A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Miami (OH) RedHawks is the highest-rated team in the MAC at #81 nationally. The profile is an above average defense (#48) paired with a poor offense (#111). Schedule math puts the season at 8.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.4. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati). The season turns on 1 close game: Western Michigan.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-7 | 6-3 | #82 | #114 | #54 | #16 |
Chuck Martin — year 13, 72-74 career.
OC: Gus Ragland (NEW)
DC: Bill Brechin
Ragland former Redhawks QB promoted to OC; Brechin avg 43.8 def SP+ since 2022; Martin most proven MAC coach
49% overall, ranked #84 nationally.
Offense 45% · Defense 52%
127 returning starts, 17 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Pittsburgh | #41 / +6.5 | -11.9 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Holy Cross | FCS | +24.6 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | -9.9 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +10.8 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +12.9 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +25.5 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +19.1 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | +7.0 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | +11.5 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-10 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | +13.2 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-17 | @ Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | +14.7 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-24 | @ Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | +1.8 | 56% | Swing |
2.16
expected wins across 4 games
Pittsburgh, Holy Cross, Cincinnati, UConn
3.42
expected wins across 4 games
Bowling Green, Massachusetts, Akron, Central Michigan
3.07
expected wins across 4 games
Buffalo, Ohio, Kent State, Western Michigan
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Thomas Gotkowski vs David McComb vs Caleb Heavner
battle (3-way) limited sample
Gotkowski: 575 pass yds as redshirt frosh; McComb: Kansas transfer; Heavner: Fort Hays State D2 transfer; no clear spring winner
Rodney Nelson (RB, from Monmouth)
1802 rush yds 18 TDs; 3 200-yd games including back-to-back; will run behind most proven OL in conference; surefire star
Martin Era · 27-15
2023-25: 27-15 (.643) 69.7 avg SP+; 3 straight MAC title game appearances; 2014-15: 5-19 (.208) 120.0 avg; 2016-22: 40-40 (.500) 93.9 avg
Def Brechin · 43.8
Avg defensive SP+ ranking of 43.8 since Brechin hired in 2022; despite portal losses; awfully impressive
Buckley Surge
Buckley last 4 games: 67 carries 570 yds (8.5 ypc) 6 TDs vs first 10: 112 carries 433 (3.9) 3 TDs; WMU 33 PPG when over 5.0 ypc
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 24 | Miami at CMU | Back-to-back CMU opportunities; title race insertion; Chippewas play only 1 team above 68th all year |
| Nov. 24 | Miami at WMU | Two most likely title game participants playing week before title game; could be huge elimination game; scheduling quirk |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (calibrated in analysis/06_power_ratings.ipynb). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.