HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
Probability calibration
Scoring rules
SCORING RULES — 2025 SEASONBRIER
0.1850
LOG LOSS
0.5489
ACCURACY
74.2%
N
550
Brier 0.25 and log loss 0.693 are coin-flip baselines — lower is better. Accuracy is the pick-winner rate, not the betting bar.
Brier score measures squared probability error. Log loss penalizes confident wrong predictions more strongly. Both evaluate forecast probabilities, rather than betting profit.
Pooled reliability
POOLED RELIABILITY — ALL GRADED WEEKSEach probability range groups games with similar predicted win chances. Gap = actual minus predicted, in percentage points (pp). Games is the number of graded games. Orange gaps exceed 10 percentage points in either direction.
| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 119 | 55.3% | 67.2% | +12.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 147 | 65.6% | 64.6% | -1.0pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 134 | 75.2% | 73.9% | -1.3pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 144 | 84.6% | 88.9% | +4.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 6 | 90.5% | 100.0% | +9.5pp |
2025 week 5
2025 WEEK 5 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 17 | 54.8% | 70.6% | +15.8pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 66.2% | 84.6% | +18.4pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.1% | 72.7% | -2.4pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 8 | 84.4% | 87.5% | +3.1pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 6
2025 WEEK 6 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 10 | 55.9% | 70.0% | +14.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 64.6% | 69.2% | +4.6pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 6 | 73.5% | 50.0% | -23.5pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 20 | 83.9% | 90.0% | +6.1pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 7
2025 WEEK 7 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 15 | 54.8% | 66.7% | +11.9pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 15 | 65.1% | 60.0% | -5.1pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 16 | 74.5% | 75.0% | +0.5pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 8 | 86.1% | 87.5% | +1.4pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 8
2025 WEEK 8 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 12 | 54.3% | 58.3% | +4.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 12 | 66.5% | 75.0% | +8.5pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 74.7% | 73.7% | -1.0pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 15 | 84.0% | 66.7% | -17.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 9
2025 WEEK 9 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 9 | 55.6% | 66.7% | +11.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 16 | 64.1% | 62.5% | -1.6pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 13 | 75.2% | 76.9% | +1.7pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 13 | 85.3% | 100.0% | +14.7pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 1 | 90.6% | 100.0% | +9.4pp |
2025 week 10
2025 WEEK 10 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 8 | 56.3% | 50.0% | -6.3pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 17 | 66.0% | 58.8% | -7.2pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.6% | 81.8% | +6.2pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 14 | 83.9% | 78.6% | -5.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 11
2025 WEEK 11 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 13 | 54.9% | 61.5% | +6.6pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 12 | 66.0% | 83.3% | +17.3pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 14 | 76.3% | 50.0% | -26.3pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 9 | 85.5% | 77.8% | -7.7pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 1 | 90.4% | 100.0% | +9.6pp |
2025 week 12
2025 WEEK 12 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 7 | 55.9% | 71.4% | +15.6pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 14 | 65.3% | 50.0% | -15.3pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 14 | 76.0% | 92.9% | +16.8pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 19 | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 90.2% | 100.0% | +9.8pp |
2025 week 13
2025 WEEK 13 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 10 | 56.0% | 90.0% | +34.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 64.6% | 61.5% | -3.1pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 17 | 74.8% | 76.5% | +1.7pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 17 | 84.7% | 100.0% | +15.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 90.8% | 100.0% | +9.2pp |
2025 week 14
2025 WEEK 14 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 16 | 55.9% | 75.0% | +19.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 18 | 67.6% | 61.1% | -6.5pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.4% | 81.8% | +6.4pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 20 | 85.1% | 90.0% | +4.9pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 week 15
2025 WEEK 15 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 2 | 51.8% | 0.0% | -51.8pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 4 | 63.8% | 25.0% | -38.8pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 2 | 76.0% | 50.0% | -26.0pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 1 | 88.6% | 100.0% | +11.4pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |