means every forecast uses only games played before it. That is not fully out-of-sample: SRS's settings (probability scale, half-life, lower-division anchor) were tuned on 2016–2023, so those seasons flatter it. 2024–2025 was not used to pick settings.

On the stricter market-matched confirmation split, latest-archived market lines often post a lower Brier than SRS. That is expected and published in the README — SRS remains the research system unless a challenger clears a predeclared gate.

Movement charts

SRS vs Elo — 2025 movementWeekly power rating movement for SRS and Elo in 2025
Benchmark movementPower rating benchmark movement chart

Charts staged by npm run prebuild from analysis/output/. Full file list: Research index.

Market expectations and results

2026 regular season · completed FBS-versus-FBS games only. Each dot is a team. Right means a larger average expected winning margin; up means results exceeded that recorded expectation.

Choose one provider and quote basis. Both averages use exactly the same lined games. Opening means CFBD-reported opening; latest archived means the spread in the selected full-season capture, not a verified close. These historical reports do not establish pregame availability, executable prices or an exploitable betting system.

Bovada · reported opening · 138/138 teams have lined games. Coverage below is lined / all eligible completed games for each team; conference filters select the team’s recorded game-time conference, retaining its opponents. Small samples are descriptive and carry no minimum-sample inference.

Average expected team margin versus average actual minus expected margin-30.9-19.30.00.030.919.3Average expected team margin (points)Actual − expected (points)Air Force: expected +3.17, actual − expected 0.00, 6/6 games, 0 pushesAkron: expected -12.50, actual − expected -8.21, 7/7 games, 0 pushesAlabama: expected +12.00, actual − expected +5.00, 8/8 games, 0 pushesApp State: expected -0.17, actual − expected -0.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesArizona: expected +9.42, actual − expected +8.58, 6/6 games, 1 pushesArizona State: expected +0.08, actual − expected -9.42, 6/6 games, 0 pushesArkansas: expected -10.75, actual − expected +1.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesArkansas State: expected -3.93, actual − expected -0.79, 7/7 games, 0 pushesArmy: expected +2.42, actual − expected +3.58, 6/6 games, 1 pushesAuburn: expected +1.64, actual − expected -0.36, 7/7 games, 0 pushesBall State: expected -16.93, actual − expected -1.64, 7/7 games, 0 pushesBaylor: expected +4.33, actual − expected +4.00, 6/6 games, 1 pushesBoise State: expected +4.83, actual − expected +9.00, 6/6 games, 0 pushesBoston College: expected -8.58, actual − expected +8.58, 6/6 games, 0 pushesBowling Green: expected -10.71, actual − expected -0.86, 7/7 games, 0 pushesBuffalo: expected -12.58, actual − expected +7.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesBYU: expected +6.33, actual − expected +1.33, 6/6 games, 1 pushesCalifornia: expected -5.43, actual − expected -10.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesCentral Michigan: expected -8.00, actual − expected -1.57, 7/7 games, 1 pushesCharlotte: expected -24.75, actual − expected +0.08, 6/6 games, 0 pushesCincinnati: expected -0.17, actual − expected +2.00, 6/6 games, 0 pushesClemson: expected -0.50, actual − expected -5.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesCoastal Carolina: expected -5.17, actual − expected -0.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesColorado: expected -10.83, actual − expected -6.00, 6/6 games, 1 pushesColorado State: expected -7.75, actual − expected -4.25, 6/6 games, 1 pushesDelaware: expected -5.21, actual − expected +2.07, 7/7 games, 0 pushesDuke: expected +3.58, actual − expected +3.42, 6/6 games, 0 pushesEast Carolina: expected -2.67, actual − expected -4.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesEastern Michigan: expected -5.63, actual − expected -2.50, 8/8 games, 0 pushesFlorida: expected +6.58, actual − expected -1.58, 6/6 games, 0 pushesFlorida Atlantic: expected -2.36, actual − expected -3.36, 7/7 games, 0 pushesFlorida International: expected +0.50, actual − expected +1.17, 6/6 games, 1 pushesFlorida State: expected -3.83, actual − expected +3.67, 6/6 games, 0 pushesFresno State: expected +2.64, actual − expected +4.07, 7/7 games, 1 pushesGeorgia: expected +20.42, actual − expected +1.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesGeorgia Southern: expected -7.75, actual − expected +4.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesGeorgia State: expected -5.00, actual − expected +8.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesGeorgia Tech: expected -2.42, actual − expected -7.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesHawai'i: expected -2.50, actual − expected -1.25, 8/8 games, 1 pushesHouston: expected +4.93, actual − expected +2.07, 7/7 games, 0 pushesIllinois: expected +1.67, actual − expected -2.17, 6/6 games, 0 pushesIndiana: expected +20.07, actual − expected -3.21, 7/7 games, 2 pushesIowa: expected +5.00, actual − expected +1.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesIowa State: expected -2.92, actual − expected +0.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesJacksonville State: expected +1.29, actual − expected +0.71, 7/7 games, 2 pushesJames Madison: expected +9.94, actual − expected +2.31, 8/8 games, 0 pushesKansas: expected -2.75, actual − expected +3.42, 6/6 games, 0 pushesKansas State: expected +9.50, actual − expected -7.17, 6/6 games, 0 pushesKennesaw State: expected -6.29, actual − expected -3.14, 7/7 games, 0 pushesKent State: expected -17.29, actual − expected -3.57, 7/7 games, 0 pushesKentucky: expected -2.14, actual − expected +6.86, 7/7 games, 0 pushesLiberty: expected +7.00, actual − expected +13.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesLouisiana: expected +0.71, actual − expected +5.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesLouisiana Tech: expected -4.67, actual − expected +5.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesLouisville: expected +5.00, actual − expected +0.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesLSU: expected +12.14, actual − expected +8.43, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMarshall: expected -3.83, actual − expected -6.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMaryland: expected -6.25, actual − expected -9.92, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMassachusetts: expected -6.75, actual − expected +5.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMemphis: expected +7.43, actual − expected +3.29, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMiami: expected +23.42, actual − expected +4.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMiami (OH): expected +0.36, actual − expected -4.36, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMichigan: expected +10.64, actual − expected -6.07, 7/7 games, 1 pushesMichigan State: expected -5.56, actual − expected -0.31, 8/8 games, 0 pushesMiddle Tennessee: expected -8.29, actual − expected -1.71, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMinnesota: expected +0.83, actual − expected -2.00, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMississippi State: expected +1.86, actual − expected +0.43, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMissouri: expected +3.75, actual − expected +3.08, 6/6 games, 0 pushesMissouri State: expected -11.43, actual − expected -0.86, 7/7 games, 0 pushesNavy: expected +0.67, actual − expected -4.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNC State: expected +0.58, actual − expected -7.92, 6/6 games, 1 pushesNebraska: expected +9.50, actual − expected +9.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNevada: expected -0.67, actual − expected +7.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNew Mexico: expected +6.92, actual − expected +12.58, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNew Mexico State: expected -7.93, actual − expected -1.64, 7/7 games, 1 pushesNorth Carolina: expected -5.08, actual − expected +3.92, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNorth Dakota State: expected +10.86, actual − expected +1.14, 7/7 games, 0 pushesNorth Texas: expected -1.14, actual − expected +7.71, 7/7 games, 0 pushesNorthern Illinois: expected -16.17, actual − expected -10.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNorthwestern: expected +6.83, actual − expected +11.67, 6/6 games, 0 pushesNotre Dame: expected +26.86, actual − expected +0.86, 7/7 games, 0 pushesOhio: expected +1.29, actual − expected +3.57, 7/7 games, 1 pushesOhio State: expected +25.86, actual − expected 0.00, 7/7 games, 1 pushesOklahoma: expected +7.14, actual − expected -3.29, 7/7 games, 0 pushesOklahoma State: expected +1.25, actual − expected +7.92, 6/6 games, 0 pushesOld Dominion: expected -6.21, actual − expected -9.64, 7/7 games, 0 pushesOle Miss: expected +8.86, actual − expected +1.86, 7/7 games, 0 pushesOregon: expected +12.92, actual − expected -12.42, 6/6 games, 0 pushesOregon State: expected +0.25, actual − expected +16.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesPenn State: expected +13.07, actual − expected -3.21, 7/7 games, 0 pushesPittsburgh: expected +2.86, actual − expected +1.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesPurdue: expected -9.25, actual − expected +3.92, 6/6 games, 0 pushesRice: expected -15.07, actual − expected -1.21, 7/7 games, 1 pushesRutgers: expected -6.92, actual − expected -6.92, 6/6 games, 0 pushesSacramento State: expected -13.36, actual − expected -14.21, 7/7 games, 0 pushesSam Houston: expected -12.86, actual − expected -3.71, 7/7 games, 0 pushesSan Diego State: expected -5.00, actual − expected -10.71, 7/7 games, 0 pushesSan José State: expected -5.50, actual − expected +1.64, 7/7 games, 0 pushesSMU: expected +14.25, actual − expected -4.08, 6/6 games, 0 pushesSouth Alabama: expected -1.83, actual − expected +0.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesSouth Carolina: expected +2.17, actual − expected +4.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesSouth Florida: expected +7.58, actual − expected -1.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesSouthern Miss: expected -13.17, actual − expected -2.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesStanford: expected -12.79, actual − expected -8.93, 7/7 games, 0 pushesSyracuse: expected -5.67, actual − expected +1.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesTCU: expected +4.25, actual − expected -2.42, 6/6 games, 0 pushesTemple: expected -1.67, actual − expected -5.00, 6/6 games, 0 pushesTennessee: expected +8.64, actual − expected +2.93, 7/7 games, 0 pushesTexas: expected +12.57, actual − expected -1.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesTexas A&M: expected +7.64, actual − expected -2.79, 7/7 games, 0 pushesTexas State: expected 0.00, actual − expected -0.50, 6/6 games, 0 pushesTexas Tech: expected +18.00, actual − expected -3.83, 6/6 games, 0 pushesToledo: expected +6.36, actual − expected -0.21, 7/7 games, 0 pushesTroy: expected -1.50, actual − expected -2.50, 7/7 games, 0 pushesTulane: expected -1.79, actual − expected -2.50, 7/7 games, 1 pushesTulsa: expected -0.07, actual − expected +0.21, 7/7 games, 0 pushesUAB: expected -8.42, actual − expected +3.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUCF: expected -3.08, actual − expected +3.25, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUCLA: expected +4.50, actual − expected +14.64, 7/7 games, 0 pushesUConn: expected -1.17, actual − expected +6.67, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUL Monroe: expected -16.33, actual − expected -3.17, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUNLV: expected +3.21, actual − expected -2.79, 7/7 games, 0 pushesUSC: expected +15.63, actual − expected -7.88, 8/8 games, 0 pushesUtah: expected +14.67, actual − expected +3.33, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUtah State: expected -13.25, actual − expected +5.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUTEP: expected -21.50, actual − expected -11.17, 6/6 games, 0 pushesUTSA: expected +1.43, actual − expected +3.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesVanderbilt: expected -3.36, actual − expected -7.93, 7/7 games, 1 pushesVirginia: expected +5.29, actual − expected -3.43, 7/7 games, 0 pushesVirginia Tech: expected +8.00, actual − expected -1.43, 7/7 games, 0 pushesWake Forest: expected +2.71, actual − expected +15.29, 7/7 games, 0 pushesWashington: expected +7.75, actual − expected -7.08, 6/6 games, 0 pushesWashington State: expected -12.07, actual − expected -3.79, 7/7 games, 1 pushesWest Virginia: expected -0.29, actual − expected -2.00, 7/7 games, 0 pushesWestern Kentucky: expected -11.14, actual − expected -6.57, 7/7 games, 0 pushesWestern Michigan: expected +1.57, actual − expected +0.57, 7/7 games, 1 pushesWisconsin: expected +0.42, actual − expected +8.75, 6/6 games, 0 pushesWyoming: expected -4.79, actual − expected +3.07, 7/7 games, 0 pushesMichigan
Axes are centered on zero and rescale with the filters. Scroll the chart horizontally on narrow screens. Team values and exact game samples are listed below; pushes remain in both averages.
Team values and coverage
TeamExpectedActual − expectedLined / eligibleAbove / below / push
Air Force+3.170.006 / 63 / 3 / 0
Akron-12.50-8.217 / 72 / 5 / 0
Alabama+12.00+5.008 / 84 / 4 / 0
App State-0.17-0.336 / 64 / 2 / 0
Arizona+9.42+8.586 / 63 / 2 / 1
Arizona State+0.08-9.426 / 62 / 4 / 0
Arkansas-10.75+1.256 / 63 / 3 / 0
Arkansas State-3.93-0.797 / 73 / 4 / 0
Army+2.42+3.586 / 63 / 2 / 1
Auburn+1.64-0.367 / 72 / 5 / 0
Ball State-16.93-1.647 / 74 / 3 / 0
Baylor+4.33+4.006 / 62 / 3 / 1
Boise State+4.83+9.006 / 65 / 1 / 0
Boston College-8.58+8.586 / 65 / 1 / 0
Bowling Green-10.71-0.867 / 73 / 4 / 0
Buffalo-12.58+7.756 / 64 / 2 / 0
BYU+6.33+1.336 / 64 / 1 / 1
California-5.43-10.007 / 72 / 5 / 0
Central Michigan-8.00-1.577 / 73 / 3 / 1
Charlotte-24.75+0.086 / 63 / 3 / 0
Cincinnati-0.17+2.006 / 63 / 3 / 0
Clemson-0.50-5.506 / 62 / 4 / 0
Coastal Carolina-5.17-0.836 / 62 / 4 / 0
Colorado-10.83-6.006 / 62 / 3 / 1
Colorado State-7.75-4.256 / 62 / 3 / 1
Delaware-5.21+2.077 / 74 / 3 / 0
Duke+3.58+3.426 / 64 / 2 / 0
East Carolina-2.67-4.336 / 63 / 3 / 0
Eastern Michigan-5.63-2.508 / 83 / 5 / 0
Florida+6.58-1.586 / 64 / 2 / 0
Florida Atlantic-2.36-3.367 / 73 / 4 / 0
Florida International+0.50+1.176 / 64 / 1 / 1
Florida State-3.83+3.676 / 63 / 3 / 0
Fresno State+2.64+4.077 / 73 / 3 / 1
Georgia+20.42+1.256 / 64 / 2 / 0
Georgia Southern-7.75+4.256 / 65 / 1 / 0
Georgia State-5.00+8.336 / 64 / 2 / 0
Georgia Tech-2.42-7.256 / 61 / 5 / 0
Hawai'i-2.50-1.258 / 83 / 4 / 1
Houston+4.93+2.077 / 72 / 5 / 0
Illinois+1.67-2.176 / 62 / 4 / 0
Indiana+20.07-3.217 / 71 / 4 / 2
Iowa+5.00+1.836 / 63 / 3 / 0
Iowa State-2.92+0.256 / 63 / 3 / 0
Jacksonville State+1.29+0.717 / 73 / 2 / 2
James Madison+9.94+2.318 / 85 / 3 / 0
Kansas-2.75+3.426 / 62 / 4 / 0
Kansas State+9.50-7.176 / 62 / 4 / 0
Kennesaw State-6.29-3.147 / 74 / 3 / 0
Kent State-17.29-3.577 / 73 / 4 / 0
Kentucky-2.14+6.867 / 76 / 1 / 0
Liberty+7.00+13.336 / 65 / 1 / 0
Louisiana+0.71+5.007 / 74 / 3 / 0
Louisiana Tech-4.67+5.506 / 65 / 1 / 0
Louisville+5.00+0.506 / 63 / 3 / 0
LSU+12.14+8.437 / 74 / 3 / 0
Marshall-3.83-6.836 / 62 / 4 / 0
Maryland-6.25-9.926 / 62 / 4 / 0
Massachusetts-6.75+5.756 / 63 / 3 / 0
Memphis+7.43+3.297 / 74 / 3 / 0
Miami+23.42+4.256 / 64 / 2 / 0
Miami (OH)+0.36-4.367 / 72 / 5 / 0
Michigan+10.64-6.077 / 71 / 5 / 1
Michigan State-5.56-0.318 / 84 / 4 / 0
Middle Tennessee-8.29-1.717 / 74 / 3 / 0
Minnesota+0.83-2.006 / 64 / 2 / 0
Mississippi State+1.86+0.437 / 74 / 3 / 0
Missouri+3.75+3.086 / 63 / 3 / 0
Missouri State-11.43-0.867 / 73 / 4 / 0
Navy+0.67-4.506 / 62 / 4 / 0
NC State+0.58-7.926 / 61 / 4 / 1
Nebraska+9.50+9.506 / 66 / 0 / 0
Nevada-0.67+7.836 / 65 / 1 / 0
New Mexico+6.92+12.586 / 65 / 1 / 0
New Mexico State-7.93-1.647 / 73 / 3 / 1
North Carolina-5.08+3.926 / 64 / 2 / 0
North Dakota State+10.86+1.147 / 73 / 4 / 0
North Texas-1.14+7.717 / 75 / 2 / 0
Northern Illinois-16.17-10.506 / 61 / 5 / 0
Northwestern+6.83+11.676 / 64 / 2 / 0
Notre Dame+26.86+0.867 / 74 / 3 / 0
Ohio+1.29+3.577 / 72 / 4 / 1
Ohio State+25.860.007 / 74 / 2 / 1
Oklahoma+7.14-3.297 / 73 / 4 / 0
Oklahoma State+1.25+7.926 / 65 / 1 / 0
Old Dominion-6.21-9.647 / 71 / 6 / 0
Ole Miss+8.86+1.867 / 73 / 4 / 0
Oregon+12.92-12.426 / 61 / 5 / 0
Oregon State+0.25+16.756 / 66 / 0 / 0
Penn State+13.07-3.217 / 73 / 4 / 0
Pittsburgh+2.86+1.007 / 73 / 4 / 0
Purdue-9.25+3.926 / 64 / 2 / 0
Rice-15.07-1.217 / 73 / 3 / 1
Rutgers-6.92-6.926 / 62 / 4 / 0
Sacramento State-13.36-14.217 / 71 / 6 / 0
Sam Houston-12.86-3.717 / 73 / 4 / 0
San Diego State-5.00-10.717 / 72 / 5 / 0
San José State-5.50+1.647 / 74 / 3 / 0
SMU+14.25-4.086 / 63 / 3 / 0
South Alabama-1.83+0.836 / 64 / 2 / 0
South Carolina+2.17+4.506 / 63 / 3 / 0
South Florida+7.58-1.256 / 62 / 4 / 0
Southern Miss-13.17-2.336 / 62 / 4 / 0
Stanford-12.79-8.937 / 73 / 4 / 0
Syracuse-5.67+1.336 / 63 / 3 / 0
TCU+4.25-2.426 / 62 / 4 / 0
Temple-1.67-5.006 / 63 / 3 / 0
Tennessee+8.64+2.937 / 74 / 3 / 0
Texas+12.57-1.007 / 72 / 5 / 0
Texas A&M+7.64-2.797 / 74 / 3 / 0
Texas State0.00-0.506 / 62 / 4 / 0
Texas Tech+18.00-3.836 / 62 / 4 / 0
Toledo+6.36-0.217 / 74 / 3 / 0
Troy-1.50-2.507 / 73 / 4 / 0
Tulane-1.79-2.507 / 72 / 4 / 1
Tulsa-0.07+0.217 / 72 / 5 / 0
UAB-8.42+3.756 / 64 / 2 / 0
UCF-3.08+3.256 / 64 / 2 / 0
UCLA+4.50+14.647 / 76 / 1 / 0
UConn-1.17+6.676 / 65 / 1 / 0
UL Monroe-16.33-3.176 / 62 / 4 / 0
UNLV+3.21-2.797 / 74 / 3 / 0
USC+15.63-7.888 / 82 / 6 / 0
Utah+14.67+3.336 / 65 / 1 / 0
Utah State-13.25+5.756 / 64 / 2 / 0
UTEP-21.50-11.176 / 61 / 5 / 0
UTSA+1.43+3.007 / 75 / 2 / 0
Vanderbilt-3.36-7.937 / 72 / 4 / 1
Virginia+5.29-3.437 / 72 / 5 / 0
Virginia Tech+8.00-1.437 / 74 / 3 / 0
Wake Forest+2.71+15.297 / 75 / 2 / 0
Washington+7.75-7.086 / 62 / 4 / 0
Washington State-12.07-3.797 / 72 / 4 / 1
West Virginia-0.29-2.007 / 73 / 4 / 0
Western Kentucky-11.14-6.577 / 73 / 4 / 0
Western Michigan+1.57+0.577 / 72 / 4 / 1
Wisconsin+0.42+8.756 / 64 / 2 / 0
Wyoming-4.79+3.077 / 74 / 3 / 0
Michigan: identical lined-game sample (7 / 7)
Game ID / weekOpponentExpectedActualActual − expected
401858428 / 1Western Michigan+26.50+1.00-25.50
401856679 / 2Oklahoma+1.50+7.00+5.50
401858450 / 3UTEP+37.00+35.00-2.00
401858463 / 4Iowa+4.00-1.00-5.00
401858474 / 5Minnesota+6.50-6.00-12.50
401858490 / 7Penn State+6.00+3.00-3.00
401858496 / 8Indiana-7.00-7.000.00

Expected home margin = −home spread; away margins reverse sign. Actual margin = team points − opponent points, including overtime. Residual = actual − expected; zero is a push. No spread prices, stake, profit or forecast selection is inferred.

Market sources and coverage

450 eligible games; 0 identity conflicts and 0 missing line-game records remain in denominators. Missing provider/field quotes further reduce the displayed sample. No consensus blend or retrospective close is manufactured.

results: data/external/cfbd_results/2026/20261030T110217128970Z · captured 2026-10-30 11:02:17 UTC · SHA-256 d5a727fa5bd5c2e06a5c96c282c0b472e62b770203ea85af614075207ee99c90

lines: data/external/cfbd_line_snapshots/2026/979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148.json · captured 2026-10-30 09:00:02 UTC · SHA-256 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

One full-season lines response is selected by latest verified acquisition; earlier captures and the independent GraphQL observation journal remain separate. Results use the latest verified full regular-season capture and its paired FBS roster. Capture time is not bookmaker publication time.

Download market comparison and provenance

Line drift

Open → latest archived drift

Consensus median home margins from committed CFBD line archives. Drift is latest minus open. This is not a closing-line board and not the live Edges page.

67 games · 2025 Week 14
MatchupOpenLatest archivedDriftSRS proj
Kentucky @ Louisville+4.5-1.5-6.0+4.8
Wisconsin @ Minnesota+2.5-2.5-5.0+0.3
Clemson @ South Carolina-2.5+2.5+5.0+1.9
Florida State @ Florida+2.5-1.5-4.0-2.8
Georgia Southern @ Marshall+6.5+10.5+4.0+9.9
Ohio State @ Michigan-5.5-9.5-4.0-11.3
Texas Tech @ West Virginia-20.5-24.5-4.0-20.7
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan-6.5-10.0-3.5-6.2
Georgia @ Georgia Tech(N)-13.0-16.5-3.5-10.9
Utah @ Kansas-13.5-10.0+3.5-13.1
Penn State @ Rutgers-10.5-14.0-3.5-9.9
Arkansas State @ App State+1.5-1.5-3.0+1.4
SMU @ California-10.5-13.5-3.0-14.3
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina-21.5-24.0-2.5-18.0
UL Monroe @ Louisiana+13.5+11.0-2.5+12.3
Rice @ South Florida+26.0+28.5+2.5+25.8
Boise State @ Utah State-3.8-1.5+2.3-3.3
Missouri @ Arkansas-2.5-4.5-2.0-1.8
Toledo @ Central Michigan-9.5-11.5-2.0-7.7
Wyoming @ Hawai'i+10.5+8.5-2.0+8.3
Navy @ Memphis+5.5+3.5-2.0+8.6
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State-9.5-7.5+2.0-7.9
UNLV @ Nevada-9.5-7.5+2.0-10.0
Georgia State @ Old Dominion+26.5+28.5+2.0+23.6
UAB @ Tulsa+7.5+9.5+2.0+5.6
Army @ UTSA+6.5+8.5+2.0+7.9
Virginia Tech @ Virginia+10.5+8.5-2.0+12.9
Alabama @ Auburn-5.5-7.0-1.5-3.5
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts-15.5-14.0+1.5-13.7
Iowa @ Nebraska-4.0-5.5-1.5-5.8
LSU @ Oklahoma+10.0+11.5+1.5+9.6
Cincinnati @ TCU+4.5+3.0-1.5+1.9
Charlotte @ Tulane+29.5+31.0+1.5+26.5
Oregon State @ Washington State+12.5+14.0+1.5+16.1
UCF @ BYU+18.5+17.5-1.0+17.8
Ohio @ Buffalo-6.0-7.0-1.0-5.0
Wake Forest @ Duke+3.5+2.5-1.0+2.0
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State-2.5-1.5+1.0+0.0
Ball State @ Miami (OH)+17.5+16.5-1.0+16.5
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State+4.5+3.5-1.0+7.4
Temple @ North Texas+19.5+20.5+1.0+19.5
Fresno State @ San José State-2.5-3.5-1.0-5.9
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee+3.5+2.5-1.0+1.4
UCLA @ USC+20.5+21.5+1.0+20.2
Oregon @ Washington-7.5-6.5+1.0-3.0
Arizona @ Arizona State-1.5-2.0-0.5-1.2
UTEP @ Delaware+5.0+4.5-0.5+2.9
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic-6.5-7.0-0.5-7.7
Colorado @ Kansas State+17.0+16.5-0.5+12.0
Kennesaw State @ Liberty-2.0-2.5-0.5+0.3
Maryland @ Michigan State(N)+4.5+4.0-0.5-0.9
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State+3.0+2.5-0.5+2.1
North Carolina @ NC State+7.5+7.0-0.5+9.6
Kent State @ Northern Illinois+4.5+5.0+0.5+5.6
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State-14.5-14.0+0.5-16.4
Miami @ Pittsburgh-7.0-6.5+0.5-5.3
Troy @ Southern Miss+6.5+7.0+0.5+3.1
South Alabama @ Texas State+9.0+9.5+0.5+8.4
Air Force @ Colorado State-2.8-2.5+0.3-2.6
Houston @ Baylor+2.5+2.5+0.0+1.4
Northwestern @ Illinois+7.0+7.0+0.0+7.7
San Diego State @ New Mexico-1.5-1.5+0.0-1.6
Indiana @ Purdue-28.5-28.5+0.0-23.9
Florida International @ Sam Houston(N)-10.5-10.5+0.0-9.9
Notre Dame @ Stanford-32.5-32.5+0.0-24.0
Boston College @ Syracuse-3.0-3.0+0.0+3.9
Texas A&M @ Texas-2.5-2.5+0.0-2.8
Home margin convention · basis: cfbd_lines_consensus_median · highlighted drift is 3+ points either way

Model output, not betting advice. Open and latest-archived margins come from committed CFBD line archives (median across providers). latest_archived is not a historical closing line. Drift = latest_archived_home_margin − open_home_margin.

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