HISTORICAL ANALYSIS · 2025
Backtest results
The model did not beat the historical break-even rate at −110. Historical performance does not establish this week’s win probability.
ATS measures covering the spread. MAE is mean absolute margin error in points; lower is better. Binomial p measures evidence against a 50% cover-rate baseline, not the probability a pick will win.
Backtest results
ATS ACCURACY
50.5%
MODEL MAE
12.83
MARKET MAE
12.03
BINOM P
0.8596
break-even at -110: 52.4% · n= 511 graded (ATS) · n=516 projected (edges)
| Bucket | N | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 98 | 51.0% |
| 3-7 | 134 | 64.9% |
| 7-14 | 186 | 71.5% |
| 14+ | 98 | 92.9% |
| Bucket | N | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 231 | 51.9% |
| 3-7 | 170 | 51.2% |
| 7-14 | 101 | 43.6% |
| 14+ | 9 | 77.8% |
| Week | Matchup | Proj | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San José State @ Nevada | -10.4 | +45.0 |
| 11 | San Diego State @ Hawai'i | -14.9 | +32.0 |
| 8 | Old Dominion @ James Madison | -5.2 | +36.0 |
| 10 | Fresno State @ Boise State | +17.7 | -23.0 |
| 10 | Arizona @ Colorado | +4.1 | -35.0 |
| 6 | Boston College @ Pittsburgh | +2.1 | +41.0 |
| 7 | Old Dominion @ Marshall | -13.3 | +24.0 |
| 7 | Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State | -9.3 | +28.0 |
| 7 | South Florida @ North Texas | +10.2 | -27.0 |
| 7 | Rice @ UTSA | +10.9 | +48.0 |
| 7 | Iowa @ Wisconsin | -0.5 | -37.0 |
| 14 | Fresno State @ San José State | +8.4 | -27.0 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts | -6.8 | -42.0 |
| 10 | James Madison @ Texas State | +3.1 | -32.0 |
| 8 | UTSA @ North Texas | +2.9 | +38.0 |