Probability calibration
Legacy 2025 evaluation: model identity is not embedded in this artifact. Its inspected producer, analysis/calibration_export.py, used StackedEnsemble trained on 2016–2024. This historical probability research is separate from the Games page’s EPA-OLS or SP+ spread projections. It does not validate the current card. Historical feature availability and shuffled internal stacking folds limit prospective interpretation.
- Output:
- Win-probability reliability; Brier and log loss
- Model:
- Artifact identity unavailable; inspected legacy producer uses StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Features:
- Artifact feature snapshot unavailable; inspected producer uses the Model Pack contract
- Evaluation:
- Unavailable — legacy artifact lacks embedded evaluation identity; not current-card validation
Scoring rules
Scoring rules — 2025 seasonBrier 0.25 and log loss 0.693 are coin-flip baselines — lower is better. Accuracy is the pick-winner rate, not the betting bar.
Brier score measures squared probability error. Log loss penalizes confident wrong predictions more strongly. Both evaluate forecast probabilities, rather than betting profit.
Do predicted win chances match observed wins?
All graded weeks · each dot groups games with similar probabilities. The closer to the diagonal, the better the agreement.
Each probability range groups games with similar predicted win chances. Gap = actual minus predicted, in percentage points (pp). Games is the number of graded games. Highlighted gaps exceed 10 percentage points in either direction.
| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 119 | 55.3% | 67.2% | +12.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 147 | 65.6% | 64.6% | -1.0pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 134 | 75.2% | 73.9% | -1.3pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 144 | 84.6% | 88.9% | +4.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 6 | 90.5% | 100.0% | +9.5pp |
2025 Week 5
2025 Week 5 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 17 | 54.8% | 70.6% | +15.8pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 66.2% | 84.6% | +18.4pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.1% | 72.7% | -2.4pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 8 | 84.4% | 87.5% | +3.1pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 6
2025 Week 6 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 10 | 55.9% | 70.0% | +14.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 64.6% | 69.2% | +4.6pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 6 | 73.5% | 50.0% | -23.5pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 20 | 83.9% | 90.0% | +6.1pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 7
2025 Week 7 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 15 | 54.8% | 66.7% | +11.9pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 15 | 65.1% | 60.0% | -5.1pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 16 | 74.5% | 75.0% | +0.5pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 8 | 86.1% | 87.5% | +1.4pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 8
2025 Week 8 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 12 | 54.3% | 58.3% | +4.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 12 | 66.5% | 75.0% | +8.5pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 74.7% | 73.7% | -1.0pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 15 | 84.0% | 66.7% | -17.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 9
2025 Week 9 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 9 | 55.6% | 66.7% | +11.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 16 | 64.1% | 62.5% | -1.6pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 13 | 75.2% | 76.9% | +1.7pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 13 | 85.3% | 100.0% | +14.7pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 1 | 90.6% | 100.0% | +9.4pp |
2025 Week 10
2025 Week 10 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 8 | 56.3% | 50.0% | -6.3pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 17 | 66.0% | 58.8% | -7.2pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.6% | 81.8% | +6.2pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 14 | 83.9% | 78.6% | -5.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 11
2025 Week 11 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 13 | 54.9% | 61.5% | +6.6pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 12 | 66.0% | 83.3% | +17.3pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 14 | 76.3% | 50.0% | -26.3pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 9 | 85.5% | 77.8% | -7.7pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 1 | 90.4% | 100.0% | +9.6pp |
2025 Week 12
2025 Week 12 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 7 | 55.9% | 71.4% | +15.6pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 14 | 65.3% | 50.0% | -15.3pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 14 | 76.0% | 92.9% | +16.8pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 19 | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 90.2% | 100.0% | +9.8pp |
2025 Week 13
2025 Week 13 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 10 | 56.0% | 90.0% | +34.0pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 13 | 64.6% | 61.5% | -3.1pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 17 | 74.8% | 76.5% | +1.7pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 17 | 84.7% | 100.0% | +15.3pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 90.8% | 100.0% | +9.2pp |
2025 Week 14
2025 Week 14 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 16 | 55.9% | 75.0% | +19.1pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 18 | 67.6% | 61.1% | -6.5pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 11 | 75.4% | 81.8% | +6.4pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 20 | 85.1% | 90.0% | +4.9pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |
2025 Week 15
2025 Week 15 — graded 2026-08-06| Probability range | Games | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 2 | 51.8% | 0.0% | -51.8pp |
| 0.6-0.7 | 4 | 63.8% | 25.0% | -38.8pp |
| 0.7-0.8 | 2 | 76.0% | 50.0% | -26.0pp |
| 0.8-0.9 | 1 | 88.6% | 100.0% | +11.4pp |
| 0.9-1.0 | 0 | — | — | — |