Play-call tendencies
Any FBS offense · 2023–2025 regular seasons · staff-tenure context and a separate later-game classifier check
2025 · 13 team-games · 872 classified regulation snaps. Staff associations are sourced season records, not proof of who called a snap. Seasons with multiple coaches in the same role are excluded from a named tenure selection because within-season boundaries are unknown.
2025 Head coach: Chuck Martin
Sourced play-caller tenure unavailable for this selection; staff titles are shown separately.
Recorded choices
| Type | Snaps | Share | Other FBS offenses | Fourth downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rush | 426 | 48.9% | 47.2% | 16 |
| pass | 364 | 41.7% | 44.9% | 8 |
| punt | 59 | 6.8% | 5.7% | 59 |
| field goal | 23 | 2.6% | 2.2% | 19 |
Fourth-down go rate: 23.5% (n=102).
Down and distance
| Season | Down | Distance | Rush share of rush/pass | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 1-3 | 100.0% | 11 |
| 2025 | 1 | 4-7 | 50.0% | 14 |
| 2025 | 1 | 8+ | 53.2% | 329 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1-3 | 73.7% | 38 |
| 2025 | 2 | 4-7 | 57.3% | 75 |
| 2025 | 2 | 8+ | 52.5% | 141 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1-3 | 69.8% | 43 |
| 2025 | 3 | 4-7 | 42.6% | 47 |
| 2025 | 3 | 8+ | 32.4% | 68 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1-3 | 92.9% | 14 |
| 2025 | 4 | 4-7 | Too few | 3 |
| 2025 | 4 | 8+ | 28.6% | 7 |
Fourth downs by field position
| Season | Yards to goal | Go rate | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (-0.001, 20.0] | 33.3% | 12 |
| 2025 | (20.0, 40.0] | 40.0% | 25 |
| 2025 | (40.0, 60.0] | 29.2% | 24 |
| 2025 | (60.0, 80.0] | 5.7% | 35 |
| 2025 | (80.0, 100.0] | 16.7% | 6 |
Later-game classifier validation
Separate retrospective check: fixed 2023–2024 training, 2025 evaluation. Team/tenure filters above describe plays; they do not refit this classifier. Inputs: down, distance, yards to goal, seconds remaining and score before the snap. Predicts recorded type, not intended call or future accuracy.
229,239 training snaps / 1748 games; 117,378 later snaps / 888 games. Last training kickoff: 2024-12-14T20:00:00+00:00; first test kickoff: 2025-08-23T16:00:00+00:00.
| 2025 evaluation | n | Accuracy | Log loss ↓ | Multiclass Brier ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest (league) | 117378 | 67.3% | 0.599 | 0.406 |
| Situation baseline (league) | 117378 | 62.6% | 0.657 | 0.448 |
| Team baseline (league) | 117378 | 48.5% | 0.959 | 0.570 |
| Miami (OH) forest | 872 | 68.5% | 0.591 | 0.396 |
| Miami (OH) situation | 872 | 59.1% | 0.695 | 0.467 |
| Miami (OH) team baseline | 872 | 48.9% | 0.994 | 0.582 |
Miami (OH): class metrics (2025 only)
| Class | Precision | Recall | F1 | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rush | 67.5% | 73.7% | 70.5% | 426 |
| pass | 64.4% | 58.2% | 61.2% | 364 |
| punt | 96.4% | 91.5% | 93.9% | 59 |
| field_goal | 77.3% | 73.9% | 75.6% | 23 |
2025 situation-adjusted fourth downs: actual 23.5%, forest expected 27.9%, residual -4.3 percentage points (n=102). Descriptive comparison, not an optimal decision rule.
Calibration by class and probability band
rush
| Band | n | Mean predicted | Observed rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 132 | 8.7% | 10.6% |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 161 | 30.5% | 28.0% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 367 | 51.8% | 53.7% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 138 | 67.4% | 71.0% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 74 | 88.9% | 97.3% |
pass
| Band | n | Mean predicted | Observed rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 150 | 8.1% | 2.0% |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 146 | 32.7% | 27.4% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 366 | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 165 | 69.3% | 71.5% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 45 | 82.6% | 73.3% |
punt
| Band | n | Mean predicted | Observed rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 807 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 9 | 28.5% | 44.4% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 8 | 53.8% | 87.5% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 4 | 70.1% | 75.0% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 44 | 95.9% | 100.0% |
field_goal
| Band | n | Mean predicted | Observed rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 845 | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 5 | 29.3% | 40.0% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 4 | 48.8% | 25.0% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 4 | 68.8% | 75.0% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 14 | 91.3% | 92.9% |
Held-out predictions from pre-snap situations
Game 401752818 · down 1, 10 yards, 75 to goal, 3579s remaining, score differential 0: rush 54.1% · pass 45.9% · punt 0.0% · field_goal 0.0%. Recorded: pass.
Game 401752818 · down 2, 11 yards, 76 to goal, 3556s remaining, score differential 0: rush 39.5% · pass 60.4% · punt 0.1% · field_goal 0.0%. Recorded: pass.
Game 401752818 · down 3, 4 yards, 69 to goal, 3525s remaining, score differential 0: rush 25.4% · pass 74.6% · punt 0.0% · field_goal 0.0%. Recorded: pass.
Game 401752818 · down 4, 4 yards, 69 to goal, 3514s remaining, score differential 0: rush 1.0% · pass 2.9% · punt 96.0% · field_goal 0.1%. Recorded: punt.
Game 401752818 · down 1, 10 yards, 75 to goal, 3131s remaining, score differential -7: rush 56.0% · pass 44.0% · punt 0.0% · field_goal 0.0%. Recorded: pass.
Game 401752818 · down 1, 15 yards, 65 to goal, 3074s remaining, score differential -7: rush 50.5% · pass 49.1% · punt 0.2% · field_goal 0.1%. Recorded: rush.
Game 401752818 · down 2, 13 yards, 63 to goal, 3030s remaining, score differential -7: rush 35.2% · pass 64.5% · punt 0.3% · field_goal 0.1%. Recorded: pass.
Game 401752818 · down 1, 1 yards, 1 to goal, 3011s remaining, score differential -7: rush 97.8% · pass 2.2% · punt 0.0% · field_goal 0.0%. Recorded: rush.
Sources, labels and method
Recorded play type, not intended call. Sacks are pass; rushes may include scrambles/RPO. No reliable scramble/RPO flag. Ambiguous fumbles, kneels, spikes and overtime excluded. Pre-snap score reconstructed from preceding play in game order; first full-game snap starts 0-0. Incomplete opening scores stay unavailable. Forest: 80 trees, depth 12, leaf minimum 30, seed 237. Probabilities use a fixed 1e-6 floor. Baselines use training-only smoothed class counts by down/distance/field band or offense. No hyperparameter search, recalibration, or frozen 2026 outcomes.
Model/source contract: 0bb9588e0ff737030f7adbf358052ba583fa9bef109903cf1b00c0ddae0e0866
51 hashed Starter Pack inputs. Full metrics, confusion matrices, calibration and source hashes: download JSON.
CFBD /coaches · captured October 19, 2026; coach identity is retrospective.