Feature explanations
Explanations of identified saved fits, with separate evaluation populations and dates.
Ridge margin explanations
Ridge predicts Home Margin in points. Positive favors home. This saved-fit comparison does not change primary recommendations or estimate win probabilities.
Ridge comparison unavailable for 2026 Week 9. frozen environment mismatch
Retrospective 2024 confirmation · 604 games
| Metric (points) | Result | 95% block interval |
|---|---|---|
| MAE | 12.46 | 12.01 to 13.07 |
| RMSE | 15.58 | 14.90 to 16.33 |
| BIAS | -0.64 | -1.88 to 0.51 |
Previously inspected season; source publication times unknown. Original training-target defect retained. Not prospective or betting evidence. Intervals use 13 season/type/week blocks; they do not guarantee future performance.
Historical head-to-head accuracy is unavailable without a verified matched primary forecast artifact. These are Ridge-only errors.
Historical Ridge output · 2026 Week 9
Retained history, not current predictions. Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:22:30 CDT; cutoff Week 8.
Kent State at Sacramento State: Home Margin -2.42 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.07
- Away talent
- +0.36
- Home Elo
- -16.79
- Away Elo
- +12.97
- Home adjusted EPA
- -5.67
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.94
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.76
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.11
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -2.42 points.
Southern Miss at UL Monroe: Home Margin -5.36 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.59
- Away talent
- -0.45
- Home Elo
- -15.23
- Away Elo
- +8.43
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.81
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.90
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.94
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.39
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -5.36 points.
Notre Dame at Navy: Home Margin -27.52 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -3.45
- Away talent
- -4.00
- Home Elo
- -1.11
- Away Elo
- -15.05
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.14
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.82
- Away adjusted EPA
- -2.26
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.18
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -27.52 points.
South Carolina at Oklahoma: Home Margin +3.70 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.61
- Away talent
- -3.09
- Home Elo
- +6.15
- Away Elo
- -4.97
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.64
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +4.63
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.63
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.22
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.70 points.
Oregon State at Fresno State: Home Margin +1.15 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.38
- Away talent
- -0.79
- Home Elo
- +3.30
- Away Elo
- -2.56
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.68
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.97
- Away adjusted EPA
- -1.04
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.29
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +1.15 points.
Florida Atlantic at North Texas: Home Margin +19.82 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.31
- Away talent
- -0.36
- Home Elo
- +4.78
- Away Elo
- +7.32
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.24
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.10
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.88
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.71
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +19.82 points.
Michigan at Rutgers: Home Margin -15.43 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.30
- Away talent
- -3.36
- Home Elo
- -5.27
- Away Elo
- -5.82
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.12
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.05
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.27
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.22
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -15.43 points.
Baylor at UCF: Home Margin -3.01 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.96
- Away talent
- -1.67
- Home Elo
- -1.42
- Away Elo
- -2.64
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.34
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.40
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.35
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.49
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -3.01 points.
Texas State at Boise State: Home Margin +12.20 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.67
- Away talent
- -0.68
- Home Elo
- +6.12
- Away Elo
- -1.34
- Home adjusted EPA
- +2.54
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.97
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.21
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.16
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.20 points.
Florida at Georgia: Home Margin +17.17 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +4.03
- Away talent
- -3.38
- Home Elo
- +15.67
- Away Elo
- -3.41
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.59
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.07
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.75
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.50
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +17.17 points.
Virginia at Wake Forest: Home Margin +12.80 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.04
- Away talent
- -1.44
- Home Elo
- +7.62
- Away Elo
- -1.76
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.22
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.55
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.51
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.79
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.80 points.
Tulane at Charlotte: Home Margin -16.58 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.07
- Away talent
- -1.09
- Home Elo
- -15.54
- Away Elo
- +0.58
- Home adjusted EPA
- -4.62
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.33
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.88
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.05
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -16.58 points.
Arizona at Texas Tech: Home Margin +3.16 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.84
- Away talent
- -1.43
- Home Elo
- +9.47
- Away Elo
- -7.86
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.94
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.03
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.27
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.53
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.16 points.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State: Home Margin +1.72 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.93
- Away talent
- -1.16
- Home Elo
- +0.89
- Away Elo
- +1.37
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.35
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.66
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.26
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.74
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +1.72 points.
Clemson at Florida State: Home Margin +5.46 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.14
- Away talent
- -3.09
- Home Elo
- +2.71
- Away Elo
- -0.46
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.09
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.28
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.82
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.70
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.46 points.
Stanford at Louisville: Home Margin +25.33 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.59
- Away talent
- -1.50
- Home Elo
- +5.96
- Away Elo
- +9.49
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.61
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.85
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.24
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.24
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +25.33 points.
Illinois at Maryland: Home Margin -6.47 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.40
- Away talent
- -1.48
- Home Elo
- -7.15
- Away Elo
- -1.73
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.25
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.61
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.04
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.32
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -6.47 points.
Nevada at UCLA: Home Margin +17.52 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.90
- Away talent
- +0.08
- Home Elo
- +5.84
- Away Elo
- +1.77
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.57
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +4.94
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.68
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.97
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +17.52 points.
Temple at East Carolina: Home Margin +5.10 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.51
- Away talent
- -0.74
- Home Elo
- -2.80
- Away Elo
- +5.75
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.10
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.56
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.05
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.02
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.10 points.
Army at Memphis: Home Margin +9.46 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.94
- Away talent
- +2.58
- Home Elo
- +3.12
- Away Elo
- -1.49
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.10
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.57
- Away adjusted EPA
- -1.11
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.10
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.46 points.
New Mexico at San José State: Home Margin -10.96 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.00
- Away talent
- -0.10
- Home Elo
- -5.34
- Away Elo
- -4.39
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.54
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.57
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.04
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.05
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -10.96 points.
Kansas at TCU: Home Margin +2.86 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.50
- Away talent
- -1.28
- Home Elo
- +2.46
- Away Elo
- -2.13
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.18
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.84
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.20
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.40
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +2.86 points.
California at NC State: Home Margin +10.26 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.74
- Away talent
- -1.96
- Home Elo
- -1.80
- Away Elo
- +7.40
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.65
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.85
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.11
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.42
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.26 points.
Washington State at San Diego State: Home Margin -3.72 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.37
- Away talent
- -0.73
- Home Elo
- -8.68
- Away Elo
- +2.54
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.80
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.86
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.40
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.54
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -3.72 points.
Missouri at Arkansas: Home Margin -8.27 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.64
- Away talent
- -2.54
- Home Elo
- -0.23
- Away Elo
- -6.16
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.85
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.40
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.82
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.19
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -8.27 points.
Arizona State at BYU: Home Margin +14.21 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.12
- Away talent
- -1.66
- Home Elo
- +5.81
- Away Elo
- +1.16
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.61
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.11
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.60
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.38
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +14.21 points.
UAB at South Florida: Home Margin +10.51 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.25
- Away talent
- -0.49
- Home Elo
- +2.83
- Away Elo
- +3.15
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.20
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.71
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.71
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.31
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.51 points.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State: Home Margin +6.57 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.05
- Away talent
- -0.16
- Home Elo
- -4.90
- Away Elo
- +6.31
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.61
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.18
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.90
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.05
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.57 points.
Northern Illinois at UNLV: Home Margin +19.54 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.18
- Away talent
- +0.22
- Home Elo
- -1.05
- Away Elo
- +11.93
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.34
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.71
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.67
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.36
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +19.54 points.
Florida International at Liberty: Home Margin +17.43 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.60
- Away talent
- -0.50
- Home Elo
- +7.75
- Away Elo
- +3.02
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.21
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.76
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.34
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.59
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +17.43 points.
Marshall at Old Dominion: Home Margin -5.62 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.23
- Away talent
- -0.37
- Home Elo
- -11.00
- Away Elo
- +4.24
- Home adjusted EPA
- -6.35
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.36
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.40
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.48
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -5.62 points.
Purdue at Penn State: Home Margin +16.28 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.90
- Away talent
- -1.42
- Home Elo
- +8.69
- Away Elo
- +2.43
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.18
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.24
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.03
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.80
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +16.28 points.
Bowling Green at Western Michigan: Home Margin +11.70 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.03
- Away talent
- -0.10
- Home Elo
- -1.33
- Away Elo
- +7.53
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.54
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.04
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.91
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.31
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +11.70 points.
SMU at Syracuse: Home Margin -12.35 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.64
- Away talent
- -2.09
- Home Elo
- -6.09
- Away Elo
- -6.48
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.83
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.07
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.52
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.93
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -12.35 points.
Boston College at Duke: Home Margin +7.65 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.92
- Away talent
- -1.03
- Home Elo
- +3.46
- Away Elo
- +1.24
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.36
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.32
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.45
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.19
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.65 points.
Wisconsin at Iowa: Home Margin +2.39 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.43
- Away talent
- -2.12
- Home Elo
- +10.13
- Away Elo
- -5.13
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.73
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.99
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.13
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -5.15
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +2.39 points.
Minnesota at Indiana: Home Margin +28.33 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.54
- Away talent
- -1.73
- Home Elo
- +17.33
- Away Elo
- +2.14
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.22
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.70
- Away adjusted EPA
- +3.78
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.50
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +28.33 points.
Colorado State at Utah State: Home Margin +7.60 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.23
- Away talent
- -0.83
- Home Elo
- -4.96
- Away Elo
- +9.12
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.59
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.67
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.35
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.23
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.60 points.
UTEP at North Dakota State: Home Margin +27.23 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -0.49
- Away talent
- -0.28
- Home Elo
- +3.40
- Away Elo
- +13.87
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.37
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.64
- Away adjusted EPA
- +4.75
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.86
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +27.23 points.
App State at Georgia Southern: Home Margin +5.47 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.61
- Away talent
- -0.64
- Home Elo
- -4.65
- Away Elo
- +5.43
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.90
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.16
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.25
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.64
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.47 points.
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh: Home Margin +10.05 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.98
- Away talent
- -1.96
- Home Elo
- +2.05
- Away Elo
- +2.72
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.44
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.21
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.18
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.46
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.05 points.
Miami at North Carolina: Home Margin -18.42 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.84
- Away talent
- -3.32
- Home Elo
- -1.92
- Away Elo
- -13.36
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.38
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.72
- Away adjusted EPA
- -2.09
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.77
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -18.42 points.
Washington at Nebraska: Home Margin +7.73 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.02
- Away talent
- -2.23
- Home Elo
- +7.65
- Away Elo
- -5.02
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.46
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.57
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.69
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.27
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.73 points.
UConn at Air Force: Home Margin -2.34 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- -2.74
- Away talent
- -0.96
- Home Elo
- -2.55
- Away Elo
- +0.58
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.38
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.64
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.06
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.84
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -2.34 points.
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama: Home Margin -3.59 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.04
- Away talent
- +0.15
- Home Elo
- -5.27
- Away Elo
- +1.72
- Home adjusted EPA
- -0.26
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.17
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.62
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.27
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -3.59 points.
Ohio State at USC: Home Margin -9.41 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.06
- Away talent
- -4.12
- Home Elo
- +7.19
- Away Elo
- -14.71
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.44
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.50
- Away adjusted EPA
- -1.03
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -4.58
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -9.41 points.
Northwestern at Oregon: Home Margin +4.26 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.85
- Away talent
- -1.32
- Home Elo
- +8.28
- Away Elo
- -6.40
- Home adjusted EPA
- -2.55
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.75
- Away adjusted EPA
- -1.43
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.77
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.26 points.
Auburn at Ole Miss: Home Margin +12.67 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +2.93
- Away talent
- -2.74
- Home Elo
- +12.54
- Away Elo
- -4.10
- Home adjusted EPA
- +1.37
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.23
- Away adjusted EPA
- +0.92
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -2.35
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.67 points.
Kansas State at Colorado: Home Margin -8.58 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +1.51
- Away talent
- -1.63
- Home Elo
- -8.06
- Away Elo
- -2.29
- Home adjusted EPA
- -3.67
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +2.28
- Away adjusted EPA
- +1.23
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.79
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -8.58 points.
Utah at Cincinnati: Home Margin -11.24 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.61
- Away talent
- -1.40
- Home Elo
- +0.30
- Away Elo
- -10.12
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.30
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +0.26
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.61
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -3.44
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -11.24 points.
Mississippi State at Texas: Home Margin +15.33 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +3.86
- Away talent
- -2.50
- Home Elo
- +11.88
- Away Elo
- -1.07
- Home adjusted EPA
- -1.82
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +3.54
- Away adjusted EPA
- -0.15
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -1.26
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +15.33 points.
Troy at James Madison: Home Margin +21.64 points
Explain this margin
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
- Home talent
- +0.18
- Away talent
- -0.39
- Home Elo
- +9.22
- Away Elo
- +5.33
- Home adjusted EPA
- +0.46
- Home adjusted EPA allowed
- +1.45
- Away adjusted EPA
- +2.68
- Away adjusted EPA allowed
- -0.14
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +21.64 points.
Recipe availability and method
Paired RF, standalone XGBoost, corrected FastAI, standalone Logistic and the tutorial stack remain unavailable under their separate holds/evaluation gates. SHAP is an explanation workflow, not another predictive model.
Ridge explanations use independent-feature linear SHAP with all 3,916 pre-2024 training rows as background. They explain the exact evaluated Ridge fit, not causal effects or the separate historical XGBoost margin model below.
Model SHA256: 835eaeeb0c3f24dc70d607cba4db93562ba0791fe0cc5f683e899cba588c9c37
Input SHA256: unavailable
Environment SHA256: unavailable
Historical XGBoost margin explanations
Fixed artifact generated 2026-09-28T18:03:32.830030+00:00 · 1,130 row-split test games (2023–2024) · training pack notebook 06
Separate fixed-history fit. The row-order split overlaps in time and its full-frame encoding includes a test-only Week 16 category. This is not the Ridge evaluation or a training-only chronological benchmark.
Explains the pack's research margin regressor, not the shipped StackedEnsemble win-probability model. The regressor predicts training Margin (away points minus home points), so a positive SHAP value pushes the forecast toward the away team. Held-out RMSE 17.9 points; baseline prediction -2.8.
Which features push a forecast toward each team?
Each dot is a held-out game. Right favors the away team; left favors the home team. Highlighted dots have above-median feature values.Which features matter most overall?
Longer bars mean a larger average contribution, regardless of which team benefits. Units: points of margin per game.
away_elo
Mean |SHAP| 4.91 points · higher value pushes toward away (value–SHAP correlation 0.94).
| Feature | Mean |SHAP| | Direction | Points plotted |
|---|---|---|---|
| away_elo | 4.908 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_elo | 4.679 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| away_adjusted_success_allowed | 1.975 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| home_adjusted_success | 1.796 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| away_adjusted_success | 1.781 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_adjusted_success_allowed | 1.440 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| away_adjusted_epa | 1.432 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_adjusted_epa_allowed | 1.428 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| away_adjusted_epa_allowed | 1.418 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| home_adjusted_epa | 1.320 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
Method
Model: XGBRegressor(eval_metric='rmse', random_state=77) on 42 columns (ten continuous pack features plus week and conference indicators).
Original saved split description: chronological 75/25 in the pack's row order (train_test_split, shuffle=False); 3,390 training rows. Source dates are not globally sorted; this description does not establish chronological validation.
Explainer: shap.TreeExplainer(feature_perturbation='tree_path_dependent'). Each feature plots a bounded sample of held-out games; the table lists the full mean |SHAP|.
Source notebook: model_pack/06_shap_interpretability.ipynb. Recipe unchanged; only the plots were replaced by data the site draws itself.