When teams gamble
Go-for-it rates on clean 4th-down decisions, 2003–2026 — 254,722 plays from the licensed CFBD Starter Pack and current-season captures. Penalties, timeouts, kickoffs, and end-of-period plays excluded. This describes what teams did, not what they should have done.
Aggregate decisions across 2003–2026. Go rate is the share of decisions to attempt a conversion; higher is more aggressive, not necessarily better. Unknown buckets retain decisions with out-of-range source distance or field position; those decisions remain in overall totals.
2026 contributes a partial regular season through provider Week 2.
Decisions
254,722
Overall go rate
21%
Seasons
24
Share of 4th downs where the offense kept the ball, by yards to go.
By yards to goal at the snap. The 40-20 'go zone' is where teams gamble most.
Score differential from the offense's perspective.
Share of clean fourth-down decisions where the offense went for it, by season. Partial-season coverage is noted above.
Team go rates
| # | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Army | 35% | 66% | 19% | 14% | 1806 |
| 2 | Delaware | 32% | 68% | 37% | 9% | 114 |
| 3 | Navy | 32% | 62% | 17% | 12% | 1791 |
| 4 | Air Force | 32% | 59% | 18% | 11% | 1703 |
| 5 | Baylor | 29% | 62% | 24% | 12% | 2137 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 28% | 63% | 23% | 10% | 2010 |
| 7 | App State | 27% | 59% | 22% | 8% | 1151 |
| 8 | Oregon | 26% | 56% | 18% | 12% | 1918 |
| 9 | Charlotte | 26% | 55% | 25% | 11% | 1089 |
| 10 | Florida Atlantic | 26% | 53% | 22% | 12% | 1862 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 25% | 56% | 19% | 11% | 1428 |
| 12 | Houston | 25% | 52% | 19% | 11% | 1841 |
| 13 | Old Dominion | 25% | 50% | 23% | 10% | 1174 |
| 14 | North Texas | 25% | 49% | 20% | 11% | 1877 |
| 15 | Western Michigan | 24% | 52% | 18% | 9% | 1916 |
| 16 | Massachusetts | 24% | 50% | 25% | 11% | 1480 |
| 17 | Liberty | 24% | 57% | 16% | 9% | 768 |
| 18 | Kennesaw State | 24% | 55% | 15% | 12% | 409 |
| 19 | USC | 24% | 52% | 16% | 10% | 1857 |
| 20 | Nevada | 24% | 51% | 20% | 10% | 1821 |
| 21 | Hawai'i | 24% | 51% | 21% | 11% | 1874 |
| 22 | Bowling Green | 24% | 51% | 20% | 12% | 2039 |
| 23 | Ole Miss | 24% | 49% | 18% | 11% | 2064 |
| 24 | Georgia Tech | 24% | 54% | 17% | 11% | 1984 |
| 25 | Western Kentucky | 24% | 47% | 20% | 11% | 1688 |
Top 25 of 136. Min 100 decisions. Click a column to sort.